brian0918 wrote:You sure the uptick in 90% and .999 listings on ebay isn't just from the fakes flooding in from China? I could see guys with very little feedback buying a bunch to make a quick profit. I hope you're testing everything you're buying - weight, dimensions, magnet slide.
neilgin1 wrote:everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths
pennypicker wrote:neilgin1 wrote:everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths
Love that line.
neilgin1 wrote:that's what my gut instinct tells me. BUT.....to look at the other side, the global economy is a nightmare, teetering on a precipice, where the fall or implosion will be to much larger than Lehman 2008, which DID carry silver down to $9 a toz. There's two prime indicators I watch to show me the health of the global economy....the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of shipping activity, last I looked the other day, we were making all time lows in that index, 650....on par with 1986....I also watch Monetary Velocity (MV) the rate at which money flows thru the economy (American)....that chart is a spike down, very steep descent.
neilgin1 wrote:Now the 'black swan" MIGHT be Greece, I don't know....so if we DO implode, AND silver DOES crack, then all these guys offering rolls on Ebay will look like geniuses, and we go back down to $9 a toz silver, but have you noticed in the last month or so, on the board, that these "bear raids" on both Au and Ag, aren't succeeding as much as they did in prior years?...PLUS from all we've been reading, physical demand GLOBALLY has been VERY robust.
one more point, silver and gold in many foreign currencies is trading at all times highs.
neilgin1 wrote:Now I consider myself fairly clever, (although I can frequently be called a "dunceski) but i'm just one middle class guy, (who has got out of the urban/suburban/exurban areas, and live in the sticks) and i'll tell ya, ...for the life of me, I cant figure out what the "game" is, except to say that everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths....no joke.
neilgin1 wrote:about 4 days ago, after market close, I was sitting on my couch, looking out at a snow covered pasture, and it hit me, World War Three has already started....not the total blaze of such a conflict, but the kindling has been lit. Y'know, I could go into detail, but you guys can read the signs.
I believe we hit a bottom in PM's, and I believe we are quite near a nasty world conflict, that could impact our beautiful country, though I do hope beyond hope, it doesn't devolve into the "unthinkable".
okay I said enough....n
neilgin1 wrote:I use Ebay for any purchases I might make in the Ag.
I know some guys here, despise Ebay, and I appreciate that, we all have our own methods.
I come from a pit trading background, thru the 80's and 90's, was on the trading floor during the 87 crash, was on the floor during many a squeeze, and protracted bull/bear markets in the ag markets, that I specialized in, both specs and hedgers, and I noticed this:
lets say we were in a bear market, and she started flatlining for a good spell. Then you would see "paper" (trades from off floor traders) come in heavy on the sell side, but guys in the pit would snap up these sell orders...very quietly, not a lot of noise, just quiet accumulation of whatever commodity was in this condition.
(oh btw, side note, as of 2 July, the CME announced that all open outcry pit trading will END...there's about 300 traders and clerks left in Chicago, and 75 in NY....everything will be done electronically, just one more sign of how WRONG things have gotten, but that's a conversation for another time or maybe never.)
let me go back to my original posit....when you saw this capitulation, lets say on the sell side, with a little questioning and digging, you could ascertain the "quality" of the selling, and if it was the "widow and orphan" crowd, it was a good chance the market had bottomed.
Now I keep my eye on the silver roll offerings on Ebay, both 90's and .999's (or .9999's) and in the last two weeks, I've noriced a very definite uptick in the number of both quality rolls of 90's (and ASE's) but they're NOT coming from the online stores, and if they are, it smells like the dealer paid the melt, and is offering +7-14 over melt for the 90's, and +$3 to $5 over the "board" for .999 ASE's.
its pronounced this uptick in offerings, you see lots of 90's, very frequently 63's and 64's, lots of Washington and Kennedy's. You could say, "how do you know?"......kind of intuition, because i'll see a guy with maybe 200 stars, cluster offer 4 rolls of say 2008 ASE's with a buy it now AND a best offer.....almost like they're tired of waiting for the pop,and MIGHT need to raise cash...I don't know, but my gut tells me, that after the first crash, Lehman 2008, they were introduced to Ag, picked up silver, sat on it for 7 years, look at the board at 17, and think "eff it, this is going nowhere, all the things I read about PM's being the place to be as an investment are bunk, I need cash, I cant wait".
that's what my gut instinct tells me. BUT.....to look at the other side, the global economy is a nightmare, teetering on a precipice, where the fall or implosion will be to much larger than Lehman 2008, which DID carry silver down to $9 a toz. There's two prime indicators I watch to show me the health of the global economy....the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of shipping activity, last I looked the other day, we were making all time lows in that index, 650....on par with 1986....I also watch Monetary Velocity (MV) the rate at which money flows thru the economy (American)....that chart is a spike down, very steep descent.
Now the 'black swan" MIGHT be Greece, I don't know....so if we DO implode, AND silver DOES crack, then all these guys offering rolls on Ebay will look like geniuses, and we go back down to $9 a toz silver, but have you noticed in the last month or so, on the board, that these "bear raids" on both Au and Ag, aren't succeeding as much as they did in prior years?...PLUS from all we've been reading, physical demand GLOBALLY has been VERY robust.
one more point, silver and gold in many foreign currencies is trading at all times highs.
Now I consider myself fairly clever, (although I can frequently be called a "dunceski) but i'm just one middle class guy, (who has got out of the urban/suburban/exurban areas, and live in the sticks) and i'll tell ya, ...for the life of me, I cant figure out what the "game" is, except to say that everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths....no joke.
about 4 days ago, after market close, I was sitting on my couch, looking out at a snow covered pasture, and it hit me, World War Three has already started....not the total blaze of such a conflict, but the kindling has been lit. Y'know, I could go into detail, but you guys can read the signs.
I believe we hit a bottom in PM's, and I believe we are quite near a nasty world conflict, that could impact our beautiful country, though I do hope beyond hope, it doesn't devolve into the "unthinkable".
sad thing is, it didn't have to be this way, but what can you do?.....except of course, plot a course to insulate as best as one can.
okay I said enough....n
Morsecode wrote:pennypicker wrote:neilgin1 wrote:everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths
Love that line.
Yes, and several others.
Neil, keep posting.
johnbrickner wrote:Thank you Neil for your thoughts and ideas that are the result of your awareness and life experiences. Seeing the world thru your eyes give my own a better vision of what's down the line.neilgin1 wrote:that's what my gut instinct tells me. BUT.....to look at the other side, the global economy is a nightmare, teetering on a precipice, where the fall or implosion will be to much larger than Lehman 2008, which DID carry silver down to $9 a toz. There's two prime indicators I watch to show me the health of the global economy....the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of shipping activity, last I looked the other day, we were making all time lows in that index, 650....on par with 1986....I also watch Monetary Velocity (MV) the rate at which money flows thru the economy (American)....that chart is a spike down, very steep descent.
All true and all pointing to deflation. Which also makes me wonder how we could possibly have an improving economy as shown with an increase in jobs and in take home pay. Sorry, I'm not seeing it here in upstate NY. And globally, things are worse than they are here, no doubt. Failure to see the inflation (let's not debate the numbers here) is a probable reason to sell off some PMs. Especially if you can still slice a small profit off it.neilgin1 wrote:Now the 'black swan" MIGHT be Greece, I don't know....so if we DO implode, AND silver DOES crack, then all these guys offering rolls on Ebay will look like geniuses, and we go back down to $9 a toz silver, but have you noticed in the last month or so, on the board, that these "bear raids" on both Au and Ag, aren't succeeding as much as they did in prior years?...PLUS from all we've been reading, physical demand GLOBALLY has been VERY robust.
one more point, silver and gold in many foreign currencies is trading at all times highs.
Even today (according to Kitco) about 1/2 of the decrease in gold price was from strengthening of the dollar. And so we are seeing a flight to safety via the U$D. And while I have been thinking about selling on some "highs," I've not and don't intend to except to maybe move some to a higher quality Ag/AU, as you already only do. The implosion can't be ruled out but, I don't see it as Greece. There is to much focus on Greece. A black swan is something you are not expecting. We have a lot of expectation of Greece, one way or the other. It could very well be currency failure but I'd pose a guess of the Euro from the periphery nations shedding it, much to disbelief of both the US and China.neilgin1 wrote:Now I consider myself fairly clever, (although I can frequently be called a "dunceski) but i'm just one middle class guy, (who has got out of the urban/suburban/exurban areas, and live in the sticks) and i'll tell ya, ...for the life of me, I cant figure out what the "game" is, except to say that everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths....no joke.
Sociopaths LOL, yea true it's no joke but, I'm reading a book right now that poses the argument that as those in power in the Empire gain ever more power, their behavior will continue to devolve into psychological and sociological pathologies. Which means they are already displaying such behavior. You just happen be aware, Neil. I'll have to edit this later when I find the source to better reflect what I'm talking about.neilgin1 wrote:about 4 days ago, after market close, I was sitting on my couch, looking out at a snow covered pasture, and it hit me, World War Three has already started....not the total blaze of such a conflict, but the kindling has been lit. Y'know, I could go into detail, but you guys can read the signs.
I believe we hit a bottom in PM's, and I believe we are quite near a nasty world conflict, that could impact our beautiful country, though I do hope beyond hope, it doesn't devolve into the "unthinkable".
okay I said enough....n
The deflation and falling currencies are more obvious, so this is spoken like a true contrarian. If true, then the greatest Empire in all history will be up to it's elbows in it. And it's because we are the greatest Empire in all history that we will be greatly involved. It's what Empires do. Additionally, if the deflation and depressed currencies are the gas on the fire to be the cause then continued stacking and accumulation of quality PMs thru the drop in price IS the right move.
As things continue to deteriorate, the rest of the world will seek continued safety in the U$D, but as our involvement causes our own situation to deteriorate the final flight to the safety of PMs will happen. At this point, you'd better be in a self-sustained community/region if it is lucky enough to pass unscathed.
neilgin1 wrote:in the what?...last year?...took me online profile down 90%, this is only forum I've "kept", and a spooky thing happened about 4 hours ago, AFTER I wrote the OP....it never happened before on this laptop.....when I went on two sites, the Guardian, and one other I forget, a warning came up from the bottom of the screen, "the website is trying to find your location"....and asking me if that's okay"
whats that?...i'm not trying to make myself more than I am, but that was the first time in a long time, I wrote about HALF of what I feel, and then I get that?...."where's my location?"
neilgin1 wrote:S-Stack, you're in the sticks too!
only place to be....imo.
I would respond to the topic of the coming war, buts it late, and i'm "tarred", so instead, this song is for YOU, and others that claim its "message".
I know I've posted before, but its one of my "anthems"....enjoy and sleep well, n.
68Camaro wrote:Andy Hoffman's latest audio blog - "The Big One Has Started - Protect Yourself Now!"
68Camaro wrote:Andy Hoffman's latest audio blog - "The Big One Has Started - Protect Yourself Now!"
Engineer wrote:Rather than a rush for the exits, I see people stacking. Group buys are filling up fast with people demanding more.
But I have seen a number of Canadians trading based on the weakness in their Dollar. If I you expected it to bounce up again with higher oil prices, selling some now (or holding off on purchases) to short the USD could be a good play.
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