Realcent.org

DOW -608

S&P -84


Burning down the house!

dow erased all 2018 gains

largest daily drop in the nasdaq in over 7 years

some folks gotta be nervous

Put in perspective the Dow would have to lose another 3rd to be flat relative to gold. The market is still over priced. It would have to lose 75% of current price to get down to where people should freak, but they will freak way before then. The feds will buy the market out like Japan before they let it take a natural free fall. We don't have a natural free market anymore so historical predictions have little value in that type of down market.

aloneibreak wrote:dow erased all 2018 gains

largest daily drop in the nasdaq in over 7 years

some folks gotta be nervous

Do they mean largest daily point drop or percentage drop on the NAZ? Big difference...

Regarding folks getting nervous there are plenty of old-timers who remember three big crashes that occurred in October- 1929, 1987 and 1997. Let me modify that a bit- they know of the 1929 crash but don't remember it because they aren't old enough. And of course the fact that we've got tons of companies announcing earnings complicates things.

But if you compare this to 2008 we are nowhere near the conditions we had leading up to the selloff in 2008. Interest rates were much higher then. Money markets often paid over 5% leading up to the 2008 crash- now those same money markets are often around 2%. Lending standards on homes were much lower then. Remember all the Liar's loans where the lender didn't care because they were going to repackage the loan and sell it with a bunch of other junk to another financial institution? And they were able to get the credit agencies to assign those junk loans (because they were packaged) a AAA rating! There were lots of bailouts needed- perhaps the earliest big one was Bear Stearns in March, 2008. Six months later Lehman Bros. shocked the world with their bankruptcy. Others (like insurance giant AIG) demanded bailouts- after an initial demand for $100 billion (or else they'd go bankrupt), AIG got something like $150 billion from the government.

I agree that interest rates going up makes houses less affordable, but this economy should be strong enough to withstand normal interest rates of, say, 3 to 3 1/2%. Unemployment numbers are low (even though govt. numbers can be misleading) and wages are rising (especially among those with low paying jobs), so that implies that for some people income is going up enough so that they can afford to buy homes even with rising mortgage interest rates.

Some, like Trump, want lower interest rates than we have now. Rates, even now, are artificially low. To take them back down again would be a disservice to senior citizens who have been savers and need to get some kind of return from the money they have on deposit at the bank or their brokerage firm(s).

One wildcard that nobody is talking about is this- nobody is discussing the new simplified tax return forms that we will have this year and how much we will save on taxes. If this really is a "wow" moment for lots of people when they do their taxes, that will help increase confidence early next year. And that increased confidence could lead to more money going into the market. If it merely saves me time in assembling everything needed to put together my relatively complicated tax return, that will be a welcome change.

Recyclersteve wrote:<snip> One wildcard that nobody is talking about is this- nobody is discussing the new simplified tax return forms that we will have this year and how much we will save on taxes. <snip>

Been around long enough to say "I'll believe it when I see it". Course it helps to have that attitude when you were born in Missouri. I may also say I was wrong. Wrong in that at this time I'm still not sure our President has The Common Guy's best interests at heart and I will possibly change my mind.

Recyclersteve wrote:

aloneibreak wrote:dow erased all 2018 gains

largest daily drop in the nasdaq in over 7 years

some folks gotta be nervous

Do they mean largest daily point drop or percentage drop on the NAZ? Big difference...

oh definately

and it was point drop

DOW -298

S&P -47

The house is on fire, but most rooms are still intact.

The market is a bit oversold now, so I expect some relief rally(s) next week. November is historically a positive month for the market. Mid-term elections coming up too. Interesting times.

I agree hoarder, just look at Thursday's rally, earnings are good, sometimes momentum wins over and the sheep all run the same way. Some say it's a midterm thing, oh heck these days they'll say anything, talk has become so cheap. We've had similar selloffs in 2015, 2016, back in February, with blow offs like we get how can the big boys not want to take profits yet buy back in at lower levels. I'm sure they get bonuses for winning and timing the market. Look at the trading volume in equities just the last two years, compared to previous, brokers must be raking it in. Rates are still so low, money is still, so easy. Fed is just monitoring overheating and inflation, fine tuning things, looking for that soft landing, or who knows, lol, future recession, debt flush write downs, banks are still giving it away too. Gotta make the debt and bonds look good too, keep rolling it over, the show must go on. Tesla's are selling good, even though they are just about bottom of the barrel for quality according to consumer reports, not sure if only the rich can afford them or if a Tesla is even a luxury vehicle, but until the big boys start to pullback on spending, it's full speed ahead.

Okay, there's your stock market rally. However, the volume has been decreasing over the past couple days while the market rallied... that is bearish. Also, the Wed morning futures gap-up is bearish.

I think the interest rate temper tantrum is over, but China trade deal news will still have short term effects.

Republicans win the majority in mid-terms, the market rallies. Dems win majority, market will fall again.

Silver up 3.5% today... that's unusual. Probably won't last long though. For PMs to take off we are going to need a major negative event to take place. Then again, JP Morgan has been accumulating millions of ounces of silver (150-700 million, but the actual amount is debatable) over the past 6-7 years. Do they know something we don't?

Interesting times. Stay frosty.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: volume has been decreasing over the past couple days while the market rallied... that is bearish.

Totally agree.

Okay, here we go... the Mid-terms are tonight.

Reds maintain the majority, market goes up.

Blues gain majority, market goes down.

I'm going to be actively trading the ES tonight while watching the results at the same time.

DOW -800

S&P -90

This is what a bear market looks like, and we have a lot further to go. They'll be many dead-cat bounce rallies along the way down. I predict S&P 2000-2100, then a period of consolidation, then all the way down to the 1600-1700 level. That will be a very good time to buy and/or go all in with your 401k. I saw this coming and put my entire 401k into stable fund at the end of September.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:DOW -800

S&P -90

This is what a bear market looks like, and we have a lot further to go. They'll be many dead-cat bounce rallies along the way down. I predict S&P 2000-2100, then a period of consolidation, then all the way down to the 1600-1700 level. That will be a very good time to buy and/or go all in with your 401k. I saw this coming and put my entire 401k into stable fund at the end of September.

With all due respect, we aren't even close to bear market conditions which are typically taken to be a 20% drop in a roughly two month period of time. So, down 5,000 or so points on the Dow in less than, say, 10 weeks and then you've got my attention. All it takes is for the tariff situation with China to be resolved (really resolved, not just a rumor or parties agreeing to back away from action for a few months) and watch the pop that many stocks (and the market) will get. The shorts will be screaming and scrambling when that happens. I know intimately what it is like to short stocks. I've done it a few thousand times with my own personal money over the years.

Recyclersteve wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:DOW -800

S&P -90

This is what a bear market looks like, and we have a lot further to go. They'll be many dead-cat bounce rallies along the way down. I predict S&P 2000-2100, then a period of consolidation, then all the way down to the 1600-1700 level. That will be a very good time to buy and/or go all in with your 401k. I saw this coming and put my entire 401k into stable fund at the end of September.

With all due respect, we aren't even close to bear market conditions which are typically taken to be a 20% drop in a roughly two month period of time. So, down 5,000 or so points on the Dow in less than, say, 10 weeks and then you've got my attention. All it takes is for the tariff situation with China to be resolved (really resolved, not just a rumor or parties agreeing to back away from action for a few months) and watch the pop that many stocks (and the market) will get. The shorts will be screaming and scrambling when that happens. I know intimately what it is like to short stocks. I've done it a few thousand times with my own personal money over the years.

Bear markets always begin with downturns. We are at the very beginning. That +500 point tariff relief rally faded very quickly... the yield curve inverted... Positive earnings have not done anything for the market... housing market turning downward... PE's are way too high... Personal and government debt levels are outrageous... 9 years without any major correction, and those previous 9 years was a rally totally precipitated by multiple liquidity injections by the Fed. These are only a few reasons why it MUST crash. The only positives the market has now is Fed speak (not raising rates) and this tariff nonsense, which IMO is already priced in. Algos are simply reacting and trading news headlines. It won't go straight down, nothing ever does.

I'm a political atheist, but I find it amusing how Trump took credit for the stock market gains since he's been in office... that may be the biggest blunder he ever made. Remember that candidate Trump said the market was in a "big, fat, ugly bubble". Trump is the next Herbert Hoover.

The market was down Tuesday because it is closed today. A mid-week closure spooked the traders. Will up up again on Thursday.

IdahoCopper wrote:The market was down Tuesday because it is closed today. A mid-week closure spooked the traders. Will up up again on Thursday.

There will be many of these along the way down.

Always wondered where the term "dead cat bounce" came from...

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: Bear markets always begin with downturns. We are at the very beginning.

the yield curve inverted... YIELD CURVE OFTEN INVERTS 1-1 1/2 YEARS AHEAD OF A RECESSION.

Personal and government debt levels are outrageous... THEY HAVE BEEN FOR DECADES.

9 years without any major correction, and those previous 9 years was a rally totally precipitated by multiple liquidity injections by the Fed. TOTALLY AGREE.

It won't go straight down, nothing ever does. TOTALLY AGREE.

I'm a political atheist, but I find it amusing how Trump took credit for the stock market gains since he's been in office... GEORGE H.W. BUSH WAS TOO HUMBLE TO TAKE CREDIT FOR EVERYTHING- TRUMP COULD LEARN A FEW THINGS...

My comments on the above are in bold following the initial comments. All that said, I think it is pretty bold to predict that this is the beginning of the correction. There are billionaires worldwide with resources, friends and agendas that we cannot begin to grasp. They want to manipulate the markets (some up/some down). Predicting human nature (especially those who don't even speak the same language as you) is especially difficult.

Example: I remember not that long ago when virtually everyone in the U.S. was shocked that someone could commit suicide in front of a group of people in order to kill a few others.

I think it is safe to say (like him or not) that Trump can be quite unpredictable at times.

My point: Don't be so sure this is the beginning of a big pullback. Back on 9/15/08 it took 3 sizable triggers on the same day to make it happen. Those three: 1) Lehman Bros. bankruptcy; 2) BofA buying Merrill Lynch and MER stock only went up 1 cent a share that day; and 3) Insurance giant AIG said they needed $100 billion from the govt. or they too would declare bankruptcy- they ended up getting roughly $150 billion. To many all three of those coming out of nowhere on the same day was just too much for the markets to handle.

All that said, I'd love it if I could be a fly on the wall inside some of New York City's better restaurants to hear talk among traders and hedge funds.

Wed night, futures dumping again...

DOW -350

S&P -35

Ouch.

Recyclersteve wrote:
My point: Don't be so sure this is the beginning of a big pullback. Back on 9/15/08 it took 3 sizable triggers on the same day to make it happen. Those three: 1) Lehman Bros. bankruptcy; 2) BofA buying Merrill Lynch and MER stock only went up 1 cent a share that day; and 3) Insurance giant AIG said they needed $100 billion from the govt. or they too would declare bankruptcy- they ended up getting roughly $150 billion. To many all three of those coming out of nowhere on the same day was just too much for the markets to handle.

No way to be 100% sure. Those problems were never truly fixed, just papered over. So many other negative things are converging... it's time. So glad I have no long exposure at all. 401k has been in all cash since early September.

I've been day trading the futures market for supplemental income for many years. The last 2 months of ES trades (all shorts) have just about topped my annual salary. More PMs, more ammo.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: JP Morgan has been accumulating millions of ounces of silver (150-700 million, but the actual amount is debatable) over the past 6-7 years. Do they know something we don't?
.

The thing about JP Morgan is that it is pretty well known and has veen for 1-2 years now. So I’m thinking there is something else (like an even bigger short position?) going on behind the scenes.

Recyclersteve wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: JP Morgan has been accumulating millions of ounces of silver (150-700 million, but the actual amount is debatable) over the past 6-7 years. Do they know something we don't?
.

The thing about JP Morgan is that it is pretty well known and has veen for 1-2 years now. So I’m thinking there is something else (like an even bigger short position?) going on behind the scenes.

Interesting take. I hope the Ag price does fall. I would love to grab more at $10-12 or even lower. Just icing on the cake for me at this point.

I think JPM is accumulating so much silver because they know the price is going to skyrocket at some point in the future. Follow the silver (i.e. money). Funny how the Hunt brothers were chastised for hoarding silver in the late 70's... the SEC and US government went after them for it. Nothing happens to these banks for hoarding silver because they ARE the US government.

Recyclersteve wrote:Always wondered where the term "dead cat bounce" came from...

"The idea being that even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a great height." Apparently first citation generally regarded (I checked several phrase origin websites and they all basically said the same thing) as Dec. 1985 in FT:

https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/dea ... ounce.html

Ouch. Another big down day for the stock market.

DOW -558
S&P -63

If the Fed raises rates again, that's going to kill the market. At some point they will likely unleash QE 4.

Major support level on the S&P is the 2600 area. If it breaks/closes below that, next stop is 2000-2100.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=w1

I don't know what the Canary will be (of course the signs will be "obvious" in hindsight) but the USD will need to crash down to the lower 70s to start then continue on down as confidence evaporates in the best horse in the glue factory. Otherwise it's just a recoverable recession where recovery will continue to be based on zirp and endless money printing.

When/ if that happens we're then in a new world. We've never been in a place where a completely intertwined global economy that was built on paper crashed together all at once. Unfortunately that type of thing tends to create war, revolution, inserrection and foster dictatorships. And the next event of that type will be even more exaggerated than ever before.