Silver - $27 going to Zero! Call your boss..beg for job back

[68Camaro]

Gold usually reacts immediately and in proportion to USD changes. (except when it doesn't but that gets into the fact that pricing is currently determined by the paper futures market and is subject to those games). But today gold is tracking within 0.1% of the USD.

Silver usually overreacts on initial changes relative to gold by 2x

[beauanderos]

68Cam.....And water is wet.

Still, any thoughts about the result of this trend? Sub-$15?

ALWAYS keep dry powder... for two reasons. One, so that emergencies will never force you to sell at a loss... ever.
Two, so that you have money to splurge on killer buys that crop up unexpectedly (despite all the wisdom of prognosticators) from time to time.

Even if you thing the price has bottomed? Just spend half of your stash.

And... yeah... if they can force the price down to $15, they'll do it. Even if it will be very short-lived. Good luck finding product at that price
without compensatory premiums, tho.

[InfleXion]

If the obvious answer is correct in that the dollar is gaining in strength due to instability in other currencies (India), while also taking into consideration that metals are substantially higher when priced in that currency and likely getting their share of safe haven demand, I'd consider any dips at this point a gift in being able to acquire a rising asset for a falling price.

Since silver is mined as a byproduct the supply and demand picture doesn't really matter until and unless physical demand actually exceeds physical supply. So I wouldn't rule out lower prices, but as we've seen in the past those lower prices must consolidate before we'll see premiums drop accordingly as new supply comes to market at the new price.

It seems to me however that volatility is the norm, particularly with the election. It doesn't look like price consolidation is on the horizon IMO. Volatility is essentially bullish, because there's a lot more room to grow than there is to shrink when the price is already near cost of production.

[68Camaro]

Gold -0.84%
USD +0.84%

By end of the day, today's move was strictly the strengthening dollar.

[68Camaro]

Dollar is at a modern all-time high (at least for past 10 years); hasn't been this high since 2004, when the USD was on the decline from the 2000 intermediate high (peaked briefly at ~113). Gold ain't doing too bad given that the USD is up >30% over the minimum during that period. But, if the USD continues to go up to the year 2000 number, as spencer thinks, then we could expect another ~10% drop back down to ~1080 ish. (While at the same time gold as measured in other currencies could continue to see new highs.)

[neilgin1]

LB! Good to see you back posting again. We missed ya!

I missed you ALL.......most fondly, LB

[neilgin1]

Neil is one of my top five. He posts.....I read.

If I am not educated....I'm at least entertained. Dude makes me happy.

Doc, Penny, 68, OB, and any other brother, you all make me feel so welcome, THAT is the blessing!!... AND, you honor MUCH MORE than I deserve, but in the darkness of Saturday morn, its a good feeling to be welcomed, I can tell you that.

68's concern over the dollar is well founded, its trading crazy up, JUST like it did during the summer and early fall of 2008, right before the "Lehman crash"...so..dot dot dot.....a cause for concern, and Doc Rodee, you KNOW I think you are a Ag artist of the first rank.

just a little thought, the "transition"...between NOW and Jan 20, God only knows, what sort of "black swan" will come swimming on the pond we love, the United States of America, methinks, the TPTB, will hold this stuff "up" until President-elect Trump is sworn in, THEN "they" dump it all, and blame it on President Trump.....BUT, who really knows?....I just thank God, I am not in those "councils of high power", or was CURSED with enormous "wealth"...to me, REAL "wealth" is the greeting I got from you all, and the simple Faith, such as, "everything gon be alright". in His Name, much love to you all, n.

[68Camaro]

Saw bits of waterworld on tv 6 or 8 weeks again as I was channel surfing and it happened to be the scene where you were on the quad 50s going crazy. Ha! Always makes me laugh.

[neilgin1]

Saw bits of waterworld on tv 6 or 8 weeks again as I was channel surfing and it happened to be the scene where you were on the quad 50s going crazy. Ha! Always makes me laugh.

"68"...my brother!

you just made ME laugh, and if I may share some stories about that all, I HOPE the forum wont get mad at me for going off topic...OR seeming to "toot my horn" , which i'm NOT, as I was just being swept along, and in the right place, at the right time.

me banging away with the quad 50's was the only time in my life, where after 7 hours of almost constant gunplay, I quietly asked if a stuntman could spell me for the long shots, as my bell was RUNG..i was seeing double, and found myself just laughing like a maniac for no reason, etc etc etc......they did, just so I could settle myself, and retake my position.

tracking back, the ONLY reason I was sitting there, in those quad .50's was because the director and writer, Kevin Reynolds (a really GOOD man) and I had been scheduled for a 10-15 minute meeting, which turned into an hour and 15 minute DEEP discussion.....why?...well, I knew that Kevin had wrote the original play called "Ten Soldiers", which the giant of screenwriting John Milius bought, and him and Kevin wrote the original "Red Dawn" (1984) which had a HUGE impact on me and my brother, so we got into what "Red Dawn" meant, kinda inside baseball...I NEVER got to meet Milius, and I was on the trading floor in 1983, so I wasn't even in the mix to be in Red Dawn, I was 23 then, and when I met Kevin in 94, I was 34, so.....but I also lauded Kevin for the brilliant film, "The Beast", which Kevin wrote and directed...brilliant film about a soviet t-62 crew caught behind the lines in Afghanistan...this film got "lost" in an intermural pissing match, between Columbia pictures exec's, which is a shame, coz the film is 5 star material....and I told him this.....not to kiss his rear, but I always believe that, high or low, to encourage your fellow man or woman, in truth, is a GIFT we give to each other...so it was a discussion I NEVER forgot, and Kevin gave me a "gift"...I was only sposed to be there in Hawaii for 7 days, which turned into 3 months...

that said, I always was sad that I never got to meet or work for Mr. Milius, as our worldviews are VERY similar, in the "left wingy" world of the entertainment industry, John Milius was HATED, ....BUT, all his scripts were so darn GOOD, that the power brokers HAD to buy them, coz they MADE MONEY. here's the trailer for the documentary "Milius"


and here's the ONLY trailer made for Kevin Reynolds, "The Beast"...or "The Beast of War"


both these men, Milius and Reynolds were GIANTS of film art....got to meet and work with one, Kevin, but never got to meet and work for Mr. Milius....coz I have a feeling that if I got to him in 83, and he had discerned my qualities, I would have gotten Sheens role in the original "Red Dawn", as I did later got to work with Patrick S (God rest) and we hit it off good...Patrick was a good man....but that was not to be......NOW, that whole chapter of my life ended in 2009, and I got to go back to the my home county, and I sure do thank God for that....let me close with two scenes, first, one of the best bits of Apocalypse Now, which Mr. Milius wrote, and a 23 min doc on the "making" of "Red Dawn" (1984)......I hope all is well with you and kin , my friend "68"....."crazy horse five out"
(the next 2 min scene just MOVES me, and I cant figure out WHY)


and this 23 minutes is well spent...its good stuff.

[Treetop]

Just a GUT feeling not reading the market at all, but I expect the dollar to be up until Trump takes his newly won seat. Then maybe it falls. Perhaps it is pessimism but I expect TPTB to want to make trump look bad. Many of his policies question the entire global power dynamic "they" spent decades building. The claimed reasons for the rise in markets and the dollar feel more flimsy then usual to me, but keep in mind this is NOT my forte, this is mostly gut feeling so please base no decisions on any thing I say in this realm.

Ive never seen the media react to a new president like this scrutinizing him the way they are. I do think much of it might back fire though. Take for instance the fact even without congress he can change the way ICE does their job, if crime rates drop what are they going to say? It goes on and on like this for most issues Trump pushed. If he is what he said he was the mainline dynamic will be bleeding out in the streets no matter what the media pushes. IF. .....

There are 10 democrat senate seats up for grabs in state Trump won in 2018 if he is what he claimed to be they are in trouble imo. When you include federal and state officials rupublicans never held this much power in their entire history and democrats never had this little since the height of the civil war. While Im not really a rupiblican imo this is a very good thing, as compared to the democrats current globalist no borders whiney entitled nothing local stance.

Whatever happens I of course think silver is still an amazing long term buy and no doubt gold as well. Although are any of you watching the EM drive? NASA now verified the prototype works. Except they are pretending they are working with the main incarnation of it and ignoring later versions that atleast claim pounds of thrust. Its possible we are on the verge of mining space and if so platinum and gold are theoretically common. silver being worth much less isnt likely to be mined anytime soon even if the claims of better versions of the EM drive are legit. If the most advanced claims of the EM drive are legit we are on the verge of a new age. Only the earliest versions have been verified by sources most would trust.

[misteroman]

I am having such a hard time not selling right now and just buying back next month. I truly believe it will touch 14.xx middle to end of December. I can sell local for a Lil better then can buy on back on here or BS usually so we're talking about 15% or so difference.
Very frustrating to say the least.

[beauanderos]

I am having such a hard time not selling right now and just buying back next month. I truly believe it will touch 14.xx middle to end of December. I can sell local for a Lil better then can buy on back on here or BS usually so we're talking about 15% or so difference.
Very frustrating to say the least.

If you feel that way why don't you take 25% of your stash and try that scheme?

[IdahoCopper]

Its all about the premiums. When spot drops quickly, prems jack up. The lower spot drops, the longer it takes for prems to drop.

The actual metal price (spot + prem) drops slowly and rises quickly. And prems ensure a floor price in the medium term. The floor price drops very slowly.

[68Camaro]

Just a GUT feeling not reading the market at all, but I expect the dollar to be up until Trump takes his newly won seat. Then maybe it falls. Perhaps it is pessimism but I expect TPTB to want to make trump look bad. ...

I'm not sure how much of it would be purposeful, but I could believe that the markets crash after he gets in, if support for them is yanked. The markets are heavily supported by government purchases, direct or indirect, at this point. I think it's telling that Jamie Dimon doesn't want the Treasury job (reportedly) - and I suspect it's because he realizes it's a job with little power at this point and it's the wrong time in history to be taking it.

Ive never seen the media react to a new president like this scrutinizing him the way they are.

GIven the way they've been for the past 12 months, no surprise. I think much of America now sees that there is no balance in the media; the election pulled the last of any cover off of that for anyone capable of rational thought (though I realize that are many that don't qualify for that).

Although are any of you watching the EM drive? NASA now verified the prototype works. Except they are pretending they are working with the main incarnation of it and ignoring later versions that at least claim pounds of thrust. Its possible we are on the verge of mining space ...

The value of all the gold in the US vaults (presuming it is there) is ~$300 billion. The NASA budget has averaged (in constant terms) ~16 billion per year for the past 50 years, or $800 billion. Even if we knew where the gold was and it was in large enough quantity and pure enough to make sense getting it, I don't think the cost of getting into deep space (just the cost of getting out into transfer orbit) would pay off. This whole Elon Musk colonize Mars thing is a fantasy. Short of a major breakthrough in physics to some type of inexpensive FTL hyperdrive, it isn't happening. We need to focus on "colonizing" the earth. The most inhospitable place on the earth would be 10x more times more likely to be habitable and affordable than anywhere else in this solar system.

[wolvesdad]

We need to focus on "colonizing" the earth. The most inhospitable place on the earth would be 10x more times more likely to be habitable and affordable than anywhere else in this solar system.

Yes. Simply yes. Subtaranean. Antarctic. Arctic. Any place is better than this fantasy of space.

If you don't like the Antarctica, you pay an extra $2000 or $4000 and you get a boat ride and then a plane ride home.

If you don't like Mars, too bad!

[Treetop]

The value of all the gold in the US vaults (presuming it is there) is ~$300 billion. The NASA budget has averaged (in constant terms) ~16 billion per year for the past 50 years, or $800 billion. Even if we knew where the gold was and it was in large enough quantity and pure enough to make sense getting it, I don't think the cost of getting into deep space (just the cost of getting out into transfer orbit) would pay off. This whole Elon Musk colonize Mars thing is a fantasy. Short of a major breakthrough in physics to some type of inexpensive FTL hyperdrive, it isn't happening. We need to focus on "colonizing" the earth. The most inhospitable place on the earth would be 10x more times more likely to be habitable and affordable than anywhere else in this solar system.

It depends. I agree elon musk is a joke. The EM drive has proven legit though. NASA is working with the first incarnation of it, other groups claim to be on version 5 and if they are correct in what they claim it does, mining asteroids is indeed right around the corner. We do have indication of where gold and platinum is on them as well. That is the target in fact. getting to mars wont be helpful even if affordable, anytime soon. I wasnt discussing mars though. If we didnt have so many issues here on earth Id be all for trying out mars, asteroids though are another matter. If we figure out a way to mine them effectively that can help several of humanities current issues. The groups claiming to be working on the newest version of the EM drive are holding their cards close to their chest but they are among those who recently pushed for us to legally be able to mine space. However unlikely Im certainly not writing it off yet. Most of my more technical friends including you I believe told me the EM drive was nothing at first as well, but the early version of it is now verified as legit by nasa. That version wont get us to mine asteroids, it would help make satellites drastically cheaper to power though.

All but the most extreme places on earth, with the mindset of my own work are easy to support people. Atleast with food and other basic needs, perhaps not some hightech level of wealth all around.

[misteroman]

I am having such a hard time not selling right now and just buying back next month. I truly believe it will touch 14.xx middle to end of December. I can sell local for a Lil better then can buy on back on here or BS usually so we're talking about 15% or so difference.
Very frustrating to say the least.

If you feel that way why don't you take 25% of your stash and try that scheme?

Just sold 120 eagles and 190 oz in 10 oz generic bars for $18 and ounce. Putting it here on record today and seeing if I'm right come end of december!!!!

[TXBullion]

Short term anything is usually a fools game

Your odds are 50/50 relating to the price being higher or lower.

Always good to make bets with odds higher than that or where you can generate income on a bet with favorable terms

[christostock]

I am having such a hard time not selling right now and just buying back next month. I truly believe it will touch 14.xx middle to end of December. I can sell local for a Lil better then can buy on back on here or BS usually so we're talking about 15% or so difference.
Very frustrating to say the least.

If you feel that way why don't you take 25% of your stash and try that scheme?

Just sold 120 eagles and 190 oz in 10 oz generic bars for $18 and ounce. Putting it here on record today and seeing if I'm right come end of december!!!!

So perhaps you can buy the ounces back right now cheaper.
I have silver for sale at $16.85
You see a $1.15 per ounce gain!!!!

[misteroman]

I do like those 10Oz stackers but truly believe we will see 14s in next month or so.
Will pick back up then.

[knibloe]

As for me, I'll forget the selling part. I will just hold and buy more if the $14 materializes. If it hits $14 what will the premium be?

[misteroman]

At first premium will be high. Then after a week or so it will cool off.
I never sell this is just a test if you will. People always call out predictions with no skin in game. If you believe it, then believe in yourself. Selling 300 or so ounces was just an even number that I screwed up an grabbed an extra bar. Was going to try 1000 but buddy didn't have that much to spend.
So tempted to buy Chris's stuff but that would be silly right now lol

[neilgin1]

As for me, I'll forget the selling part. I will just hold and buy more if the $14 materializes. If it hits $14 what will the premium be?

$2-$6 over, depending on the whats and who's.

I wish I had Mr. Oman's stones to scalp in and out. i'm the worst short term trader on the planet. all I know is cop and lock, hold intermediate to long term, plus the way the dollar is trading, is making me more nervous than a porcupine in a balloon factory. Ag stack isn't an "investment" , its currency insurance....AND its really there for my son, coz when I shuffle off this mortal coil, I want the lad's six covered, not gonna leave him with his Johnson dangling in the wind....the boy's been taught about Hard Money.

misteroman, i'm rooting for you though, get that Ag lower.

(India is a VERY appropriate future case study, imo.....India.)

[pennypicker]

I wish I had Mr. Oman's stones to scalp in and out. i'm the worst short term trader on the planet. all I know is cop and lock, hold intermediate to long term, plus the way the dollar is trading, is making me more nervous than a porcupine in a balloon factory. Ag stack isn't an "investment" , its currency insurance....AND its really there for my son, coz when I shuffle off this mortal coil, I want the lad's six covered, not gonna leave him with his Johnson dangling in the wind....the boy's been taught about Hard Money.

Another example of why Neil is my favorite contributor on this site--his writings are always insightful, informative AND entertaining!

[CLINT-THE-GREAT]

We need to focus on "colonizing" the earth. The most inhospitable place on the earth would be 10x more times more likely to be habitable and affordable than anywhere else in this solar system.

80% of the US population lives on 20% of the land. There is alot of room in the USA for expansion. If anyone doubts that... take a trip to any of the "square" states out west. Hell I live in the 5th most populous state, Illinois, and there is nothing but miles and miles of cornfields outside my door.

-The Great