Realcent.org

CLINT-THE-GREAT wrote:

68Camaro wrote:

Treetop wrote: We need to focus on "colonizing" the earth. The most inhospitable place on the earth would be 10x more times more likely to be habitable and affordable than anywhere else in this solar system.

80% of the US population lives on 20% of the land. There is alot of room in the USA for expansion. If anyone doubts that... take a trip to any of the "square" states out west. Hell I live in the 5th most populous state, Illinois, and there is nothing but miles and miles of cornfields outside my door.

-The Great

Don't forget that that corn has function in the existence of people . Im not sure how much land each person needs to survive when you factor in consumption but something to consider...

TXBullion wrote:Don't forget that that corn has function in the existence of people . Im not sure how much land each person needs to survive when you factor in consumption but something to consider...

True, but out west there is vast amounts of nothingness, not even being used for farming

-The Great

Interest rates are on the rise.....with another .5-.75% planned for this year.

See you at $13.

Not going to bet against that in the <12 month time frame as rates increase and USD continues as best horse in the glue factory and I'll be happy to buy some $15 ASEs next year if that happens, but competing pressure from continued high deficit spending and the possible breakup of the EU (or at least demise of the euro and several major banks) along with peak gold and silver will be interesting to watch. No fiat currency has ever survived; the only question is the time frame of the demise, whether democracy will survive, and whether we will be around to see some of the transitions.

68Camaro wrote:Not going to bet against that in the <12 month time frame as rates increase and USD continues as best horse in the glue factory and I'll be happy to buy some $15 ASEs next year if that happens, but competing pressure from continued high deficit spending and the possible breakup of the EU (or at least demise of the euro and several major banks) along with peak gold and silver will be interesting to watch. No fiat currency has ever survived; the only question is the time frame of the demise, whether democracy will survive, and whether we will be around to see some of the transitions.

I tell you what Rich, when I was a kid we used to body or boogie board surf at Corona del Mar State Beach. It's at the mouth of the Newport Harbor. We'd watch how high the waves were on their way in by watching how high they were forming on the far end of the jetty. Or if you really developed an eye or it was a monster you could see it still out in the ocean making it's way in. Ever so often you'd see one bigger than the regular rollers coming in or even the wave of the day. So what I see, being where we are (on our boards, closely watching the approaching forming wave,) it's the wave of a lifetime that's going to have an incredible curl and break. We'll see what kind of ride she gives if still were around before we get called in.

Good analogy John with good visuals!

johnbrickner wrote:
I tell you what Rich, when I was a kid we used to body or boogie board surf at Corona del Mar State Beach. It's at the mouth of the Newport Harbor. We'd watch how high the waves were on their way in by watching how high they were forming on the far end of the jetty. Or if you really developed an eye or it was a monster you could see it still out in the ocean making it's way in. Ever so often you'd see one bigger than the regular rollers coming in or even the wave of the day. So what I see, being where we are (on our boards, closely watching the approaching forming wave,) it's the wave of a lifetime that's going to have an incredible curl and break. We'll see what kind of ride she gives if still were around before we get called in.

Having lived on So. Cal during my youth I would regularly body surf "The Wedge" on stormy days in Newport Beach and I can tell you first hand that when that "incredible curl and break" body slams your ass into the sand and you get up bloody and disoriented it really hurts---you know its coming...you then see it coming...but by then its too late and there's no turning back--similar to what the pain will be when the SHTF!

Actual pictures of "The Wedge"--notice the warning tower in both pictures though my buddies and I never paid it no mind:

had no idea the CA coast ever had waves that size! Was there an earthquake that day???

Tsunami!!!!

beauanderos wrote:had no idea the CA coast ever had waves that size! Was there an earthquake that day??Tsunami!!!!

Actually artificially large waves are created during a storm when the incoming waves are forced into an angle formed by a man made jetty and the natural shoreline. The waves can get very high and what's dangerous is that if you ride the wave too long (more than just a few seconds) it will literally dump you on the bare sand or worse into the rocks of the jetty wall since the waves are formed so close to the shoreline to begin with. I'll tell you I played two years of college football at middle-linebacker and I never took more of a beating as did I after a day at "The Wedge".

Wow I saw some decent sized waves in Aruba... enough that they wouldn't let us in the ocean at one point... but nothing like that.

$15.63 at the moment. I think this confirms that the "bull market of 2016" wasn't a real thing... or if it was it was very short-lived.

Pennypicker:

Thanks for the picts of the area. The State Beach is the one on the other side of the wedge. The end of the jetty on the state beach side is where I proposed to my wife and we used to open Christmas presents at the state beach on the morning of the 25th with a bottle of champagne. I started my diving career their by getting SCUBA certified by NAUI over towards the Little Corona end.

I considered ending my diving career by night diving the Wedge jetty once. A first and last time for everything. The surge was pulling my and my buddy about 4-5 feet in each direction. It was a reasonably calm night as far as waves went. Not the dumbest thing I ever did in my life but it ranks right up there say top 10. I was still young and immortal then.

Regarding silver, the only thing that's changed so far, is who our president and most his cabinet is going to be. Oh, and the resultant/altered perception of everyone watching. It's a long-term game.

68Camaro wrote:Not going to bet against that in the <12 month time frame as rates increase and USD continues as best horse in the glue factory and I'll be happy to buy some $15 ASEs next year if that happens, but competing pressure from continued high deficit spending and the possible breakup of the EU (or at least demise of the euro and several major banks) along with peak gold and silver will be interesting to watch. No fiat currency has ever survived; the only question is the time frame of the demise, whether democracy will survive, and whether we will be around to see some of the transitions.

The thing that doesn't sit well with me is the fact that the USD is getting stronger AND stocks are going up at the same time. This is counterintuitive as a stronger dollar should buy more and cheapen asset prices. The only way this is possible is that most all other (emerging market) currencies and stock markets are tanking hard. While this is a recipe for lower silver prices, it is also a recipe for contagion, and that is very bad for both the USD (government debt) and stocks (corporate debt) in spite of whatever strength they may be putting forward. I wouldn't wait until the last minute to establish a physical position just to save a few bucks.

InfleXion wrote:

68Camaro wrote:Not going to bet against that . . . whether democracy will survive, and whether we will be around to see some of the transitions.

The thing that doesn't sit well with me is the fact that the USD is getting stronger AND stocks are going up at the same time. . . . it is also a recipe for contagion, . . . I wouldn't wait until the last minute to establish a physical position just to save a few bucks.

All wise words from two who's words I highly respect. Time to look a little deeper. Thanx gentlemen, always appreciate the view. Emphasis added to original.

Which markets and currencies are you looking at here?

I was referring to the DOW and the USD. That they are correlating upward instead of offsetting is unsettling. I think the BRICS are getting the short end of it all right now, and with counter party risk that's not a positive thing in spite of all the positive spin that could be made by the West.

InfleXion wrote:I was referring to the DOW and the USD. That they are correlating upward instead of offsetting is unsettling. I think the BRICS are getting the short end of it all right now, and with counter party risk that's not a positive thing in spite of all the positive spin that could be made by the West.

Yeah - not sure what to make of it other than money is moving into the US period. And if we are truly the best place to reduce risk and put money, that's scary. Why they would do that rather than buy physical gold is another question. But overall it suggests that people in high and knowledgeable places are feeling that they need to reduce risk elsewhere: BRICS being one, Euro in general another, Yen another, India, etc. (Hard to know where to stop when making that list.)

I don't think we're viewed as the best place to put money, but as long as the US has global reserve currency status it's better than most any other nation, because they all have exposure to us already. It's kind of a chicken and the egg... we're safe(r) because of the contagion risk. Some other currencies can go down without us, but if we go down we're probably taking most of the rest with us. Although any developed nation could bring down the house of cards with all the counter party risk, but the USD will be the last to go so at least there's some buffer room there potentially to get out of a position early on.

Plus with all the money printing combined with deflation caused by the money printing (yes it's inflationary initially, which leads away from equilibrium, creating a deflationary snap back effect), we have a scenario with all this money seeking a place to live where only very large markets can absorb it. The silver market couldn't absorb that money or the silver would be gone for example. So all the ultra rich pretty much have to invest in sovereign debt or they won't have anywhere to park all the currency, which is debt... yes it's confusing, until considering that the remainder of the purpose is to prop up the system, drain the working class of buying power, and perpetuate the status quo.

That our buying power is very strong right now in contrast to a loss of buying power I just mentioned is a sign that there are cracks in the dam, as all the birds are flocking to the shore (high USD demand means it buys more as people are willing to give more to get it), but that's not a safe place to be when it floods. Not to mention how hard we get hit in the wallet with taxes to support those who aren't contributing to the welfare state, we're keeping less and less of what we make the more people who fall off the wagon. So even as buying power goes up, take home is reduced, and I don't feel the burden on our nation as a whole is sustainable by a diminishing working class where every person who stops contributing is a double whammy of also taking out a free lunch to boot. Once the free lunch goes away, it will be too late to posture, and buying power will be the same as TP for any currency tied to a government that defaults on its debt.

After a couple good months, silver has been sinking like a rock. If this continues, I may have to buy some. Glad I missed all the good buying opportunities lately!

scyther wrote:After a couple good months, silver has been sinking like a rock. If this continues, I may have to buy some. Glad I missed all the good buying opportunities lately!

it will continue...

Time to loosen the strings a little bit. I've always enjoyed buying on the down stroke. Provided the premiums don't gouge.

Back over 18! Maybe it was just a bad few weeks?

Having a tough time trying to chart silver's present course. Never claimed to have all the answers to share with the RCers, but, lately, I seem not to even have the answers for myself.

The low $18 range appears to be the PM version of the proposed southern US border wall. Just can't make an end run to the promised land of $20 without being stopped in our tracks. In this instance, however, there's no border guards to contend with. Instead we're slammed to an abrupt halt by someone's rumor, hunch, guess, declaration, opinion, whim, conjecture, speculation and/or just plain stupidity.

Hang tough, amigos. Having lived through Silver Nirvana courtesy the Hunt Bros in the early 1980s, I witnessed the panic selling and buying in the heyday. I'll never forget it. Almost (with emphasis on "almost") as good as my first of many kisses from the neighbor girl 4 houses down the block.

Those like Ted Butler think that JP Morgan is both smart enough and patient enough to create a long-term end-run around the Hunt Brothers by using the commodities futures markets to suppress the paper price (without disconnection from physical) while amassing the largest hoard of physical silver in history. My main problem with this theory is that I'm not sure JP Morgan Chase is really either that patient or that smart. However... if they do really see an end to the fiat system on the horizon and as insurance and/or investment are amassing misc positions in various commodities (silver just being one of them) and this is part of a long-term plan to protect themselves and/or corner a market, then maybe.

As to the relatively minute fluctuations - we were briefly (technically) sub-14, and silver was sub 16 for a long number of months - a great time to buy. Now silver is back over 18. That we're not over 20 yet doesn't upset me. It's still a good time to buy. It might still go up and/or down. Which do you trust more - fiat or metal? Most of us are here because we inherently have more trust in hard metal.

What is driving this? It's clearly a combination of things, some more obvious and some speculative (and it's those speculative unknowns that are driving people mad). The USD conversion is clearly driving some of the trends, though you can't always correlate directly. It's more subtle and indirect than just the USD. But when the USD goes down PMs tend to go up, and vice versa, but there are other factors riding on top of that.

Bottom line, lacking a physical shortage (maybe later, but don't see it happening in the near-term), as long as the USD is strong PM prices expressed in USDs will be relatively cheap. If you are a US person holding USD (as many here are) buy physical PM while you can. When USD crashes PMs will shoot up and you'll wish you had bought in. Eventually fiat will at least superinflate, if not hyperinflate. It's a mathematical certainty, and history shows that.

68Camaro wrote:Those like Ted Butler think that JP Morgan is both smart enough and patient enough to create a long-term end-run around the Hunt Brothers by using the commodities futures markets to suppress the paper price (without disconnection from physical) while amassing the largest hoard of physical silver in history. My main problem with this theory is that I'm not sure JP Morgan Chase is really either that patient or that smart. However... if they do really see an end to the fiat system on the horizon and as insurance and/or investment are amassing misc positions in various commodities (silver just being one of them) and this is part of a long-term plan to protect themselves and/or corner a market, then maybe.

As to the relatively minute fluctuations - we were briefly (technically) sub-14, and silver was sub 16 for a long number of months - a great time to buy. Now silver is back over 18. That we're not over 20 yet doesn't upset me. It's still a good time to buy. It might still go up and/or down. Which do you trust more - fiat or metal? Most of us are here because we inherently have more trust in hard metal.

What is driving this? It's clearly a combination of things, some more obvious and some speculative (and it's those speculative unknowns that are driving people mad). The USD conversion is clearly driving some of the trends, though you can't always correlate directly. It's more subtle and indirect than just the USD. But when the USD goes down PMs tend to go up, and vice versa, but there are other factors riding on top of that.

Bottom line, lacking a physical shortage (maybe later, but don't see it happening in the near-term), as long as the USD is strong PM prices expressed in USDs will be relatively cheap. If you are a US person holding USD (as many here are) buy physical PM while you can. When USD crashes PMs will shoot up and you'll wish you had bought in. Eventually fiat will at least superinflate, if not hyperinflate. It's a mathematical certainty, and history shows that.

Excellent and well thought out post...as usual!

Aaaand it's back under 17. The 15-21 range is so boring. Either fall hard so I can stack more or go back to 2011-13 prices so I can sell.