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This thread was created nearly 5 years ago, when silver broke through the $26 support level that had held for years, and that barrytrot and many others said would never break. It did, and silver has never seen $25 since. In fact, it's rarely seen $20 in the last few years.

The reason I'm posting here today is that, as of today, silver hasn't been over $30 in the last 5 years. The 5-year chart on Kitco says $29.98 was the high. In just 2 more months, it will be under $25. It's interesting to watch the charts change.

How much longer will the bear market last? 5 years? 10? 20? Or will we never see silver reach its old highs again no matter how many decades we wait?

scyther wrote:This thread was created nearly 5 years ago, when silver broke through the $26 support level that had held for years, and that barrytrot and many others said would never break. It did, and silver has never seen $25 since. In fact, it's rarely seen $20 in the last few years.

The reason I'm posting here today is that, as of today, silver hasn't been over $30 in the last 5 years. The 5-year chart on Kitco says $29.98 was the high. In just 2 more months, it will be under $25. It's interesting to watch the charts change.

How much longer will the bear market last? 5 years? 10? 20? Or will we never see silver reach its old highs again no matter how many decades we wait?

I truly believe that we will see a strong bull market at some point. I am not really looking forward to whatever conditions cause that market but I will be ready. “When” is the question. I’d say definitely over 5 years, maybe 10 years from now. It might even be bitcoin that gets us there

With silver you have to be prepared for very long trends. For instance, from 1980 til 2004 it was in a downtrend that lasted a whopping 24 years. That was followed by an uptrend that lasted 7 years. Here is a neat site that has a 100-year silver chart that you can play around with. You can show just the last 30 years if you want, make it arithmetic or logarithmic, etc.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1470/histori ... year-chart

Recyclersteve wrote:With silver you have to be prepared for very long trends. For instance, from 1980 til 2004 it was in a downtrend that lasted a whopping 24 years. That was followed by an uptrend that lasted 7 years. Here is a neat site that has a 100-year silver chart that you can play around with. You can show just the last 30 years if you want, make it arithmetic or logarithmic, etc.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1470/histori ... year-chart

Great link. So really, we’ve only had 2 real spikes in the past 100 years. We might be waiting a bit but another one will come

I agree that we could easily be waiting another 5-10 (or even 20) years.

By the time silver finally spikes to, say, $75/oz., I'll be so senile I will say that "75 cents/oz. is a great deal". The buyer will think to himself "I can really take advantage of this old geezer." He will then respond with "You seem like a nice gentleman- I'm going to give you 80 cents/oz." At which time I will pull out my hidden camera with the tape I'm getting ready to send to the local news station!

I am not a market guy so ignore me 100%. That said, I dont expect to have silver (or gold) spike long term. I expect it in the next few years. I personally consider cryptos a joke and soaking up wealth from some of those who might otherwise be in metals. governments still ignore we live on debt and this isnt sustainable. I could be 100% wrong but I dont see how metals dont rise drastically minus some major tech advances that find metals where we cannot functionally do today.

scyther wrote:This thread was created nearly 5 years ago, when silver broke through the $26 support level that had held for years, and that barrytrot and many others said would never break. It did, and silver has never seen $25 since. In fact, it's rarely seen $20 in the last few years.

The reason I'm posting here today is that, as of today, silver hasn't been over $30 in the last 5 years. The 5-year chart on Kitco says $29.98 was the high. In just 2 more months, it will be under $25. It's interesting to watch the charts change.

How much longer will the bear market last? 5 years? 10? 20? Or will we never see silver reach its old highs again no matter how many decades we wait?

What bear market? The trend since the bull market began in 2000 is still on the upswing. Irrational exuberance in 2011 needed to correct. Patience grasshopper. This is the next consolidation phase over time creating the next wedge which will break one way or the other within the next couple years. Dollars are still being created out of nothing. The Fed is backtracking on their interest rate hikes.

Meanwhile, NANO went up 51.38% in the last 24 hours.

It gets a bit tiring to repeat but it bears repeating. PMs aren't - at their root - an investment; rather they are a transportable mutable recognized intrinsic physical store of value.

68Camaro wrote:It gets a bit tiring to repeat but it bears repeating. PMs aren't - at their root - an investment; rather they are a transportable mutable recognized intrinsic physical store of value.

True. That means today's price, tomorrow's price, are completely irrelevant.

Set a budget in dollars or ounces and buy that amount every week/month/year. Never sell except for dire emergency.

68Camaro wrote:It gets a bit tiring to repeat but it bears repeating. PMs aren't - at their root - an investment; rather they are a transportable mutable recognized intrinsic physical store of value.

They're the exact opposite of investment. They're divestment. We're all invested by default in fiat currency due to governmental mandate for how wages are provided and how tax payments are required, a currency that once represented PMs as money by proxy, but which now represents only an impossible promise to repay an exponentially growing national debt. FRNs, which do not meet the legal definition of a dollar, have no logical basis for being a measuring stick for anything except for maybe sentiment, but as long as we're all participating in a shared delusion we can continue to buy something of value with something that has no intrinsic value. This is a great opportunity. The delusion may last longer than expected, but mathematically it has to end at some point. Until that happens I wouldn't expect much return on divestment. And really anyone trying to get rich is asking for trouble. PMs are a safety net.

InfleXion wrote:They're the exact opposite of investment. They're divestment. We're all invested by default in fiat currency due to governmental mandate for how wages are provided and how tax payments are required, a currency that once represented PMs as money by proxy, but which now represents only an impossible promise to repay an exponentially growing national debt. FRNs, which do not meet the legal definition of a dollar, have no logical basis for being a measuring stick for anything except for maybe sentiment, but as long as we're all participating in a shared delusion we can continue to buy something of value with something that has no intrinsic value. This is a great opportunity. The delusion may last longer than expected, but mathematically it has to end at some point. Until that happens I wouldn't expect much return on divestment. And really anyone trying to get rich is asking for trouble. PMs are a safety net.

Excellent.

I may micro-tatoo this on my forearm.

To correct inflexion a bit, we are invested in things that are valued in fiat. Their would never be enough au/ag to go around and use for goods and/or exchange, both metals were hoarded through millenia and always gave problems when used as a means of exchange for goods and services due to scarcity. Neither are scarce now, but still hoarded, see some things never change.

The upside to inflation is that when your invested in these things, they are repriced in higher fiat numbers.

The other upside to fiat is we have no debtors prison, run those CC bills up, it doesn't have to be paid back, we use recessions to clear all the debt off the books, and no the debt is not being paid back, why would any government pay back the debt!, with economies flying high nobody is paying off debt!, in fact it's increasing in a parabolic fashion.

Negative interest rates will keep debt going into perpetuity. That's the upside to government, they can do what they want, they can change the rules.

Will their come a big crash at some point, well of course their will, how will it manifest?, Carrington event, war, who knows, maybe the guys (the rich) who are slowly, or shhh, quietly? setting up their exit strategies know the answer to that.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/f ... ew-zealand

everything wrote:To correct inflexion a bit, <snip> . . .
The other upside to fiat is we have no debtors prison, <snip> . . . maybe the guys (the rich) who are slowly, or shhh, quietly? setting up their exit strategies know the answer to that.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/f ... ew-zealand

Since this started as a slight correction, the ACLU might disagree about debtors prison: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/de ... bt-n849996

Regarding the behavior of the rich, let's call it what it is, prepping. Some have even relinquished their US citizenship as part of the strategy. Given these silicon valley billionaires are steeped in capitalism they are just looking after their self-interest. It's a part of the definition of capitalism along with individuals/businesses . . . ownership of property/capital assets, etc., . . . the invisible hand . . . leading to the common good. Since money is a future claim on services, resources and other stuff it begs to be used to assist self-preservation. The behavior is nothing more than an insurance policy to ensure this preservation happens and with it the possibility the claim continues also. Our society and economy requires us to do the same, so an aware individual would follow the money to make their own insurance policy. I don't reinvent the wheel, so I'm following the money. If that isn't enough, I'm following community. It's the only real fallback position. Why I follow RC and associate with it's community.

All I know is I always have the worst luck, and guess totally wrong when it comes to casino games, stocks, speed traps, and precious metals.

So when I lose all hope and sell my stash, I'll tell you guys first so you can get ready for the price to go through the roof a few days later .

Here's to continued firesales by weak hands exiting at a bottom! If another dip into the 15s happens without premiums, buyers will appear.

68Camaro wrote:Here's to continued firesales by weak hands exiting at a bottom! If another dip into the 15s happens without premiums, buyers will appear.

Not sure if this is weak hands or just very low demand but MCM listed on ebay today 2018 ASE"s for just $1.53 over spot. Never seen that low of a premium on new ASE's from a major national dealer

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Daily-Deal-Lot ... n-SKU51558

Well the Sale Price was supposed to last for five days but after they sold 4000 ASE"s in just three hours they upped the price.

Any insight on whether or not the anticipated Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will affect PM markets?

Zincanator wrote:Any insight on whether or not the anticipated Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will affect PM markets?

Sure. The Trump tariffs start a trade war. Countries effected place their own tariffs or economic retaliation on America. Tensions rise. People spend less and hunker down as they feel less sure about the future. The economies of the world slow down and go into recession. America First becomes a national battle cry. More economic retaliation results. Military activity increases. Central banks step in and apply interventions. Money supply and/or it's equivalent are up. Purchasing power of money goes down. People think the world is going to shat and start buying PMs as a safe haven.

Zincanator wrote:Any insight on whether or not the anticipated Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will affect PM markets?

These things are often more complicated than they first seem. Also, beware of the law of unintended consequences, black swans, etc.

Per data on the census.gov site, here are (ranked from top to bottom) the top 10 sources for steel imports by dollar amount imported for calendar year 2017. To get to the data on the census.gov site, click on Business & Industries/Foreign Trade. Look for Dec. 2017 data and go over to the right to find totals for 2017. My numbers here are in millions of dollars:

1. Canada $5,119 (17.6% of total imports)
2. Korea $2,785 (9.6%) (likely includes lots of autos)
3. Mexico $2,501 (8.6%)
4. Brazil $2,442 (8.4%)
5. Germany $1,833 (6.3%) (lots of German autos)
6. Japan $1,657 (5.7%) (lots of Japanese autos)
7. Russia $1,431 (4.9%) (I'm surprised that we imported even that much steel from Russia- if it comes from Eastern Russia, perhaps it goes to Alaska and Hawaii??)
8. Taiwan $1,261 (4.3%)
9. Turkey $1,182 (4.1%)
10. China $976 (3.3%)
TOP 10 (72.8% OF WORLDWIDE IMPORTS)

I've also heard rumblings that we don't want to upset the whole world so we will use selective enforcement on tariffs. In other words, we will penalize China but perhaps not Canada.

I've also heard that China has been cheating the system for decades so their threats of retaliation are going to be difficult for them to do anything about. Think about it this way- if they have already been cheating, what else can they do? They are in a bind and they don't want to have millions of unemployed workers sitting around thinking about how to overthrow the government.

One thing that does bother me is that if this ends up being inflationary in any way, then so much for the recent tax cuts.

I do like the theme of "draining the swamp", as Trump has called it, but when he comes out and makes a statement that these trade wars will be simple to win, I cringe. I wish the guy wouldn't be so over the top. Maybe that is part of his plan for some reason, but tact and maturity would go a long way without ruffling so many feathers.

Also, you wonder if on some of Trump's recent travels that he hasn't secretly told the leaders of those countries what to expect, and perhaps even to get "very upset" on the national stage in order for things to work out a different way behind the scenes. I am not exactly trusting of the government- and that applies to both parties and practically all countries.

My, this thread certainly got far astray from the original subject of the price of silver. Sorry about that.

Pop today.

henrysmedford wrote:Pop today.

Didn't last long.

Recyclersteve wrote:

henrysmedford wrote:Pop today.

Didn't last long.

It never does....

It's under $28... very soon now!

scyther wrote:It's under $28... very soon now!

What is under $28?