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Recyclersteve wrote:I agree that the market gains were largely fueled by the Feds injecting massive amounts of liquidity. But I wouldn't be so confident that the ultimate giant pullback has already begun. It could easily go on for several more years before things truly get interesting (maybe I should have said scary). I do think that a 20% pullback in perhaps 2 months or less would be very very healthy.

The analogy I like to use, distasteful as it might seem, is the college student who has had too much to drink. They know that if they throw up they will feel better pretty fast. They try sticking their fingers down their throat and nothing happens. But they just know they need to vomit.

Even if the market retraces -20%, it's still VERY overvalued. PE's are way too high by historical standards. Most 401k funds are loaded up with these FANG stocks... they're probably going to get wiped out. It's Black Friday morning and the market is tanking again as I type this.

Silver getting hit again this morning as well. These smack-downs never seem to end. I foresee another 2008 event where PM prices get hit along with stock prices. Traders/algos will dump everything in order to meet margin calls. At some point the PM prices will reverse and start going parabolic. JP Morgan has accumulated the largest physical silver position of any bank is history... they know what's coming.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

Recyclersteve wrote:I agree that the market gains were largely fueled by the Feds injecting massive amounts of liquidity. But I wouldn't be so confident that the ultimate giant pullback has already begun. It could easily go on for several more years before things truly get interesting (maybe I should have said scary). I do think that a 20% pullback in perhaps 2 months or less would be very very healthy.

The analogy I like to use, distasteful as it might seem, is the college student who has had too much to drink. They know that if they throw up they will feel better pretty fast. They try sticking their fingers down their throat and nothing happens. But they just know they need to vomit.

Even if the market retraces -20%, it's still VERY overvalued. PE's are way too high by historical standards. Most 401k funds are loaded up with these FANG stocks... they're probably going to get wiped out. It's Black Friday morning and the market is tanking again as I type this.

Silver getting hit again this morning as well. These smack-downs never seem to end. I foresee another 2008 event where PM prices get hit along with stock prices. Traders/algos will dump everything in order to meet margin calls. At some point the PM prices will reverse and start going parabolic. JP Morgan has accumulated the largest physical silver position of any bank is history... they know what's coming.

Your analysis is on par with my perception. The smack downs won't end until there is no longer a way to create currency out of nothing, as in a fair market. I think if/as the price begins going parabolic that it will be a very slippery slope for the lifespan of the USD, and now is a crucial time to buy for those who don't yet have a core position established. The chart crunching I've done seems to point to 2019 or 2020 as the next breakout year for silver, which I suspect may coincide with the next presidential election cycle, but I wouldn't want to be late to the party. With the tent cities growing rapidly at least in my area I'm thinking more and more about about getting out of dodge or at least moving to a less populated area.

Gold to silver ratio at a ten year high. It's right about 86 as I type. Buy more silver. Shoot, might as well buy more gold too. Just saying.

Stack now!

InfleXion wrote:Your analysis is on par with my perception. The smack downs won't end until there is no longer a way to create currency out of nothing, as in a fair market. I think if/as the price begins going parabolic that it will be a very slippery slope for the lifespan of the USD, and now is a crucial time to buy for those who don't yet have a core position established. The chart crunching I've done seems to point to 2019 or 2020 as the next breakout year for silver, which I suspect may coincide with the next presidential election cycle, but I wouldn't want to be late to the party. With the tent cities growing rapidly at least in my area I'm thinking more and more about about getting out of dodge or at least moving to a less populated area.

Better to be years early than 1 second too late. I also agree that sometime during the 2019-2020 time frame will be when the market crashes and PM's go parabolic. I've held my core Ag (and Au) position for many years. Anything purchased now or in the future is just icing on the cake.

Tent cities, huh? You must be in Cali. If so, you need to get the heck out of there. All heavily populated major cities are going to be very dangerous places when the SHTF. Ammo, food and clean water will probably be worth more than gold or silver in a Mad Max scenario. Diversify accordingly.

InfleXion wrote:I'm thinking more and more about about getting out of dodge or at least moving to a less populated area.

Twin Falls, Idaho is nice. There is more food than people here.

IdahoCopper wrote:

InfleXion wrote:I'm thinking more and more about about getting out of dodge or at least moving to a less populated area.

Twin Falls, Idaho is nice. There is more food than people here.

The whole state of Idaho is nice. Two years ago I drove from southern California to Boise and I felt like I traveled back in time to my childhood in the 1960's when a big city was actually clean without homeless people, pan handlers, drug dealers and prostitutes lining the streets. Buildings that were graffiti-free and a place where you could walk the streets at ease and not have to constantly be aware of your surroundings. A city where people were actually friendly and nice instead of the violent nut-cases that roam the streets of our cities today. They say that you can't go back in time but I came as close as I ever will that one week I spent in Boise!

IdahoCopper wrote:

InfleXion wrote:I'm thinking more and more about about getting out of dodge or at least moving to a less populated area.

Twin Falls, Idaho is nice. There is more food than people here.

Don't advertise it. You paradise will turn into California, just like Prescott AZ in doing right now. It is heartbreaking.

We almost fell below 14 today. It is very difficult to not add some oz. at this price level. It's that time of year and deals are coming, I try very hard to be patient and keep more powder available for when something comes along that I want.

I just had to make a purchase today. So...schedule me for flogging in the town square. Looked on eBay today and there was 20 toz of silver rounds for $289. Free shipping and the like. I enjoy purchases that I can turn around and get at least what I paid for it (not factoring in postage, etc., since it was free.)

As of today, it has been 10 full years that silver has been over $10. The 10-year kitco chart was showing 9.81 yesterday; now it's 10.19.

scyther wrote:As of today, it has been 10 full years that silver has been over $10. The 10-year kitco chart was showing 9.81 yesterday; now it's 10.19.

Good point. I remember trying to buy some silver in October, 2008 and my local coin shop said he would sell only two ASE's per customer. I replied "Two rolls?" and he said "No two coins!" I was able to get 20 from another dealer, but what a time it was for metals and also the stock market, real estate and life in general.

Is this move up the start of a trend?

was wondering this myself.

We'll see what happens after Jan 1 (when all the traders are alive again).

Nice bounce today.

Yep - USD dropping. Why I'm not sure.

Accurate or not, headlines note a rising market belief that the FED is going to stop buying back dollars and at least play it even (if not slip back into QE again). That makes the dollar weaker, PM's stronger.

Reacting to news that the government shutdown is (temporarily) over?

Getting back into the race to the bottom.

So, are you guys in Ag for short term profits, or long term wealth preservation?

I started buying as a child coin collector in mid-late 70's, then in size starting in 1985. I still have about 80-90% of what I bought from back then. Sold a couple junk bags at the peak in 2011, but that's it.

Just buy it and put it away. At some point in the future you'll be very happy. It's really a no-brainer.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: Just buy it and put it away. At some point in the future you'll be very happy. It's really a no-brainer.

Yes, but you have to be strong enough to withstand years of catcalls from those close to you (spouse, family and friends) saying "You should have sold when (insert lame rationale and timeline)..."

Yes - strength is required, especially with the spouse. Best to get them on board if you can. If you don't I expect that could be difficult. I have a super intelligent well educated spouse but it was still a process of several years of patient explanation and teaching and illustration from the news to reverse the brainwashing of popular culture. She's on board now. But it took time. With someone else I could see never getting there. Thus the need for strength of conviction.

As far as others... No one else except your closest heir / future power of attorney should know and even then you should restrict / limit what they know.

68Camaro wrote:Yes - strength is required, especially with the spouse. Best to get them on board if you can. If you don't I expect that could be difficult. I have a super intelligent well educated spouse but it was still a process of several years of patient explanation and teaching and illustration from the news to reverse the brainwashing of popular culture. She's on board now. But it took time. With someone else I could see never getting there. Thus the need for strength of conviction.

As far as others... No one else except your closest heir / future power of attorney should know and even then you should restrict / limit what they know.

Good that you finally got her on board. No marriage for me... not ever. I cannot imagine having to ask someone permission to do or purchase something.

Yes, people definitely need to limit those who know about your PM stash. Only one trustworthy person in my family knows about it and has specific instructions what to do in the event of my death.

68Camaro wrote:Yes - strength is required, especially with the spouse. Best to get them on board if you can. If you don't I expect that could be difficult. I have a super intelligent well educated spouse but it was still a process of several years of patient explanation and teaching and illustration from the news to reverse the brainwashing of popular culture. She's on board now. But it took time. With someone else I could see never getting there. Thus the need for strength of conviction.

As far as others... No one else except your closest heir / future power of attorney should know and even then you should restrict / limit what they know.

I had a buddy that was quite resistant for a couple of years. He would politely listen but wouldn't pull the trigger. Once he finally did, he was all in. His wife was 100% on board as well which was nice to see/hear. They are both intelligent and well-educated, but it took a lot of effort. Better late than never, right?

CopperSilverGold wrote:I had a buddy that was quite resistant for a couple of years. He would politely listen but wouldn't pull the trigger. Once he finally did, he was all in. His wife was 100% on board as well which was nice to see/hear. They are both intelligent and well-educated, but it took a lot of effort. Better late than never, right?

And I thought I was the only one who was "all in". Actually I'm 90% in and holding some cash for bills and emergencies. Some people would say I'm crazy... oh well. I know what's coming. It's all a matter of time and patience.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

CopperSilverGold wrote:I had a buddy that was quite resistant for a couple of years. He would politely listen but wouldn't pull the trigger. Once he finally did, he was all in. His wife was 100% on board as well which was nice to see/hear. They are both intelligent and well-educated, but it took a lot of effort. Better late than never, right?

And I thought I was the only one who was "all in". Actually I'm 90% in and holding some cash for bills and emergencies. Some people would say I'm crazy... oh well. I know what's coming. It's all a matter of time and patience.

It got to the point where he was bugging me to go to the local coin shop on our lunch break on regular basis. He had the itch big time!

I remember one co-worker vehemently arguing with me about owning any physical silver or gold. He thought I was dumb for doing so. He is very opinionated to begin with and just wouldn't listen to anything I had to say. A few weeks later he asked me out of the blue if I was still buying silver. I told him "no...I sold it all based on our conversation a few weeks ago" lol. His reply was "smart man!"