BOTTOM!!

[jacer333]

I'm doing my part for the younger generation!! 22 years old here, using most of my expendable cash to stack silver or to buy more penny boxes!

[shinnosuke]

I'm doing my part for the younger generation!! 22 years old here, using most of my expendable cash to stack silver or to buy more penny boxes!

Don't forget Pb, the other precious metal.

[fb101]

I think I figured out where the bottom is. It is where it can't get any lower. $0.00 is the absolute bottom.

Tbill and bond yields disproved that not too long ago......

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Want to make a general comment.
The cause and effect thing may be a thing for stable times, but right now it's adrenalin under the guise of fear and greed that are moving things now.
Things make no sense because the foundation of TWAWKI is being rocked.
Greece defaults
100 people fear currency problem 50 buy gold 50 buy Dollars, both go up. (lets not be too literal)
dollars are sold to buy gold and gold is sold to buy dollars.

In the end, for this time if not for all anyway, JFF is right.
You can't call the thundering herd, so just follow.

[Engineer]

My trigger finger is starting to feel itchy again...

[Chief]

20xFV sounds like as good of time as any to stock up. I wish I had more $ to play with. I still might pick up another $25FV.
Don't you all think the upside is far higher than the downside at this point?

[SoFa]

Don't you all think the upside is far higher than the downside at this point?

In my opinion, no.
It depends on your time frame though. If you're talking years, then yes silver will probably rise again someday.

[barrytrot]

Don't you all think the upside is far higher than the downside at this point?

In my opinion, no.
It depends on your time frame though. If you're talking years, then yes silver will probably rise again someday.

If you are not thinking years, i.e. that would mean at least 24 months then you are likely to do a lot more trading than everyone other than Jhonflyfish

Let's look at the "up" vs. the "down" which is 99% of my investment strategy:

Some might say that 26 is the bottom.
Still more 25.
Others 24.
etc.
Until pretty much no one says below 15. Right? Is there anyone in the "under 15" school? If so, let me know. But until then I will say that all "analysts" and smart guys like us think that 15 is a super-duper-triple-quadruple-bottom point.

Ok, so silver can go down by a maximum of $12.50 per ounce. Got it.

What's the top?

Certainly 40, right?
Probably 45.
Possibly 48.
And some would say things like 100 or 500 or whatever.

But lets just call 48 the "reasonable top".

That means it could go up REASONABLY $20.50 per ounce!


So $20.50 vs. $12.50? Obvious the up is much greater than the down. And really there are SEVERAL that would say 100 per ounce is "reasoanble".

But without even getting above where it was only 13 months ago, we have a $20.50 upside vs. a $12.50 downside.


Sounds like a pretty safe bet at this point.


And to prove it, I piled more of my real money onto fake silver last week

[Chief]

Don't you all think the upside is far higher than the downside at this point?

In my opinion, no.It depends on your time frame though. If you're talking years, then yes silver will probably rise again someday.

So $20.50 vs. $12.50? Obvious the up is much greater than the down. And really there are SEVERAL that would say 100 per ounce is "reasoanble".
Sounds like a pretty safe bet at this point.

That is kinda how I feel. I've read your posts talking about how we won't see $25. I'd buy that, but I really don't see $20. No way the US$ gains that much strength to reach those levels. When does economic chaos in Europe lead the average European to crave PMs? How is the Euro still worth more than a US$? Will Greece leave/be kicked out of the EU by the end of Summer? What happens then? I will enjoy hearing your opinions.

[Thogey]

Below 20 is not out of the question at all.

You all seem to correlate the price rise in silver to the decline in USD value.

2008 was only 4 years ago and the dollar has not declined as fast as silver has risen. I think $17-$22 would be a healthy and reasonable appreciation since 2008. The silver market has been ridiculous! I sold a mess of silver during the "frenzy". It was a frenzy. I hated selling each ounce I sold. But, I was able to sell hundreds of Morgans for $35+. I'm glad I did because the Thogey's are "deleveraging"(new word for me). Hopefully the frenzy is over and I can get back to stacking and saving..not speculating. Right now I'm 'catching a falling knife" and it is feeling better and better every day.

[SoFa]

I'm just looking out to the next move, which I define by the endpoints of about $31.50 and $21/oz.
It's near the middle of the range, so the difference is small (4 on the upside and 6 on the down).
I define it that way because there is weakness in the chart between here and those spots.
But presently there is overhead supply at 29 and support at 26-27.

Longer term (24 months) I think the max is close to 39, and the bottom is the upper teens.

In other words, rather than being at the bottom, I think we're seeing the middle.

[CtrlAltBernanke]

I'm not an expert but as of now I see the odds of $25 silver more likely than $30. If Greece wont get out of the Euro until June 18th, then the greenback will do well until then. I actually wouldn't be surprised if it stayed somewhere in the 20's until the election unless we go to was with some new phantom menace. Once January 1st hits all hell should break loose and I'm betting that it will take off then.

[jmacri01]

Since 2009 the silver bottom has moved up $6 per year. Setting the 2012 bottom at $26 and the 2013 bottom at $32. On top of that we are seeing a potential triple bottom at current levels. This level has been tested twice before and failed to break, showing strength. I think it's safe to say silver will not drop below $26 ever again.

[shinnosuke]

Since 2009 the silver bottom has moved up $6 per year. Setting the 2012 bottom at $26 and the 2013 bottom at $32. On top of that we are seeing a potential triple bottom at current levels. This level has been tested twice before and failed to break, showing strength. I think it's safe to say silver will not drop below $26 ever again.

"Ever" is a long time. Since manipulation is a word that is often used on this forum, some here would not say that silver won't go below $26 if the powers that be make a concerted effort to lower the price.

Or what if fundamentals don't really matter now and the price is the best gauge to monitor what will happen next? What if events in other countries beyond our control and understanding combine to drag the price down to $25.xx? Will the breeching of the triple-bottom allow/cause the price to drop precipitously from there?

Future price movement is such an important distinction that could deeply affect many of us financially. Perhaps now is the time to sell everything and buy back at, say, $15/oz. I don't know with any degree of certainty. I just know what I would like the price to do. If you have some more wisdom or a link to share, I'd like to see it.

[SoFa]

Every time it tests $26/oz, it is more likely to fail.

The expiration of tax breaks and reduced government spending at the end of the year could affect precious metals adversely.

So could the recession and bear market of 2013.

[68Camaro]

I find the recent interest in how low silver will go to be interesting, but only of mild utility. If one is focused on wealth accumulation and retention in the midst of out of control markets and economic chaos, how important is it that we are having an extended dip (now a year long for silver)? Ask yourselves if any fundamentals have changed in a good direction. They haven't. Things are worse than ever. Accumulate physical. The lower it goes the better for all of us - for now. The reversal will come and it will happen so fast that even those of us that expect it will still be shocked.

[shinnosuke]

I find the recent interest in how low silver will go to be interesting, but only of mild utility. If one is focused on wealth accumulation and retention in the midst of out of control markets and economic chaos, how important is it that we are having an extended dip (now a year long for silver)? Ask yourselves if any fundamentals have changed in a good direction. They haven't. Things are worse than ever. Accumulate physical. The lower it goes the better for all of us - for now. The reversal will come and it will happen so fast that even those of us that expect it will still be shocked.

I agree with you, except it is tempting to buy "tomorrow" if the price is going to be lower than today's. Perhaps someone who has not accumulated very much needs to buy physical every time they find a spare 30 bucks in their wallet. Others may have the luxury to wait and see. I bought a little 90% today because I could get it below melt. Those kind of purchases are fine. Future ASE accumulation?...think I'm going to wait and see.

[SoFa]

It's interesting to me that while the dollar has continued higher, both silver and gold have been range bound the past week.
I would like silver lower, so the divergence is becoming troubling.

[Engineer]

I find the recent interest in how low silver will go to be interesting, but only of mild utility. If one is focused on wealth accumulation and retention in the midst of out of control markets and economic chaos, how important is it that we are having an extended dip (now a year long for silver)? Ask yourselves if any fundamentals have changed in a good direction. They haven't. Things are worse than ever. Accumulate physical. The lower it goes the better for all of us - for now. The reversal will come and it will happen so fast that even those of us that expect it will still be shocked.

I agree. Stack while the stacking is good, and don't get greedy waiting for the absolute bottom.

[shinnosuke]

I find the recent interest in how low silver will go to be interesting, but only of mild utility. If one is focused on wealth accumulation and retention in the midst of out of control markets and economic chaos, how important is it that we are having an extended dip (now a year long for silver)? Ask yourselves if any fundamentals have changed in a good direction. They haven't. Things are worse than ever. Accumulate physical. The lower it goes the better for all of us - for now. The reversal will come and it will happen so fast that even those of us that expect it will still be shocked.

I agree. Stack while the stacking is good, and don't get greedy waiting for the absolute bottom.

In my case, greed has nothing to do with it. I believe the world is about to careen through some tough financial times and I'm trying to get prepared with assets that hold value. If greed was my motivation, I could simply pull some pantyhose over my face, grab a gun and go to the nearest liquor store for cash. Or, alternatively, I could become the CEO of Goldman Sachs, then a New Jersey senator, then the governor of that same state, and then the CEO of MF Global where I would rob my clients of over a billion dollars and never worry about going to jail because I was once in line to be Obama's Treasury Secretary.

Europe is imploding before our very eyes. Turns out that the no-cost/low-cost healthcare utopian society they voted in for themselves wasn't free after all. It will take some serious QE and Control+P to keep them from going under this year. QE will raise the price of silver, right? That's the common assumption. I simply believe there will be one or more opportunities to purchase at a price lower than it is now. If I'm a fool, pity me. Don't assign some baser instinct to my motives or those of others who agree with me.

[Engineer]

Don't assign some baser instinct to my motives or those of others who agree with me.

Easy there, Pilgrim. I wasn't even thinking of you when I posted, so there's no need to take it personally. If you take offense to my previous language, feel free to rephrase it as "slow and steady wins the race".

[shinnosuke]

Don't assign some baser instinct to my motives or those of others who agree with me.

Easy there, Pilgrim. I wasn't even thinking of you when I posted, so there's no need to take it personally. If you take offense to my previous language, feel free to rephrase it as "slow and steady wins the race".

So then, Kemosabe, you were just telling yourself to not be greedy?

[CtrlAltBernanke]

Ask yourselves if any fundamentals have changed in a good direction. They haven't. Things are worse than ever.

I completely agree that things are worse than ever. Usually during the day I have Fox News on mute so I don't have to think about shooting my television when I hear Karl Rove or John Bolton's voice. Today I decided to put it on CNBC just to see what kind of crap they were peddling and I just couldn't believe it. I felt like I was watching some motivational video. They kept saying over and over again, "The U.S. economy is great, very strong." I felt like I was watching something that the military's psy-ops division put together. The last time I saw something like that was when the media was pushing the Iraq war on us. It was also telling when they were talking about gold and silver. They were attacking the two like I had expected but there seemed to be an unintentional inflection and body language when they were talking about it. Almost as if they know that silver is the canary in the coal mine and as long as that bird hasn't moved then everything is still okay at the moment. Things are happening. I've never been an alarmist but when it hits it will start off swift and quick and most of America will be caught with their pants down.

[Engineer]

So then, Kemosabe, you were just telling yourself to not be greedy?

It looks like you're itching for a fight there, pardner. Best choose yer words carefully or I'll have you spread-eagled on a wagon wheel.

[68Camaro]

You'd best keep your bullet in your shirt pocket folks, no need to get twitchy at each other!

[Jonflyfish]

Emotions can never will any market to one's favor. All one needs is price.
Listen to the market. It will tell you what you need to know and it cares not what you say, think, or do.
Some folks grow deaf by yelling at the wall (and others) and consequently miss hearing the soft whispers from mother market.
Truth in price.
Cheers!