SILVER - WAS $31-$49, WAS $33-$43, NOW $44+

[shinnosuke]

Prepare like everything depends on me and pray like everything depends on God.

[Jonflyfish]

oh boy......better have some sort of trailing buy to cover entered in.

JFF be safe.

He's an experienced trader, most likely has position limits on the sizes of his trades. He's playing with risk capital and is willing to use the tools available to him to optimize his bets. He's not going to lose it all if the trade goes the wrong way, probably placed a stop-loss limit (I don't know what the terminology is in future's trading) if the market moves against him. No hard feelings, JFF, but I'd rather have you with us than against us, ie go silver, go.

Hi folks. Just a quick note to explain a few quick things and to thank everyone that referenced my posts for all the kind remarks. Well, as stated before, I am with y'all. Silver (physical) to infinity and beyond.....

Most people here seem satisfied with the idea of silver trading in the triple digit range, yet it is fascinating how small movements in price either way cause some to become wildly anxious and excited. So, I'm not sure why people who are expecting silver prices to triple or more from here would have any interest in what the market does from day to day. Generally speaking, hoping for small pullbacks doesn't seem to make a lot of sense either. If target prices are that much higher, the risk is in not being fully allocated and missing such a rise in price at the expense of attempting to make a few extra points on a pullback that may or may not present itself.

Now, as for what I was posting here last night, it is just a financial trade for a correction in price. System said to fade what looked like a break above $36 into a possible blow off top. Entered slowly to initiate a position. Even though higher prices were likely, it was important to establish a position. So, I scaled in with four prices and progressively higher weighting on each for a total of 8 allocation units. (1x $25.91, 1x $36.015, 2X $26.30, 4X $36.38)= $36.256 average. Was getting on a plane so the prices were a little sloppy but acceptable. Again, this was just a financial trade which does not seem to fit well here. As mentioned before, perhaps this is not the proper place to post these types of trades.
Hope I have not caused any problems for doing so and my apologies for any inconveniences this may have caused. Will reconsider such going forward.

Cheers

[TXBullion]

oh boy......better have some sort of trailing buy to cover entered in.

JFF be safe.

He's an experienced trader, most likely has position limits on the sizes of his trades. He's playing with risk capital and is willing to use the tools available to him to optimize his bets. He's not going to lose it all if the trade goes the wrong way, probably placed a stop-loss limit (I don't know what the terminology is in future's trading) if the market moves against him. No hard feelings, JFF, but I'd rather have you with us than against us, ie go silver, go.

Hi folks. Just a quick note to explain a few quick things and to thank everyone that referenced my posts for all the kind remarks. Well, as stated before, I am with y'all. Silver (physical) to infinity and beyond.....

Most people here seem satisfied with the idea of silver trading in the triple digit range, yet it is fascinating how small movements in price either way cause some to become wildly anxious and excited. So, I'm not sure why people who are expecting silver prices to triple or more from here would have any interest in what the market does from day to day. Generally speaking, hoping for small pullbacks doesn't seem to make a lot of sense either. If target prices are that much higher, the risk is in not being fully allocated and missing such a rise in price at the expense of attempting to make a few extra points on a pullback that may or may not present itself.

Now, as for what I was posting here last night, it is just a financial trade for a correction in price. System said to fade what looked like a break above $36 into a possible blow off top. Entered slowly to initiate a position. Even though higher prices were likely, it was important to establish a position. So, I scaled in with four prices and progressively higher weighting on each for a total of 8 allocation units. (1x $25.91, 1x $36.015, 2X $26.30, 4X $36.38)= $36.256 average. Was getting on a plane so the prices were a little sloppy but acceptable. Again, this was just a financial trade which does not seem to fit well here. As mentioned before, perhaps this is not the proper place to post these types of trades.
Hope I have not caused any problems for doing so and my apologies for any inconveniences this may have caused. Will reconsider such going forward.

Cheers

JFF, I always appreciate your posts and thank you for the explanation. Although I dont understand a lot of the terminology used here, it is great to learn. I really like the part here that I put in bold

[aloneibreak]

ditto what jack said

i look forward to the new posts in this thread everyday

different views and different avenues to explore make it exciting

keep em coming

[inflationhawk]

Any thoughts on if these consistent overnight run ups are real demand from Asian markets or maybe one of the big banks trying to cover their short position slowly and quietly. Seems like if it was short covering, they'd want to do it during US trading day when volume is higher and their is more liquidity. I think these are new buyers coming into the silver market personally. It's been crazy consistent though to see these overnight gains and then watch them recede during US trading day.

[Lemon Thrower]

JFF - thanks for your explanation and kind thoughts

to others - if JFF's short causes you stress, then you are too emotionally tied to your position. Silver is money, its not something to love. If you think he's wrong, that shouldn't threaten your beliefs. If it does, you need to analyze why you are long silver. to me, i'm long because i understand the fundamental reasons why its going higher and that it offers compelling value compared to alternatives. Now, if the GSR were 16, or real estate or stocks were cheap, the opinion of an informed poster would have me reconsidering my views but not at 40 GSR.

the gold silver ratio broke out past long term support about a week ago. that means the value of silver relative to gold is likely to continue to accelerate, either through a rising silver price or falling gold price. as unlikely as it sounds, what is most likely is that both continue to rise with silver outpacing gold. i say unlikely only because they have been doing this for a long time and most people expect them to take a break.

[Rodebaugh]

JFF knows I am one of his boys. However, I will question his trades .......for that is how one Learns. He is good enough to explain his direction and thought process to us all. Correct or not, I want to hear it. I am, as I suspect others are, aware that a short term bearish play in the paper market to collect some FRN doesn’t necessarily reflect a negative sentiment towards the underlying physical commodity.

As for myself, the only paper commodities that I have experience trading were Upper Deck and Topps.

Soooo…….Keep posting your trades JFF.

Thanks, Rodebaugh

[Thogey]

JFF,

Nobody here believes your trades affect their silver positions, nor does anyone think ill of you because of your short selling.

What you do is no different than when some here sell on these price spikes, just a little easier (no shipping).

Ray's comment just reflects who he is, a bitter old man who puts on sexy garter belts and rolls around in his tons of silver dimes.

We don't think any less of him for what he does either. Most here just have a more moderate position.

[beauanderos]

Eric, you really think the garters are sexy? Thank you for picking them out for me from the Victoria's Secret Catalog, I will consider your offer to meet sometime in a clandestine location to punish you. I'm not really sure why you want me to dress up and act as a dominatrix and whip you, but whatever. Some people, I suppose, have even stranger passions than yours.

[inflationhawk]

New day, same story. Asia takes silver up and US markets pull it back in. Something seems really fishy with this market.

[beauanderos]

New day, same story. Asia takes silver up and US markets pull it back in. Something seems really fishy with this market.

That's what you get in an unregulated, manipulated market. The CFTC isn't doing their job to limit the shorts. True price discovery will emerge once the genuine shortage of silver becomes widespread knowledge. You can help develop that scarcity by continuing to dollar cost avg into silver, plus plunging extra during the pullbacks.

[68Camaro]

New day, same story. Asia takes silver up and US markets pull it back in. Something seems really fishy with this market.

That's what you get in an unregulated, manipulated market. The CFTC isn't doing their job to limit the shorts. True price discovery will emerge once the genuine shortage of silver becomes widespread knowledge. You can help develop that scarcity by continuing to dollar cost avg into silver, plus plunging extra during the pullbacks.

If indeed this is what is happening then, under persistent long-term market buying pressure, whatever JPM and the rest might be doing is really a house of cards, effectively a ponzi-scheme, which one day eventually has to collapse of its own weight. There are some suggestions/indications that that day may be soon-ish, this year at least. It seems to be month by month at this point, as to how long they can keep it up. That's the main reason I'm accumulating only, not playing the market, because the forces in play are gigantic, and I don't want to get crushed like an ant, as an afterthought of something so large and out of control that I can't deal with it.

[Country]

At this time, SILVER looks as if it's in a BULLISH "FLAG PATTERN" technically. I don't see a correction here.



http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bull_flag.html

[68Camaro]

Fits the pattern, but this is both a time in history and a specific item that I would be strongly cautious of technical analysis. It has a place, but I've always hesitated to apply it blindly, and especially now. I think the forces in this market, now, are capable of overwhelming the background behind technical analysis, which I think has to assume semi-random behaviors and no single force capable of driving the market unilaterally.

[neilgin1]

Country, thanks for the chart.

68...i concur. Tech analysis can be helpful, but these are truly unprecendented times we live in.

and i believe everything we are seeing now, whether it be in the markets, metals, crude, wheat, etc....whether it be in the actions of the Fed, monetizing fiat, etc...whether it be in the actions of our National Command Authority, what you see happening in the 10/40 belt
are all related to Peak Oil, and the growing realization that if we continue in such a way, we're going to crash into a wall.

There's some very very frightened folk out there, and i'm not talking about Joe Q. Public, i'm speaking of people in leadership circles, in the US and abroad. These guys are holding the whole thing together with duct tape and bailing wire, and frankly its just not working.

You can send drones aloft in Pakistan, you can game sunni muslims versus shia muslims versus sufi muslims, all day long, and at the end of the day, somebodies' going have to pay the tab. The goal should be...how do we move beyond the age of hydrocarbons?

and i dont see anybody in leadership circles with that kind of wisdom and foresight...or courage, because a LOT of people make a LOT of money in Petro world.

so we buy silver, land, timber and water. Thats the trade, in my opinion. n.

[Country]

I think we need to realize that technical analysis is what the BIG BOYS use for their trading systems. I'd bet that even JonFly uses it too in his trading systems. So, when a definitive pattern emerges it will have far more weight that we realize.

Flag patterns reflect CONSOLIDATION after a rapid vertical rise. They may last for a couple weeks before the rapid uptrend continues higher.

Just my 2c.

[beauanderos]

I think we need to realize that technical analysis is what the BIG BOYS use for their trading systems. I'd bet that even JonFly uses it too in his trading systems. So, when a definitive pattern emerges it will have far more weight that we realize.

Flag patterns reflect CONSOLIDATION after a rapid vertical rise. They may last for a couple weeks before the rapid uptrend continues higher.

Just my 2c.

The trouble is, Bill, the traders at JPM use the patterns against the Longs, letting them bid the market up when indicators herald a breakout from such a flag pattern, get a herd of lemmings to follow them... and then crush the market, over and over again. The only thing that can stop them (and I do believe they have a bottomless well for a budget to suppress precious metals, they'll just charge the taxpayers for their losses as they are "too big to fail"... and as the largest member bank of the Fed... they basically ARE the fed) is an absolute transparency obvious depletion of above ground silver stocks leading to short covering/default at COMEX. Nothing else will stop them. And it wouldn't surprize me in the least that they are stockpiling both metals somehow to capitalize on the price explosion that is forthcoming. All this aside... I am still amassing physical as fast as I can. The day will come, this year, that you won't be able to source silver any more, in any size beyond a few dollars worth. IMHO

[beauanderos]

Silver is being slammed today. Good news for JFF. At least someone is nimble enough to profit from the gyrations.

[Rodebaugh]

Nimble enough to profit from the gyrations.

Some work in oils, some in pastels, some in clay......

Ray.....works in type

[Rodebaugh]

People are a buying Ray. I have been watching the #'s available on bulk morgan dollars at Apmex. In two days 2000+ morgans have been sold and not replaced.

[Jonflyfish]

Well thank y'all for the kind remarks. We've got some good guys (and gals) here.
Glad people are willing and able to share a variety of investment/trading/market ideas and views.
IMVHO, the key when trading something where the future is unknowable is to have the discipline to follow the plan.
The outcome takes care of itself.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

At $34.30 keep it tight. Won't be around here for a bit to post anything new.

Cheers!

[Market Harmony]

I will not be surprised to see $37 silver by the end of today

[shinnosuke]

I will not be surprised to see $37 silver by the end of today

Spill...please.

[coppertone]

Can't keep a good precious metal down!