Silver - $27 going to Zero! Call your boss..beg for job back

[barrytrot]

I called my wife just now and she said it's ok if I use Rodebaugh's bottom. She agreed that $18 was a very low bottom.

[Jonflyfish]

Jon, why do you think i brought Southwest? i was throwing you a 16 inch softball to swing at....it was a peace offering. i know your involvement there. Why you think i was talking about the Brent/WTI spread, Bakken, Williston, refining margins?....it was a peace offering, a common ground. You cant discern that?....i always want to talk, i'm just not going to take [shucks] from ANYBODY, so there it is.

Cheers?...or what?

What should I say? You are so kind after all the interesting personal sneering and jeering you made and now you throw a softball? (for what?)
Or, is this where folks start (mis)quoting biblical passages again.....
I don't think you know the scope of involvement with client x here or there and it doesn't really matter. There is nothing to prove.


Cheers!

[Rodebaugh]

No, I'm done with that for now. I'm using Rodebaugh's bottom.

You may not want to use my bottom. It has a pretty big crack in it.

[NHsorter]

It's much more fun when you bash each other for things specifically related to silver or the markets in general instead of personal stuff. I don't want anything to do with it and I'm not taking sides either way. Hope it does not look like that. I enjoy reading both of your posts (neil & jon). Just sayin'

[beauanderos]

It's much more fun when you bash each other for things specifically related to silver or the markets in general instead of personal stuff. I don't want anything to do with it and I'm not taking sides either way. Hope it does not look like that. I enjoy reading both of your posts (neil & jon). Just sayin'

I vehemently disagree with you.

[shinnosuke]

No, I'm done with that for now. I'm using Rodebaugh's bottom.

You may not want to use my bottom. It has a pretty big crack in it.

When did this forum turn into a gay porn site?

[beauanderos]

No, I'm done with that for now. I'm using Rodebaugh's bottom.

You may not want to use my bottom. It has a pretty big crack in it.

When did this forum turn into a gay porn site?

80% of dentists are gay, the other 20% are sadists
http://thepeoplescube.com/current-truth/gay-dentist-movie-a-critical-success-t422.html

[Engineer]

Please, stick to the facts about the futures market, where you said I am "absolutely incorrect". I will be very keenly interested to hear you entertaining explanantion as to how the futures market doesn't mechanically operate as a zero sum game the way I described.

Cheers!

The futures market is no more a zero sum game than a poker table in a casino. The house ALWAYS takes it's cut.

[neilgin1]

Jon, why do you think i brought Southwest? i was throwing you a 16 inch softball to swing at....it was a peace offering. i know your involvement there. Why you think i was talking about the Brent/WTI spread, Bakken, Williston, refining margins?....it was a peace offering, a common ground. You cant discern that?....i always want to talk, i'm just not going to take [shucks] from ANYBODY, so there it is.

Cheers?...or what?

What should I say? You are so kind after all the interesting personal sneering and jeering you made and now you throw a softball? (for what?)
Or, is this where folks start (mis)quoting biblical passages again.....
I don't think you know the scope of involvement with client x here or there and it doesn't really matter. There is nothing to prove.


Cheers!

what should you say?....why not say, "how ya doing neil?"......."i'm alright Jonny, whats up?"....put the past behind us, an reproachment of sorts...life' short, we dont HAVE to be at loggerheads...we might have different world views, but so what?....i;m guessing, just coz you used the word, "cheeky", along with cheers....without seeming nosy, and i'm not, are you British?...if so my bru, i love your mother country, worked there in 1989 for 4 months...just fell in lve with the place.

we just start a conversation, instead of being AT each other...i like the Brent/WTI spread too....havent looked at the price of Brent in ages, so i dont know the basis....but where you think the spread is headed?....things like that....but only if WANT...doesnt have to be forced, if you dont like me, you dont like me...maybe then we should agree not to post to or at one another, but it doesnt have to be that way...i'm willing, i'm not a bad guy...i'm really not. so, my hand is out Jon.

[Jonflyfish]

Please, stick to the facts about the futures market, where you said I am "absolutely incorrect". I will be very keenly interested to hear you entertaining explanantion as to how the futures market doesn't mechanically operate as a zero sum game the way I described.

Cheers!

The futures market is no more a zero sum game than a poker table in a casino. The house ALWAYS takes it's cut.

Categorically false. Please explain the mechanics of how trades are matched and how the house somehow takes a slice out of that. Remember, futures markets are mechanically different than equities where you may not be posting the bid or offer (however there are ways of doing that as well)
Keep in mind the mechanical bid,offer, execution parameters of exchange traded futures.
Oh, and please stop sending your replies as pm's then deleting them once realized that your message wasn't posted on the forum. Mechanically, that is easy to correct as well.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Jon, why do you think i brought Southwest? i was throwing you a 16 inch softball to swing at....it was a peace offering. i know your involvement there. Why you think i was talking about the Brent/WTI spread, Bakken, Williston, refining margins?....it was a peace offering, a common ground. You cant discern that?....i always want to talk, i'm just not going to take [shucks] from ANYBODY, so there it is.

Cheers?...or what?

What should I say? You are so kind after all the interesting personal sneering and jeering you made and now you throw a softball? (for what?)
Or, is this where folks start (mis)quoting biblical passages again.....
I don't think you know the scope of involvement with client x here or there and it doesn't really matter. There is nothing to prove.


Cheers!

what should you say?....why not say, "how ya doing neil?"......."i'm alright Jonny, whats up?"....put the past behind us, an reproachment of sorts...life' short, we dont HAVE to be at loggerheads...we might have different world views, but so what?....i;m guessing, just coz you used the word, "cheeky", along with cheers....without seeming nosy, and i'm not, are you British?...if so my bru, i love your mother country, worked there in 1989 for 4 months...just fell in lve with the place.

we just start a conversation, instead of being AT each other...i like the Brent/WTI spread too....havent looked at the price of Brent in ages, so i dont know the basis....but where you think the spread is headed?....things like that....but only if WANT...doesnt have to be forced, if you dont like me, you dont like me...maybe then we should agree not to post to or at one another, but it doesnt have to be that way...i'm willing, i'm not a bad guy...i'm really not. so, my hand is out Jon.

Neil- much easier to engage in constructive dialog with this tone than tossing imaginary negative connotations e.g. "Wide-eyed ditz" at the bar......right? I am a US citizen. A lot of time spent in the U.K. with LBMA primary dealer clients etc.

With that, yes Brent/WTI diff narrowing with a demand dropout in Europe and the seaway pipeline reversed from Cushing back to the gulf. Massive supply of seaborne refined products being re-routed from Europe to the the NY harbor as well.
Cargoes polka dotting the landscape. Interesting to note the velocity of demand drop off in Europe. Some very interesting market activity. Monitoring the CDS markets for interesting feedback.

Cheers!

[Engineer]

The futures market is no more a zero sum game than a poker table in a casino. The house ALWAYS takes it's cut.

Categorically false.

So all the costs of the exchange and the trader's salaries appear out of a vacuum? That's very interesting, and about as believable as other claims of perpetual motion machines.

[neilgin1]

Neil- much easier to engage in constructive dialog with this tone than tossing imaginary negative connotations e.g. "Wide-eyed ditz" at the bar......right? I am a US citizen. A lot of time spent in the U.K. with LBMA primary dealer clients etc.

With that, yes Brent/WTI diff narrowing with a demand dropout in Europe and the seaway pipeline reversed from Cushing back to the gulf. Massive supply of seaborne refined products being re-routed from Europe to the the NY harbor as well.
Cargoes polka dotting the landscape. Interesting to note the velocity of demand drop off in Europe. Some very interesting market activity. Monitoring the CDS markets for interesting feedback.

Cheers!

that IS good food for thought...indeed. LMBA, nice. i had the good fortune in 89, my time there, to be given an apt on Green Street right off Picadilly...as you know, right across from Green Park.....LBMA...man, that is a different world for sure. Europe IS that bad...i'm just ruminating...there's always some interesting spread to be getting into...look at the margins in coffee now...its a short hop to NOLA and the roasters...but you know what Jon, truth be told, i lost that taste for high risk, that fearlessness....i lost it. i know there's way to ameroliate risk, but i DO like being retired.....see, this is good, so i'll take this posture in further communications with you...nothing untoward, all the best, neil

[Jonflyfish]

The futures market is no more a zero sum game than a poker table in a casino. The house ALWAYS takes it's cut.

Categorically false.

So all the costs of the exchange and the trader's salaries appear out of a vacuum? That's very interesting, and about as believable as other claims of perpetual motion machines.

Do you know what the exchange fees are for liquid markets e.g Sp500 mini or crude? It's less than a rounding error. It's a small fraction of 1 tick. All in round turn cost is less than 1 tick. If you post a bid to go long and someone takes the other side you crossed with a zero spread. If you post 1 tick under the bid and get filled then you just made a net gain on the round turn transaction cost. There is no market maker standing in between transactions, unlike many other markets.
Traders who are not engaged in commercial hedging work off of P&L. You make money with good positions or that is the end. as a spec trader, you eat what you kill or you are eaten. There is no salary for that. Pure profit or loss outcome.

The trade crossing between counter parties has nothing to to with that. Mechanically that is a zero sum event. Salaries generally exist only for commercial hedging. Their goal is not to make money on the hedge. And there are multiple layers of governance to prevent that from attempting to be a profit center activity.

Any chance you can mechanically explain how the futures market is not a zero sum? I think you challenged this long ago and have yet to provide any detail to support your view against the facts.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Neil- much easier to engage in constructive dialog with this tone than tossing imaginary negative connotations e.g. "Wide-eyed ditz" at the bar......right? I am a US citizen. A lot of time spent in the U.K. with LBMA primary dealer clients etc.

With that, yes Brent/WTI diff narrowing with a demand dropout in Europe and the seaway pipeline reversed from Cushing back to the gulf. Massive supply of seaborne refined products being re-routed from Europe to the the NY harbor as well.
Cargoes polka dotting the landscape. Interesting to note the velocity of demand drop off in Europe. Some very interesting market activity. Monitoring the CDS markets for interesting feedback.

Cheers!

that IS good food for thought...indeed. LMBA, nice. i had the good fortune in 89, my time there, to be given an apt on Green Street right off Picadilly...as you know, right across from Green Park.....LBMA...man, that is a different world for sure. Europe IS that bad...i'm just ruminating...there's always some interesting spread to be getting into...look at the margins in coffee now...its a short hop to NOLA and the roasters...but you know what Jon, truth be told, i lost that taste for high risk, that fearlessness....i lost it. i know there's way to ameroliate risk, but i DO like being retired.....see, this is good, so i'll take this posture in further communications with you...nothing untoward, all the best, neil

That's cool Neil. I don't take high risk myself. Not necessary. Made entry in life to be retired myself but I seem to be passionate about what I do. Don't think I'll ever quit. The passion seems to continue growing after decades. Clients seem extremely happy and line up. Selectively I enjoy the complexity of working with the certain clients that make an enjoyable fit. If it ever becomes unenjoyable, I'll just sit and watch the russets grow on the farm. Hard to imagine that, however.

Cheers!

[SilverDragon72]

No, I'm done with that for now. I'm using Rodebaugh's bottom.

You may not want to use my bottom. It has a pretty big crack in it.

Good one!

[johnbrickner]

Neil, you seriously believe that Americans are not (in general) ignorant? That's astonishing to hear. They are.

no I don't Barry, because that would make it seem I am in some way "superior" to them, which I am not. No, they are not ignorant. I see them as "helpless and harassed, like sheep without a shepherd"...so rather them writing them off with arrogant disdain, (not meant to you) I would rather endeavor to share what I know with them, because I know, they have knowledge to share with me, that I don't possess.

and Barry, that has been the case so many times around here, i'm happy to say...too many times to outline to you in a post, but Barry, either we start embracing servanthood, esteeming others above ourselves, helping one another with knowledge, encouragement...binding us to each other...or...we play into the meme of "us versus them", which is just how certain folks want us, divided, hopeless and leaderless. if divided, we will fall.....in small tiny pockets every day. i'm hoping beyond hope a wave starts, and I for one, want to be right in the thick of it...tp pour any knowledge I might have unto others.

remember, Light always drives out the darkness....so may we be Lights...if that's idealistic, I happily plead guilty.

I'm a couple of days behind this conversation but, well said Neil! I might add "unaware" might be a good word to use when describing the general American public. Let's hope the "shepard" truly lives to serve.

[Engineer]

The futures market is no more a zero sum game than a poker table in a casino. The house ALWAYS takes it's cut.

Categorically false.

Do you know what the exchange fees are for liquid markets e.g Sp500 mini or crude? It's less than a rounding error.

According to your hypothesis, that fee would have to be zero. Otherwise it couldn't be a zero sum game.

Any chance you can mechanically explain how the futures market is not a zero sum?

No need, as you've already proven yourself wrong. What other fees are you conveniently ignoring? Storage fees? Margin fees? Assay fees? Delivery fees? Various account fees unrelated to trading?

The house ALWAYS takes it's cut, and the futures market is NOT a zero sum game.

[johnbrickner]

I really liked neil's response to barry's "ignorant" comment.

We are all ignorant. The sooner you accept that the better off you will be.

The "know it all" get HAMMERED in all areas of life. I think a wise man realizes how ignorant he is.

This is a fact: None of you KNOW why this metals market drop happened. But a lot of you behave as if you do and now you argue over who is ignorant.

Debt is bad, you leverage? You better think it through. Accept the fact you are IGNORANT, or you will get slaughtered.

If you point your finger at another American and classify him as ignorant you are misdirecting your focus.

I say this to all my friends here. You are ignorant. You do not posses the knowledge to navigate life or your finances or you silver management error free.

It is what it is. Two weeks ago I bought ASEs at 30 and was happy.

Make the decision to be happy today. I'm a stacker and will lower my average cost basis. 20 years from now, if I'm alive, my toes will be tappin

But truthfully, I am "ignorant" of the outcome of that prediction.

Thogey, well said! I might add the more we know, the more we become aware of what we don't know.

[Jonflyfish]

The futures market is no more a zero sum game than a poker table in a casino. The house ALWAYS takes it's cut.

Categorically false.

Do you know what the exchange fees are for liquid markets e.g Sp500 mini or crude? It's less than a rounding error.

According to your hypothesis, that fee would have to be zero. Otherwise it couldn't be a zero sum game.

Any chance you can mechanically explain how the futures market is not a zero sum?

No need, as you've already proven yourself wrong. What other fees are you conveniently ignoring? Storage fees? Margin fees? Assay fees? Delivery fees? Various account fees unrelated to trading?

The house ALWAYS takes it's cut, and the futures market is NOT a zero sum game.

Selective partial quotations taken out of context do not prove your case. Less than 1 tick rounds down to zero. Positive slippage as conveniently ignored of +1 tick Is well, +1 without rounding. There are no margin fees, assay fees, delivery fees, various account fees associated with a futures trade being crossed between parties. Most of those fees do exist in the physical markets however, making them very inefficient for trading. But futures ARE a zero sum game. Again, I ask you to please prove otherwise. The burden of proof is with you. You were very insistent that you can imperially prove that the futures markets that match billions daily to not be a zero sum game. Perhaps I ought to post wiki references like you Nah- it's up to you to prove your case.
And remember WTI and Brent are NOT refined products as you had suggested.
Cheers!

[Engineer]

Less than 1 tick rounds down to zero. Positive slippage as conveniently ignored of +1 tick rounds up.

So you're saying rounding down to zero equals zero, and it's the rounding that makes it a zero sum game? If that were true, I could claim there are no plane crashes or firearm deaths in the US.

The burden of proof is with you. You were very insistent that you can imperially prove that the futures markets that match billions daily to not be a zero sum game.

Categorically false. You're continuing to twist my words just as you have throughout this conversation. I called BS on your claim, and you've been hounding me for proof ever since. (I don't even know what imperial proof is, so please feel free to explain)

Perhaps I ought to post wiki references like you it's up to you to prove your case.

You've posted nothing to prove your case, but using your logic on rounding, I can state that since most Wiki articles are correct, then all Wiki articles must be correct. Am I wrong on how you think that works?

Please do post some proof that the futures markets are a zero sum game. I contend that the various fees equate to a house cut, which means it is not zero sum. It's up to you to prove "your" case...which seems to be based outside the rules of math.

After we've settled that, we can move on to your claim that a "bucket shop dealer" holding back inventory is "extortion", while traders holding back inventory to take advantage of rising prices upholds the integrity of the market.


Back to the topic at hand...Silver is still bouncing around $23.28, and gold seems to be holding on to this morning's gains. I'm feeling a little more confident in the markets, but still worried about a general market crash taking them down further.

[natsb88]

Futures are, in theory, zero sum minus fees. Clearing houses don't exist for free. And since clearing houses keep the books, who's to say they don't sell a few extra unmatched shorts to their buddies...nobody would find out unless everybody tried to cash out simultaneously, right? Speculation, no proof. But I don't have the (alarmingly) blind trust in such institutions that some exhibit.

Zero sum through the trades may be, the bigger issue in the silver market is the shear volume of contracts versus physical inventory. I just glanced at the current contracts on the COMEX website and came up with 421,715,000 ounces. Then I looked at today's inventory report which shows a combined total inventory of 165,354,438 ounces. There are 2.5x more contract ounces than physical ounces, and that's a fairly low ratio compared to where it has been in the past. So how does a market of "integrity and stability" routinely promise to deliver many times the amount of metal that actually exists? Obviously they get away with it, cashing out instead of delivering physical, but how does that type of activity represent a "stable and trusted" market? Because it sounds more like a shell game to me.

[Treetop]

definitely have to agree with the above. there is no integrity in an inflated market. I dont see how anyone could argue true price discovery can happen under such a paradigm. to date I have yet to see an argument for that stance that didnt sound like emotional ramblings to me.

[OneBiteAtATime]

So 23 is the new norm. where to go from here? I hear arguments for 18 and I hear arguments for 25, what direction are we going guys? and why?

[Engineer]

:roll: So 23 is the new norm. where to go from here? I hear arguments for 18 and I hear arguments for 25, what direction are we going guys? and why?

With current premiums for physical in hand, I don't think they can push paper much lower without runs on the warehouse. With dealers everywhere out of stock, back ordered, or with sky high premiums, putting together a group buy for a thousand ounce bar at spot is getting more tempting by the day.