Silver - Time to Sell?

[HelloMeteor]

I'm just worried about a crash like back in 1980 or thereabouts.

[blackrabbit]

I don't think a crash is going to happen anytime soon. Maybe a correction, even a big one down to lower 20's, but then right back up. The currency wars are still raging. QE2 is in effect. QE3 will be coming up after that. Then probably world war and/or various revolutions/counter-revolutions. I am no expert but it seems like this is going to play out differently than the eighties.

[Treetop]

Even if the manipulators DID get it to drop to 15 or even 10.... It wont be there very long.... Just dont go to kitco, for a few months and your heart will be fine.....

[HelloMeteor]

Even if the manipulators DID get it to drop to 15 or even 10.... It wont be there very long.... Just dont go to kitco, for a few months and your heart will be fine.....

If it goes to 10 I'm buying a 1000oz bar.

[Treetop]

yeah that to....

[slickeast]

Even if the manipulators DID get it to drop to 15 or even 10.... It wont be there very long.... Just dont go to kitco, for a few months and your heart will be fine.....

If it goes to 10 I'm buying a 1000oz bar.

If it goes to 10 , I am going to back my truck up and fill it will silver.


We might be saying this in the near future " If it goes down to $25 I am gonna....."

[beauanderos]

Two or three years from now the current price of silver will be equal to the daily fluctuations. As the prices increases the amplitude of the volatility spikes will increase commensurately. We most recently had a short-lived 7% pullback. At $700 an ounce silver that would be a drop of $49 an ounce.

[HelloMeteor]

Two or three years from now the current price of silver will be equal to the daily fluctuations. As the prices increases the amplitude of the volatility spikes will increase commensurately. We most recently had a short-lived 7% pullback. At $700 an ounce silver that would be a drop of $49 an ounce.

You really think it will get to $700. Just based on inflation?

[stateofmind]

I learned my first true lesson in money when I was 13, buying silver during the "minibubble" of 2007-2008, buying all the way up to $21 an ounce and then watching it drop to $11. In the run-up, everyone was shouting, "BUY! BUY! BUY!". Every fed meeting the price would shoot up another dollar or two. All the investors were exalted by the high prices. People were spouting the same kind of rationalizations then as many are now. Then, the nearly year-long correction started, all the way to February of the next year.
Of course, no one wanted to admit they were wrong. Nearly EVERYONE was sure that silver was on its way back up, so we needed to hang on. I eventually got tired of the downward spiral and sold at $11.50, I believe I got $13 on the ounce for generic rounds, ones which I had paid $22 for. I lost $700 in 2008 from silver, which was a huge amount of money to me at a time when I was making $25 a week.

Not many saw the stock crash coming, specifically in the general sheep population which do not generally graze in this forum. However, history does repeat itself...but this time I'm SHORT on silver(CDE and SLW) and have been since silver was $23.

The general long-term trend is upwards. However, imagine if you were buying at the peak of that "minibubble". It would have taken you 2.5 years to regain your losses. If you buy at the top of this bubble, how long will it take to regain your losses if/when the price goes spiraling down?

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

I learned my first true lesson in money when I was 13, buying silver during the "minibubble" of 2007-2008, buying all the way up to $21 an ounce and then watching it drop to $11.

Of course, no one wanted to admit they were wrong. Nearly EVERYONE was sure that silver was on its way back up, so we needed to hang on. I eventually got tired of the downward spiral and sold at $11.50, I believe I got $13 on the ounce for generic rounds, ones which I had paid $22 for. I lost $700 in 2008 from silver, which was a huge amount of money to me at a time when I was making $25 a week.

Not many saw the stock crash coming, specifically in the general sheep population which do not generally graze in this forum. However, history does repeat itself...but this time I'm SHORT on silver(CDE and SLW) and have been since silver was $23.

The general long-term trend is upwards. However, imagine if you were buying at the peak of that "minibubble". It would have taken you 2.5 years to regain your losses. If you buy at the top of this bubble, how long will it take to regain your losses if/when the price goes spiraling down?

Oh, how I wish I could have bought your silver at the bottom of the last dip! Dealers refused to sell at spot in this town at that time. The best I could manage was $17. I bought all I could afford then 'cause I knew it would go back up to at least $25. By my way of thinking, it really should be at about $50.

I don't think most of us here a Real Cent were caught flat-footed in 2008. It had been predicted for years by contrarians.

State of Mind, it is easy to tell you are very firm in your convictions, so, please tell us what the best investment is out there right now. Where do you invest your money?

[JJM]

Shorting silver?











Ouch...

[stateofmind]

I learned my first true lesson in money when I was 13, buying silver during the "minibubble" of 2007-2008, buying all the way up to $21 an ounce and then watching it drop to $11.

Of course, no one wanted to admit they were wrong. Nearly EVERYONE was sure that silver was on its way back up, so we needed to hang on. I eventually got tired of the downward spiral and sold at $11.50, I believe I got $13 on the ounce for generic rounds, ones which I had paid $22 for. I lost $700 in 2008 from silver, which was a huge amount of money to me at a time when I was making $25 a week.

Not many saw the stock crash coming, specifically in the general sheep population which do not generally graze in this forum. However, history does repeat itself...but this time I'm SHORT on silver(CDE and SLW) and have been since silver was $23.

The general long-term trend is upwards. However, imagine if you were buying at the peak of that "minibubble". It would have taken you 2.5 years to regain your losses. If you buy at the top of this bubble, how long will it take to regain your losses if/when the price goes spiraling down?

Oh, how I wish I could have bought your silver at the bottom of the last dip! Dealers refused to sell at spot in this town at that time. The best I could manage was $17. I bought all I could afford then 'cause I knew it would go back up to at least $25. By my way of thinking, it really should be at about $50.

I don't think most of us here a Real Cent were caught flat-footed in 2008. It had been predicted for years by contrarians.

State of Mind, it is easy to tell you are very firm in your convictions, so, please tell us what the best investment is out there right now. Where do you invest your money?

I have 40% invested in the Vanguard Growth Index Fund, which I bought near the beginning of June. I also have 25% split between short positions of CDE and SLW, with the remaining 35% in a no-penalty CD in case of a stock market crash or a margin call, which I'll probably move into a brokerage account soon. Will begin selling VIGRX @ 34 in 20% increments every day until sold, as I feel a correction will be arriving in stocks as well.
Short on SLW @ 27.82
Short on CDE @ 20.95
Long on VIGRX @ 26.07

[Market Harmony]

...but this time I'm SHORT on silver(CDE and SLW) and have been since silver was $23

Your strategy is weak because you have not set any targets. In a game of chess, you never simply say to yourself "I'm going to to play defensively or offensively." No, you play to win or at minimum to draw. There are times in the game when you have to be offensive or defensive, but you should always be thinking of the end game. Being long or short is anybody's option, but you have to be sure that you are either one of these at the right time.

When setting up an attack in chess, you do not make that first big move until all of your pieces are properly set up. A premature move spells disaster and your strategy fails because you didn't stick to a plan.

Your plan for SLW and CDE is just like a errant move in chess. You made it before planning the next moves in advance. Even though it may have been the right move once everything else is in place, the time you chose to make that move exposes your position to attack from the other side. And now you are stuck having to adjust your plan for a draw.

This could end up being a very expensive lesson for you. But tuition must be paid if you are to be a student of the market. My suggestion is that you outline a plan to get out of your current position at the smallest loss possible, or even a draw. Hedge against yourself if you can, and PREPARE for the next moves down the line. You made a mistake and you have dug yourself into a hole. The first thing you need to do when you find yourself in these positions is to STOP DIGGING.

You may not appreciate my hard line approach, but you will thank me in the long run. Be honest with yourself and admit to yourself that you have erred. That itself will be the least expensive thing you can do which will give you the best results. You are in the red. You timed everything wrong. You didn't properly plan. You didn't protect your position. You are now fully exposed and taking injuries. Retrench and bandage the wounded.

[beauanderos]

Good advice, Michael, SLW shorts will slaughter any who dare, CDE not so much We all view life jaundiced by our own particular experiences, what does not make sense to others is rational to ourselves. I can understand how a bitter memory, held for years and years, could entrench one's thinking that "I'll never let THAT happen again." But two wrongs don't make a right. And, in answer to an earlier question... yes, I do see $700, more likely $1000 silver coming, perhaps as early as two years from now as precious metals go exponential in gains (but in large part propelled by an ever-accelerating loss of value in the dollar). There is really no limit to how high real money can soar when the zombie dollar succombs. No matter the sacrifice necessary... don't sell your holdings, the day is quickly approaching when you won't be able to replace them at any price, regardless of "dips." It's gonna get really ugly, folks. I can already sense that my 4k monthly pension is going to help me buy groceries, and nothing else, when my other predictions materialize. For any who doubt how high precious metals can climb in value (based on dollar valuations), and the rapidity with which it can occur, take the time to read a bit on Weimar Republic hyperinflation. Sorry to be so grim, but some members are quibbling about making and taking small profits... when what we are really discussing is financial survival.

[theo]

I agree that the risk of a short to intermediate pullback in PMs is real and that one should prepare that possibility. But what if that pullback occurs from $40 down to say $28? Anybody shorting at $23 will still be will still in the red and might have to wait a lot longer than 2.5 years to recoup their investment.

As for me I have a large amount of my investments in PMs along with positions in oil and natural gas. However, my feeling is that any PM pullback will be accompanied by a strong decline in the overall market, so I have a moderate position in an ETF that shorts the S&P and about a 10% cash position. This will allow me to take advantage of any bargains that might appear. However, if that pullback never happens (also a real possibility) I'm still in fine shape. Keep in mind that I am NOT an expert.

[beauanderos]

I agree that the risk of a short to intermediate pullback in PMs is real and that one should prepare that possibility. But what if that pullback occurs from $40 down to say $28? Anybody shorting at $23 will still be will still in the red

Define "pullback." We're in a new paradigm here, because people fail to realize that the increasing valuation of precious metals is, in large part, merely a long overdue repricing driven by the dropping purchasing power of the dollar. I haven't seen this addressed anywhere, but looking ahead just a bit, what one could hypothesize will occur in the precious metals markets is unlike what we have experienced before, precisely because the dollar is destabilizing. So if one were to visualize a spectrum of technical analysis depicting what we are accustomed to on the left end of an array... as precious metals continue to increase in value driven by supply issues, impelled higher by investment demand, and boosted as if by rocket propulsion as shorts are squeezed... all the while provided added impetus by global devaluation of ALL fiat currencies, then as you view the middle of an array what you will see is an acceleration developing. The daily gains will grow incrementally larger than they had been before. If a one percent gain used to represent a good day, that might easily become the norm, and a good day might need to jump two to three percent to cause wonder. Simultaneously, a pullback might only be half the size as before, and last only a fraction of the time that earlier ones did. We are seeing that, to some extent, already. Pullbacks are not as deep, and are short-lived. What then, might we expect on the right end of an array depicting this spectrum? As we begin an approach to a parabolic ascent, which accelerates exponentially the farther you project, you can expect that pricing valuations will increase percentage-wise on a daily basis. Pullbacks may be reduced to merely what is now considered periods of consolidation (so the market can "digest" it's gains). So... for all those expecting pullbacks before entering the markets, or attempting to "time" a strategy to game optimal profits by selling high and buying back lower, try to envision what I've described... because it WILL come true in a continuing bull market in precious metals. And will we have a continuing bull? Is the dollar growing stronger? Will fiscal conservatism rule the day resulting in economic policy taking a 180 degree turn, and draconian budget cuts ensue, along with taxing the people 100% of their income, enabling us to eliminate our national debt? Don't make me laugh. The precious metals bull will last as long as there are fiat currencies... anywhere.

[didou]

Good advice, Michael, SLW shorts will slaughter any who dare, CDE not so much We all view life jaundiced by our own particular experiences, what does not make sense to others is rational to ourselves. I can understand how a bitter memory, held for years and years, could entrench one's thinking that "I'll never let THAT happen again." But two wrongs don't make a right. And, in answer to an earlier question... yes, I do see $700, more likely $1000 silver coming, perhaps as early as two years from now as precious metals go exponential in gains (but in large part propelled by an ever-accelerating loss of value in the dollar). There is really no limit to how high real money can soar when the zombie dollar succombs. No matter the sacrifice necessary... don't sell your holdings, the day is quickly approaching when you won't be able to replace them at any price, regardless of "dips." It's gonna get really ugly, folks. I can already sense that my 4k monthly pension is going to help me buy groceries, and nothing else, when my other predictions materialize. For any who doubt how high precious metals can climb in value (based on dollar valuations), and the rapidity with which it can occur, take the time to read a bit on Weimar Republic hyperinflation. Sorry to be so grim, but some members are quibbling about making and taking small profits... when what we are really discussing is financial survival.

+1
I love that. The system can explode any moment now. The time for greed is over, it's time to play safe, don't risk anything for a small gain. Maybe they don't see the crisis as bad as i see it, or they are too young to be afraid of anything, but me i'm scare to death of what will happen soon. Doesn't matter what you want or need, you need to adapt to a different world that the one you lived in the last 20 years or it will get very bad for you.

I believe, like you do, that time has come to discuss financial survival it should take priority over anything else including a little gain or greed. And i will go further than that, i believe the time to discuss your own survival has come too and preparation for that should take priority over PM.

I buy food/water/health item, protection item, item to prevent depression and if there is money left i'm buying silver, the lowest price possible of course, but i don't care much about anything else. It doesn't matter if silver get up or down or what any people can say, i'm even prepared to loose some purchasing power with silver if that happen, in the end of the day i don't care because at least i will have SOME purchasing power. People holding paper will have none whatsoever.

[blackrabbit]

Beauanderos makes some good points there. This week shall be a real fascinating one to watch the markets. I still think a correction is coming, but the end of American world hegemony switching to China is going to be destabilizing to say the least. Financial World War 3 is still on and he who ends up with the real money is going to come out the winner. I just sold a few ounces of silver for some very nice profits but still have my main hoard. I still try to do some small buy low sell high swinging, as it keeps it fun for me, but am still holding most because Beauanderos may be right.

[beauanderos]

You're not going to get hurt playing with ten percent or so of your bullion holdings, trying to time sales and purchases to increase your ounces. Just don't go crazy and sell it all, just because of a nice one day jump in price, or fear that the new level is overbought and a selloff will ensue.

[Devil Soundwave]

Verrry funny, Eric Hey DS... how does the govt track your purchases off ebay (or in here) to apply the VAT? The honor system? As far as trying to time the market, guys... if you need to sell, then do it the same way you bought, in increments. Set yourself a limit, say ten ounces, that you will sell each month, regardless of the current price on that day.

I couldn't possibly comment...

[coppertone]

I buy silver in order to hold something of value. I will exchange it only for something of value.

[stateofmind]

...but this time I'm SHORT on silver(CDE and SLW) and have been since silver was $23

Your strategy is weak because you have not set any targets. In a game of chess, you never simply say to yourself "I'm going to to play defensively or offensively." No, you play to win or at minimum to draw. There are times in the game when you have to be offensive or defensive, but you should always be thinking of the end game. Being long or short is anybody's option, but you have to be sure that you are either one of these at the right time.

When setting up an attack in chess, you do not make that first big move until all of your pieces are properly set up. A premature move spells disaster and your strategy fails because you didn't stick to a plan.

Your plan for SLW and CDE is just like a errant move in chess. You made it before planning the next moves in advance. Even though it may have been the right move once everything else is in place, the time you chose to make that move exposes your position to attack from the other side. And now you are stuck having to adjust your plan for a draw.

This could end up being a very expensive lesson for you. But tuition must be paid if you are to be a student of the market. My suggestion is that you outline a plan to get out of your current position at the smallest loss possible, or even a draw. Hedge against yourself if you can, and PREPARE for the next moves down the line. You made a mistake and you have dug yourself into a hole. The first thing you need to do when you find yourself in these positions is to STOP DIGGING.

You may not appreciate my hard line approach, but you will thank me in the long run. Be honest with yourself and admit to yourself that you have erred. That itself will be the least expensive thing you can do which will give you the best results. You are in the red. You timed everything wrong. You didn't properly plan. You didn't protect your position. You are now fully exposed and taking injuries. Retrench and bandage the wounded.

You seem very wise regarding your investment approach. I apologize for not telling of my exit strategy. I will get out at a 30% loss or gain, or whenever I feel that silver has about bottomed out. As I feel a fall in silver is coming very soon, I am confident in my current position. At a 30% loss, I will stand to lose only about $1000, not counting my PM hoard and numismatic collection. That is a risk I am willing to take. If I hit a 30% loss, I will admit that I was wrong, however I do not think that I will be.

[Ardent Listener]

I'm holding, but I expect much more resistance at $30. But that's $30 we are now talking about.

[mightyhunter]

I have never seen a good time to sell. When you sell you are holding frn's(aka greenback's) and those tend to burn hole's in one's pockets.Sure you say you will keep to buy when there is another dip but then something happens and the cash you were saving to buy silver with is now gone and all you can to is go further in the hole when you buy more silver.We've all been there,done that. Hold on to what you have and be thankful that you have it.

[Redneck]

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