Silver is taking a dive

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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby stateofmind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:35 pm

This is the beginning of the correction. Not only is it my gut instinct, but the charts for today are signaling the start of a downtrend.
Image
See the huge price range today which ended up breaking the uptrend?
Three up days(illustrated by the white candlesticks) form the candlestick pattern known as Three White Soldiers, which is an extremely short-term bullish signal. The fact that the Three Soldiers did not result in more bullish activity shows how strong the bearish outlook is short-mid term.
Additionally, the fact that we had such a large price reversal after a serious up-day yesterday also signals future bearish activity.

Image
Also, in this three year chart, observe the unprecedented amount of volume we saw today.(Bars on the bottom) Large amounts of volume signal a reversal, whether bearish or bullish. Go to google finance and type in any stock ticker. You will notice large price swings correlate with large amounts of volume.
The bubble has popped.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Ardent Listener » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:25 pm

Like I said a couple of days ago, there is going to be a lot of resistance at $30. If it is manipulation then there were a lot of willing sellers at $29 to help it along. Any resistance in this red hot market is going to start to scare investors. With any luck, frighten silver prices back below $25 or maybe even scared silly down to $20 again.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby stateofmind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:27 pm

Agreed, Ardent. I could see silver tanking down to $21, very easily.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Devil Soundwave » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:36 pm

Ardent Listener wrote:Like I said a couple of days ago, there is going to be a lot of resistance at $30. If it is manipulation then there were a lot of willing sellers at $29 to help it along. Any resistance in this red hot market is going to start to scare investors. With any luck, frighten silver prices back below $25 or maybe even scared silly down to $20 again.



Kinda brings me back to my earlier question then. If You guys reckon there will be considerable resistance at $30; how can we ever expect to see the likes of $50 (or $100 or $1200 etc etc)?

Do you reckon that the long term investors just continuing to buy if it falls back will push it through the $30 barrier and then the scared might get emboldened again?
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby stateofmind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:52 pm

Levels of resistance are broken, which leads to new highs. Whenever the $30 level is broken(which will eventually happen, most likely early-mid next year), it results in an uptrend to create new highs, which over the long term results in higher resistance levels.
Silver cannot reach those heights until the dollar has been devalued to a huge extent, which will also take time. This bubble was brought on by speculation and it will correct itself which will lead to $30 level you speak of.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Country » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:58 pm

Certainly, a correction is needed after many days of jerky up moves. However, I think today's high volume down move was exacerbated by the announcement that SILVER futures traders had to put up more margin. We'll have to see if SILVER makes a plateau here at $27 and consolidates some of the preceeding past week's gains. Fundamentally, nothing has changed: the FED wants to inflate by dumping billions onto worldwide markets. IMHO, a consolidation period at these levels would be very bullish for SILVER.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Devil Soundwave » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:59 pm

I think I understand. Thanks. :)
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Thogey » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:18 pm

The new margin requirements you mentioned make lots of sense.

So does this fact: that the real economic conditions that drive the PM market have not changed so stay the course.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Ardent Listener » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:18 pm

Devil Soundwave wrote:I think I understand. Thanks. :)


Good. Be patient and play this out. If a 57 year old man who has been waiting since 1980 to see these prices again can be patient then so can you youngsters. :mrgreen:
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Devil Soundwave » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:26 pm

I was born in 1980. :D

I'm holding out for the seriously big bucks per ounce or the total economic crash, whichever comes first (though these are probably one and the same thing or so I gather). Either way, better than a savings account imo. :)
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby beauanderos » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:31 pm

I would surmise that in order to properly interpret technical analysis, one would need to correctly understand what is driving the high volume. Were all the buyers already in, so a top formed and rolled over with a few profit-takers inducing a waterfall event? I don't think so. Again, artificial means (increased margin) were employed to obtain a desired goal by those who wish to keep a cap on prices, and the sell-off induced by those unable to meet anticipated margin calls tomorrow produced a cascade of selling as stop-loss limits were triggered. When a market moves straight up or down, it is not because of natural phenomena. Yes, probably the moves upward were too rapid and the market needs time to consolidate and digest the gains. People were expecting a pullback because of the rapidity with which these previous gains occured. But you must remember, technical analysis depends on prior trends... and I would propose that all rules are off in the current environment of currency wars in a race to the bottom of depreciation. Do you think those in whose interest it is to short precious metals don't know how to read charts? Of course they do, and they understand the precise timing with which to introduce turmoil and volatility-induced uncertainty back into the markets to discourage participation and slow the rise. If they are having increased difficulty shorting without transparency, then they'll merely resort to some other trick like they did today. One thing we need to realize is... they are the enemy. They are extremely proficient at what they do, whether it be spreading propaganda, capping/slowing/reversing price rises, or generating phenomenal profits at the expense of longs and miners. Do not underestimate them. NEVER sell THEM short in what they might be able to accomplish. This is just one more reason to have physical as the core of your portfolio. Like Michael alludes to, when the physical shortage of silver finally rears it's head, then let's see what they attempt. One benefit of today? It induces holders of silver to liquidate and sell for "good prices" before the bottom falls out. The faster silver falls from weak hands into those holding for much higher prices the better, for it will accelerate the eventual parabolic ascent to multiples in price from where we are today. Just my long-winded humble opinion
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby stateofmind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:56 pm

Well, if you can't beat them then join them. I want to make it clear that I believe that the long-term trend is up. However, manipulation-induced or not, we are seeing the bubble that was manipulation-induced or not. There's nothing wrong with making a short-term profit. Its OK when silver prices fall to blame the manipulators, but when silver prices rise it is always based on fundamentals. :lol:
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby neilgin1 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:45 pm

Ardent Listener wrote:Like I said a couple of days ago, there is going to be a lot of resistance at $30. If it is manipulation then there were a lot of willing sellers at $29 to help it along. Any resistance in this red hot market is going to start to scare investors. With any luck, frighten silver prices back below $25 or maybe even scared silly down to $20 again.



"down to $20 again"....brother, from your mouth to God's Ear.

then we ramp up purchases, paper for silver, sounds like a good trade to me.

i sure do like this forum, seems like a lot good smart guys onboard, neil
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby neilgin1 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:47 pm

State of Mind,
really nice analysis, thank you brother.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Thogey » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:55 pm

BTW,

Welcome to Realcent! This is the best forum on the planet. Wait until this winter when it's cold outside cabin fever sets in.

Really great arguments here! Great discussions.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Thogey » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:56 pm

stateofmind wrote:Well, if you can't beat them then join them. I want to make it clear that I believe that the long-term trend is up. However, manipulation-induced or not, we are seeing the bubble that was manipulation-induced or not. There's nothing wrong with making a short-term profit. Its OK when silver prices fall to blame the manipulators, but when silver prices rise it is always based on fundamentals. :lol:
Image


Static charge and grass seed?
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby stateofmind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:06 pm

:lol:
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Thogey » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:13 pm

What is it?

Don't be a hard case like beauanderos!

What is it?
If I have the gift of prophesy, and know all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have all faith, so as to move mountains but do not have love I am nothing. And if I give all my possessions to feed the poor, and if I surrender my body to be burned but do not have love it profits me nothing.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Thogey » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:14 pm

Is it a photoshop deal?

C'mon man, give it up.
If I have the gift of prophesy, and know all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have all faith, so as to move mountains but do not have love I am nothing. And if I give all my possessions to feed the poor, and if I surrender my body to be burned but do not have love it profits me nothing.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby stateofmind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:23 pm

It's a bubble bursting, captured by a high speed camera.
I figured it would be easy to get...
:oops:
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby centavosdecobre » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:24 pm

Let´s get the price back down to $20-25 for a last hoorah and do some bargain hunting before the next surge upward. Not too fast just yet.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Thogey » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:28 pm

stateofmind wrote:It's a bubble bursting, captured by a high speed camera.
I figured it would be easy to get...
:oops:


You should have done a contest. That is a cool picure.
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby Thogey » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:31 pm

Makes sense though. Why the hell would you post a picture of seeds captured w/ static?

Duh
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby stateofmind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:40 pm

Don't beat yourself up. :P
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Re: Silver is taking a dive

Postby apdigs8 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 11:34 pm

I don't think we're anywhere near a bubble. I think this term is thrown around way way way too loosely, particularly by talking heads on tel avision. If I could ask 100 random people on the street and 10 knew how much silver was in a 1964 JFK half- that would be a huge huge sell signal.

When you can offer 100,000 random americans a 1 oz GAE for $100 and only 500 of them are willing to buy said GAE, then you are nowhere near a bubble. Once again, just my opinion...

silver is up what... 50 or 60% this year? Of course it's going to have a couple more down days on the way to 30, 300, 300,000... and beyond
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