PM Risk

[barrytrot]

As the gov't handouts are drying up, factory orders and jobs growth are coming under pressure.

The governments ability and most importantly DESIRE to hand out more money seems unlimited.

That doesn't create jobs, that fills pockets.

[Cu Later]

i got in silver @ 10 out @ 22 & back in again under 33
im feeling ok. funny stories though. poor guys. keep stackin

[Jonflyfish]

I write this with some hesitation due to the potential consequences of posting this here but I would be remiss for not doing so...
Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong but it looks increasingly more likely that over the coming months we will even break below $20 and get near $15 for silver. Gold could be seen @ $700-1000.
I know people will blast me for this. That's alright. I understand. There are many who will be 100% certain that this won't happen because that is what they want to believe. Perhaps the greatest level of caution should be reserved for them. The market will be the ultimate arbiter, not the latest and/or next "Buy NOW!" article written by a promoter or pusher from xyzGoldAndSilver.com
Cheers!

[rsk1963]

Are we talking recession?

[madman326]

I write this with some hesitation due to the potential consequences of posting this here but I would be remiss for not doing so...
Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong but it looks increasingly more likely that over the coming months we will even break below $20 and get near $15 for silver. Gold could be seen @ $700-1000.
I know people will blast me for this. That's alright. I understand. There are many who will be 100% certain that this won't happen because that is what they want to believe. Perhaps the greatest level of caution should be reserved for them. The market will be the ultimate arbiter, not the latest and/or next "Buy NOW!" article written by a promoter or pusher from xyzGoldAndSilver.com
Cheers!

i really hope your right jon. i have no money to put into silver right now, but in several months i may. i dont follow/ understand the PM market well at all. i buy when i can, saving for the long haul. in between i search rolls. if i worried where the bottom is, i would lose the little bit of hair that i have left on my head. i appreciate your views on the silver market. thanks,

madman326

[68Camaro]

I write this with some hesitation due to the potential consequences of posting this here but I would be remiss for not doing so...
Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong but it looks increasingly more likely that over the coming months we will even break below $20 and get near $15 for silver. Gold could be seen @ $700-1000.
I know people will blast me for this. That's alright. I understand. There are many who will be 100% certain that this won't happen because that is what they want to believe. Perhaps the greatest level of caution should be reserved for them. The market will be the ultimate arbiter, not the latest and/or next "Buy NOW!" article written by a promoter or pusher from xyzGoldAndSilver.com
Cheers!

Tough numbers if true. Well below the production cost of new gold, and starting to get down to the basic cost of new silver.

This all TA, or is there something else thrown in the mix?

I'm not seeing it myself, even in the TA, unless you're talking total economic collapse type stuff.

[SoFa]

I write this with some hesitation due to the potential consequences of posting this here but I would be remiss for not doing so...
Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong but it looks increasingly more likely that over the coming months we will even break below $20 and get near $15 for silver. Gold could be seen @ $700-1000.
I know people will blast me for this. That's alright. I understand. There are many who will be 100% certain that this won't happen because that is what they want to believe. Perhaps the greatest level of caution should be reserved for them. The market will be the ultimate arbiter, not the latest and/or next "Buy NOW!" article written by a promoter or pusher from xyzGoldAndSilver.com
Cheers!

I won't blast you. But you didn't present anything to back up your prediction except to say that you see something (that you haven't specified) in the charts for the dollar and the PMs.

[fb101]

So far all I want to say is Thanks JFF for the heads up.
As usual, I'd sure like to hear the "When " as well as the what - puts can expire before they come into money....
I'd like to be sure whether better to buy long and sell covered calls or just buy puts.
Event though I planned on selling some silver anyway, the majority of the hard assets will not be going for sale, but
I don't mind playing the paper game
Every answer generates two more questions.

[My2Cents]

I write this with some hesitation due to the potential consequences of posting this here but I would be remiss for not doing so...
Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong but it looks increasingly more likely that over the coming months we will even break below $20 and get near $15 for silver. Gold could be seen @ $700-1000.
I know people will blast me for this. That's alright. I understand. There are many who will be 100% certain that this won't happen because that is what they want to believe. Perhaps the greatest level of caution should be reserved for them. The market will be the ultimate arbiter, not the latest and/or next "Buy NOW!" article written by a promoter or pusher from xyzGoldAndSilver.com
Cheers!

At those prices, I'd mortgage the kids to buy more. I can agree with you that there's somewhat of a 'bubble' (as I'd gander to say), but once you factor in the money supply, our lack of being able to pay our creditors, and our lack of having any real means to pay down our national debt or fund our liabilities.... I think (as many do) that gold and silver are WAYYYY undervalued as a commodity.

[everything]

Maybe we could see QE again this year and silver could be up to $40 again, that might be time to exit positions.
I kind of figured if we were going that low, that it might take some time, like until interest rates started going up, where the commodity aspect may eventually suffer, but I figured maybe 2014 until see prices that low, but not this year. Really though, physical investors, could go on strike and stop buying as well, maybe help find that super dip bottom in the market one day.

[theo]

I write this with some hesitation due to the potential consequences of posting this here but I would be remiss for not doing so...
Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong but it looks increasingly more likely that over the coming months we will even break below $20 and get near $15 for silver. Gold could be seen @ $700-1000.
I know people will blast me for this. That's alright. I understand. There are many who will be 100% certain that this won't happen because that is what they want to believe. Perhaps the greatest level of caution should be reserved for them. The market will be the ultimate arbiter, not the latest and/or next "Buy NOW!" article written by a promoter or pusher from xyzGoldAndSilver.com
Cheers!

I appreciate your opinion, but nothing short of a market collapse accompanied by a serious liquidity crisis and significant demand destruction will bring silver lower than $26. This, of course, is possible but I don't see it happening during an election year.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Gfriend gave me this tip a few weeks ago. But, she got it from some CPA banker types, who told her PM prices are going to be taking another hit yet. Something to do with rates going up in 2014, debt overhang is going to become more of a substantial problem (of some kind), as if we did not already know. Hard to believe about the dollar strength, should help mask inflation some.

Don't you know that CPA banker types are always correct. They told us to buy the Nasdaq during the internet bubble, they told us to buy a house during the housing bubble. Banksters want the entire WORLD in debt... they want to own everything and everyone. Any dollar strength we have had is only temporary and manipulated.

The economic problems have not changed and the debt is continuing to skyrocket. The US fiat funny money is worth less and less everyday. There is a 20-22% (real) unemployment rate in the US... those jobs are NEVER coming back.

Buying/owning PMs is the only game in town. There is no other way to preserve your wealth. If I get rich as a side effect from holding PMs, so be it.

[SoFa]

I appreciate your opinion, but nothing short of a market collapse accompanied by a serious liquidity crisis and significant demand destruction will bring silver lower than $26. This, of course, is possible but I don't see it happening during an election year.

From the futures chart, silver has rallied hard off the 26 level three times since early 2011. That's a strong support level. Note that the volume was not impressive the last two times it rallied off 26.

The highs have been decreasing, setting up a descending triangle. The sell offs have been on strong volume.

Manipulation aside, this suggests distribution by large holders (you don't get such massive volume from retail traders, it's the market movers dumping or massively shorting).

If it were to break the 26 level, it would most likely drop fast and hard.

That's the way I see it. I would buy on a bounce off the 26 level or a convincing (high volume) breakout above the upper trend line. I would sell on a break below 26 or another rejection at the trend line. I've actually chosen to play this on both sides via options as the implied volatility has decreased greatly in 2012.

Gold is actually very interesting right here because it's trading at trend line support (over 3 years trend). I

[neilgin1]

all i got to say, is try bidding for quality rolls in todays physical market.

sometimes you have to slash and burn, but this year i try and finese it a bit...not all of us have senile elderly farmers with massive jars of quarters to predate on....(hahhhahhah....i couldnt resist Cu...i'm just breaking your balls!! hahhhah)

but its a hard market to bid in....thats all i know. i was watching a roll of 41 wash's gem/bu, thinking how to get in, and they trade at 36 times face.....couldn't pull the pin and amp it up to 37, or 38 times.

[barrytrot]

all i got to say, is try bidding for quality rolls in todays physical market.

sometimes you have to slash and burn, but this year i try and finese it a bit...not all of us have senile elderly farmers with massive jars of quarters to predate on....(hahhhahhah....i couldnt resist Cu...i'm just breaking your balls!! hahhhah)

but its a hard market to bid in....thats all i know. i was watching a roll of 41 wash's gem/bu, thinking how to get in, and they trade at 36 times face.....couldn't pull the pin and amp it up to 37, or 38 times.

I am still not sure why "quality rolls" indicate anything.

They would be simultaneously disconnected from bullion and from numismatic.

Why not judge based on the price of ASE's? Which is essentially exactly the same premium as it was 2 years ago?

"quality rolls" is also something that I've only heard you discuss in detail, other than the "Greysheet" of course. And in those cases each roll type has a numismatic premium based on it's particular scarcity.

[Jonflyfish]

Lift or roll forward hedges at your leisure.

Cheers!

[NHsorter]

Hi everyone, I'm kinda slow. Could you someone please clarify what JFF is saying in the last post? I think that he is predicting continued short term weakness for gold. But I am not polished up on my trader lingo and I guess that I am easily confused. TIA

[OneBiteAtATime]

Hi everyone, I'm kinda slow. Could you someone please clarify what JFF is saying in the last post? I think that he is predicting continued short term weakness for gold. But I am not polished up on my trader lingo and I guess that I am easily confused. TIA

Lol. I just googled lifting hedges and I'm more confused now than when I started.

[beauanderos]

Hi everyone, I'm kinda slow. Could you someone please clarify what JFF is saying in the last post? I think that he is predicting continued short term weakness for gold. But I am not polished up on my trader lingo and I guess that I am easily confused. TIA

Lol. I just googled lifting hedges and I'm more confused now than when I started.

JFF attempting to share with us is like a PhD trying to teach kindergarten. Alot gets lost in the transmission. Pass me the graham crackers and milk, eh? It's nap time. Hoping that when I awaken this bad nightmare will have passed. And you can be sure that TPTB will take advantage of this ostensible downturn like any other to crush metals... just check out the minute by minute feed on netdania to see them in action.

[SoFa]

I don't know what he means. He's too cryptic.

My own opinion is silver is going down at least another 1-2 dollars/oz. It will fill the gaps below.

[NHsorter]

Hi everyone, I'm kinda slow. Could you someone please clarify what JFF is saying in the last post? I think that he is predicting continued short term weakness for gold. But I am not polished up on my trader lingo and I guess that I am easily confused. TIA

Lol. I just googled lifting hedges and I'm more confused now than when I started.

Same problem here. I thought I knew what he meant, but I was not 100% sure so I goggled it and now I am even more confused. Since you could hedge in either direction, lifting your hedge could be something that you would do to protect against a drop or a rise. I think. I assume in this case, JFF assumes that this audience is all long, so he is trying to instruct us to sell out gold futures contracts.

I had been playing with NUGT for a while. Kept trying to catch the falling knife. Jumped out a few times and then back in on dips, only to see it drop further. Finally a few days back I switched to DUST. So the last couple days have been good to me. BUT not even close to recovering the beating that I have taken with NUGT. Back to where I was about 6 mos. ago.

[db23]

My own opinion is silver is going down at least another 1-2 dollars/oz. It will fill the gaps below.

I bet if it does we start seeing a spike in premiums again.

[OneBiteAtATime]

Lift or roll forward hedges at your leisure.

Cheers!

This means pawn your idle electric guitar and buy more metal, right?

[Jonflyfish]

Sorry folks. Didn't realize my posts were so cryptic. As per the topic of the thread and since the beginning, risk in PM prices were alerted. In basic risk management for commodities, "hedging" is how you lay off risk (offset).
Basically the whole idea has been to use risk management to "protect" your physical protection, should you choose to do so. Most have indicated that they don't care what the price is (even if they watch every tick like a hawk )
Some who look to dollar cost average will lift (end) a portion of the hedge as they buy at lower levels (and have more capital to buy more from the proceeds of the hedge). Others simply wait to offload the hedge for the entire position once the models reverse course. At that point in time the position is exposed to price. Also, the position can be increased by using the proceeds of the hedge to purchase more of the commodity at the lower prices.

Thank you for the great comments and ideas. Perhaps there is use for that old Gibson after all

Cheers!

[Oakair]

Hi everyone, I'm kinda slow. Could you someone please clarify what JFF is saying in the last post? I think that he is predicting continued short term weakness for gold. But I am not polished up on my trader lingo and I guess that I am easily confused. TIA

Lol. I just googled lifting hedges and I'm more confused now than when I started.

Same problem here. I thought I knew what he meant, but I was not 100% sure so I goggled it and now I am even more confused. Since you could hedge in either direction, lifting your hedge could be something that you would do to protect against a drop or a rise. I think. I assume in this case, JFF assumes that this audience is all long, so he is trying to instruct us to sell out gold futures contracts.

I had been playing with NUGT for a while. Kept trying to catch the falling knife. Jumped out a few times and then back in on dips, only to see it drop further. Finally a few days back I switched to DUST. So the last couple days have been good to me. BUT not even close to recovering the beating that I have taken with NUGT. Back to where I was about 6 mos. ago.

Ive been playing with USLV ...

Had a good day where it jumped about 10%...so i kept trading it as it was highly volatile...

And then JFF prognosticated and I exited my position upon some empirical analysis...

I thought about going into ZSL, but I think Im going to keep some cap. dry for palladium and crude...PMs are scaring me...(although i still see 40's highly likely very quickly once the reversal comes about)