$50 Silver

[Recyclersteve]

You mentioned that the vast majority of traders get hurt. Now I am not talking about trading.

I had almost 20 years experience in the business and have done over 15,000 trades with my own personal money over the years, so it is not quite as bad as you might think. If I was young and knew the market would have a sharp pullback sometime between now and several years from now, that would still be ok assuming I didn't go all in at one time.

If you open an account and then fund it periodically with a certain percent of your paycheck there is absolutely nothing wrong with the markets going down 20-60%. For someone who is retirement age, that is often different. Even some retired folks could get away with a big pullback if for instance they had a $20 million net worth and only needed $3-5 million to live comfortably.

The main thing is to be in the market to participate over the long-term to make an average of 7-8% per year. It provides diversification to someone who is heavily involved in other types of investments (i.e., coins).

The problem with saying "the time to load up on PM's is now" is that you could have said this for years. There have been a number of postings on this site from people who appear to have loaded up a few years ago and are squirming quite a bit these days. I totally agree that silver is VERY UNDERVALUED RIGHT NOW. But that doesn't mean that it won't continue to be undervalued for another 5-10 years. The thing about diversification is that it can work to your advantage if done right.

For instance, think about a person who has a lot of money and is in real estate. Let's say they were buying distressed properties in Detroit and they owned dozens of homes. They could have thought "These homes are a bargain. I'm gonna buy more." And then the city declared bankruptcy in 2013. If that same person bought some real estate in Seattle in addition to the Detroit holdings, then they had at least part of their portfolio that was doing very well. Yes the Seattle real estate was much more expensive than Detroit, but many would say it was worth it (or they wouldn't have been buying). We can debate the bubble thing forever. Chinese real estate has been in a bubble for a long time (I'd say at least a decade or so since they built a bunch of ghost cities capable of housing over 1 million people where virtually nobody lives- Google "China ghost city" to see some amazing images). I'm sure Youtube has some amazing videos as well.

Back to Seattle/Detroit- with the diversified investor they could now be selling some of their Seattle holdings and perhaps buying even more Detroit real estate as Detroit (finally) is now starting to look a bit better (after about 51 years of hell since the 1967 riots). That would get their portfolio more back in line. To me, I'd want to be even more diversified than real estate in just two locations. But at least I've glossed over the topic of diversification.

Let's go to the area of base and precious metals. If someone was all in on silver, they missed out on some very nice moves made by zinc, copper, nickel and aluminum over the past year or so.

Silver is a small and manipulated market- complicated subject but paper silver (futures if you will) are about 100x (or more) the value of real physical silver. If you are not extremely wealthy I don't know how you can get into the head of billionaires who may speak with each other to plot out strategies to make money. And, of course, some of these billionaires hate each other (i.e., Trump vs. Bezos) and would love to see other suffer. So they sell short an investment that is vulnerable (example: silver has taken many a plunge over the years between perhaps midnight and 3am EST when most markets are closed) to scare others into panicking at the wrong time.

Without naming the person, I remember very well the time right after the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks. The markets had just opened for trade again and CNBC had a well known prominent investor (name withheld for my own good reasons) talking about investing in companies in the United States. He said "I like this company and that one" (he named about 4-5 companies) He said I'm buying all of these. What he didn't know was that I could see his account live as he was on national TV. He was lying! He was selling all of them short (betting on them going down further) right as he told the world he was buying them!

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

The main thing is to be in the market to participate over the long-term to make an average of 7-8% per year.

So many rely on that assumption. Timing is everything. If you have experience in the markets like you say, you know now is NOT the time to be in the stock market. There are many, many reasons why, but it would take too long to list them all. The main reason is DEBT.

You seem to have a lot of faith, hope and trust in the current financial debt/scam system. I wish you good luck with your stock exposure.

[Recyclersteve]

Right now I am 85-90% cash by the way. But I still look for opportunities every day.

[silverflake]

Saw this headline on one of the daily newsletters I read: "World's Largest Fund Company Gives Up on Precious Metals". Vanguard precious metals (VGPMX) fund is restructuring to broaden its holdings (and lessen its precious metals/mining holdings)....

GDX is pennies away from 52 week low. Ratio of S&P500 to PHLX is at the 2nd Highest ratio ever.

Is this a sign of a bottom?

Stack while it's cheap boys and girls.

[Recyclersteve]

Stack while it's cheap boys and girls.

I'd add this disclaimer: "Don't stack if you can't afford to hold for a while and if you can't afford to buy even more at a cheaper price later."

[silverflake]

Recyclersteve, I would reword my stacking command by borrowing a statement I have read here from other shrewder reacenters and say:

Buy gold and silver now. If the price goes down, buy some more gold and silver. If the price goes up, buy some more gold and silver.

[Recyclersteve]

Sounds good to me. I just feel sorry for those who are new to metals, go all in, and then ask why they are down 10%-15% a year or two later. Of course I'd mention that it might indeed be worth doubling down at the new lower price. Sometimes I have gotten the response "But I don't have any more to money to add to my position." And, of course, I feel sorry as they get frustrated and sell and go into something like Bitcoin. By the way, I'm not a Bitcoin fan or expert by any stretch.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Sounds good to me. I just feel sorry for those who are new to metals, go all in, and then ask why they are down 10%-15% a year or two later. Of course I'd mention that it might indeed be worth doubling down at the new lower price. Sometimes I have gotten the response "But I don't have any more to money to add to my position." And, of course, I feel sorry as they get frustrated and sell and go into something like Bitcoin. By the way, I'm not a Bitcoin fan or expert by any stretch.

I expect bitcoin to drop much further. The mania was over early this year, but the fad continues. People thinking it will hit 20K again are dreaming. It will NEVER be money. It's purely speculative and based on the greater fool theory.

[Recyclersteve]

Look at the drop off in activity on this forum. That is a contrary indicator. The time to load up on PMs is NOW.

I agree that now is a good time to buy for some, but I think that just like the the vast majority of day traders lose money, so do many who try to trade PM’s. I’ve seen several cry Uncle even on this site and sell at a loss. Even with copper pennies they sell at face- I bought ~$520 face in copper cents from someone on this site who delivered to me locally and lost money when you factor in his time, gas, etc. As a stock broker, I spoke with a select few clients where metals miners (and sometimes ETF’s, but not as often) comprised 90% or more of their portfolio. Some even used margin because they were SOOO sure they had impeccable timing. Just like with stock trading, it was sad to see the casualties, yet there was no good way to help some of these people. Some (maybe many) just gave to learn the hard way.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Look at the drop off in activity on this forum. That is a contrary indicator. The time to load up on PMs is NOW.

I agree that now is a good time to buy for some, but I think that just like the the vast majority of day traders lose money, so do many who try to trade PM’s. I’ve seen several cry Uncle even on this site and sell at a loss. Even with copper pennies they sell at face- I bought ~$520 face in copper cents from someone on this site who delivered to me locally and lost money when you factor in his time, gas, etc. As a stock broker, I spoke with a select few clients where metals miners (and sometimes ETF’s, but not as often) comprised 90% or more of their portfolio. Some even used margin because they were SOOO sure they had impeccable timing. Just like with stock trading, it was sad to see the casualties, yet there was no good way to help some of these people. Some (maybe many) just gave to learn the hard way.

No paper contracts, just fizzzz! Long term hold, never short term.

I would never buy individual mining stocks. ETF's mining stock are better just in case 1-2 of those miners goes bankrupt... which I fully expect to happen if prices continue lower.

Margin?... god forbid.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

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[Cu Penny Hoarder]

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[Contradiction]

I don't know much about Turkey except that Italy got Hungary and fried it in Greece. There is a lot of news this morning about Turkey's troubles. Yet the price of silver is down. I thought when times are bad precious metals go up.

[aloneibreak]

I don't know much about Turkey except that Italy got Hungary and fried it in Greece. There is a lot of news this morning about Turkey's troubles. Yet the price of silver is down. I thought when times are bad precious metals go up.

Turkish currency down big so our dollar up pm’s down

[Recyclersteve]

I don't know much about Turkey except that Italy got Hungary and fried it in Greece. There is a lot of news this morning about Turkey's troubles. Yet the price of silver is down. I thought when times are bad precious metals go up.

Love that quote!