SILVER - WAS $31-$49, WAS $33-$43, NOW $44+

[blackrabbit]

39.08 I am waking up feeling great! I had been thinking their would be a correction ever since it went over 20 dollars an ounce. I should have been more aggressive in snapping up the deals then, but I can't complain as I began this addiction at 13 bucks an oz.

[DeanStockwell]

Currently long silver, have been long SLV calls since 35.92. Looking to sell SLV around the $38.50 mark with a tight stops which should trigger around $37.35- $37.20.

Silver spot at 40 will be a major barrier for to blast through, I'd start looking into short positions nearing $39.50.

Good luck all!

Do you think it is a fair assumption that $50.00 an ounce is a possibility this year based on (among other things) the rumored recent payouts to dealers of that price for not being able to deliver the bullion on time?

No, I can't see 20%+ increases right now. Rumors are just that, rumors. I think we are fundamentally overvalued right now, not only in silver but in nearly all commodities. I could see us back down to low 30's territory by the end of the year, though we might hit the low-mid 40's before we see a big decline. Silver will take a very big hit once it is announced QE2 will be ending, possibly before the planned end of June. I presume that there is no real inflation now, only fed-induced inflation which they can easily fix.

[shinnosuke]

$40 SILVER here we come!!!

SILVER at $39.02 right now.

Or, said another way, an FRN with the face of Washington on it, is only worth 1/39th of an ounce of silver. Silver is silver, unchanged across the eons. It's just our way of setting a price on it that has changed.

That said, I would still like to see just one more correction, so I can buy some more with my worthless paper money. Please, just this one last time...I promise I'll be good.

In today's environment consider every day a correction Tomorrow will be higher

OK, I know you're right. You're right, you're right, you're always right.

So if I can't get the downward correction in the price of silver, can I at least find a winning lottery ticket on the ground to allow me to buy a house, a Ryedale and a guard dog, in that order?

[Lemon Thrower]

personally i think we are going higher. PMs are the inverse of the dollar. this is not overbought PMs, its a failure of confidence in the dollar which is only going to get worse. Even though I have positioned my affairs to be somewhat protected by this, its not good news for our country or most of its citizens.

in terms of what happens next, we broke thru major resistance on the GSR 2 weeks ago and now on gold at 1440. if gold closes above 1440 look out PMs will really explode.

the only thing that will stop this is something exegoenous, such as an increase in Comex margin requirements or another earthquake, tsunami, coup, european banking crisis, etc. (seems as if we've had a lifetime of each of those in the last few years).

[Country]

Nothing like doubters of a BULL MARKET in SILVER, always waiting for the BIG CORRECTION that never occurs. Small pullbacks can and do occur. However, when those expecting THE CORRECTION give up, and finally jump in pool, then we'll have the BIG CORRECTION. We could go much higher than anyone thinks before that BIG CORRECTION happens. $40, $50, $60 - capitulating shorts - $100. THE CORRECTION will occur when everyone is in the pool. Wait till the average person on the street decides he needs some PM, or the institutions want to ramp up their portfolios from 1/2% allocation to a 2% allocation, how high could SILVER GO then?

[DeanStockwell]

For what it's worth, I am currently long the USD with Jan12 UUP calls @ 20. The dollar is very oversold.

[blackrabbit]

I tend to agree with country, and know he is sitting pretty and still grabbing good deals on some real beautiful silver in the buy it now section. (I was drooling over the market harmony silver pyramid) I think all the world craziness is just going to continue and the Saudi totalitarian regime might pop one of these days. Then look out the inflation will hit the fan. I think 50 bucks an ounce this summer is in the cards, if not sooner.

[68Camaro]

Nothing like doubters of a BULL MARKET in SILVER, always waiting for the BIG CORRECTION that never occurs. Small pullbacks can and do occur. However, when those expecting THE CORRECTION give up, and finally jump in pool, then we'll have the BIG CORRECTION. We could go much higher than anyone thinks before that BIG CORRECTION happens. $40, $50, $60 - capitulating shorts - $100. THE CORRECTION will occur when everyone is in the pool. Wait till the average person on the street decides he needs some PM, or the institutions want to ramp up their portfolios from 1/2% allocation to a 2% allocation, how high could SILVER GO then?

I'll be perfectly fine with a correction from $120 back to $80....

[Country]

I tend to agree with country, and know he is sitting pretty and still grabbing good deals on some real beautiful silver in the buy it now section. (I was drooling over the market harmony silver pyramid) I think all the world craziness is just going to continue and the Saudi totalitarian regime might pop one of these days. Then look out the inflation will hit the fan. I think 50 bucks an ounce this summer is in the cards, if not sooner.

MH still sells the SILVER 6OZ PYRAMIDS for spot+$2.25.

http://marketharmony.net/precious.html

[timmus0382]

I agree, that this major uptrend is the correction, and we will see prices flirt with $50 by years end.

[beauanderos]

I agree, that this major uptrend is the correction, and we will see prices flirt with $50 by years end.

The uptrend in the metals is the correction in the dollar (plus a few other factors)

[Mossy]

...and we will see prices flirt with $50 by years end.

Probably above that.

[theo]

Currently long silver, have been long SLV calls since 35.92. Looking to sell SLV around the $38.50 mark with a tight stops which should trigger around $37.35- $37.20.

Silver spot at 40 will be a major barrier for to blast through, I'd start looking into short positions nearing $39.50.

Good luck all!

Do you think it is a fair assumption that $50.00 an ounce is a possibility this year based on (among other things) the rumored recent payouts to dealers of that price for not being able to deliver the bullion on time?

No, I can't see 20%+ increases right now. Rumors are just that, rumors. I think we are fundamentally overvalued right now, not only in silver but in nearly all commodities. I could see us back down to low 30's territory by the end of the year, though we might hit the low-mid 40's before we see a big decline. Silver will take a very big hit once it is announced QE2 will be ending, possibly before the planned end of June. I presume that there is no real inflation now, only fed-induced inflation which they can easily fix.

If "Fed induced" inflation were easily addressed, commodities wouldn't be where they are in the first place. Much of the QE activity has been used in buying excess treasury notes. This money then goes to the government to fund spending programs. The only way to destroy these dollars is to retire the notes using tax revenue. There is simply not nearly enough wealth being created to acheive this.

Pulling the excess money out of the general economy would require at least double digit interest rates. And that would tank the economy faster than you could say. "one-term President." Remember that silver and gold made their 1980 highs in the face of very high interest rates, today these rates are effectively zero.

[68Camaro]

[I think we are fundamentally overvalued right now, not only in silver but in nearly all commodities. I could see us back down to low 30's territory by the end of the year, though we might hit the low-mid 40's before we see a big decline. Silver will take a very big hit once it is announced QE2 will be ending, possibly before the planned end of June. I presume that there is no real inflation now, only fed-induced inflation which they can easily fix.

My friend, one of us is badly wrong. About everything. However, I'm willing to be schooled and shown the error of my ways. If I'm wrong, hopefully I'm not any more wrong than you say, because with silver in the low 30s my portfolio is still at an overall positive position.

My view of it, regardless of the details of how the final deal comes to pass, is that I believe there ultimately has to be a flight from Treasuries (which I believe has already started). But where to people put their cash? All those Trillions and Trillions. There will be few places capable of both the investment volume and relative trust other than commodities, which especially includes precious metals.

Fed-induced inflation is easy to fix? I'm guessing you were not of age in the late 70s, early 80s? I lived in the middle of that, and was paying attention at the time. That was not an easy fix, and no one today would have the balls to do now what had to be done then, given that the economy is already fundamentally unsound to start with, with massive unemployment and debt.

[DeanStockwell]

The Fed has not tried to address high commodity prices yet. Again, Bernanke reiterated that commodity prices are overextended and they will soon regress back down to lower levels. To quote him, the high commodity prices are "transitory."
The inflation we are seeing is mainly "inflation" consumers are seeing because of high commodity prices. The money being loaned out of the Fed is not circulating, it is being used to bolster bank reserves.
Although PM's and nearly all commodities are on a strong upward move and the rally is likely to continue, be cautious and keep your stops tight. Prices are extended above fundamental value.
For the record, still long SLV short-term and long USD mid-term. Once I've sold the SLV calls I'll look for a small correction to reenter into a SLV position to ride the trend higher.

[68Camaro]

The Fed has not tried to address high commodity prices yet. Again, Bernanke reiterated that commodity prices are overextended and they will soon regress back down to lower levels. To quote him, the high commodity prices are "transitory."
The inflation we are seeing is mainly "inflation" consumers are seeing because of high commodity prices. The money being loaned out of the Fed is not circulating, it is being used to bolster bank reserves.
Although PM's and nearly all commodities are on a strong upward move and the rally is likely to continue, be cautious and keep your stops tight. Prices are extended above fundamental value.
For the record, still long SLV short-term and long USD mid-term. Once I've sold the SLV calls I'll look for a small correction to reenter into a SLV position to ride the trend higher.

And for the record, I think you can be wrong [as to overall view] and still make money with your approach, if you're on your toes and willing to be flexible.

[Treetop]

The Fed has not tried to address high commodity prices yet. Again, Bernanke reiterated that commodity prices are overextended and they will soon regress back down to lower levels. To quote him, the high commodity prices are "transitory."
The inflation we are seeing is mainly "inflation" consumers are seeing because of high commodity prices. The money being loaned out of the Fed is not circulating, it is being used to bolster bank reserves.
Although PM's and nearly all commodities are on a strong upward move and the rally is likely to continue, be cautious and keep your stops tight. Prices are extended above fundamental value.
For the record, still long SLV short-term and long USD mid-term. Once I've sold the SLV calls I'll look for a small correction to reenter into a SLV position to ride the trend higher.

quoting bernanke on inflation? Now I believe you.... is this a joke?

[shinnosuke]

The Fed has not tried to address high commodity prices yet. Again, Bernanke reiterated that commodity prices are overextended and they will soon regress back down to lower levels. To quote him, the high commodity prices are "transitory."
The inflation we are seeing is mainly "inflation" consumers are seeing because of high commodity prices. The money being loaned out of the Fed is not circulating, it is being used to bolster bank reserves.
Although PM's and nearly all commodities are on a strong upward move and the rally is likely to continue, be cautious and keep your stops tight. Prices are extended above fundamental value.
For the record, still long SLV short-term and long USD mid-term. Once I've sold the SLV calls I'll look for a small correction to reenter into a SLV position to ride the trend higher.

Dean, with all due respect, I think I see the problem here. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Perhaps you see the Federal Reserve as having some interest and some motivation for making things better, some desire in controlling inflation. I, on the other hand, see them as a private institution -- neither Federal nor a reserve of any kind -- that is hell-bent on destroying the value of the US dollar.

If you peg the purchasing power of the US dollar at $1.00 in 1913 when the Fed began, in those same 1913 dollars, the FRN we now use is worth less than a nickel. There have been some very smart people in charge of the Fed over the years, but I find it extremely hard to believe that all of them, all of them, sir, simply made innocent mistakes along the way to bring us to our current conditions. Without any hatred towards any particular member of the Fed, I think they are simply a powerful group of men and member banks that have acted in pure self-interest to rape the American public all the while amassing fortunes of their own. We were once a proud and free people without an income tax. Now we have become an entitlement-based society with draconian tax laws. We are so messed up that most people in the general public cannot even begin to fathom how bad our economy is. When I mention the problems caused by the Fed, the eyes of most people just glaze over.

I hope you continue to educate me with your ideas about shorts and longs and calls and stops. That info is highly interesting. Another reason why this website is so good.

[Know Common Cents]

Rumors continue to grind about a possible QE3. I haven't heard enough of the talking heads speculating on how this may affect the POS near and long term.

It's tragically funny that the Fed continues to tout their "strong dollar" policy when the contrary continues to gain traction. Not only is this evident in the POS and POG, but look at all commodities (grains, industrial metals, oil, rubber, cardboard). The double whammy effect is also gaining since the price of the actual commodity is increasing as well as the cost to get it to market, then delivery.

It's exciting to get juiced up over the increase POS and POG. It reminds me of the early 1980s and, even though I've been a buyer of US 90% and some rounds along the way, it's the longer term effect of coming inflation that has me somewhat concerned. Like everyone else, I hope to retire someday and really don't have to work until I'm 99 years old.

For now, bring on the $40 silver. Let's see what happens.

[aristobolus]

The Fed has not tried to address high commodity prices yet. Again, Bernanke reiterated that commodity prices are overextended and they will soon regress back down to lower levels. To quote him, the high commodity prices are "transitory."
The inflation we are seeing is mainly "inflation" consumers are seeing because of high commodity prices. The money being loaned out of the Fed is not circulating, it is being used to bolster bank reserves.
Although PM's and nearly all commodities are on a strong upward move and the rally is likely to continue, be cautious and keep your stops tight. Prices are extended above fundamental value.
For the record, still long SLV short-term and long USD mid-term. Once I've sold the SLV calls I'll look for a small correction to reenter into a SLV position to ride the trend higher.

Of course Ben Bernanke has been a bit off at times in his prognostications,

"In October 2005, Ben Bernanke appeared before Congress, only days before being nominated to succeed Alan Greenspan. Growing concern had already emerged regarding the unsustainability of what was obviously a massive housing asset bubble, in large part facilitated by the Fed's easy monetary policies, fully supported by Bernanke. When questioned on the perception that the residential housing market was a growing danger to the nation's economic health, the supposedly brilliant and perceptive Ben Bernanke stated that the escalation in U.S. housing prices did not constitute an asset bubble, and was in fact based on sound economic fundamentals."

HT: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-f ... 41032.html

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

I have been buying pretty heavily last week and this week trying to turn the market.. hasn't worked yet.

[68Camaro]

Overnight... just crossed 39.5 and still climbing. $40 possible today?

[Lemon Thrower]

seems like this increase is not being fought by the PTB. like a controlled retreat. Oil has spiked recently - is there an unwritten gold to oil trading band?

[68Camaro]

Or maybe today they have decided to wait to NY open today to try to crush it. Or maybe purposely waiting until it hits $40, then try to crush it. Will be interesting...

[zerocd]

I rarely trust men in suits. I had a problem with my father as a boy.

That changed when I saw how much integrity, impeccable, my father had.

Still, my basic instincts appear to me to be correct. The Bernanke is case in point.

The suit is a tool to hide whatever is inside and so many have used it successfully to take advantage of others.

I am "all in" except for the cash to run my long time business.

I have spent 20 years in preparation for hard times and emergencies.

The Boy Scouts made a deep mark in me.

My Dad did this with money, instead of skills, tools and knowledge. I chose that latter first.

My folks paid dearly when the markets fleeced the populace but inspite of that, their monetary preparation was such that they should live in comfort and care until death.

Maybe close to the last of those who will be able to make and live that American dream.

Silver and gold were "my last preps" and I feel ready.

I am still maintaining the preps and have recently aquired a bunch of HAM gear and will get a license and get all the aspects fully functional.

Today, I will check my local coin/gold/silver shop and buy more silver, even if a small amount. I want to see this through and see myself as an element to break the negative anti citizen government institutions and broadcast knowledge so yet more can be aware.

We live in interesting times.

I want a silver cake with at least 100 candles!

Let's see what the wicked witch and her monkeys throw at silver when it hits $40.

The rumors were that JPM would be in deep trouble if silver went above $36 and gold above $1440 and here we are.

Interesting times.

0CD