PM Rally

[brian0918]

Gold and silver breaking higher tonight! The ratio is still stuck around 51.20, so I would expect silver to catch up by shooting higher.

[slvrbck]

Tomorrow has potential to be interesting. I have noticed in many recent weeks that the larger moves up have been while the weekend was approaching

[beauanderos]

Tomorrow has potential to be interesting. I have noticed in many recent weeks that the larger moves up have been while the weekend was approaching

The interests which prefer to keep the price of silver restrained are doing they're damnedest at the moment to push silver back down. Trading volume just skyrocketed, down sixty cents in one minute.

[slickeast]

They are trying with everything they have to smack silver down. Look at the charts.

[mflugher]

Unemployment came in at 7.8% breaking that big deal 8% number... <hold back comments about revising up next week and obama's debate showing>

[brian0918]

Well, I guess this big explosion is delayed until next week?

[68Camaro]

The timing is never certain. TPTB defended 1795 gold and 35 silver repeatedly; barely knocked them down. Gold still above 1780 and silver still above 34.50. Sunday night and Monday will be interesting.

[fb101]

One word.
Longer.

So since I am longer, gold will open at 1600 and silver at 28 on monday.

[brian0918]

Silver down to 33.68, gold down to 1767.

I guess the explosion was downward.

[68Camaro]

Commodities selling off a bit in Asia. We'll see how the night goes. Seems to be bouncing up already.

[Engineer]

Commodities selling off a bit in Asia. We'll see how the night goes. Seems to be bouncing up already.

I take a pretty simple approach in my view of PMs. When a '64 quarter buys significantly more than a gallon of gas, it's time to be cautious. This isn't a hard and fast rule, and sometimes gas prices take unnecessary dips, but overall it has held me in good stead.

Looking at the 5-year Baltic Dry Index, we're still bouncing along at the trough from '08 and half of what we were at last year, so I don't see a quick recovery in sight. There's a good chance of a flight from fiat, but I'd expect a pretty big dip before that happens.

Overall, I'm not in a big selling mood right now, but I'm not in a big buying mood either.

[68Camaro]

It's always time to be cautious these days.

Your rule of thumb is interesting, but I've not seen a plot of .18*silver/gas as a function of time. Right now that's about 1.5. Both have been all over the map and I'm not sure they are that closely connected.

In 64, silver was 1.29 and yes, gas was about 25 cents, give or take. (See link below)

http://theoldmotor.com/?p=49349

Ratio then was right at 1.0, obviously (give or take a gas war, and depending on your local taxes).

[barrytrot]

If you think about it: gas (oil) is finite. And when used it is destroyed (for the most part).

It's astonishing the prices are as stable as they are if you think about it.

Silver on the other hand is conserved a lot better when used and therefore it would stand to reason that the ratio of "how much" silver there is vs. gas (oil) would continually increase over time.


That said: Both gas and silver are likely under valued in relation to where they should be relative to the near infinite capacity to print more FRN's. So trade in those for the shiny or viscous stuff as much as you can!

[68Camaro]

Off topic, but I saw an unsubstantiated claim today (somewhere in something I read) that half of all the oil that has ever been pumped has been consumed in the past 22 years.

[barrytrot]

Off topic, but I saw an unsubstantiated claim today (somewhere in something I read) that half of all the oil that has ever been pumped has been consumed in the past 22 years.

That sounds like it could be true. Similar to the "more people alive today then ever have died" type reasoning.

[beauanderos]

If you think about it: gas (oil) is finite. And when used it is destroyed (for the most part).

It's astonishing the prices are as stable as they are if you think about it.

Silver on the other hand is conserved a lot better when used and therefore it would stand to reason that the ratio of "how much" silver there is vs. gas (oil) would continually increase over time.


That said: Both gas and silver are likely under valued in relation to where they should be relative to the near infinite capacity to print more FRN's. So trade in those for the shiny or viscous stuff as much as you can!

Oh boy... can I start offering West Texas or Brent crude barrels during my weekend sales?

[barrytrot]

Oh boy... can I start offering West Texas or Brent crude barrels during my weekend sales?

Yes.

[fb101]

Rally still alive?

[68Camaro]

Rally still alive?

An appropriate question. I would like to know what JFFs trends are showing now. I still believe we're still in a long-term bull run with a sharp long-term trend back up sooner than later, but since TPTB managed to stall the most recent rally, and I think will fight tooth and nail to keep things level until the election, now that we're this close to the election I will not be surprised if we move sideways with a trend down until afterwards (or until the next major other world event).

[fb101]

Yeah, the problem is my longs are in options, which I'd like to not sit on till expiration if we ain't going to see them in the money.

[Jonflyfish]

Something tells me that it's a good time to mind your risk as the USD is poised to rally, and rally quite significantly at that.
Cheers!

[rsk1963]

JFF what kind of eta are we looking at?

[fb101]

Thanks for the heads up.
Hmmm..........
Short PM's?
Long dollar?
Both?

[Country]

USD weakening again. If this trend continues, the PM rise will resume in earnest. This might be a good time to pick up some PMs before this happens.

[Jonflyfish]

JFF what kind of eta are we looking at?

Sorry I wasn't here earlier. I guess the answer is obvious.

Cheers!