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While I am a permabull based on solid and increasingly favorable fundamentals for higher metal prices I'm not convinced we will see higher prices just yet. I agree with Country that silver follows gold, and should continue to do so unless the physical market in silver diverges without the gold market also doing so. So I'm watching gold more closely as an indictator. The current record pace of physical gold outflows on the COMEX began when gold was above $1600, and assuming the current trend stays intact it looks like that can continue for another year'ish or so. Cause and effect imply to me that the price movement was reactionary. I have little doubt it was knocked down to aid the wealth transfer that would be going on regardless, and until that process is complete current prices are ideal to reward those on the right end of that transfer. JPM was able to offload their silver short position and is now long on SLV. The chips are moving, and I don't expect the current situation to fluctuate much until the firesale is over and all are go for the next phase. There is still physical gold on the exchange to be bought at the futures price even though the vast majority of consumers are paying a premium for metal in hand over the future price (backwardation). While the COMEX is only one exchange of many I think the default of any major exchange will be sufficient to spook people into safer physical assets so I am not concerned with the lack of accounting for all relevant exchanges. It may seem contrary to current suspected manipulation, though it stands to reason that it can't go on forever, and that at some point they will move to take advantage of and even usher in so as to better control the inevitable shift which appears to be going on now. Of course I could be 100% wrong.

any thoughts on todays action? Gold up like a half percent and silver down less than a half percent...more or less held its gains...isnt in unusual to see silver red and gold green at the end of a trading day? well in this case its not really a big move in either direction,but they moved opposite to one another.

Coppercrazy wrote:any thoughts on todays action? Gold up like a half percent and silver down less than a half percent...more or less held its gains...isnt in unusual to see silver red and gold green at the end of a trading day? well in this case its not really a big move in either direction,but they moved opposite to one another.

That is unusual. It seems like that happened a few days ago as well. Oh well, silver's still over 20 so I'm happy .

GOLD is on it's way to $1400+. SILVER will follow. The technicians (computer mind think) were looking for strong resistance at $1337 GOLD. GOLD held all its gains from yesterday and added some more today, now at $1343. We all know that technical analysis may not apply with PMs, but I'd be looking for a GAP UP tomorrow since the computers do all the thinking these dayz. Free sailing until the next major resistance at $1420 GOLD.

Gold leads and silver is following, silver moving proportionally higher on the trendline, but not necessarily tightly consistent hour by hour. There is some minor leapfrogging going on.

Plunging . Well under $20 now. I really thought this one might hold. Oh well. Looking to buy again at $13 .

EDIT: Gold's still over 1300. Maybe there's still hope.

slickeast wrote:Tuesday July 23rd. Silver back under $20

July 25th and silver is under $20. Get use to it. I don't see silver going above $25 until 2014

I think it's going to be higher than $25 sometime in the fall. GOLD will lead and will be over $1400 easily. BUY now, or be sorry...

Country wrote:I think it's going to be higher than $25 sometime in the fall. GOLD will lead and will be over $1400 easily. BUY now, or be sorry...

yep.....you're right...I think you can sell all old crop grains, and if you grow large acrerage of corn or beans, hedge sell now. ....or you can sell July14 corn 4 cents under buying Dec14 (that's 2014) against it, and look to take profits at July corn 20 to 40 cents under the Dec14 corn on the day of the November 13 crop production report that will show 14 bln bushels plus of corn grown.

don't mean to go off topic....I think silvers going to 130 a toz, first stop...then to $250 a toz.

think me crazy?...patience, fret not.....the precious metals bull has the best friends in the utterly useless and corrupt Congress and Fed.....EXCEPT these enemies of the Republic might try and pull some stroke like "outlawing" private ownership of PM's, which would be just an inconvenience, if you know how to operate in a black market environment.

current thoughts?

Ideas about the derailment of the FED free money train and its effects... timetables?

Any decrease in QE will spike interest rates, which we saw at merely the hint of tapering. That was the knee jerk reaction, but independently of that if the Fed is not buying bonds then the price of bonds will have to drop to bring in demand, and bonds are what determine interest rates with a higher price (better value) equating to a lower interest rate (less risk).

As per http://naturalorder.ufm.edu there was a BIS report last month indicating that there are $441 Trillion in interest rate swap derivatives (only a portion of total derivatives). These are bets that interest rates will stay low, and if interest rates spike this could be problematic for the integrity of the global financial system if that $441 trillion starts to unwind.

As such I do not expect the Fed to actually decrease QE unless it is truly ineffective or until they are ready to capitulate. Everything else is jawboning IMO.

Rodebaugh wrote:current thoughts?

Ideas about the derailment of the FED free money train and its effects... timetables?

As long as the average American remains in denial, and continues to have a belief system to include value in FRNs it will be unlikely we have a quick and painful derailment. Long, slow, and drawn out will continue. Just my idea.

Rodebaugh wrote:current thoughts?

Ideas about the derailment of the FED free money train and its effects... timetables?

No ideas other than "buy the dip." Lot's of chatter about Sept. being the month that the wheels come off. I'm not sure. It seems there is still some life left in Corpus Americus.

Great posts so far fellas.

I agree with the observation that the talking heads are increasing metal doomsday chatter for the month of September. Looks like we will be seeing the easing of quantitative easing if you get my drift. This should slowly, as designed, put pressure on interest rates. The result will be money flowing from speculative investments and holdings to some of these guaranteed fixed rate vehicles.

conclusion: I am a always buying and selling but at this time I remain a net seller.

Nice so far for today!

4th consecutive higher bottom and higher top. Let's hope it continues at this pace forever. We'll be back up to $50 by 2025

scyther wrote:4th consecutive higher.....

Yet Doc the bear could only muster a sideways in the title.

CardsNCoins wrote:

scyther wrote:4th consecutive higher.....

Yet Doc the bear could only muster a sideways in the title.

you will not see me "backing up the truck" at this level.

Up nicely right now... yay for the stack.... boo for my ZSL

Over $21! That's a resistance point, right?

If I'm reading the calendar right, options expiration is the 27th. Could be some fireworks between now and then.

Yeah, that looks sideways to me.

slickeast wrote:

Yeah, that looks sideways to me.

Look again.

I'm being generous with the term "sideways"

Doc,

It's all perspective. A long time ago people thought if you went too far out into the ocean you would fall off of the earth. The Earth also looks flat from outer space.

And something you will understand. The girl across the bar starts looking better and better with every beer.

Its all in how you look at things