SILVER - WAS $31-$49, WAS $33-$43, NOW $44+

[68Camaro]

Doubled short position @ 42.37

Care to walk us through your thought process, or is it shareable? I can look at the charts, do the math, and I can see the curve kneeing over, but how are you chosing your lines in the sand? Any rigor to it, or is it mostly art, or is it a combination of charting and gut feel for you?

Again, I'm not likely to be following in your footsteps anytime soon, but certainly I would be foolish to try given as ignorant as I am about reasonable process.

[DeanStockwell]

I have a feeling JFF won't want to give away exactly how he makes his trades.
Today once again showed the power of stops while trading...kept me from losing a ton of money today in ZSL, and gave me some nice entry points(1890 shares @ 18.36 average price). I'll get stopped out 1/2 at 18 and the other 1/2 at 17.80. Whenever trading, it is always best to place stops the moment after your order is filled, unless you are very experienced and can adjust to the fluidity of the market while under pressure and make logical decisions. I don't have that ability yet.

It seems like the miners have lagged this huge move in silver...I wonder what that means, though I feel it may be bearish.
Unemployment claims actually RISED today...that is bad news. Silver in Asia is unchanged as of 11:37.
I saw something extremely surprising in the news today(sarcasm.) Remember the $38 billion "cut" that the government made to the 2011 budget? Looks like it only amounted to $356 million. By that logic obama's 4 trillion dollar deficit reduction should lead to what...
~37.5 billion...the original amount they said was supposed to be cut. How ironic

[shinnosuke]

I have a feeling JFF won't want to give away exactly how he makes his trades.
Today once again showed the power of stops while trading...kept me from losing a ton of money today in ZSL, and gave me some nice entry points(1890 shares @ 18.36 average price). I'll get stopped out 1/2 at 18 and the other 1/2 at 17.80. Whenever trading, it is always best to place stops the moment after your order is filled, unless you are very experienced and can adjust to the fluidity of the market while under pressure and make logical decisions. I don't have that ability yet.

It seems like the miners have lagged this huge move in silver...I wonder what that means, though I feel it may be bearish.
Unemployment claims actually RISED today...that is bad news. Silver in Asia is unchanged as of 11:37.
I saw something extremely surprising in the news today(sarcasm.) Remember the $38 billion "cut" that the government made to the 2011 budget? Looks like it only amounted to $356 million. By that logic obama's 4 trillion dollar deficit reduction should lead to what...
~37.5 billion...the original amount they said was supposed to be cut. How ironic

I heard the same news about the highly-touted cuts only being $356 million and was extremely disappointed that my freshman congressman was among those who voted for the bill. He was supposed to be all about cutting govt spending. There were about 60 who did vote against it in the House because the number is so ridiculously low. They are the heroes. The deficit is in the Trillions; the spending is in the Trillions; and the cuts are in the millions.

JFF will probably say that we can't know the future, but the future is not bright for a country that spends more than it makes. Of course, Obama's solution is to tax us more.

[Jonflyfish]

Will explain more later. Sorry for the short, rushed posts.
While the future is unknown, the structure suggests that the market may very well get ugly real fast in a big way.

Cheers

[shinnosuke]

Will explain more later. Sorry for the short, rushed posts.
While the future is unknown, the structure suggests that the market may very well get ugly real fast in a big way.

Cheers

This is how I read your post:
The world as we know it is about to end...
...but have a nice day anyway.

[frugi]

HOLY CANOLI BATMAN!!! SILVER TO THE MOON!

[Jonflyfish]

First full allocation complete with a short @ 42.74.
Have a great weekend.

[Roadrunner]

Say it with me, kids....

$43! $43! $43! $43!

[inflationhawk]

The market can stay irrational longer than most can remain solvent...be careful with the silver shorts out there! I'm riding the trend and will sell small bits on the way up....hopefully in the end my gains taken will offset the losses when / if the silver market crashes. Anything that goes up this fast can rationally be expected to correct harshly at some point. It's just too hard to know exactly when...45? 50? 75? 150?!! Who knows???

[neilgin1]

imo, this market is far from "irrational"......irrational is when you start to see silver trading in .50 increments, and making $10 daily moves, but at that point, you'll see the board default, which is what i see happening.

[68Camaro]

Coming up on $43. Will it hit before close? That would be another interesting breather point. This is like a repeat of last week, but higher.

[68Camaro]

Coming up on $43. Will it hit before close? That would be another interesting breather point. This is like a repeat of last week, but higher.

It just touched $43, officially...

[Jonflyfish]

First allocation of second unit short @ 43.05. The future is unknowable but alpha is high and the silver pendulum can swing the other direction in a heartbeat.
Be safe.

[Country]

SILVER CLOSED THIS WEEK AT $43.05!!!

Does my $51+ by May prediction look possible now?

[zerocd]

SILVER CLOSED THIS WEEK AT $43.05!!!

Does my $51+ by May prediction look possible now?

It does if Chili nationalizes their silver mines on May 1.

Edit: I should have typed Bolivia! Don't know where I got Chili........

This could be the moment.

0CD

[Market Harmony]

Jon, post your cover prices, too... not doing us any good to only know the open side of the trade

[Investin Cents]

$43. Absolutely stunning. Only thing it reminds me of is the Stock Market in the late 1990's - used to listen to market reports everyday on my car radio and get a kick about how it seemed to leap and bound hour to hour - seems like same type of action here.

Now I get my addict-feed from Kitco on my mobile phone - damn Internet!

How will this end? Quickly? Badly??? (depends on how you define badly as well, I realize!) Who knows? As they say on Zerohedge, BTFD!!!! Or lately, BTFS!!! (S is for Spike - today's spike is tomorrow's dip!!!!)

Good luck and good hunting!!!!

[Lemon Thrower]

JFF - do you think the pm prices will come down or the equity markets?

the miners have lagged the metals. not sure why. the metal prices are moving so fast its got to result in higher earnings eventually. for exploration and development companies, when they look backward and take say a 200-day moving average to value their metal in the ground or the cut-off grade for their ore, its an increasingly higher metal price or lower grade to be economic, meaning the projects are more valuable.

one thing i can't get my mind around is backwardation in silver. on the one hand, it happens because their is a preference for silver in hand rather than in the future. makes sense, esp. with counterparty risk. but with the way inflation is galloping and the metals getting scarcer you would think that metal prices in the future will be higher. perhaps the backwardation in the futures markets have the equities markets confused. in other words, if the futures show the metals going down, albeit slightly, then there is less reason to bid up the equities.

if you take a look at SLW, for example, it has underperformed physical silver for 6 months now.

[henrysmedford]

A good start--

40+.jpg (43.97 KiB) Viewed 706 times

[DeanStockwell]

Dollar up .3%...this will not be good for silver in the morning unless the $DXY reverses.

[68Camaro]

Dollar up .3%...this will not be good for silver in the morning unless the $DXY reverses.

Roger that, but it's a long night ahead...

[Jonflyfish]

Second allocation of second unit double position size short @ 43.31.
Sorry for short post. Not enough time these days.

Cheers!

[DeanStockwell]

If silver is relatively neutral in the pre-market trading, I will look into a short position.

[anarchir]

Gotta love riding this roller-coaster on up right guys? I keep updating my spreadsheet that values my coin hoard and I love how much I earn each day by doing nothing.

[DeanStockwell]

Just walked into the silver casino and bet on red...
Oil down, gold down, stock futures down, USD up .7%...today will be a bad day for silver, I think.