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Im seeing a total disconnect between physical and paper. Not even the smae game unless your into 1000 oz bricks. 1986 ASEs are selling for 50 bucks on ebay all day long.

Thogey wrote:Im seeing a total disconnect between physical and paper. Not even the smae game unless your into 1000 oz bricks. 1986 ASEs are selling for 50 bucks on ebay all day long.

They'd better sell for that considering the high commision and fees ebay deducts, not to mention the shipping cost.

Unless you have ebay bux, a gift card or a coupon, people buying Ag on Ebay from private sellers perplexes me. Buying from a legit bullion dealer is more trustworthy and secure. Shipping is typically free and the package is fully insured.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

68Camaro wrote:If we're going to have a meaningful discussion on the topic we need to refer to actual street price of generic physical - not kitco spot or other related metric.

It matters not if "spot" goes to $15, if at the same time premiums go to $7 such that the net delivered cost is $22. As with some of the past events, there could again be another very small window (usually a Sunday night into early hours of a Monday) where prices crash over a weekend and the middlemen fail to react quickly enough to adjust premiums or offerings.

(Of course they may have learned their lessons from 2020 and have a plan in place to adjust prices and / or inventory in near real time.)

IMO it does matter. If spot prices fall and the premium remains the same, you're still going to pay less per oz than if you buy at current prices. Stackers who capitulate and/or run out of $ to buy more should help keep premiums from increasing.

Of course there's always a possibility that crypto cultists will have an epiphany and exchange their cryptos for PMs... if they still have any cash left that is.

My point was really this. If you looked for it generic 1 oz silver could recently be found for $25 or $26, when spot was $23. A premium of $2 to $3. If spot drops to $15 but premiums go to $10, you are not saving any money over recent prices with spot much higher.

I think the high premiums provide suppliers a buffer against those flash crashes/beatdowns. jmho

Catfish4u wrote:I think the high premiums provide suppliers a buffer against those flash crashes/beatdowns. jmho

Most of the large bullion dealers hedge themselves by buying Ag puts (short) in case something like that happens. A few of the smaller dealers neglected to do this and got wiped out... Tulving and Republic Metals come to mind. When a bullion dealer claims BK and you have an order in process with them, there is no recourse and usually you won't get any PMs or your money back. This is the main reason I never buy from new/smaller dealers, even if they are cheaper... too much risk.

In March 2020 when covid was going to kill everyone and silver dropped to $12, I backed up the truck. I'm pretty sure it was on a Sunday night. I bought as much as I could afford, even topping out one of my credit cards. It took them a few hours to raise the premiums and they went up very quickly.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:...

In March 2020 when covid was going to kill everyone and silver dropped to $12, I backed up the truck. I'm pretty sure it was on a Sunday night. I bought as much as I could afford, even topping out one of my credit cards. It took them a few hours to raise the premiums and they went up very quickly.

And that is the most recent example of an opportunity that I referred to above. They will tend to occur in a time of crisis and upon a weekend open between Sunday evening and early Monday morning. I "lucked" into that one as I checked prices when I woke up and when I saw the price crash I decided to see if the major dealers had adjusted stock or premiums. If I executed any buy I would only do it with one of the top 3 or 4 dealers, so when I checked one of my preferred dealers I was shocked to find that they still had stock listed for generic with unchanged premiums. As fast as I could, I put in a large buy order, had it accepted, and then almost immediately saw both the price and the premium start to rise. These moments happen very rarely and you have to be prepared to strike when they do. For that to happen you need:

a) conviction of your beliefs, know what is a good price, including all fees. And know what is a great price - one that you can't walk away from.

b) have a short list of dealers that you trust

c) have accounts with each dealer already in place so that you aren't in a position of needing to create or open a new account while you are in the middle of a time sensitive event.

d) to recognize when global events are creating potential market disruption, so that your "spidey senses" can be elevated to a higher state, because if you aren't aware of real time price changes you will miss the opportunity to buy physical. There is no mechanism to buy physical with a type of electronic limit price order - you have to be present in the moment.

68Camaro wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:...

In March 2020 when covid was going to kill everyone and silver dropped to $12, I backed up the truck. I'm pretty sure it was on a Sunday night. I bought as much as I could afford, even topping out one of my credit cards. It took them a few hours to raise the premiums and they went up very quickly.

And that is the most recent example of an opportunity that I referred to above. They will tend to occur in a time of crisis and upon a weekend open between Sunday evening and early Monday morning. I "lucked" into that one as I checked prices when I woke up and when I saw the price crash I decided to see if the major dealers had adjusted stock or premiums. If I executed any buy I would only do it with one of the top 3 or 4 dealers, so when I checked one of my preferred dealers I was shocked to find that they still had stock listed for generic with unchanged premiums. As fast as I could, I put in a large buy order, had it accepted, and then almost immediately saw both the price and the premium start to rise. These moments happen very rarely and you have to be prepared to strike when they do. For that to happen you need:

a) conviction of your beliefs, know what is a good price, including all fees. And know what is a great price - one that you can't walk away from.

b) have a short list of dealers that you trust

c) have accounts with each dealer already in place so that you aren't in a position of needing to create or open a new account while you are in the middle of a time sensitive event.

d) to recognize when global events are creating potential market disruption, so that your "spidey senses" can be elevated to a higher state, because if you aren't aware of real time price changes you will miss the opportunity to buy physical. There is no mechanism to buy physical with a type of electronic limit price order - you have to be present in the moment.

100% !

The "Spidey sense" thing is real. I usually get an innate gut feeling and a voice in my ear that says "BUY NOW!" It does not come often, but when it does you have to follow through.

Feels really good after you can nail one of these huge smash downs and the price starts moving up fast.

Great thread.