Realcent.org

SoFa wrote:

InfleXion wrote:I hope everybody bought physical while the getting was good. If we see $20 silver again in current dollars I'll eat my Seahawks hat!

I'll take the other side of that. If it never gets back under $20, I'll eat my hat.

I already have a contingency plan. Throw the hat on the grill until most of it is charred away, then smother the ashes in BBQ sauce

So much for a Friday Smackdown!

Interesting to watch the intra-day trends and the media response, but overall? - wake me when we break $30 again... The 20s: I'm buying what I can, but as far as the price: we've been here, done that. The 30s is where the action will be and when we'll get back to some real excitement.

I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

somewhere around 15000 oz. still aways to go

I don't have an exit strategy. The only way I would sell for fiat dollars is if I could turn around and buy more metal than I sold with it or had something else I wanted to immediately purchase. Otherwise I'll be waiting for metals to return to money. When things are valued in grains of gold and silver again I may spend some, sure, but I'll never exit my position for any other kind of money since it could not possibly be superior. I would consider paying off my home but not until I thought metals were fair value which I concur with the previous post as a starting point. If that never happens then I will let future generations decide what to do with my stack.

That being said, I will be looking to book some profits at $70-75 and $110-115 so I can have a bit of play money should we see those price points. Not more than 10-20% of my stack. Any higher than that and I doubt we'll be pricing in dollars any longer.

oh, no, no, no not phys. rather paper plays for USLV sorry for the miscomunication

In that case, sell at the top

Check out JFF's yellow/blue charts in one of the other threads. Shows good points of support and resistance.

Yep, buy low, sell high. Piece of cake...

InfleXion wrote:If we see $20 silver again in current dollars I'll eat my Seahawks hat!

I'd eat my 49'er hat but I left it behind in California when I happily moved away. I will though eat my recently acquired Oregon Duck's hat

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

I might use a future overbought market as a chance to offload some of my less desirable Ag (40% halves, tarnished rounds.. . .etc) and use the funds to cycle into gold or cheaper silver after a possible sell off.

I'm surprised. I really thought $17.
I did DCA some gold during the 66+ GSR and now I'm thinking I should have done more. At least this helps offset all of the cost on my West Point sets.

68Camaro wrote:Interesting to watch the intra-day trends and the media response, but overall? - wake me when we break $30 again... The 20s: I'm buying what I can, but as far as the price: we've been here, done that. The 30s is where the action will be and when we'll get back to some real excitement.

isn't it?......$130 would be the adjusted "Hunt high"....of course $50 and $100 are OBVIOUS psychological barriers.

good grief, you see these headlines?.....everything I been reading, points to a date of 25 Sep - 5 Oct......for what?, I don't know.....SOMETHING.

you hear that in the distance?...that's the sound of the war drums being beat.

theo wrote:

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

I might use a future overbought market as a chance to offload some of my less desirable Ag (40% halves, tarnished rounds.. . .etc) and use the funds to cycle into gold or cheaper silver after a possible sell off.

theo, I would NEVER tell another guy how to play his hand, but imho, those 40% Kenn's that everybody holds in low esteem, those are the silver coins a lot of trade is going to happen in. its a case of numbers. everybody will be making it up as they go along.....'what's this worth, whats that worth?' meanwhile we minted 439 MILLION 90% Kenn halves and then we minted 840 million 40% Kenn halves.....840 million, each containing almost a fifth of toz of silver....THAT...right there will be OUR "money supply"....the average American uses to GET BY, buy flour, buy eggs, canned tomatoes, cig's...whatever we need, while these little grey men, these pygmy's who have got us into this mess, TRY and figure a "way out".

i'm not saying what I think about them....anyway, Theo, I think the 40's are sleepers.....they ARE gonna prove valuable.....hey better than copper clad post 64's...have a good weekend bud...pray for peace.n.

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

I'll probably start selling some of my uglier generic "Santa"rounds at $100 and purchase something that looks nicer.
I might let some of the uglier .925 "only got one of that kind" spoons go around that price too.

$100/oz Ag has a nice ring to it!

Computer Jones wrote:

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

I'll probably start selling some of my uglier generic "Santa"rounds at $100 and purchase something that looks nicer.
I might let some of the uglier .925 "only got one of that kind" spoons go around that price too.

$100/oz Ag has a nice ring to it!

$1,000/toz Ag is better.

think i'm nutz? watch.

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

When the masses start screaming to buy, I might take some off the table to wait for a pullback...don't know how bad inflation will be between now and then, so I won't put an arbitrary number on it.

Other than that, I'll do what people did before the dollar was debased; Keep stacking shiny metal coins until I want something badly enough to part with my savings.

neilgin1 wrote:

theo wrote:

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

I might use a future overbought market as a chance to offload some of my less desirable Ag (40% halves, tarnished rounds.. . .etc) and use the funds to cycle into gold or cheaper silver after a possible sell off.

theo, I would NEVER tell another guy how to play his hand, but imho, those 40% Kenn's that everybody holds in low esteem, those are the silver coins a lot of trade is going to happen in. its a case of numbers. everybody will be making it up as they go along.....'what's this worth, whats that worth?' meanwhile we minted 439 MILLION 90% Kenn halves and then we minted 840 million 40% Kenn halves.....840 million, each containing almost a fifth of toz of silver....THAT...right there will be OUR "money supply"....the average American uses to GET BY, buy flour, buy eggs, canned tomatoes, cig's...whatever we need, while these little grey men, these pygmy's who have got us into this mess, TRY and figure a "way out".

i'm not saying what I think about them....anyway, Theo, I think the 40's are sleepers.....they ARE gonna prove valuable.....hey better than copper clad post 64's...have a good weekend bud...pray for peace.n.

I've given up trying to time this. Overall, the entire situation is and has been (for at least 3 years) completely unstable with the system being artificially supported - the global economy should have collapsed a number of times already but has been artfully propped up, so it's really difficult to tell which and when the next support that fails will be the one that can't be patched by TPTB. There certainly are a number of things coming to a head in the next four months, and I'll be watching closely, but I won't be surprised if we get past these. If issues are known (at least to those that are paying attention) then the term "black swan" doesn't really apply - does it? There are dozens of events underway that qualify as potential black swans, but are really grey swans. The true black swan may be the small, seemingly (on its own) trivial thing that is the tipping point that causes one or more of the large grey swans to become uncontrollable.

Whatever it is that happens... I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen seemingly instantly without warning. We'll just get up some morning and see BREAKING NEWS scrolling on all the news channels, and gold up $150 to $200 or more dollars, and silver up $4 to $8 dollars. Stock market will be down 2000 points and trading suspended. ATM's will be empty and Banks on holiday. At least we've been pre-warned (a prepper's conscience) and will stand a fighting chance. The sheeple? "Baaaah, baaaaahhhh!" Lined up for the shearing.

Peter Schiff will be interviewed on CNBC and his comment will be "nyuck, nyuck, nyuck... told you so."

Yeah - that'll be start of day one. The eastern markets after US close will then go ape-sh*t, and gold will jump another $200 while their markets drop 30%.

Day two will start with the European markets attempting to open, but will drop 30% in minutes so trading is "suspended for technical reasons". The bond markets collapse, and the banks go crying to the national banks crying for relief. Overnight, the US Financial Stability Oversight Council will have met in emergency session and recommendations will include shoring up the TBTF institutions with Fed support, authorizing them to buy to some tentative limits as the market opens in order to shore up public opinion.

http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Doc ... 111910.pdf

The US market will attempt open and the TBTF institutions will be buying their own piss, using Fed support to finance. Meanwhile media relations will be out in full force attempting to calm the public. They will succeed for a short time as people digest the news in disbelief, while normalcy bias freezes them in fear and prevents them from acting immediately. However, the private institutions not beholden to the government will start dumping to get ahead of the train. The FSOC actions will start to fail, the market will start tip again, will drop another 1000 points, and the market will close again. Gold will jump another $500 oz and will set a new modern record.

Overnight, the Asian markets will now fully crash, down another 40%, and gold will break $3000/oz, then $4000/oz and climbing.

Day 3, the IMF stupidly throws in their last 2000 tons to try to calm the gold market, and the price briefly drops back down to $3000/oz while this fresh installment is instantly digested by any combination of the BRIC entitiies that can get their bids in in time. China and Russia will be the major bidders on top of this food fight to get what they need. After that 2000 tons is digested there is no more offered. The price rises to $10,000/oz, but realistically it can't be had. In the US, the market opens late as the FSOC attempts to get a handle on what to do. At this point my ability to speculate on the details wanes, but the point is that paper assets will by this point be headed toward valueless. I think the US then declares an emergency, fixes the market, institutes "temporary" wage and price controls, and tries to regain order. They will fail but several weeks will ensue before it becomes obvious that trade has come to a stand-still and certain goods will become in increasingly short supply. A barter market will start to take over. Businesses will close, people will lose their jobs and their incomes, and riots and looting will start in the larger and less affluent areas. Limited martial law will be declared in several areas.

World-wide, regional conflicts will explode. The US will be unable to influence these and will pull back to main bases and go on alert.

This is just the start of ugly - it gets worse from this point but could go in any of ten different directions.

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

My exit is not really a specific dollar amount.

The most likely exit point for me is when the metals to local real estate ratio reaches
a point where it appears possible and worthwhile to buy a rental property. I know a
few people currently renting (OK, actually almost everyone I know is a renter) who if
they could get a slightly better place for the same as they are paying now they would
move. Of course if I held a mortgage free property I'd have a competitive edge over
every landlord who is leveraged to the hilt. It's worth giving the people I know a better
deal as I know they'ld be stable tenants. (As opposed to a lot of other renters that
are...unstable...kind of a gamble renting to people you don't know.)

Of course if the banking system isn't working at all for an extended time period and/
or government isn't functioning that plan goes out the window. In that case it becomes
impossible to get title transfered even if I had physical in hand (most of what I have
isn't, most of my money is tied up in an RRSP and some in a TFSA invested in Canadian
PM ETFs) and also impares anyone's ability to get paid which would make any potential
tenant unreliable even if they are someone who normally is.

So I'm really hoping for a much milder scenerio where maybe I could get a forclosure
for half of my stack (including the "virtual stack" in ETFs.) If it got so bad that I
could get a house for half of my actual physical I'm not sure I'd be wanting to be in
this neighborhood anymore myself. *_*

68Camaro wrote:Businesses will close, people will lose their jobs and their incomes, and riots and looting will start in the larger and less affluent areas.

Reminds of the prediction the owner of the local coin shop told me weeks ago. He's been in the coin business for over 20 years and he predicts that in 10 to 15 years the economy in this country will be marked by massive unemployment resulting from huge pension obligations being paid to an ever increasing retired population. This unemployment will be highest with young people. Consequently groups and gangs of young, unemployment, hopeless teenagers and young adults will be roaming the streets robbing and killing well-off retired people in acts of both survival and anger as they take out their frustrations on the people they see as being responsible for creating an economic environment that has given them no hope for employment and a decent standard of living.

The owner of the local coin shop may just be right.....

pennypicker wrote:

68Camaro wrote:Businesses will close, people will lose their jobs and their incomes, and riots and looting will start in the larger and less affluent areas.

Reminds of the prediction the owner of the local coin shop told me weeks ago. He's been in the coin business for over 20 years and he predicts that in 10 to 15 years the economy in this country will be marked by massive unemployment resulting from huge pension obligations being paid to an ever increasing retired population. This unemployment will be highest with young people. Consequently groups and gangs of young, unemployment, hopeless teenagers and young adults will be roaming the streets robbing and killing well-off retired people in acts of both survival and anger as they take out their frustrations on the people they see as being responsible for creating an economic environment that has given them no hope for employment and a decent standard of living.

The owner of the local coin shop may just be right.....

I wouldn't be surprised regarding the robbing and killing... but I think alot of pension obligations will be reneged upon via bankruptcy proceedings Bad enough that hyperinflation will depreciate their value down to nothing, and that ZIRP negates any possibility of living off a decent return from invested capital. I'm kinda glad I'm already an old fart and won't be around for this (there, Thogey... now's your chance to come back and zing me again )

I'm almost as old a fart as you, and unfortunately I have to plan as though I will need to live through this. We might both see this; I'm not sure I'll "out-die" it, and the balance of my family certainly won't so my two daughters will certainly see this, as well my nieces and nephews.

neilgin1 wrote:

Computer Jones wrote:

rsk1963 wrote:I know this will not be a favorable question but where's the exits for everyone?

I'll probably start selling some of my uglier generic "Santa"rounds at $100 and purchase something that looks nicer.
I might let some of the uglier .925 "only got one of that kind" spoons go around that price too.

$100/oz Ag has a nice ring to it!

$1,000/toz Ag is better.

think i'm nutz? watch.

10-4 on $1k/oz ringing prettier.
I'll be in the game dribbling some out then, too.

The main thing I'm watching will be the Gold/Silver ratio, when it "gets back to where it once belonged", I'm doing some major reallocating.
(Or I'll be gone and the ones after me will know how to play the hand I left 'em!)