Realcent.org

The fed meeting tomorrow will probably indicate an end to "QE2" thus pushing silver lower. However I think we will still see bond buying, though it may be through banks which the Fed funds, such as Goldman Sachs. Still don't believe silver is a buying opportunity yet.

DeanStockwell wrote:The fed meeting tomorrow will probably indicate an end to "QE2" thus pushing silver lower. However I think we will still see bond buying, though it may be through banks which the Fed funds, such as Goldman Sachs. Still don't believe silver is a buying opportunity yet.

There will be a faux public "end" to QE, for the moment, but it has to continue in the background. No one else is buying the bonds, and the government officially goes broke without the continued borrowing of money via the T-bond sales.

68Camaro wrote:

DeanStockwell wrote:The fed meeting tomorrow will probably indicate an end to "QE2" thus pushing silver lower. However I think we will still see bond buying, though it may be through banks which the Fed funds, such as Goldman Sachs. Still don't believe silver is a buying opportunity yet.

There will be a faux public "end" to QE, for the moment, but it has to continue in the background. No one else is buying the bonds, and the government officially goes broke without the continued borrowing of money via the T-bond sales.

does it even matter if we end the QE stuff at this point?

Im not sure the time frame but many folks in china are calling for them to re diversify 2 trillion held in reserves...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/c ... 842843.htm

At the same time the BRICS nations are working out trade agreements that exclude the dollar as the reserve currency. and the IMF is more openly talking about their SDR abilities all the time..... the dollars fate seems sealed with or without QE3..... We sure arent getting any indication our leaders are ready to make tough choices either.... in fact just the opposite, they are patting themselves on the back for a job well done with QE2.....

America may have an ace in the hole with India. We are a better ally than china, china supports pakistan over their land dispute. Plus we are currently bringing them up out of 3rd world status.

-Edit spelling and save a reply-

I know, comment speaks for itself. America is not falling that easy.

whatsnext wrote:America may have an ace in the hole with India. We are a better ally than china, china supports pakistan over there land dispute. Plus we are currently bringing them up out of 3rd world status.

India is one of the BRICS nations looking to stop using the dollar in their trading.

Treetop wrote:does it even matter if we end the QE stuff at this point?

They can't end QE for many years. They've boxed themselves into a corner. We're slowly being pushed into socialism or worse. Since they won't eliminate entitlements, it's the only remaining option out of a list of bad ones, since they can't balance the budget for years, if ever.

Wouldn't call this the certain true floor of a correction/reaction, but it seems the push down this morning was weak, and the response strong enough to keep the price at $45. We'll see if that holds.

Don't really know if this drop alone would constitute a correction. We could have a bit way down to go from here. Not backed by any research because I'm out of silver positions for now, though.

DeanStockwell wrote:Don't really know if this drop alone would constitute a correction. We could have a bit way down to go from here. Not backed by any research because I'm out of silver positions for now, though.

Time will tell. However, it seems to have held, and is pushing back up late this afternoon. And the dollar is back below 73.8 again...

SILVER looking stronger this evening, up 57c to $46.17. If $47 is soon regained, momentum will resume in a decisive manner. The correction has spanned 10.5% from top to bottom, perhaps that might do. The dollar is looking weaker once again, DXY= 73.61. If GOLD maintains resolutely above $1500 and does not correct below, SILVER will regain it's composure and move higher. This evening Geitner made a pitch that it was the Treasury's policy to maintain a stronger dollar. Perhaps tomorrow, the Bernank will intimate just the opposite with a stay the course no change in policy message that will lead to a further weaking of the dollar and a concommitant resumption of higher PM and commodity prices. We shall see....

I do think we're at a period of unusual uncertainty, of uncertain duration (maybe a month or two), during which both silver and gold may pause or slow a bit and go more sideways in the midst of more significant volatility. Reality is the weirdness at the Fed, continued massive debt, continued money printing (no matter what it is called), weakness in congress that is unable to make significant progress toward a reasonable budget, weakening dollar (though it may get temporarily propped up again), growing awareness that inflation is real, 3 wars, etc, etc. But there are so many people desperate for positive signs that the media is literally salivating, manufacturing "positive" feel-good stories while ignoring the massive icebergs around us. That and unknown forces behind the scenes could prop things up for a few more weeks. But at the moment (and predicting the timing of things is always a danger) I'm anticipating a good chance of a major meltdown by the end of June.

68Camaro wrote:I do think we're at a period of unusual uncertainty, of uncertain duration (maybe a month or two), during which both silver and gold may pause or slow a bit and go more sideways in the midst of more significant volatility. Reality is the weirdness at the Fed, continued massive debt, continued money printing (no matter what it is called), weakness in congress that is unable to make significant progress toward a reasonable budget, weakening dollar (though it may get temporarily propped up again), growing awareness that inflation is real, 3 wars, etc, etc. But there are so many people desperate for positive signs that the media is literally salivating, manufacturing "positive" feel-good stories while ignoring the massive icebergs around us. That and unknown forces behind the scenes could prop things up for a few more weeks. But at the moment (and predicting the timing of things is always a danger) I'm anticipating a good chance of a major meltdown by the end of June.

i disagree, I dont see it going sideways for more then a few days. Up or down it will start moving soon, imo. this is a global market...

Treetop wrote:i disagree, I dont see it going sideways for more then a few days. Up or down it will start moving soon, imo. this is a global market...

OK. We'll see. I would be happy with that. But even in a global market, and even though the US influence is diminshing quickly, the world is still driven by the US/UK/Euro market and related financials. If this was a free market I would agree with you, but it's not.

68Camaro wrote:

Treetop wrote:i disagree, I dont see it going sideways for more then a few days. Up or down it will start moving soon, imo. this is a global market...

OK. We'll see. I would be happy with that. But even in a global market, and even though the US influence is diminshing quickly, the world is still driven by the US/UK/Euro market and related financials. If this was a free market I would agree with you, but it's not.

Well thats true yet, its generally over seas markets its driven up(with OUR issues the likely driver of much of that), and brought back down in our own. atleast often enough it sticks out to me.

the fundamentals didnt change. we didnt convince a soul outside of our own country we are even considering fixing our economy or dollar in any meaningful way. With lots of info just in the last week or two that literally signaled the end of an era.

Look up the BRICS story I keep linking. Its barely mentioned in american news, but its in hordes of international sources. same with people in china calling for a reduction in their dollar reserves by 2 trillion.

To me the market is just WAY to charged to stay going sideways for to long. If it does i feel lots of folks will either think the correction is over and jump back in, or take some profit intending to jump back in in a month or whatever....

And so... it's either "our side" taking advantage of selling to make a profit from the overpriced silver foolishly driven up by "overnight markets," or "their side" taking advantage of repeated "price-smoothing" implemented by market-timers and Da Boyz to amass underpriced silver foolishly liquidated in their "overnight markets." Which side is right? Time will tell, but I think a well-oriented individual can already answer that question for themselves.

Treetop wrote:the fundamentals didnt change. we didnt convince a soul outside of our own country we are even considering fixing our economy or dollar in any meaningful way. With lots of info just in the last week or two that literally signaled the end of an era.

Look up the BRICS story I keep linking. Its barely mentioned in american news, but its in hordes of international sources. same with people in china calling for a reduction in their dollar reserves by 2 trillion.

To me the market is just WAY to charged to stay going sideways for to long. If it does i feel lots of folks will either think the correction is over and jump back in, or take some profit intending to jump back in in a month or whatever....

Well aware of what the BRICS countries are doing. And I suspect we don't even have a clue what else is going on behind the scenes in other countries. They would be fools to just let this ride, and I think they are not fools. Nature abhors a vacuum, and the US is leaving behind one that others are jostling to fill, to their benefit. So I think we violently agree. I just allow the possibility that the Wizard of Oz can keep up the show for a few more weeks, before the curtain is pulled open...

typically the metal prices fall going into options expiration and then continue their upward trajectory, often with a vengence. if eric king is right and this is the asians trying to sqeeze the shorts they won't care one flip about QE2 ending - they know its for show.

Country wrote:SILVER looking stronger this evening, up 57c to $46.17. If $47 is soon regained, momentum will resume in a decisive manner. The correction has spanned 10.5% from top to bottom, perhaps that might do. The dollar is looking weaker once again, DXY= 73.61. If GOLD maintains resolutely above $1500 and does not correct below, SILVER will regain it's composure and move higher. This evening Geitner made a pitch that it was the Treasury's policy to maintain a stronger dollar. Perhaps tomorrow, the Bernank will intimate just the opposite with a stay the course no change in policy message that will lead to a further weaking of the dollar and a concommitant resumption of higher PM and commodity prices. We shall see....

It looks like it's playing out as I thought. SILVER is regaining $47 right now at $46.79. This correction could be over and the strong upward momentum soon regained.

Country wrote:

Country wrote:SILVER looking stronger this evening, up 57c to $46.17. If $47 is soon regained, momentum will resume in a decisive manner. The correction has spanned 10.5% from top to bottom, perhaps that might do. The dollar is looking weaker once again, DXY= 73.61. If GOLD maintains resolutely above $1500 and does not correct below, SILVER will regain it's composure and move higher. This evening Geitner made a pitch that it was the Treasury's policy to maintain a stronger dollar. Perhaps tomorrow, the Bernank will intimate just the opposite with a stay the course no change in policy message that will lead to a further weaking of the dollar and a concommitant resumption of higher PM and commodity prices. We shall see....

It looks like it's playing out as I thought. SILVER is regaining $47 right now at $46.79. This correction could be over and the strong upward momentum soon regained.

I think unless the Berninator had announced, "As of today, we are disbanding the fraudulent Fed Res (which would have caused some short-term consternation in worldwide markets)," the only way for Ag to go is up. We may pause occasionally on some breath-catching plateaus, but the market is showing how little it thinks of FRNs, one of which only buys 1/47th of an oz of Ag.

68Camaro wrote:

Treetop wrote:the fundamentals didnt change. we didnt convince a soul outside of our own country we are even considering fixing our economy or dollar in any meaningful way. With lots of info just in the last week or two that literally signaled the end of an era.

Look up the BRICS story I keep linking. Its barely mentioned in american news, but its in hordes of international sources. same with people in china calling for a reduction in their dollar reserves by 2 trillion.

To me the market is just WAY to charged to stay going sideways for to long. If it does i feel lots of folks will either think the correction is over and jump back in, or take some profit intending to jump back in in a month or whatever....

Well aware of what the BRICS countries are doing. And I suspect we don't even have a clue what else is going on behind the scenes in other countries. They would be fools to just let this ride, and I think they are not fools. Nature abhors a vacuum, and the US is leaving behind one that others are jostling to fill, to their benefit. So I think we violently agree. I just allow the possibility that the Wizard of Oz can keep up the show for a few more weeks, before the curtain is pulled open...

Well Im sure the wizard will keep the curtain closed for longer then that for many. Most people are rather gullible and never study issues. They get their news from 10 second sound bites.

the whole show doesnt have to fall apart for 50 dollar silver, or even 100.

I do think its going to head back up, but really my point was just that I feel the market is WAY to charged for it to remain somewhat sideways for to long. heck yesterday there was like 1.40 difference between its top and low. thats around 2 bucks so far today. Seems like a LOT of weight and speculation is thrown around. with that going on, I feel it will decidedly break one way or the other by tomorrow or the next day. Its pattern kinda implies up to my untrained eyes.

There's a few heavyweights that are sitting this out (David Morgan, Puru Saxena)... but I want to believe they are being overly cautious. We'll find out. If silver retests the $50 barrier again, and fails, that could mean the current rise does not carry sufficient conviction to convincingly pierce the barrier and carry onward. In such a case, along with seasonal weakness, several weeks of sideways trading, or slightly downwards bias, could be expected. I feel there is too much strength (those buying on dips) bouying the market, providing a substantial floor, to permit a waterfall event, should one occur, to be of anything but short duration.

Helicopter Ben speaks, silver goes up $1.70+ $2.50 Someone isnt buying his bullship.

Silver is exploding.

If we could just get BennyBoy to hold a press conference everyday we could see $200 silver by the end of May.