SILVER - WAS $31-$49, WAS $33-$43, NOW $44+

[slickeast]

$50 TODAY? humm maybe.

I thought that a post about $50 would not happen this year

[Country]

SILVER has seen accumulation by the big boys at around $48.50 for a couple days now (flag pattern again - slight pause before the upward trend resumes). When the shorts pushed SILVER down to $47.20, notice how quickly it snapped back to $48.50. Today SILVER has moved higher to $49 again. Once the sellers have completed their planned profit taking around the $50 level, we could easily see a quick 10% pop to $55 SILVER. I believe we will see $51+ SILVER in the early May.

[henrysmedford]

$50 TODAY? humm maybe.

I thought that a post about $50 would not happen this year

Lets go for the $1600 Gold today!

[68Camaro]

At the risk of being a wet blanket, I don't see anything going "parabolic" yet. We're still largely on a linear slope, the value of which does move a bit up and down month to month. $6/month in Feb, $2 in Mar, $10 in Apr. April "appears" spectacular, but when you step back a bit, it is still averaging $6/month for the past 3 months.

After each significant gain there is a consolidation time during which the market moves to the side for a few days (or longer). The volatility has increased, but not as much as it might appear, as a +/-$2 range at $50 is the same range, percentagewise, as +/- $1 at $25.

To Dean's concern about why the technicals look so "bad", I don't have a solid answer. It will be obvious in hindsight, but that doesn't help in the here and now. I suspect it is a combination of the strange economic times, combined with a market that has been manipulated for price control. So the natural price of a free market (which technicals most closely model) hasn't been allowed to be achieved, and instead we've got this artificial market, which technicals can't make sense of. Some of the common sense aspects of TA still need to be paid attention to. Eventually there will be an artificial boom, with an unrealistic top, which you do NOT want to be caught out in. You need to complete your buying well in advance of that, and then do NOT set your expectations by the max value of whatever top we get. But I'm not sure if TA can help find that high. I wish it could.

[Lemon Thrower]

i think mid may we are down from here, and then above where we are today by end of may.

[brian0918]

At the risk of being a wet blanket, I don't see anything going "parabolic" yet. We're still largely on a linear slope, the value of which does move a bit up and down month to month. $6/month in Feb, $2 in Mar, $10 in Apr. April "appears" spectacular, but when you step back a bit, it is still averaging $6/month for the past 3 months.

On a parabolic chart, you'll still see linear slopes within any given time period. It's just that the slope is more and more steep as time passes. That is what we are seeing in silver (on a 10-year chart), so it is going parabolic. But that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to come back down.

[68Camaro]

I would argue the 10-year chart is tri-linear. Essentially unchanged from Jan 2000 thru end of 2003. Increasing at a constant rate from Jan 2004 thru about Jun 2010 (with a correction in 2008, but continuing on after at essentially same slope), and then a slope change in summer 2010 to now; still linear, at a higher slope. One can fit a parabola through it, but the better fit is three distinct lines, and each of the three slopes are distinct for specific reasons over a range with distinctive start and end points, which the parabola doesn't know about. We are not yet at the true parabolic point. When we actually get there there will be no debate about it - it will be obvious (and quickly catastrophic to the person on the wrong side of it).

If we are truly starting to go parabolic (or quad-linear with yet another slope increase), we will know it very soon. If so, we will blow by 50 by early next week and be into the mid 50s by early May, and 60+ by end of May. However, instead, it looks like silver is taking a breather today while gold catches up.

Regardless, we will know soon.

[McDuck]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42776127

Not that I trust CNBC, but I do respect Jim Rogers and subsequently his unique perspective on the recent moves by silver.

How much is an ounce of silver actually worth? That seems to be the $64,000 question that nobody has a straight answer for at the moment.

In my opinion we seem to be in a once-in-a-generation price discovery phase given the current (and somewhat insane) geo-political economic environment.

But what yardstick does one use to accurately measure such a thing? The price on the Comex, the gold/silver ratio, ebay sellers, sovereign foreign buyers, how many suits you can buy, how many ounces you can stack, etc?

I honestly wish I knew because I'm sure it would put a nice Ferrari 458 Italia in my driveway complete with a few kilo gold bars in the passenger seat.

[68Camaro]

Looked at your link - I think Rodgers has a good perspective; agrees with my view.

[brian0918]

Rogers doesn't really have an argument in that story. I think it was more just a brief comment from Rogers, that CNBC wanted to turn into a big scare story about silver going unsustainably parabolic. You can see my reasons in this post why fundamentally silver isn't approaching a bubble.

[Lemon Thrower]

rogers for the last 3 or 4 years speaks out of both sides of his mouth.

[beauanderos]

Wasn't that cute of the reporter to misquote Rogers in order to provide a headline? He said IF silver rises much more and becomes parabolic, not that it has.

[68Camaro]

rogers for the last 3 or 4 years speaks out of both sides of his mouth.

I was a bit surprised to read the view posted, as it seemed at odds with things Rodgers has noted before. I don't follow the guy; he may have some things right, but something about him creeps me out.

[aloneibreak]

anyone watching silver on kitco ??

[theo]

Silver down almost a $1 in early trading, while gold is up modestly. Get ready for some volitality.

[henrysmedford]

anyone watching silver on kitco ??

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[theo]

Silver down $4.50. Wow!

[beauanderos]

This seems like an act of desperation on the part of da boyz. For them to hit this hard to try and scare weak hands off, they must know something pretty bad is approaching to carry the market to the opposite side of the pendulum.

[Treetop]

yeah, a correction wouldnt surprise me, but straight down? even steep down, ok.... but Id need an explanation for this to not think something strange happened...

[beauanderos]

The shorts are trying to front run a dollar meltdown, expected at any moment

[theo]

The fact that silver is getting decimated and gold is holding up nicely suggests manipulation. Of course a big sell off like this could make the silver physical shortage more pronounced.

[panther]

The fact that silver is getting decimated and gold is holding up nicely suggests manipulation. Of course a big sell off like this could make the silver physical shortage more pronounced.

or.. it could mean silver is overpriced compared to gold... and the market is correcting this

just my .02

[theo]

Now gold is starting to fall. Down $20 now.

We'll see if these price levels get confirmed in the western markets tomorrow morning.

[panther]

it's an overall commodities sell-off. check out oil, gold, and silver together. yes, silver is down 5% compared to 1-2% for gold. and oil is down 1%. however, the chart patterns are the same, it doesnt look like pure silver manipulation to me

[Rodebaugh]

Maybe money is flowing out of risky silver and into safe cash.

yes this is a joke.