Did you do it?

[scyther]

My issue is this, whether JFF or anyone else. Save your "silver is gonna go up unless it goes down" predictions for someplace else. Dude if you really knew were the price of metals was gonna go, you wouldn't be giving that info away here for free. Is it fun to talk about what we think is gonna happen? Yes ,of course. But I have a problem with "experts" with their fancy charts and what not thinking that they know what is going to happen and then willing their influence onto their cult followers. I know I am not the only one here that feels this way. Some are more prudent than me. I just can't take it anymore. If you ignore this guy, he will go away. I myself as well as many others here own their own shops. We don't make money by selling metal at spot. Especially when you are into it for more that.

Indeed. Although apparently he's made great calls before, since many people here seem to respect his expertise. They say he's been right many times before, and I don't have a problem believing that. But I've never seen it. He predicted silver would go up in price last summer. Eventually it did a month later. Doesn't silver usually go up in the fall? Not an amazing prediction, but I guess that counts as success. He predicted it would go up in December. It went down. He predicted it would go up 200-400% in March or April (I don't remember exactly when, before the price crash). Instead, it went down $5 to a multi-year low. Obviously he isn't omniscient.

[scyther]

I agree with why some people buy junk (Also realize that a lot of junk has been melted and used in industry). However, I believe earlier you said silver is primarily a financial instrument. It is not and your belief that you don't believe silver is more an industrial than precious/monetary/financial metal is not correct. You may personally prefer to hold it as a financial instrument, but the majority by far is used in industry. Approximately 10% of silver mined is used for coins and medals.

Still haven't told you where to buy 1 oz without high premiums? Sorry I must have missed that. Saw another thread in the forum where 1 oz from Monarch is going for $1.50 premium if I recall. That seems reasonable but that is subjective. Start my own retail shop to put extortionists out of business? I could. However, time also heals parasites. Most unscrupulous bucketeers are like parasites who breech their own law of survival and kill their host.

I thought I remember hearing that only 40% of silver was used in industry. Maybe I was wrong. In any case, the rise in price in the last 10 years alongside gold suggested to me that increased demand was mainly for investments and not industry.

Yes, a month later there is someone selling for $1.50 over for generic bullion rounds. Provident has been for a couple weeks now, actually. I don't believe anyone was right after the price drop. And even now, I don't think you can find ASEs or 90% close to spot anywhere.

[theo]

JFF is obviously very knowledgeable and I welcome his views, however I can't ignore the holes in his arguments. He blames the increased premiums on unscrupulous dealers ("some not all he later admits") who charge excessive premiums. The fact is these "bucket shops" (mostly pawn shops) charge heavy premiums regardless of what the spot price is. They didn't suddenly appear when the spot price started dropping. A few shops in my area were charging 30% to 50% premiums when silver was still above $40. These premiums are irrelevant to most of us as we know who to buy from and who to avoid.

[Jonflyfish]

My point is and has been this- when the market was selling off, There was a very wide disparity among the small fragmented dealers where some were offering spot + $3 and others $11+ for the same coin. There ARE predatory dealers who price gouge because they can, or justify such because they have to or they go out of business for not hedging their cost basis.

I don't entirely disagree with the principle of this particular position (other than the use of the term "price gouging" because such a thing does not exist in a truly free market), but that is not the generalized "physical premiums are too high and dealers are gouging" position you started off with a few weeks ago. Targeting shady "bucket shops" (whatever that means) is much different from a general insistence that silver is available at "normal premiums" on the wholesale level and dealers who are charging increased premiums are unscrupulous. You will probably respond that I am twisting your words or some such because I haven't taken the time to comb through and quote your posts from the dozen or so pages in the previous thread and the three in this new one, but anybody who has followed the entire conversation will be able to see the backpedaling and the addition of qualifiers to make a previously broad and indefensible position more appealing. It feels like a cop out.
/quote]
Please, you keep twisting the narrative to fit your agenda. As you admitted, you failed to read the facts, so you made them up then commented about them.
There is no backpedaling. There are no additional qualifiers. The cop out is that you keep changing the facts and blatantly lying and misrepresenting what my position is then making cockamamie disparaging remarks. It doesn't work.
The ardent tone of your defense and the fact that you misrepresent my statements is interesting, given that you are on the sell side of the business.
You can attack me all you want. That is your prerogative. You can continue to say "JFF is this or that type of guy and let me tell y'all a few things about how I feel about those guys" even though your judgement and presumptions are false and ill intended. Such is categorically false and despicable behavior.

The unscrupulous bunch of bucketeer dealers are pikers and predatory thieves. Buyer beware. They are out there, and quite frankly, perhaps from some of the comments recently, on this forum as well.
I never said dealers in general were price gouging and were extortionists. However, I did claim such about those who chose to charge 3 or 4+ times the normal premium recently when OTHERS were not for the same coin. I applaud those who did not engage in gouging. They are the champions of retail dealers. They prove who can be trusted and who cannot. The bucket shop low end of the food chain were pumping and screaming about how, even during a precipitous drop in metal prices was occurring, the world has run out of silver etc etc etc. Now, a small few weeks later, premiums are more normalized across the board. Have talked about why numerous times here. Some just want others to pay for their losses, regardless of what is right vs wrong.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

My issue is this, whether JFF or anyone else. Save your "silver is gonna go up unless it goes down" predictions for someplace else. Dude if you really knew were the price of metals was gonna go, you wouldn't be giving that info away here for free. Is it fun to talk about what we think is gonna happen? Yes ,of course. But I have a problem with "experts" with their fancy charts and what not thinking that they know what is going to happen and then willing their influence onto their cult followers. I know I am not the only one here that feels this way. Some are more prudent than me. I just can't take it anymore. If you ignore this guy, he will go away. I myself as well as many others here own their own shops. We don't make money by selling metal at spot. Especially when you are into it for more that.

"Dude", for one, if you know me, I am the first to say that the nonexistent future is always unknowable. And, you don't need to know the future in order to make a lot of money trading.
You can't take it any more? What can't you take?

I do understand how revealing unscrupulous behavior by SOME dealers would raise the blood pressure of some pushers in the business.

BTW- I do not wish to influence anyone here. I've been happy to share some views and thoughts, just like anyone else though. And, I often say DYOD( Do Your Own Diligence) for a reason, friend.

Cheers!

[inflationhawk]

JFF, curious to know your thoughts on this. Are there unscrupulous participants in the paper markets? Or do you think they only exist in the physical markets?

[Jonflyfish]

My issue is this, whether JFF or anyone else. Save your "silver is gonna go up unless it goes down" predictions for someplace else. Dude if you really knew were the price of metals was gonna go, you wouldn't be giving that info away here for free. Is it fun to talk about what we think is gonna happen? Yes ,of course. But I have a problem with "experts" with their fancy charts and what not thinking that they know what is going to happen and then willing their influence onto their cult followers. I know I am not the only one here that feels this way. Some are more prudent than me. I just can't take it anymore. If you ignore this guy, he will go away. I myself as well as many others here own their own shops. We don't make money by selling metal at spot. Especially when you are into it for more that.

Indeed. Although apparently he's made great calls before, since many people here seem to respect his expertise. They say he's been right many times before, and I don't have a problem believing that. But I've never seen it. He predicted silver would go up in price last summer. Eventually it did a month later. Doesn't silver usually go up in the fall? Not an amazing prediction, but I guess that counts as success. He predicted it would go up in December. It went down. He predicted it would go up 200-400% in March or April (I don't remember exactly when, before the price crash). Instead, it went down $5 to a multi-year low. Obviously he isn't omniscient.

I won't pretend to be the market seer. I also never know what's going to happen before it happens. I also said 200-400% rise after the precipitous fall was finished. I have never said that it was finished. However, at the low price just after today's open, I feel comfortable with the idea of $40-60 silver on the horizon. Will it happen? I could be wrong of course.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

I agree with why some people buy junk (Also realize that a lot of junk has been melted and used in industry). However, I believe earlier you said silver is primarily a financial instrument. It is not and your belief that you don't believe silver is more an industrial than precious/monetary/financial metal is not correct. You may personally prefer to hold it as a financial instrument, but the majority by far is used in industry. Approximately 10% of silver mined is used for coins and medals.

Still haven't told you where to buy 1 oz without high premiums? Sorry I must have missed that. Saw another thread in the forum where 1 oz from Monarch is going for $1.50 premium if I recall. That seems reasonable but that is subjective. Start my own retail shop to put extortionists out of business? I could. However, time also heals parasites. Most unscrupulous bucketeers are like parasites who breech their own law of survival and kill their host.

I thought I remember hearing that only 40% of silver was used in industry. Maybe I was wrong. In any case, the rise in price in the last 10 years alongside gold suggested to me that increased demand was mainly for investments and not industry.

Yes, a month later there is someone selling for $1.50 over for generic bullion rounds. Provident has been for a couple weeks now, actually. I don't believe anyone was right after the price drop. And even now, I don't think you can find ASEs or 90% close to spot anywhere.

You can check the facts. They are easy to find.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

JFF is obviously very knowledgeable and I welcome his views, however I can't ignore the holes in his arguments. He blames the increased premiums on unscrupulous dealers ("some not all he later admits") who charge excessive premiums. The fact is these "bucket shops" (mostly pawn shops) charge heavy premiums regardless of what the spot price is. They didn't suddenly appear when the spot price started dropping. A few shops in my area were charging 30% to 50% premiums when silver was still above $40. These premiums are irrelevant to most of us as we know who to buy from and who to avoid.

Hi friend. Been quite consistent about the disparity in pricing and which end of the premium basis I was referring to as the unscrupulous predators.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

JFF, curious to know your thoughts on this. Are there unscrupulous participants in the paper markets? Or do you think they only exist in the physical markets?

There are unscrupulous participants in nearly ANY market. It isn't about paper vs physical, friend. Thought I made that and the other points clear.
But, one more time- I trade physical and financial markets. I have no bias. I have no vested interest in one vs the other. And unlike most of those ardent attackers here, I have no conflict of interest in speaking of one or the other.

Cheers!

[inflationhawk]

Which do more damage to the silver market, unscrupulous traders in financial markets or the small time dealers that sell higher than the market?

[scyther]

My issue is this, whether JFF or anyone else. Save your "silver is gonna go up unless it goes down" predictions for someplace else. Dude if you really knew were the price of metals was gonna go, you wouldn't be giving that info away here for free. Is it fun to talk about what we think is gonna happen? Yes ,of course. But I have a problem with "experts" with their fancy charts and what not thinking that they know what is going to happen and then willing their influence onto their cult followers. I know I am not the only one here that feels this way. Some are more prudent than me. I just can't take it anymore. If you ignore this guy, he will go away. I myself as well as many others here own their own shops. We don't make money by selling metal at spot. Especially when you are into it for more that.

Indeed. Although apparently he's made great calls before, since many people here seem to respect his expertise. They say he's been right many times before, and I don't have a problem believing that. But I've never seen it. He predicted silver would go up in price last summer. Eventually it did a month later. Doesn't silver usually go up in the fall? Not an amazing prediction, but I guess that counts as success. He predicted it would go up in December. It went down. He predicted it would go up 200-400% in March or April (I don't remember exactly when, before the price crash). Instead, it went down $5 to a multi-year low. Obviously he isn't omniscient.

I won't pretend to be the market seer. I also never know what's going to happen before it happens. I also said 200-400% rise after the precipitous fall was finished. I have never said that it was finished. However, at the low price just after today's open, I feel comfortable with the idea of $40-60 silver on the horizon. Will it happen? I could be wrong of course.

Cheers!

If that happens any time in the next 6 months, I'll dig up this thread and apologize. I'm confident I won't have to.

[Jonflyfish]

Which do more damage to the silver market, unscrupulous traders in financial markets or the small time dealers that sell higher than the market?

That's a loaded rhetorical question and as positioned does not reflect my points here.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Cheers!

If that happens any time in the next 6 months, I'll dig up this thread and apologize. I'm confident I won't have to.[/quote]

Apologize for what and why 6 months? Or, are you suggesting that if the markets reflect a certain price by a certain time then you feel differently about the narrative here?

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

It appears obvious to me that the electronic markets are not functioning in their native capacity. If it were the proper matter of what a buyer is willing to pay (ask) and what a seller is willing to sell for (ask) - there are always 2 prices - then we would not see things that we see occurring such as yearly mining volume being moved in a single session, or 50% price swings in a market with relative consistency and predictability on the physical side. There is no rational explanation for the way metal markets behave except for the one which is true, which is that they are independent of supply and demand with fake supply and leverage/margin which serve to both divert demand and invite speculation.

The physical market and the spot price are 2 similar but essentially different things, like sea salt and ocean water. Within that, the eagle market is different than the 90% market is different than the lunar market and so on. They each need to be taken in their own supply/demand context.

It is really only base bullion that follows the paper price, and if that were an accurate price we wouldn't see demand exceeding mining supply each year coupled with historic lows in available supply - while not yet unavailable enough to call the paper pushers' bluff, one day either that must occur or else price increase must occur to bring more metal to market. Time is the question.

How do large dealers price their silver? Do you know what the definition of "spot market" is? I'm concerned that you are saying many things here that are not true or accurate, but rather opinion based.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

and you guys continue to encourage this clown

am i the only one who remembers when JFF used to post about running his ryedale and the copper penny market and food storage and fishing ?

Ah, thanks friend! I still keep the Ryedale's in tip top condition and benefit from food prep and the solace of an occasional moment with the fly rod.

Cheers!

[inflationhawk]

My only point is that these unscrupulous physical market sellers are not relevant to the physical market as a whole and should just be ignored. Why get bent out of shape over them or feel compelled to blast them? They will not last in the marketplace using these practices and those that overpay will learn from their mistake and hopefully be better buyers in the future.

Unfortunately, you can't ignore unscrupulous paper market traders that manipulate the market as they affect everyone. Paper market participants and defenders of the paper market don't really have a leg to stand on calling out unscrupulous physical market participants. The unscrupulous physical market participants perform in the open and are easily spotted. The same cannot be said for paper market traders that can manipulate markets in the shadows.

[scyther]

Apologize for what and why 6 months? Or, are you suggesting that if the markets reflect a certain price by a certain time then you feel differently about the narrative here?

Cheers!

You said that seeing the price today, you felt that $40-$60 silver was "on the horizon". Which means soon. Which means...? You didn't give a time frame, but 6 months seemed reasonable to me. IF that happens, I will apologize for calling out what seems to me to have been a fantastically wrong prediction. It won't change how I feel about premiums or extortion.

[Engineer]

Which do more damage to the silver market, unscrupulous traders in financial markets or the small time dealers that sell higher than the market?

That's a loaded rhetorical question and as positioned does not reflect my points here.

Cheers!

Your own points don't reflect your points here.

The question as he asked it is very pertinent to the discussion, as the illicit/illegal games played in the paper market may be the root cause of your "bucket shop owner" being upside down in the first place.

[Jonflyfish]

Which do more damage to the silver market, unscrupulous traders in financial markets or the small time dealers that sell higher than the market?

That's a loaded rhetorical question and as positioned does not reflect my points here.

Cheers!

Your own points don't reflect your points here. The question as he asked it is very pertinent to the discussion, as the illicit/illegal games played in the paper market may be the root cause of your "bucket shop owner" being upside down in the first place.

Wholeheartedly disagree, friend. What you are suggesting is that anytime someone says something about an unscrupulous market activity that they somehow are obligated to not only point out what they see but subjectively comment on how they feel the impact of that is compared to other markets. I don't see that as relevant nor common practice here. One can argue which market is "best" and why but such comments are subjective and unprovable. Again, I don't care for physical or financial, and that is not the point of what I have been posting here.

What I was posting here was more of a red flag as it was happening to alert folks not to get ripped of by bucket shop predators when there were premiums for the same coins found much lower by those who have integrity and business ethics. Lying to people about shortages and trying to justify excessive premiums is simply wrong. Many people go to the "experts" in their local are, physical or financial and those professionals are trusted to be knowledgeable and honest when dealing with people who approach them for business. The unscrupulous price gougers were noticed when this market activity was happening and I simply pointed it out.
Now, presumably dealers and those who have a vested interest to protect or justify their recent actions are on the attack. I can see why they would. They are in conflict of interest.
What I would have enjoyed seeing was a post from some dealer here to say "yeh, I was there when some of the low life scum that sometime give us a bad rap were gouging folks. My premiums were somewhat elevated but nowhere near the price gouging levels that many of the bucket shops were charging".

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Which do more damage to the silver market, unscrupulous traders in financial markets or the small time dealers that sell higher than the market?

That's a loaded rhetorical question and as positioned does not reflect my points here.

Cheers!

Your own points don't reflect your points here.

The question as he asked it is very pertinent to the discussion, as the illicit/illegal games played in the paper market may be the root cause of your "bucket shop owner" being upside down in the first place.

Your point is purely cantankerous frolic.

Cheers!

[beauanderos]

JFF is right in one regard, I don't feel he has ever claimed to know with certainty the short term direction of silver and gold pricing. He generally justifies his statements with "of course, I could be wrong." People with their own agendas attach inferences to his statements, either to bolster their hope, or to find consensus in their stance to await better entry points. Not unlike the obfuscatory narratives of Alan Greenspan, readers can thus extract what they choose to believe.

The problem may lay, then, not with some knowledgable trader with access to sophisticated tools beyond understanding (in my case) who deigns to share his ideas with members on this site, but with those who award acclaim to his predictions and honor him with the presumptive status of an oracle. I have seen many posts from otherwise credible members of this forum, who each have their own small niche of followers that listen intently when they speak... and their posts pleading with JFF to share his expertise create the illusion that many of these posters appear frozen by indecision when the markets befuddle them.

Could it be that they have difficulty making up their own minds? So they gravitate to one who appears competent, who can boast a curriculum vitae of years of trading experience, desiring some omniscient leader to lend them impetus to quit sitting on the fence? If the implied advice they follow (or what they infer from nebulous statements) is wrong, they can then blame someone else for influencing them... instead of doing their own research, acting on their convictions, and taking responsibility for their own actions.

[Jonflyfish]

Apologize for what and why 6 months? Or, are you suggesting that if the markets reflect a certain price by a certain time then you feel differently about the narrative here?

Cheers!

You said that seeing the price today, you felt that $40-$60 silver was "on the horizon". Which means soon. Which means...? You didn't give a time frame, but 6 months seemed reasonable to me. IF that happens, I will apologize for calling out what seems to me to have been a fantastically wrong prediction. It won't change how I feel about premiums or extortion.

Well unfortunately, what you are saying is similar to the narrative here. I say one thing and it gets twisted into something else to better suit one's agenda.
I did NOT say that silver at $40-60 was "on the horizon". What I did say was this- "I feel comfortable with the idea of $40-60 silver on the horizon. Will it happen? I could be wrong of course"
This is NOT a prediction. I think it's clear how I feel about the non-existent, unknowable future. I have made that abundantly clear over a very long time here.

And that won't change how I feel about the extreme premiums stolen from trusting folks by predator extortionists, either. Additionally, that doesn't change how I feel about those honorable dealers with gold standard business ethics who didn't extort excess premiums and didn't take advantage of people. They are to be saluted.

Cheers!

[Engineer]

Lying to people about shortages and trying to justify excessive premiums is simply wrong.

...and yet your industry does it at every opportunity. The exchange traders are the kings of "pump and dump".

[Jonflyfish]

JFF is right in one regard, I don't feel he has ever claimed to know with certainty the short term direction of silver and gold pricing. He generally justifies his statements with "of course, I could be wrong." People with their own agendas attach inferences to his statements, either to bolster their hope, or to find consensus in their stance to await better entry points. Not unlike the obfuscatory narratives of Alan Greenspan, readers can thus extract what they choose to believe.

The problem may lay, then, not with some knowledgable trader with access to sophisticated tools beyond understanding (in my case) who deigns to share his ideas with members on this site, but with those who award acclaim to his predictions and honor him with the presumptive status of an oracle. I have seen many posts from otherwise credible members of this forum, who each have their own small niche of followers that listen intently when they speak... and their posts pleading with JFF to share his expertise create the illusion that many of these posters appear frozen by indecision when the markets befuddle them.

Could it be that they have difficulty making up their own minds? So they gravitate to one who appears competent, who can boast a curriculum vitae of years of trading experience, desiring some omniscient leader to lend them impetus to quit sitting on the fence? If the implied advice they follow (or what they infer from nebulous statements) is wrong, they can then blame someone else for influencing them... instead of doing their own research, acting on their convictions, and taking responsibility for their own actions.

Excellent post, my friend. I'm no different than anyone here who has been willing to share thoughts and ideas. And, correctly, I know better than to say that I know, when nobody knows the future. One doesn't need to know the future in order to make a lot of money in the markets. Anything can happen. When models give signals they can be right or wrong, its that simple. I do have sophisticated tools and they have helped make an incredible sum, all without knowing the future. With that note, I will depart. The points are clear and the attacks against them were frivolous at best.

Save it be one person that decided to bypass excess premiums and look elsewhere for a better deal or holdout altogether because of information sharing here, I will forever be satisfied with this over lengthy narrative.

Cheers!