Its all a scam.

[TitusFable]

Every thing is a scam; we all would like to believe that our perception of the world is correct. However, power dictates economic conditions. Thus with changes in interstate, regional or global reigms, economic systems will respond in kind.

Currently it seems that fiat money of the nation state will either become the norm or led to a monumental recession where a new currency will gain prominence. If you believe owning property and the ability to create energy as a solid source of economic stability, the government can seize your assets. The same is true with PM. All that the we can do is try and play the game to the best of our ability or try and change it. Thus if the game is leveraging non-existent assets, bankers will flourish while others who cannot enter the market make their way on a less fruitful paths. However if a day comes that the power elite decide that leveraging non-existent assets isn't the best avenue of continuity, they will use plethora of resources to ensure economic-political-social power changes to reflect their new ideology.

So yes it's all a scam. A small percent of the human population is dictating how economic and political systems are organized. These systems are at risk of changing due to a dizzying array of factors: from scientific, societal and to factors beyond our current comprension.

Just enjoy what you have now and try not to harm others to enrich yourself (despite that being that easiest way in most systems.) Please and thanks!

[Recyclersteve]

the government can seize your assets. The same is true with PM.

And that could be why some people do things like prepping in a stealth manner or live off the grid.

I get a kick out of someone who is a pepper, but has an extravagant 10,000 soft. mansion and drives a Hummer in a neighborhood of houses 1/5 that size. Don't you think they would be a target if SHTF?

If you were the U.S. government and looking to raid a home (due to, say, a shortage of bullets like we had in 1943), which one would you rather raid? To anyone who says, "I'd NEVER knock on that door", you could always send a robot and drones to do the dirty work.

[spacecase0]

silver is the most conductive element out there
if transformed into its single element form it kills bacteria and viruses
it has actual industrial uses for more than just that
I bought quite a bit of copper today, and I don't care if its price goes up or down, I need something to conduct electricity and heat, but silver would work for that.
I got most of my silver at about 30 an ounce, nothing I can do about that now.
and am about ready to melt it down to make wire or pipe.
or maybe silver plate a copper water tank,
bacteria will die in a silver water tank ...
start drinking water from silver cups and eating food with silver forks, see how much better off you are
you can get real quality of life help if you know how to use silver to help you.

[Recyclersteve]

In a bit of a squeamish type application, even catheters often have silver coatings on them. I'd rather have a silver coated one made domestically than one made in China that is coated with God knows what...

There are tons of very important uses for silver, no question about it. But there are two big problems that can keep silver down for a long time:

1) Since silver is typically mined as a byproduct of zinc, lead, copper or gold, the cost associated with the silver is often calculated as zero (literally), so miners can and do sell silver at prices way below what you might think it costs them.

2) Silver futures- the futures (paper) market is supposed to be something like 100x the size of the physical market. So if someone wants to short silver in a big way, that is how they can do it, assuming of course they have the resources to do so.

My guess on what could turn silver around- a large manufacturer (think Ford, DowDuPont, an Apple supplier, etc.) comes out and says they are having a hard time getting silver and may have to shut down production on a key item if conditions don't improve quickly. Or, if they say something like "We have recently procured a stockpile of $50 million in silver to help take us though these conditions without product interruptions." Then, if a second company (maybe in a different industry) said something similar, silver could have a rally that could be quite memorable.

My 2nd guess on what could turn silver around- let's say that some well-known wealthy person is on national TV and says something about they and a bunch of buddies getting together to corner the silver market (a la the Hunt Bros. in the late 70's and 1980). But this one is different because this group is NOT using margin like the Hunt Bros. did. Also, they are all living outside the U.S. and our government couldn't really confiscate their holdings. Who would have the guts to do this? Just speculating, but here are a few names/investor types that come to mind- A Russian oligarch, perhaps. Maybe someone like Kevin O'Leary or Eric Sprott of Canada. Jim Rogers of Singapore. Julian Robertson, who lives in the U.S. but also has a residence in New Zealand. There are quite a few possibilities.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

In a bit of a squeamish type application, even catheters often have silver coatings on them. I'd rather have a silver coated one made domestically than one made in China that is coated with God knows what...

There are tons of very important uses for silver, no question about it. But there are two big problems that can keep silver down for a long time:

1) Since silver is typically mined as a byproduct of zinc, lead, copper or gold, the cost associated with the silver is often calculated as zero (literally), so miners can and do sell silver at prices way below what you might think it costs them.

2) Silver futures- the futures (paper) market is supposed to be something like 100x the size of the physical market. So if someone wants to short silver in a big way, that is how they can do it, assuming of course they have the resources to do so.

My guess on what could turn silver around- a large manufacturer (think Ford, DowDuPont, an Apple supplier, etc.) comes out and says they are having a hard time getting silver and may have to shut down production on a key item if conditions don't improve quickly. Or, if they say something like "We have recently procured a stockpile of $50 million in silver to help take us though these conditions without product interruptions." Then, if a second company (maybe in a different industry) said something similar, silver could have a rally that could be quite memorable.

My 2nd guess on what could turn silver around- let's say that some well-known wealthy person is on national TV and says something about they and a bunch of buddies getting together to corner the silver market (a la the Hunt Bros. in the late 70's and 1980). But this one is different because this group is NOT using margin like the Hunt Bros. did. Also, they are all living outside the U.S. and our government couldn't really confiscate their holdings. Who would have the guts to do this? Just speculating, but here are a few names/investor types that come to mind- A Russian oligarch, perhaps. Maybe someone like Kevin O'Leary or Eric Sprott of Canada. Jim Rogers of Singapore. Julian Robertson, who lives in the U.S. but also has a residence in New Zealand. There are quite a few possibilities.

All possible, but I feel the main reason Ag will take off will be a lack of confidence in the financial system i.e. a 'run to safety'. This will happen when the USD begins to fail (or is replaced by another currency) and/or another financial crisis, which I believe is right around the corner. Reasons why I believe this are:

- Real inflation is 6-8% a year and wages are not keeping up.
- Job market improving slightly, but these are mostly low wage jobs.
- Interest rates are rising.
- The housing market is in a bubble. The air is starting to come out now, mainly due to price fatigue and rising interest rates.
- The stock market is extremely overvalued. However I believe DOW 27,000 and S&P 3000 will be achieved before it collapses.
- Every millennial I know that has a college degree is loaded up with 50-100K student loan debt.
- Auto loan defaults are increasing.

Prepare accordingly.

[Recyclersteve]

With all due respect, the Dow only has to go another roughly 1% from where it has already been recently to hit 27k. Therefore, 27k is not a bold prediction. Now if you said it will only go up another 1% (and no further) without a big pullback (let's say 10% or more), that would be a very bold call.

In terms of seasonality, the best time of year for the markets normally begins around mid-October (with earnings season). The worst time of the year (August to roughly mid-October) is just about to end. This is per the Stock Trader's Almanac. Obviously, seasonality is just about playing percentages. It doesn't work that way every year.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

With all due respect, the Dow only has to go another roughly 1% from where it has already been recently to hit 27k. Therefore, 27k is not a bold prediction. Now if you said it will only go up another 1% (and no further) without a big pullback (let's say 10% or more), that would be a very bold call.

In terms of seasonality, the best time of year for the markets normally begins around mid-October (with earnings season). The worst time of the year (August to roughly mid-October) is just about to end. This is per the Stock Trader's Almanac. Obviously, seasonality is just about playing percentages. It doesn't work that way every year.

I mentioned 27,000 and 3000 because it's so close to those numbers already, they are inevitable. 1%, 3, or 10%, the market is very overvalued and due for a big correction. A crash is more likely. Seasonality hasn't mattered in a long time. The Fed reserve has injected money into the market since 2009, which has propped everything up... all fake. I predict that 2019 will be THE year... that's my bold prediction.

[Recyclersteve]

But what percent of a pullback are you looking for?

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

But what percent of a pullback are you looking for?

When all is said and done?... 50-70%. I predicted the same thing in 2006 and I was living in SoCal at the time. I told people the housing market was going to be the main cause of the collapse. People I worked with laughed at me... they all had homes and were positively giddy thinking prices would never come down... they acted like they were on drugs. It took 2 years to follow through. More than Lehman and Bear Sterns should've failed, but the Fed came to the rescue. Sec of Treasury Hank Paulson was the ex-Goldman Sachs CEO and still had a fortune invested... talk about a conflict of interest. That guy should've been sent to prison for life.

I believe the Fed is inching up interest rates now, so they have some room to lower the rates when the market dumps. That is what Bernanke did in 2006/07. He was able to delay the crash for a year, but he could not prevent it.

[Treetop]

Im far from an expert in any of this so my opinion is near meaningless but I wouldnt be surprised to see things hum along for many more years. The same type of people I knew a decade ago that were getting crappy adjustable rate mortgages are doing pretty well right now. My understanding of the labor force is we actually have an issue with under qualified people atm, rather then not enough jobs for those still looking. We still have our looming debt and the insanity of the derivatives markets that could probably be triggered and blow up about any time based on my limited understanding but the other factors seem pretty solid to my amateur understanding of these things.

[68Camaro]

Making a timing prediction is always difficult in a free market, but even more so with a market that is clearly being pumped to keep it going, like a sanctioned ponzi scheme. I'm not going to bet against Cu Penny Hoarder - indeed my own self-prediction circa 2012 (which I bravely made to a few friends, and just re-found my word file on that) was that the market would likely blow by 2016-17 but almost certainly by 2020. While 2020 isn't here yet, my main prediction was clearly wrong and was trumped by market pumping and by Trump himself (and I would never have thought that he would be a factor at the time I worked that out, much less that he would galvanize a movement). My prediction date was wrong but I believe the prediction is still relevant, I"m just not sure when. It could be 2019, but maybe it will be delayed by 10-20 years until it no longer matters to me - but it will still matter to my children.

So, I think the larger point is that that market will be tolerable for most people - until it isn't. As I've said before (but not recently) we're living in an unstable market that requires real-time computer controls and active intervention in order to sustain itself, much like most advanced air vehicles are fundamentally aerodynamically unstable without computerized control systems acting on real-time sensor data to allow their control laws to behave.

So the market will crash. A crash is loss of control of an unstable system, and unstable systems go out of control so fast that the event can barely be understood and happen with almost no advance warning (that is distinguishable in the moment - only much later will it become obvious in hindsight) because that's what happens with unstable systems. If concern about metal pricing is because of a need to make money by flipping metal, then as interesting as that can be, you're in the wrong forum. This forum is primarily about storing value in the form of metals (precious or otherwise) for the purpose of sustaining one's family as well as preserving capital for transmission to the other side of a crisis.

[Treetop]

The way I interpret things is if most people have jobs and inflation doesnt get to the hyper level things will probably hum along fine for most people. I honestly thought the wheels were going to fall off long ago. Each president was spending more then all Us history before them. We built up this massive ponzi scheme of an economy in many ways weve all discussed many times. Heck at this point our economy relies in part on over spending and the markets bolstered by this among other things. Obviously this cant last forever. Seems to me though those pulling the strings on it all are rather intelligent and crafty and some of the changes Trump brought about seem to me to have changed a few variables.

As far as a correction I assume its inevitable. Weve had a major run up and tons of people talk of the markets being over valued atm. As far as the real crash I expect to eventually happen, I duno if we stay on a similar track as we are now that might have been pushed off for awhile longer. Who knows how much. Most people who want them have jobs. Wages are creeping up in many fields again. I really dont know but thats how it seems to me.

[everything]

We see this in China, many countries now. Governments are supporting, or should I say financing economic sectors. It's like the last bailouts. We all get something out of it, i.e. low interest rates, jobs, good economic times, we get to borrow and spend like drunken sailors if we want, your credit has been extended, and your credit score just went up, etc.

People are now spending like debt doesn't matter, I think they know something. They saw debt forgiveness, they are spending and waiting. They know the consumer drives this economy. Bankruptcy is an option, some people I know who declared bankruptcy once, they have it all again, and even more, see how this works. They know their is no debtor prison, they got away with it once, they'll get away with it again. I was helping an old gfriend settle some collection stuff, you know what?, she never paid it off, years later they were calling me up, asking me where she's at. They can't take her car, she doesn't own it, the bank does, as long as she makes the payment she can drive it. She doesn't have anything, she doesn't need anything, she knows how lol, to manipulate and lie to people in order to get what she needs for now. Tomorrow is another day, live for the moment.

Some of us just live within our means because we were brought up that way. It's not all a scam, but allot of it is.

[68Camaro]

Yep treetop - a correction (which is normal after a run up) isn't necessarily the big crash.

And everything - the behavior of your former gf may define a new paradigm of characteristics that is what causes the markets to ultimately fail. When enough of the population just presumes that debt no longer matters - can be run up to infinite levels without needing to pay it back, with no accountability and the government covers for them - then truly what do we have left? I was so pissed at the attitude of tens of millions in the 2008 crisis who just walked away from their debt. I started then to fear that we had become unrecognizable to our forefathers. That may have just been the start of it.

[everything]

Certainly. When everyone is maxed out, banks could pull back anytime. But why would they?, they are banking interest bonuses, flush with borrowing power, golden parachutes set, and they got bailed out last time, they know it's a free ride now. As long as equities are growing more than the cost to borrow that money which is a pittance, this bull run will go on for many more years. Large investors and parabolic government spending driving it, they have the connections, well .. greed is driving it but that's just the way it goes. Is it borderline corruption, more or less. Is it foolish, sure, but it's the way our economies roll now. Booms and busts, and throw away society. As long as your not exposed to market forces when the music stops your fine. And, all the debtors will be rewarded anyway, inflation will eat up some of the balance, and rates will be zero again, maybe even less than zero, the banks would rather refinance you at a super low rate than have the debt written off. It's really great if you know how to play it. And, hedging is so in these days, look at the central banks, they have gold buying policies like we have never seen before, they know how this will play out, probably like it always has. Spend until you can't, create new financial instruments to spend again, etc. rinse / repeat.

[Recyclersteve]

Yep treetop - a correction (which is normal after a run up) isn't necessarily the big crash.

And everything - the behavior of your former gf may define a new paradigm of characteristics that is what causes the markets to ultimately fail. When enough of the population just presumes that debt no longer matters - can be run up to infinite levels without needing to pay it back, with no accountability and the government covers for them - then truly what do we have left? I was so pissed at the attitude of tens of millions in the 2008 crisis who just walked away from their debt. I started then to fear that we had become unrecognizable to our forefathers. That may have just been the start of it.

Along the same lines- I have a friend who had a beautiful condo on the beach in Florida (the place looked like he had a team of interior design experts work on it). We visited him in January, 2009, right in the middle of the market turmoil. He confided in me that he stopped paying his mortgage a full year earlier, and still had not been evicted!

Even though he is a good friend, I just don't agree with him on everything. I don't like walking away from commitments. And I don't like handouts. That's just me.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

See below

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Certainly. When everyone is maxed out, banks could pull back anytime. But why would they?, they are banking interest bonuses, flush with borrowing power, golden parachutes set, and they got bailed out last time, they know it's a free ride now. As long as equities are growing more than the cost to borrow that money which is a pittance, this bull run will go on for many more years. Large investors and parabolic government spending driving it, they have the connections, well .. greed is driving it but that's just the way it goes. Is it borderline corruption, more or less. Is it foolish, sure, but it's the way our economies roll now. Booms and busts, and throw away society. As long as your not exposed to market forces when the music stops your fine. And, all the debtors will be rewarded anyway, inflation will eat up some of the balance, and rates will be zero again, maybe even less than zero, the banks would rather refinance you at a super low rate than have the debt written off. It's really great if you know how to play it. And, hedging is so in these days, look at the central banks, they have gold buying policies like we have never seen before, they know how this will play out, probably like it always has. Spend until you can't, create new financial instruments to spend again, etc. rinse / repeat.

This is basically the same mentality people had in the mid-late 20's, during the dot.com bubble and the sub-prime housing bubble. It's "never different this time". A collapse MUST happen sooner or later. When it will happen is difficult to predict.

It's not borderline corruption... it's blatant corruption. The majority of politicians, SEC and law enforcement agencies are paid to ignore it.

[68Camaro]

On the related topic of changes in the culture, here is a blog post on those issues and the effects:

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/20 ... dence.html

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

[
All possible, but I feel the main reason Ag will take off will be a lack of confidence in the financial system i.e. a 'run to safety'. This will happen when the USD begins to fail (or is replaced by another currency) and/or another financial crisis, which I believe is right around the corner. Reasons why I believe this are:

- Real inflation is 6-8% a year and wages are not keeping up.
- Job market improving slightly, but these are mostly low wage jobs.
- Interest rates are rising.
- The housing market is in a bubble. The air is starting to come out now, mainly due to price fatigue and rising interest rates.
- The stock market is extremely overvalued. However I believe DOW 27,000 and S&P 3000 will be achieved before it collapses.
- Every millennial I know that has a college degree is loaded up with 50-100K student loan debt.
- Auto loan defaults are increasing.

Prepare accordingly.

Interesting 2 days. Dow down -831 yesterday and -545 today. Is this the start of the BIG one or is it just a correction? Only time will tell.

[Recyclersteve]

[
All possible, but I feel the main reason Ag will take off will be a lack of confidence in the financial system i.e. a 'run to safety'. This will happen when the USD begins to fail (or is replaced by another currency) and/or another financial crisis, which I believe is right around the corner. Reasons why I believe this are:

- Real inflation is 6-8% a year and wages are not keeping up.
- Job market improving slightly, but these are mostly low wage jobs.
- Interest rates are rising.
- The housing market is in a bubble. The air is starting to come out now, mainly due to price fatigue and rising interest rates.
- The stock market is extremely overvalued. However I believe DOW 27,000 and S&P 3000 will be achieved before it collapses.
- Every millennial I know that has a college degree is loaded up with 50-100K student loan debt.
- Auto loan defaults are increasing.

Prepare accordingly.

Interesting 2 days. Dow down -831 yesterday and -545 today. Is this the start of the BIG one or is it just a correction? Only time will tell.

Of course nobody knows for sure, but I personally think it is just a pullback. Whether you believe the numbers or not, the economy is doing too well for people to really panic IMHO. I hesitate to use the term correction because we haven't gone down 10% as yet.

[pmbug]

A month ago, the BIS put out a report warning that the US dollar makes up at least 80% of all the letters of credit outstanding, which are the means of settlement of international trade contracts. [*]

Recently, the BIS has warned about the both the record number of zombie firms and the more dire straights zombie firms face. [*]

The Fed has indicated that it wants to continue raising interest rates. This will exacerbate problems for bond markets all over.

The USA wants to force the issue with sanctions on Iran. Venezuela (and their oil production) is going down the toilet. The price of oil is forecasted to rise. Rising oil prices are not good for the US economy or equity (stock) markets.

Italy might become Greece 2.0 - only 10 times larger in size.[*] It's a huge problem for the EU. At the same time, Brexit negotiations aren't coming together and the odds for a "hard Brexit" are rising which would likely lead to short term interruptions in trade between the UK and the EU. [*] Europe has some serious headwinds to navigate.

Is it any wonder, really, that central banks are now buying gold at levels not seen in many years? [*]

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Of course nobody knows for sure, but I personally think it is just a pullback. Whether you believe the numbers or not, the economy is doing too well for people to really panic IMHO. I hesitate to use the term correction because we haven't gone down 10% as yet.

A Friday relief rally looks to be in play. The PPT did a good job ramming up the AH/overnight futures market. Will it hold into the close?

Government numbers are manipulated to make things look better than they really are. They conveniently leave out the cost of food, energy and tuition when calculating inflation. Also, the unemployment numbers are a joke. I guess if you lie over and over again, people start to believe it.

[Recyclersteve]

Government numbers are manipulated to make things look better than they really are. They conveniently leave out the cost of food, energy and tuition when calculating inflation. Also, the unemployment numbers are a joke. I guess if you lie over and over again, people start to believe it.

Totally agree with this. I heard an interview with a former Fed employee where he said the official inflation figures used to also include the cost of gold and children's toys. Both of those, too, were conveniently taken out.

Unemployment numbers don't say a thing about UNDERemployment. For instance, a heavily-indebted college grad with lots of college loans to pay off who is working at McDonalds. Also, it doesn't count someone employed as a real estate agent who only sold 1 home last year.

Even income figures are misleading. For instance, someone who is retired has to (not always but often) count money taken out of their own retirement accounts as income. Yes, you are taking your own money saved over the years and being forced to count it as income and pay taxes on it.

Now if they had a separate line item on a Form 1040 saying "Money Found at Coinstar Machines", that would really be a sad state of affairs.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

DOW -327

S&P -40


Burn it down!