Realcent.org

As goes the dollar north, so goes the price of silver south. I don't make such statements without due diligence. Pull up a historical graph of both the dollar and silver. You will see that at those times when the dollar has strengthened, the price of silver (and other pms) has reduced. Do not despair and keep yer' powder dry. There's a fire sale approachin'.

dan53 wrote:As goes the dollar north, so goes the price of silver south. I don't make such statements without due diligence. Pull up a historical graph of both the dollar and silver. You will see that at those times when the dollar has strengthened, the price of silver (and other pms) has reduced. Do not despair and keep yer' powder dry. There's a fire sale approachin'.

I'm sorry, but you need to read up (in depth) the degree to which the markets are being purposely suppressed. There is a near vertical drop in London this morning. A six cent rise in the dollar does not account for a ninety cent fall in the price of silver. There is much more afoot here than the cause for which you attribute the pullback. That merely provides rationalization to some for the recent weakness... but the sell-off is hugely out of proportion to the percentage gain of the strengthening dollar. I won't dispute that it has some effect... if you were to pull out the specific waterfall patterns from the ongoing silver chart you would have greater accuracy, tho. You are correct in that this provides a buying opportunity for those who have a long term horizon.

21 was my ceiling. havent bought in a while. its nice to accumulate some more silver. got some uncirculated 64 halves this morning. ill continue as long as it stays below 30$

I agree with both dan53 and beauanderos. General trends of most commodities are inverse to the value of the currency. Market manipulation by both major players and governments (most via their central banks) can keep many commodities artificially low. Long term trends and outlooks by many of us on this forum are bullish on commodities and bearish on most currencies. The pros can explain it better than I. Lets just say that a buying opportunity may be upon us.

Well this is what everyone wanted (a strong dollar). Right?

2011 black swan

Jonflyfish wrote:2011 black swan

you may be right about that jon...

my question is how high can "they" let the dollar go ?

where is the point where a strong dollar is actually destructive ?

what steps can be expected to hold the dollar down ?

aloneibreak wrote:

Jonflyfish wrote:2011 black swan

you may be right about that jon...

my question is how high can "they" let the dollar go ?

where is the point where a strong dollar is actually destructive ?

what steps can be expected to hold the dollar down ?

Was something mentioned as a likely possibility several months ago. As it is there is a shortage of USD meeting heavy demand, requiring central banks to create USD facilities.
I know that might sound hard for people here to accept but excess reserves being created on a whim to support balance sheets for banks with the fed is not the same as the base money supply.
USD's are being hoarded!
With the Euro debacle, the idea of an alternate reserve currency just doesn't exist. With US equities outperforming all others you can see why treasuries are so strong from the carry. I would imagine Japan and the yen could be a major attention getter for 2012. The yen is too strong for the BOJ. They have openly disclosed intervention to fend off the strength. I can only imagine that this further strengthens the USD, perhaps even as early as the last two weeks of this year. A USD/JPY <80 is quite amazing. I would not be surprised to see a major climb in the direction of 100 on the horizon.

Cheers!

Beuanderos wrote:

"I'm sorry, but you need to read up (in depth) the degree to which the markets are being purposely suppressed."


No thanks. That would be extremely boring.

was just saying how smart some of these guys r & how when it goes over my head i just go with my gut.

what steps can be expected to hold the dollar down ?[/quote]


Simple, just reelect Obama. He thinks we Americans are all overpaid so if we could just get our wages and lifestyles down to that of the Mexicans and the Chinese people then we could not only save what's left of our jobs but also get our exports rolling and get all of "his people" back to work, even if it for $3.59 per hour + an extra bag of rice for working 4000 hours per year!

Is the dollar going up or are the currencies against which the dollar is measured going down? I think that is the case. Run from the euro to the dollar as the last ditch effort to protect your money.

Hi dan53. In regards to reading in-depth about the machinations of whats going on monetarily in the world especially as it pertains to the dollar, I will have to disagree with you when you say it would be boring. Not only is it fascinating and a bit scary, it prevents you from becoming a sheep. Too many people turn their heads because understanding this stuff seems boring (how?). Read the realcent threads - ALL of them and you will learn and not be bored. By being on this forum, you are already ahead of the game my friend.

To all, happy new year. Keep stacking and don't be a sheep - sheep get slaughtered.

beauanderos wrote:

dan53 wrote:As goes the dollar north, so goes the price of silver south. I don't make such statements without due diligence. Pull up a historical graph of both the dollar and silver. You will see that at those times when the dollar has strengthened, the price of silver (and other pms) has reduced. Do not despair and keep yer' powder dry. There's a fire sale approachin'.

I'm sorry, but you need to read up (in depth) the degree to which the markets are being purposely suppressed. There is a near vertical drop in London this morning. A six cent rise in the dollar does not account for a ninety cent fall in the price of silver. There is much more afoot here than the cause for which you attribute the pullback. That merely provides rationalization to some for the recent weakness... but the sell-off is hugely out of proportion to the percentage gain of the strengthening dollar. I won't dispute that it has some effect... if you were to pull out the specific waterfall patterns from the ongoing silver chart you would have greater accuracy, tho. You are correct in that this provides a buying opportunity for those who have a long term horizon.

Rereading my earlier comment, I see that clarification is needed. My post was a bit harsh. I just meant to say, that generally, what Dan brings up is correct, but one could be led into a pitfall if they reason without further examination that the correlation brought up is pure and simple. Yes, this effect does exist, and yet the rise of the dollar can be engineered in similar fashion to the suppression of the metals, when one has an unlimited source of virtual dollars to bankroll the schemes, and the will of govt's and support of central banks to see it implemented. I don't claim to understand it all myself, but there are some brilliant minds who delve into this subject, and what they speculate is occuring can be fascinating. Since my retirement is riding on the outcome, I don't personally find it it boring to spend the hours necessary to keep up, but I can certainly see how anyone with a longer term horizon than mine (ten to thirty years as opposed to me in Geezerville) might see such short term fluctuations as dull reading. It can be, but I liken it to standing behind the players at a high-stakes blackjack table, to study their hits and learn to benefit from their strategies. When you know what cards will likely be dealt from the shoe, it greatly enhances your chances of a better hand yourself.

Ok. Perhaps boring was the wrong word. Gaining knowledge is always useful. I suppose one reason for intentionally suppressing any investment item in the market would be in an attempt to make a short sale. Beauanderos, instead of sending me on a fact finding mission, why don't you just tell us about the methods being used to suppress the market?

What little knowledge I have gained regarding pm prices has come from observation. When the pm price goes up or down significantly, I try to look around to see what else is going on at the time. Besides the dollar another pm influence is the price of oil. As oil goes up, usually but not always, so to does the price of pms rise. Why? I believe its a result of the uncertainty that rising oil prices generates. The Iran business is driving the price of oil and providing the uncertainty that enhances the attractiveness of tangible pm assets.

Its doubtful, but should I have any economic epiphanies, there will be more to follow.

Dan

dan53 wrote:Ok. Perhaps boring was the wrong word. Gaining knowledge is always useful. I suppose one reason for intentionally suppressing any investment item in the market would be in an attempt to make a short sale. Beauanderos, instead of sending me on a fact finding mission, why don't you just tell us about the methods being used to suppress the market?

What little knowledge I have gained regarding pm prices has come from observation. When the pm price goes up or down significantly, I try to look around to see what else is going on at the time. Besides the dollar another pm influence is the price of oil. As oil goes up, usually but not always, so to does the price of pms rise. Why? I believe its a result of the uncertainty that rising oil prices generates. The Iran business is driving the price of oil and providing the uncertainty that enhances the attractiveness of tangible pm assets.

Its doubtful, but should I have any economic epiphanies, there will be more to follow.

Dan

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not nearly smart enough to tell others the methods used to suppress the markets (other than speculating on theories). BUT... I know who to point you towards. Google Jeffrey Nielsen, Rob Kirby, Ted Butler. There's many others... Ed Steer of Casey Research is good. Basically, though, flooding the markets with sell orders during thin overnight trading sessions is not something that someone who was attempting to profit by their positions would do... unless the profit were to be made by driving the price down after selling short and then filling their shorts after stop-loss limits were triggered and the price had been driven as low as they felt they could reasonably expect to drive it. This type of selling is not what would be expected from longs liquidating (even under duress)... thus the suspicion that JPMorgan and HSBC are manipulating the precious metals markets. Given that one of them is the custodian for SLV, this alone would seem to indicate a conflict of interest. Jeff Nielsen can be read at BullionBullsCanada.com, Kirby posts on FinancialSense.com frequently (believe it or not, I had a column there for three months back in 2009). Butler can be on the dry side, and I can't interpret all the COT numbers he's always reviewing that lead to his conclusions, but he is the "go to" conspiracy pro.

I also enjoy reading Patrick Heller, who although he is "only" a coin dealer, appears to have a firm grasp of the operative details pertaining to pricing persuasion and its ramifications for the metals markets. He is frequently linked from coinflation.com.