Realcent.org

At this moment silver is below 32 and gold is below 1650. So. . .is this a buying opportunity or a portent of lower prices to come?

The economy is in limbo right now being held up by artificial Fed interest rates and government hand-outs. Most Westerners view gold and silver as risk assets, not the way we and many Easterners do as sound money, so they get sold or at least not heavily bought during uncertain times. I say $32 is good from a long-term fundamentals standpoint so there is not much to gain by trying to time the bottom. Even if it takes years to get back to the 40s you'll be glad you bought because the alternative is to get one percent interest on a CD which is trivial in my opinion.

I gotta say though, I shouldn't be surprised but it is astonishing just how uneducated the American public is when it comes to real money...

I stopped by local coin shop and picked up a few coins. Someone keeps selling the store owner 90% half dollars, so came away with several shiny 64 Kennedys.

Anyway, silver is holding 32 for now and gold 1650. So I suppose that is good short-term indicator. However, it is true that whether I buy silver at 32, 34 or 36 matters little in the long-run. Also, although higher silver prices make it more costly to accumulate silver, lower prices can also be a problem as physical bullion dries up in a hurry.

theo wrote:Also, although higher silver prices make it more costly to accumulate silver, lower prices can also be a problem as physical bullion dries up in a hurry.

I've seen this said numerous times, but I've yet to see it. I go to Tulving whenever silver is way down and they claim to still have several hundred thousand ounces.

I think EXTREMELY-small shops may be out of silver, but there is more than enough around at all the major retailers and most sellers here 24/7

The "silver has dried up" is just a myth that is easily busted.

So where does one see exactly how much Tulving actually has in physical stock? I don't see it.

Used to say on top of their Front page and their inventory pages their amount.

Under their Silver selection it says 250,000 or 500,000 ounces once in a while

For such a poorly designed site (Tulving.com) they sure change it a lot They don't seem to have their ounces on hand listed but they definitely indicate "hundreds of 1k bags on hand" and a few other large-number indicators.

They used to list their amount on hand in round numbers.


Regardless: Physical silver does not dry up. The quantity available for purposes of those on this forum is always *infinite*.

If someone out there takes delivery of more than 1 million ounces per month let me know and I'll revise the above statement.

Lower prices coming... when:

1. Margins are raised.
2. They decide to dump more millions of paper ounces that do not really exist.
3. The stock market drops/crashes.

Cost average in and buy on dips, but keep lots of powder dry to buy even lower. That's what I do. Never buy when prices are rising or making new highs.

I'll state it again for you "sky is falling, silver is now no better than copper" types:

We will never see $25.00 again. Ever.

Oh, and I am, like many here, putting my money where my mouth is on the price of silver not dropping too much more

barrytrot wrote:I'll state it again for you "sky is falling, silver is now no better than copper" types:

We will never see $25.00 again. Ever.

I don't care where it goes, I buy on dips. I've been accumulating since 1985.

That part about it never going to $25 ever again is a very bold statement. I'm a PM bug, but I would never make such a statement. TPTB are not going to give up so easily.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

barrytrot wrote:I'll state it again for you "sky is falling, silver is now no better than copper" types:

We will never see $25.00 again. Ever.

I don't care where it goes, I buy on dips. I've been accumulating since 1985.

That part about it never going to $25 ever again is a very bold statement. I'm a PM bug, but I would never make such a statement. TPTB are not going to give up so easily.

I've said it, in writing here on 4 occasions (If memory serves) and I stand by it.

I'm not predicting where it goes, but I am holding you to this.

If it hits $25, you'll be hearing from me.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:I'm not predicting where it goes, but I am holding you to this.

If it hits $25, you'll be hearing from me.

Gladly.

barrytrot wrote:

theo wrote:Also, although higher silver prices make it more costly to accumulate silver, lower prices can also be a problem as physical bullion dries up in a hurry.

I've seen this said numerous times, but I've yet to see it. I go to Tulving whenever silver is way down and they claim to still have several hundred thousand ounces.

I think EXTREMELY-small shops may be out of silver, but there is more than enough around at all the major retailers and most sellers here 24/7

The "silver has dried up" is just a myth that is easily busted.

Most coins shop are small and can be cleaned out of silver with less than $10,000. After a sudden price drop they will either: A. Increase their premiums, B get bought out or C. Pull back some of their inventory for when prices go up again. I've personally seen all three. The supply seems to decrease on Ebay as well. As for major retailers small amounts are available at the lower price, but I've heard several accounts of larger orders being delayed up to several weeks. Given that the paper prices often do not reflect actual physical demand, supply shortages can affect even the largest retailers.

Robarons wrote:Used to say on top of their Front page and their inventory pages their amount.

Under their Silver selection it says 250,000 or 500,000 ounces once in a while

I wonder if that number is subject to an audit.

theo wrote:Most coins shop are small and can be cleaned out of silver with less than $10,000. After a sudden price drop they will either: A. Increase their premiums, B get bought out or C. Pull back some of their inventory for when prices go up again. I've personally seen all three. The supply seems to decrease on Ebay as well. As for major retailers small amounts are available at the lower price, but I've heard several accounts of larger orders being delayed up to several weeks. Given that the paper prices often do not reflect actual physical demand, supply shortages can affect even the largest retailers.

Then buy online. Why do you need a local shop when you can buy cheaper online? And, I've bought during many-a-dip and never had a problem and were I to have 100 times as much money to spend I could still have filled-my-hands with all I desired.

And ebay definitely does NOT dry up in the slightest. Going from 10,000 sales per day to 5,000 is still *infinite* with respect to the needs of this forum. Plus that is totally anecdotal and is untrue from my own anecdotal experience.

barrytrot wrote:

theo wrote:Most coins shop are small and can be cleaned out of silver with less than $10,000. After a sudden price drop they will either: A. Increase their premiums, B get bought out or C. Pull back some of their inventory for when prices go up again. I've personally seen all three. The supply seems to decrease on Ebay as well. As for major retailers small amounts are available at the lower price, but I've heard several accounts of larger orders being delayed up to several weeks. Given that the paper prices often do not reflect actual physical demand, supply shortages can affect even the largest retailers.

Then buy online. Why do you need a local shop when you can buy cheaper online? And, I've bought during many-a-dip and never had a problem and were I to have 100 times as much money to spend I could still have filled-my-hands with all I desired.

And ebay definitely does NOT dry up in the slightest. Going from 10,000 sales per day to 5,000 is still *infinite* with respect to the needs of this forum. Plus that is totally anecdotal and is untrue from my own anecdotal experience.

In terms of Ebay if a decreasing number auctions is meant with a constant or increasing demand, prices are bid higher. This adds a "market premium" to the price of the bullion. So yes, coins can be had on Ebay, but very often not at the reduced spot price. I'm not saying that silver is totally unavailable at the lower spot price, but you do have to work a little harder to find it. This because (IMHO) the spot price silver is manipulated and when the paper spot price of silver is forced down by the concentrated shorts it decouples from the physical market. This in turn causes a supply/demand imbalance which could manifest itself in physical shortages and delivery delays.

Also, for the record, Barry, I believe you will be proven right on your $25 silver prediction. Although it is likely that silver may test that level once or twice before moving higher.

I think we will see still lower silver prices though it is slightly up early this morning. If silver goes very low down into the twenties your choices could be limited. 100 ounce bars, 90% or even silver shot!

theo wrote:In terms of Ebay if a decreasing number auctions is meant with a constant or increasing demand, prices are bid higher. This adds a "market premium" to the price of the bullion. So yes, coins can be had on Ebay, but very often not at the reduced spot price. I'm not saying that silver is totally unavailable at the lower spot price, but you do have to work a little harder to find it. This because (IMHO) the spot price silver is manipulated and when the paper spot price of silver is forced down by the concentrated shorts it decouples from the physical market. This in turn causes a supply/demand imbalance which could manifest itself in physical shortages and delivery delays.

I will agree with the "you have to work a little harder statement". And I'll agree that it is often short term manipulation. I disagree with the decoupling of the physical and paper markets because regardless of what spot is the sellers and buyers have the spot price in their minds when selling and buying. True the premiums may rise incrementally from time to time, but the paper and the physical will always remain coupled as they have in the past. And I've bought and sold a lot so I can speak from experience on that.

barrytrot wrote:

theo wrote:Also, although higher silver prices make it more costly to accumulate silver, lower prices can also be a problem as physical bullion dries up in a hurry.

I've seen this said numerous times, but I've yet to see it. I go to Tulving whenever silver is way down and they claim to still have several hundred thousand ounces.

I think EXTREMELY-small shops may be out of silver, but there is more than enough around at all the major retailers and most sellers here 24/7

The "silver has dried up" is just a myth that is easily busted.

Yes, but your selection may be limited and premium markup usually climb. During the last crash of silver you could get plenty of 100 ounce bars or even 1000 ounce bars......if you could afford 500 ounce minimums.

barrytrot wrote:

theo wrote:In terms of Ebay if a decreasing number auctions is meant with a constant or increasing demand, prices are bid higher. This adds a "market premium" to the price of the bullion. So yes, coins can be had on Ebay, but very often not at the reduced spot price. I'm not saying that silver is totally unavailable at the lower spot price, but you do have to work a little harder to find it. This because (IMHO) the spot price silver is manipulated and when the paper spot price of silver is forced down by the concentrated shorts it decouples from the physical market. This in turn causes a supply/demand imbalance which could manifest itself in physical shortages and delivery delays.

I will agree with the "you have to work a little harder statement". And I'll agree that it is often short term manipulation. I disagree with the decoupling of the physical and paper markets because regardless of what spot is the sellers and buyers have the spot price in their minds when selling and buying. True the premiums may rise incrementally from time to time, but the paper and the physical will always remain coupled as they have in the past. And I've bought and sold a lot so I can speak from experience on that.

Markets change. There is no such thing as infinite or always in commodities. People used to be just as certain that housing always went up. People comprise markets, and pricing is, in part, based upon their perceptions. If they are confident that price must rise because of out of control money printing, then regardless of spot, if they want the certitude of security that owning safe haven metals represents... they will place the winning bid, regardless of cost. I am not saying that ebay sets the physical price, but the price paid by some bidders, who in hindsight might be declared foolish or geniuses, will escalate should they desire to obtain popular items at all cost. Their is no room in silver for BIG money. If a thousand people with a hundred dollars to spend each all want to start dollar cost averaging into silver, or even a thousand people with a thousand each, perhaps the present pricing structure could sustain that amount of demand. But if ten individuals, with a million to spend per month, shift their interested from gold, the price would rocket. There are players who can EASILY purchase Tulving outright, and not even put a dent in their budget.

beauanderos wrote:

barrytrot wrote:

theo wrote:In terms of Ebay if a decreasing number auctions is meant with a constant or increasing demand, prices are bid higher. This adds a "market premium" to the price of the bullion. So yes, coins can be had on Ebay, but very often not at the reduced spot price. I'm not saying that silver is totally unavailable at the lower spot price, but you do have to work a little harder to find it. This because (IMHO) the spot price silver is manipulated and when the paper spot price of silver is forced down by the concentrated shorts it decouples from the physical market. This in turn causes a supply/demand imbalance which could manifest itself in physical shortages and delivery delays.

I will agree with the "you have to work a little harder statement". And I'll agree that it is often short term manipulation. I disagree with the decoupling of the physical and paper markets because regardless of what spot is the sellers and buyers have the spot price in their minds when selling and buying. True the premiums may rise incrementally from time to time, but the paper and the physical will always remain coupled as they have in the past. And I've bought and sold a lot so I can speak from experience on that.

Markets change. There is no such thing as infinite or always in commodities. People used to be just as certain that housing always went up. People comprise markets, and pricing is, in part, based upon their perceptions. If they are confident that price must rise because of out of control money printing, then regardless of spot, if they want the certitude of security that owning safe haven metals represents... they will place the winning bid, regardless of cost. I am not saying that ebay sets the physical price, but the price paid by some bidders, who in hindsight might be declared foolish or geniuses, will escalate should they desire to obtain popular items at all cost. Their is no room in silver for BIG money. If a thousand people with a hundred dollars to spend each all want to start dollar cost averaging into silver, or even a thousand people with a thousand each, perhaps the present pricing structure could sustain that amount of demand. But if ten individuals, with a million to spend per month, shift their interested from gold, the price would rocket. There are players who can EASILY purchase Tulving outright, and not even put a dent in their budget.

I am saying *infinite* as it relates to the combined needs of this forum. As I indicated earlier.

Everything I said was in relation to this forum's needs, period. I even asked if anyone had the ability to buy a million ounces. No takers yet

Obviously if the government of China felt like divesting the world of ANYTHING they could do so.

But *for this forum* all commodities should be considered infinite until China does that.