Realcent.org

A while back,there was some articles I read online about how the price for physical silver will at some point break from the spot price which is suppressed by big bank shinnanigans on the COMEX. I can buy at spot at my local coin shop any time,but I notice on completed auctions on ebay,people are consistently paying over spot for junk silver. Are we seeing this predicted "disconnect" or is this just uninformed buyers,or people who must not have local coin shops or pawn shops that will sell at the spot price?

At this point it is mostly just ill-informed buyers. But it was only 4 years ago that people were paying crazy prices for junk silver, and it will happen again, and with all silver.

To clarify, when I say "over spot", I mean way over spot - 20, 40, 60%. I've personally, recently, paid slightly over spot (a couple percent) for AU/BU coins of full weight, as they are increasingly harder to find.

The separation of spot price from physical market price.

The physical price IS the market price. The spot price is for paper.

natsb88 wrote:

The separation of spot price from physical market price.

The physical price IS the market price. The spot price is for paper.

I'm sympathetic to that, and have said that. But have to agree with others that have said that as lomg as you can actually purchase 1000 oz bars at spot plus small fee (and you can) then spot is effectively that physical price. Coin prices will be some higher than that for natural reasons.

Due to all the discounts, ebay bucks, incentive programs etc, Ebay is NOT a good market indicator for establishing price in my opinion.

For example back when they had the 20 and 30% off offers going, people were going nutz and bidding up to 20 and 30% higher because of it. You can't tell between who is using those programs and someone who doesn't undertand and is caught up in "the fever" bidding the same amount in straight cash.

Therefore you can't tell what someone is "really" willing to pay (the true market value) vs (true market value) + (incentives).

Thats why I dont trust em for a market indicator on price. Volume seems to be good idea though

Kurr wrote:Due to all the discounts, ebay bucks, incentive programs etc, Ebay is NOT a good market indicator for establishing price in my opinion.

For example back when they had the 20 and 30% off offers going, people were going nutz and bidding up to 20 and 30% higher because of it. You can't tell between who is using those programs and someone who doesn't undertand and is caught up in "the fever" bidding the same amount in straight cash.

Therefore you can't tell what someone is "really" willing to pay (the true market value) vs (true market value) + (incentives).

Thats why I dont trust em for a market indicator on price. Volume seems to be good idea though

I agree. Just because an auction is completed doesn't necessarily mean that the transaction went through.

I believe some of the prices on eBay are manipulated a bit by other sellers trying to inflate prices. I tried selling some rolls of 1964 halves on there a few months ago that went for near spot and the bidder never paid. Relisted them and the same thing happened. It would be interesting to hear from the experience of those that sell more frequently if this is a freak incident or a regular one.

I would say on that end lurker, it would work like this:

Buyer wins, hesitates on paying... if spot goes up he pays ... If spot goes down he cancels.

Buyer pays, you ship ... If spot goes up he sells for profit and looks for next ebay deal ... If spot goes down he files a complaint, ships it back (sometime ships a rock back with a tracking number) gets a refund, looks for the next ebay deal.


Just a guess on general human nature today.

Kurr wrote:Due to all the discounts, ebay bucks, incentive programs etc, Ebay is NOT a good market indicator for establishing price in my opinion.

For example back when they had the 20 and 30% off offers going, people were going nutz and bidding up to 20 and 30% higher because of it. You can't tell between who is using those programs and someone who doesn't undertand and is caught up in "the fever" bidding the same amount in straight cash.

Therefore you can't tell what someone is "really" willing to pay (the true market value) vs (true market value) + (incentives).

Thats why I dont trust em for a market indicator on price. Volume seems to be good idea though

I know about the incentive programs that they had awhile back, but do you know of any going right now? Also, does anyone know of any rebate sites (like Mr. Rebates) that ebay is still working with. The only thing I am aware of is 2% ebay bucks.

Kurr wrote:Due to all the discounts, ebay bucks, incentive programs etc, Ebay is NOT a good market indicator for establishing price in my opinion.

For example back when they had the 20 and 30% off offers going, people were going nutz and bidding up to 20 and 30% higher because of it. You can't tell between who is using those programs and someone who doesn't undertand and is caught up in "the fever" bidding the same amount in straight cash.

Therefore you can't tell what someone is "really" willing to pay (the true market value) vs (true market value) + (incentives).

Thats why I dont trust em for a market indicator on price. Volume seems to be good idea though

AHHHH the good ol'days . . . Back in '08 when MS Cash Back (later BING) was at 30 & 35% I was working with a seller buying 2 rolls of ASEs at a time for $570. ($200 max rebate per purchase). So I was getting ASEs for about spot of $9.25. Bought several hundred like that. At that time max rebates per year per acct was $1200. Started several new e-Bay accts as a work-around. Sure wish someone would start something like that again . . .

HH

Coppercrazy wrote:A while back,there was some articles I read online about how the price for physical silver will at some point break from the spot price which is suppressed by big bank shinnanigans on the COMEX. I can buy at spot at my local coin shop any time,but I notice on completed auctions on ebay,people are consistently paying over spot for junk silver. Are we seeing this predicted "disconnect" or is this just uninformed buyers,or people who must not have local coin shops or pawn shops that will sell at the spot price?

yes.

Hey Neil - welcome back!

68Camaro wrote:At this point it is mostly just ill-informed buyers. But it was only 4 years ago that people were paying crazy prices for junk silver, and it will happen again, and with all silver.

due respect, ill-informed or informed, they are buyers, and they are buying. i've seen mulitple thousand starred ebay PM buyers paying premiums. As i said before, the premium over the board will stretch, and it has, and will continue to widen.

when the gameplayers, aint not go more game, silver is going to $130, first stop, even at 30 times face, and $5-9 premium, we will still have a window, buts it;s closing.

68Camaro wrote:Hey Neil - welcome back!

HEY 68!!
wasnt trying to fuss and argue, but i been watching, like a hawk, and i'm seeing strong hand buying........how you son? thanks for the welcome, your bud, neil

Great to see you back Neil!

Saabman wrote:Great to see you back Neil!

Thank you Saab, thats makes me feel good, heartening to be welcomed....too bad we couldnt get together a bonfire, a bottle of 120 vicks, and a fifth of Mt Gay white barbados rum to wrash em down with....thats a PM stacker party...check your weps at the wood splitter, dont need no accidents when we get goofy, right?

neilgin1 wrote:

68Camaro wrote:Hey Neil - welcome back!

HEY 68!!
wasnt trying to fuss and argue, but i been watching, like a hawk, and i'm seeing strong hand buying........how you son? thanks for the welcome, your bud, neil

Good, thanks I'm feeling like there is a growing sense of concern by the paper players as to how long they can keep the lid on this. But I'll know that true separation is occurring when 1000 oz bars can't be had for spot.

68. aint it funny how the news just gets more bizarre and weird by the day?...and denial of reality gets more brittle and sharp.