Realcent.org

i been pondering this now for about 8 months, how long can tptb hold this thing together with duct tape and bailing wire?

i think we all read the same non-MSM news, for instance zerohedge...other sites, shadowstats, etc.

One can see the carwreck of Europe, we're not stupid, BLS says unemployment's at 8.3...or 8.2, when its really 20%.
what i'm getting at is this, we see the whole macro picture, and you just know, that you know, things aint right.

so how long, before the wheels come off?

Sometimes, one can get this feeling, its "next week"...then other times, i get a feeling, they can pull moves to keep this charade going until the 2015-18 time frame...who knows.

i just thru reading past threads and i see the little antedotes, about folks just get stupid desperate, pulling strokes like shaving pennies, or looting hundreds of pounds of clad coins. i read about how my friend Raymundo got "DK'ed" by some unwholesome "trader".

i listen to "leaders" speaking, can see thru their lies, and i've noticed something rather strange. i follow all commodities, the prices, i follow agriculture stats, seen how the baltic dry index has collapsed...one thing i noticed is this, SINCE MFGLOBAL, every single physical commodity is in tight range, which includes our silver.

i know the board is sad farce, its kind of like what i thought 6 months ago, that the premium would get stretched to the upside, physical versus futures...and it has. i have guys that tell me, "listen, $7 over spot is a bargain"...and i see the chart in a band with a slight downward bias. But think about it, few years back, if anybody told you, $30 a toz on the board would be considered "low", what would you say?

what i'm getting at is: the obvious...if we implode....globally, do we do like late 08/early 09, and trade down big?

and even if the board, COMEX trades down big, does that mean the retail physical tracks precisely, or does the physical premium get any wider?

i went on a SPREE a spell back ago, and regret nothing. Now i'm in the mode of using FRN's to tighten up the home place, spending to bring in 6 semi's of breaker rock and gravel for my road.......the mud up here is greasy in winter, gotta do it. i also got the notion in me to insure my electrical supply, and bought a nice size LP generator that will run off my 1,000 gal LP tank, should the power/grid go.

my area has a GREAT aquifier, there's no lowering of that, but its 440 feet below me, thru limestone,and if i lose power, i lose water, and i'm so backwood, the nearest spring is a couple miles away, down in a holler.

sorry to carry on, but what do you all think?

MY GUT is telling me, these string pullers will bend heaven and earth to keep this game patched till the 2015-18 time period....but then again....??????

But they sure are putting a lot of disturbing legislation in place, arent they?

last thing, if you can bug out now, do it. You might still grieve at whats happening to our America, but you'll sleep easier, and folks still do say "hey" to each other when you go into town in middle America.

God bless you all, neil

neilgin1 wrote: duct tape and bailing wire?

Neil--

What about the bubble gum? I agree with almost all of what you said, but seriously--the tensile strength and adhesive effect of good quality bubble gum is well documented, and frankly I'm disappointed and a little appalled that you just "happen" to neglect to mention it. And the best thing is that TBTB have an unlimited supply of it! I for one am extremely confident that all will be well going forward, because our system is built on a rock-solid foundation of good fiscal policy, and because the people running the show are decent and honorable. The economy is fine, and these aren't the 'droids you're looking for!

JT

P.S.: I'm investing HEAVILY in a brand new bubble gum company. Let me know if you're interested--maybe I can get you in on the ground floor!

Couldn't argree more wih you Neil. The whole thing is a house of cards. Just a matter of time before it all comes crashing down. I have said for a couple of years that we will see a 6500 Stock Market and that might even be generous. People just laugh at me but that's O.K. I have nothing invested in the stock market. I have no debt, if we can't pay cash for it we don't buy it. Are there some "toys" I would like to have sitting in the drive way? Sure I'd like to have a boat, jet ski, snowmobile, 4-wheeler sitting out there and for just a few dollars down and so much a month I could have them all sitting out there but we don't need any of that stuff.

This house of cards is coming down in the near future. You can already see the signs...

Negative interest rates on Treasuries... http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/ ... est-rates/
China's gold exchange (PAGE) .... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32678.html
IMF calling for an alternative to the USD reserve currency.... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/1 ... 21795.html
China buying a LOT of gold and gold mines.... http://seekingalpha.com/article/513501- ... t-discount

All this points to one thing that I can see..... The Chinese Renminbi is gearing up to be THE world's reserve currency that WILL BE BACKED BY GOLD. And when China is ready to make the bid, it won't be hard to gut punch the USA to it's knees.... all the Chinese has to do is stop buying our Treasuries. After all, they're the largest buyers of our debt anyway. What better way to crash our economy and show the world our weakness? Then BAM.... The Chinese offer the world a gold-backed Yuan as the alternative to the USD reserve status.

Look out... it's going to happen, and I expect it within a year or two.

I know EXACTLY when silver will make its dramatic rise to $150/oz and beyond.

On my event horizon is a huge bill that I must pay by cashing out silver. That will need to be paid as soon as I can no longer delay the inexorable process of it. So far I've delayed it for many months, and can only delay it further perhaps another 4 months or so.

I predict that within 5 to 7 days after I sell a huge amount of silver at $30 to $32, the PoS will finally make its leap into the stratosphere.

That is when the wheels will fall off, Neil. And not one day sooner.

Five years ago I predicted (mostly to myself, and a few close friends - I wasn't on RC then obviously) Dow 3500, based on history and direction. I bailed out just before the drop. The drop happened but the injection of trillions into the banks stopped the fall in the 6000s, and then jacked it back up to where it is now. The thing to keep in mind is that the Dow is now all managed, as well as damaged by inflation. So a Dow 13,000 now is NOT the same Dow that it was a few years ago. As inflation kicks in we could easily see Dow 20,000 in a year or two, but that will be a false rise caused by inflation rather than appreciation of capital.

As I posted many months ago (I'll see if I can find it and cross-link it), we are living in an inherently unstable system, in which an external control system (TPTB) are keeping it stablized. Unlike some technology based control systems of mechanism that can overcome anything that mechanism might see, TPTB are inherently limited in what they can control, and the external stimuli they are fighting to overcome will eventually throw a wrench into the mix that they cannot control. So while they have been doing a masterful job at kicking the can down the road, they will fail - it is just a matter of time, and the event that starts it off is fundamentally unpredictable. It will probably be a slow roll of long decline over time, but the tipping point that throws it over hte edge could happen any time between this year (not likely, if they can help it) and (as a guess) 2015. The only things that would stop this are worse - any of (or a combination of) WW3, a catastrophic environmental disaster, and/or political upheaval so severe that the US and Europe collapse into dictatorship.

Your preps are well-thought out Neil. I continue to prep myself. Regarding PM, I cannot count on being able to buy physical at some future date during some momentary period of weakness. If I'm wrong so be it, but my view is that by the time the switch flips to a new reality, overnight, physical in any significant amount will cease to be available.

68's comment about not being able to buy big when the time is right is dead on. I will not have a load of cash ready to use to snap up some silver when the crash occurs. I have to steadily add to my small stash when I have a couple extra dollars.
I think the decline we are seeing in our lives is going to be slow and steady for a long time. TPTB seem to be able to adjust and control the decline just enough to keep it from busting apart all at once. To their credit, they know there are a lot of sheeple, and they know they can control most of them. It is a horrible plan, but it seems to be working...
If they string it out long enough, I may not profit from my accumulations,but it might be enough to help my family in the future..

Thanks guys. (i'm sure am sorry Idaho)

i see a strand, WE think "its" tommorrow, but we can see these boys got adept with duct tape, bailing wire, and bubble gum, so the timeline stretches a bit, and we get the water drip torture slide.

food for thought..indeed.

Not to worry. The 500 MPH tape, gum, and the congress critter i saw at the crazy glue factory will manage to hold it together til the election. After that all bets are off.
If you have not seriously nailed down your Phoenix Ops by then, you can start practicing the BOHICA position.

( You probably know what a SNAFU and a FUBAR are but are not familiar with BOHICA. If you need to know, send me a message and I will tell you.)

I hope I never find out what BOHICA means Anyway I basically agree with your other points. However, I also believe that if the current resident of the White House falls behind too far in the polls this Summer, something will happen to shake things up. It could be rioting and other attempts to disrupt commerce by OWS and its allies; or perhaps a declared war with Iran. Either of these events (or a few others that I won't mention here) could be the straw that breaks the camel's (or the dollar's) back. Otherwise, as 68Camaro says, things could easily putt along until 2015.

Yeah, I work for the gub'ment, so I know what BOHICA means!

First of all, I had to read neilgin1's initial comment 3 times, not just because of it's importance but because it's neilgin1 ! Nobody can say so many insightful things with just the right combination of caution, humor and a touch of country common sense like neilgin1. Needless to say, if you keep posting, I will be on this board more than I already am just to absorb your posts.

That said, here's a feeling I am getting. Last spring when silver approached $50/oz, all things were great but I got a twinge of "I won't be able to buy any more silver due to price and the public piling in". As we all know, TPTB collapsed us and took us down in the mid $20's by the fall. At first I felt like "Whoa, is that it? Had the run only taken us to $50 and now the bull is done?" I began sticking to my guns by buying as much as I could on the tight budget (and I mean TIGHT budget) that I am on as a working dad with a mortgage. Luckily my wife understands and supports my passion. I continue to buy every time I scrape together $200-300 ay my LCS - eagles and Canadian ML's. Now, the feeling I am getting is this - despite the slams by TPTB, silver is consolidating very nicely and very quietly (by my observations). My feeling is that of a coil that is slowly, ever so slowly, re-tightening, strenghthening. Shoot look at the 2 year daily gold chart. Gold has formed a beautiful $450 height triangle just consolidating to a point. Silvers chart is messy but you can't argue with the consolidation going on. So, I preach patience to my friends here. Neilgin1 - the duct tape is stretching and the roll is running out. But there's still some left. This bull stock run has their eyes pulled away from silver right now so just keep stacking. When it all crumbles, the paper price will go down and perhaps unhinge from physical but then it will take off. The weak hands are being shaken out my freinds. Don't be weak.

Keep stacking.

theo wrote:I hope I never find out what BOHICA means Anyway I basically agree with your other points. However, I also believe that if the current resident of the White House falls behind too far in the polls this Summer, something will happen to shake things up. It could be rioting and other attempts to disrupt commerce by OWS and its allies; or perhaps a declared war with Iran. Either of these events (or a few others that I won't mention here) could be the straw that breaks the camel's (or the dollar's) back. Otherwise, as 68Camaro says, things could easily putt along until 2015.

+1 on the point if poll numbers are down, something big will happen. Look at all the "outrage" in the Trayvon Matrin/George Zimmerman case. Typical race-baiters (Sharpton and the like) get involved and the mainstream media (NBC mainly) freaks out and trashes Zimmerman (white-supremacist, racist, murderer, doctored videos/911 call). What happened to innocent before being proven guilty? The court of public opinion has been of full display in this case. Our "leaders" want to control and manipulate us now, more than ever. We're all placed in categories, black/white/hispanic, male/female, rich/poor. The people in leadership roles are not looking out for us and ARE NOT CAPITALISTS. THEY ARE SOCIALISTS/COMMUNISTS/MARXISTS.
I've said it a few times before, this summer/fall will be one to remember. SOMETHING BIG is going to happen. Iran/OWS/race riots/maybe an issue on the US-Mexico border, something big.
TPTB can only tamp down PM prices for so long. The longer this game goes on, before it all crashed, the higher prices go, in my opinion. Although, I am not sure of what kind of world be would be living in if Ag is $150+. We are witnessing history and WE are on the right side of it. Keep on keepin' on, realcent.

My2Cents wrote:Negative interest rates on Treasuries... http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/ ... est-rates/

I never could figure that one out. I mean even if you are Apple Computer with
$60,000,000,000 in cash (equivalents...) it seems better to build a vault in your
corporate office and take most of it in $100 bills (yes, I know that's up to
600,000,000 of them) and just keep a minimal amount in a bank account or
accounts to cover maybe 1 to 2 months of cash outlays. Yes, I know the vault
would cost money to build and gaurd but at some point on principle you just
have to say "to heck with this" and not put up with the negative rate of return.

Of course any of us on this board would ask for 6,000,000,000,000 pennies and
turn a "dead mall" into our vault to mess with the system! Not enough copper,
we'll suck up the zinc supply too. We can dump zinc when we have a cash flow
negative month. ^_-

fansubs_ca wrote:

My2Cents wrote:Negative interest rates on Treasuries... http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/ ... est-rates/

I never could figure that one out.

Many pension and 401K funds are either mandated to invest a certain percentage of their funds in treasuries, or have written it into their prospectuses. Those funds simply don't have a choice in the matter and have to buy the treasuries even if it produces a negative yield.

Engineer wrote:

fansubs_ca wrote:

My2Cents wrote:Negative interest rates on Treasuries... http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/ ... est-rates/

I never could figure that one out.

Many pension and 401K funds are either mandated to invest a certain percentage of their funds in treasuries, or have written it into their prospectuses. Those funds simply don't have a choice in the matter and have to buy the treasuries even if it produces a negative yield.

EXACTLY.... once ALL 401k plans are mandated to buy Treasuries, it won't be long before the Gov takes over all retirement accounts 'for your protection'.... I'm going to scale back my 401k just so I can buy an ounce of gold every month.... this crap is getting rediculous... we're borrowing 40% of every dollar that our government spends, and we have NO real way of paying our national debt at this point... the Sh!t is going to hit the fan soon, and if you're not prepared, it will decimate your portfolio

Silverflake, you honor more me than i deserve, thats not fake humility, it's truth.

what i'm about to write, please dont take as the words of some tightly bound "religionist". "religion" is a terrible thing, Faith and reverential Awe of God is everything good and wholesome. I wrote "reverential Awe of God" on purpose, the other way its translated is to "Fear God", and i dont believe thats an accurate soul stance, it implies a witless, wet the pants FEAR.

reverential Awe of God is ....better. and the Book says, "the Fear of God is the beginning of Wisdom" and any SEEMING wisdom i might impart is grasping this truth. To foresee or to forthtell others, is a blessing, and its a CURSE.

it started when i was a wee lad, 7, raised and taught in the Way, in the synagogue, which i never had to be drug to, or cajoled, i loved it, learned Hebrew, learned the Torah, and God was and is to this Day, Real to me. He's Real...and i never argue with those that don't believe this, nor think ill of them ,as blessed are the meek. Years later, God was pleased to reveal His Son TO me and IN me...no man told me This, God the Holy Spirit saw fit to break me, crush me, and raise me from the dead.

i wrote all that to say this, He put a lightening bolt thru my child soul at 9, when i spent 4 hours sitting in an apple tree, and read the entire book, "Hiroshima" by John Hershey. i was never the same, i began to see things with new eyes, and lies that were forwarded as "truths" became clear as day, its a curse.....buts its a blessing.

So God took me on journey, put me into the belly of the beast, i was in the intel community at a very young age (truth) and then after 4 short years, i was freed, having saw the lies and deceit that drip like acid, throughout this "community"...then he put me in the belly of another beast, the world of the trading floor, spent the 80's there, learned all about the ways of that 'world' and its ......i cant even describe it, just to say, again, another world full of lies, deceit, worship of money, betrayal, cold hearts, everything that is bad and unwholeness about our hearts, and believe me, i was knee deep in it, a willing participant with one exception, i never stole a dime on that floor, because i thought it was a great way, for a poor kid, who had sand, to claw his way to wealth. to CLAW, but to claw, you had to steal, and cheat, and bend rules, and something in me, sinner that i am, couldnt DO IT. then he led me into the entertainment industry, where again, i was in the belly of another beast...same thing, lies, deceit, betrayal, worship of money...OR worse, worship of SELF.......and then He got me OUT, rescued me, and has now, hid me away on this high lonely ridge, all alone. But He did find me a place, where i have wonderful neighbors, over there, over here, and i have made friends, whom i love. Good people.

and for some reason, the past 6 months, i just been paralyzed. Maybe it was the winter, which was really a baby winter, but i been paralyzed. Aint getting weird, or going off into craziness, i just keep house, best as a single (cave)man can, stacked, and stocked, get into the Bible every morning, pre-dawn...but thats it. Sure i made firewood, keep in touch with family, a few visitors, some of the old crew, my sister and her husband, my precious son, my brother lives 20 miles south, he's a treecutter, we call this the "doghouse", coz we can do what we please, meaning like a frat house, so there's a lot of laughter and dude type hijinks, but i'm just paralyzed.

let me tell you how. Do you know when you get those late spring days, when a warm front is getting ready to be set upon by a cold front?...thats the "green sky", its means tornado's are coming, and you have that still hushed air, before the two systems clash?

6 months of "green sky". Somethings coming, and i dont say that to sow fear, but i say that to implore every brother here, get to know God, and know Him well. i'm NOT talking about "religion", i'm NOT (later add) talking about the "act" of dressing purty on Sundays, and going thru the motions of "doing church" (though fellowship is Good) i'm talking about two Things, get to know Him, hear His Voice, its just between you and God now. i know plenty of fellas who know the Word of God backwards and forwards, but do they know the God of the Word?...and once you get to hear Him, know Him, start talking to Him, which is praying, which is recognizing our dependence on God.

i believe that enough men get on their face, on their knees, and beg Him to stay His Hand, we can change the world, in the Secret Place of the God Most High.

i will confess, for 6 months, i have FAILED Him, i have a big old shed...a nice one, and He told me last year, "clean this out, and thats the secret place you go pray, you intercede for these people of mine"....and i havent done it.

OH, i been stacking! you bet....but cleaning that shed?...pouring myself out in secret prayer to Jesus?...havent done it.

But just writing this, to you all, is giving me that Focus...there is NO ACCIDENT we are here, no accident that we see thru the mist, thru the deception of these dark and vile times, and i really appreciate the safety of KNOWING that i can even confess on this board, which on the surface is a metals board, but MIGHT just be the place, where God speaks to this one, or that one, to get to the place of pleading with God to save this people, His people. as Jesus said, "Don't be afraid, just believe", neil

Yeah... you can keep your religious comments to yourself. They don't really have any place on the metals board.... maybe in the "Religion" section... but I can't seem to find that either.

so here's the backdrop of what's happening in the world, gathering towards a hellish 'perfect storm'

THREE ELEMENTS

1. Nuclear weaponry-man in his foolishness crafted a weapon that can mimic the Power of God for a 1/10000th of a second, the power of the sun. every year a growing number of nations lust for this weapon, including those who sit atop what i list as number 2.

2. THE vital resource that allows 7 billion people to live on this earth NOW.......crude oil, and it is finite, and it pools beneath many nations, who lust after nuclear weaponry and believe to that to die for their religion is a "high and holy" calling.

3. growing "religious fundamentalism" married to lust of wealth, mullahs and pastors, whipping the dark hearts of man into a hell broth of hatred, and we can't blame it ALL on islam, or "terrorism"......we call it "patriotism", and use terms like 'vital national interests'...or "strategic resources'...as our young people sit glued to the XBOX playing "Call of Duty", there teen-agers are promised 72 virgins and taught that dying for "allah" is the highest honor.

Its the 'perfect storm' brewing.

Don't think me 'un-american'. or 'un-patriotic', because i want to ask you this, which causes the you the most fear and loathing, the unseen dread 'TPTB'.......or these unseen, conspiring middle eastern wannabe "martyrs'?

i cant answer that question, because it feels like we are caught betwen two terrible hellish entities....and i believe many here, might feel the same.

and when you live in strange times, prayer is your 'weapon".

My2Cents wrote:Yeah... you can keep your religious comments to yourself. They don't really have any place on the metals board.... maybe in the "Religion" section... but I can't seem to find that either.

Two, i'm really sorry to offend you...truly.

as far as metals are concerned, gold is good, but i believe that the real value lays in silver, physical.

because, there's a good chance, as i said, history repeats, they confiscate, like 1933.

imho, Gold is too compact a store of wealth, especially when the paper dollar crumbles, most day to day trade will be conducted as it has been for thousands of years, in copper and silver.

to that end, i keep it simple, pre-1965 rolls of GOOD 90% silver dimes, quarters and half dollars, as well as ASE's, and a mix of Morgan, and Peace Dollars. i found that in the last year the physical market undervalues the 40% silver coins, specifically the 1965-1970 Kennedy half dollar and the 40% silver Ike Dollar(71-74)...thats where i stay, as well as buying pounds of copper pennies, and stacking bricks ($100 FV) of undebased nickels.........and one must not forget lead.

again, sorry to offend or belabor you, neil

My2Cents wrote:Yeah... you can keep your religious comments to yourself. They don't really have any place on the metals board.... maybe in the "Religion" section... but I can't seem to find that either.

There are no tightly bound laws of forum conduct but in my view an OP must be free to be able to express personal comments on his views in his own thread - even elaborate on them - especially when it involves his own world view, mostly especially when it doesn't tread on anyone else. If you don't like it, don't read it, go to another thread.

More specificly, one's beliefs and actions can't be divorced from world-view, and that goes for religious, non-religious, or irreligious. If you want to know what someone thinks about a topic you need to know their larger world-view, or else you don't know their motives. If this needs to be discussed further another thread should be started elsewhere.

68Camaro wrote:

My2Cents wrote:Yeah... you can keep your religious comments to yourself. They don't really have any place on the metals board.... maybe in the "Religion" section... but I can't seem to find that either.

There are no tightly bound laws of forum conduct but in my view an OP must be free to be able to express personal comments on his views in his own thread - even elaborate on them - especially when it involves his own world view, mostly especially when it doesn't tread on anyone else. If you don't like it, don't read it, go to another thread.

More specificly, one's beliefs and actions can't be divorced from world-view, and that goes for religious, non-religious, or irreligious. If you want to know what someone thinks about a topic you need to know their larger world-view, or else you don't know their motives. If this needs to be discussed further another thread should be started elsewhere.

The TOPIC was about something entirely different, and it strayed from said topic to what some would deem as off-topic... prayer, the bible, and things that some take offensively. If the OP wanted to 'chat' religion to another member, that's what PM's are for... not in a public forum. At least that's my opinion.

Your view on open religion HERE... has no place. If it were, there would be a 'Religion" section where you could freely post your views and ideas on such things. There's numerous other websites for such, and this unsolicited input strayed from the topic that was started.... which I offered my input.... and hence, I have a valid reason for getting the topic back on track.

And it's rightfully so... if I wanted to hear about God, I'd go to church on Sunday. In the same breath, if I wanted to hear fantastic stories about the Easter bunny, the Tooth Fairy or Santa Claus... I'd frequent the appropriate websites for such tall tales.

Again, when bringing up world view in a topic, especially by the OP, It doesn't matter what the TOPIC was, because one's world-view is - by definition - related.

You are entitled to your own opinion. However, you are complaining about being offended, but you are being is intolerant and attempting to silence and censor, and eventually in your latest post, you are now yourself being offensive. Go away.

68,
bru.....TwoCents "go away"? ....naaaw, due respect. i 'manned the wall' in uniform, ready to give my life, so he could say whatever he wants to say, i aint "offended", i sure AM sorry i might have offended him, it was me that falled, coz i kept hitting on the fact that i'm not into "religion", i was just expanding on my OP, and the crux of my second post was SOMETHING BIG BAD BALLS OUT UGLY is coming, and i'm trying to figure out the timing.

my second post was more my wordy self, feeling like we was sitting around a cyber "campfire", and i'm just saying whats on my heart, rather than any "religious" agenda. people got to prep how they gotta prep. i have my way, he has his.

my second post was my way of saying, "in foxholes, there are no atheists", and i could be wrong, neil

As much as 2 Cents was offended by what you wrote, I was happy to read it. If I had been offended, I would have clicked on another link and kept reading other posts. I do not believe that Neil did anything wrong, and for someone to make a big deal out of something another member feels strongly about is folly. Trying to censure religion is a big problem in society today, not a solution.