Realcent.org

i'm sure we've all heard this again and again, but i read this very salient article from Paul Craig Roberts, and thought to myself, i gotta share this with my bro's at RC. You can always tell the real deals from the hacks, and Paul is the real deal, so here you bru's go

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/06 ... e-at-hand/

like we discussed before, we really CANT ascertain the time frame, but we know barometric pressure is dropping.

[shucks], i'd much rather be a "Danny Archer" than a Jamie Dimon, or a Geithner or a Bernacke any day month or year of the week. i loathe small men with no balls and a fear of death.

Danny http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGfiolv_ ... re=related

The Roberts summary is well done. Hard to capture it all, but he does enough. His "solution" however, only affects one of the issues. Even if the derivative risk disappeared we'd still be screwed, just one less potential direction for the black swan to fly in from.

68Camaro wrote:The Roberts summary is well done. Hard to capture it all, but he does enough. His "solution" however, only affects one of the issues. Even if the derivative risk disappeared we'd still be screwed, just one less potential direction for the black swan to fly in from.

Ah, but it can't be a black swan now that you've made us all aware of it. I've read the Roberts article twice now. I really like his style. I have also twice almost sent it out to some of my contacts but at the last moment cancelled the email because some people just refuse to get informed. There will be enough swans of any color to put most of the country in a state of shock and awe. Coming soon to a (martial law) theater near you.

I don't understand why nobody can give a time frame for it.

SoFa wrote:I don't understand why nobody can give a time frame for it.

Not sure if you kidding or not, but TPTB clearly are increasingly willing to use ever more desparate means to keep things "afloat". Methods that 50 years ago would have been rejected out of hand are now considered commonplace daily techniques, and who knows what they are doing that we don't know about.

"On paper", the US is in much better shape than Europe. I'm wondering if the US powers that be are just better at cooking the books, or what?

Mossy wrote:"On paper", the US is in much better shape than Europe. I'm wondering if the US powers that be are just better at cooking the books, or what?

The US is the most transparent. Eurpoe has been sweeping their mess under peripheral rugs for a long time. The Euro is a failure from the start. You can't succeed having multiple sovereign debt issuances with a central fiat currency. When they suddenly arise (just after all robustness exams were passed with flying colors)the fiscal problems are always greater than initially thought, which also puts more strain on the anchor economies to perpetually determine if it is worth paying for the transgressions of others or let the experiment fail.

Cheers!

Jonflyfish wrote:

Mossy wrote:"On paper", the US is in much better shape than Europe. I'm wondering if the US powers that be are just better at cooking the books, or what?

The US is the most transparent.

please tell me, you do not REALLY believe this! and i retort without rancor or ill will, just stunned.

so stunned, i dont even know how to counter this, only with a question; have you ever spent any time in the US intel community?...or maybe say the sprawling military-banking-petrol-prison complex?....and i'm not wearing any alcoa products on my head, trust me when i tell you that.

"transparent"?...oh Jonny, the river of sewage is deep and wide. Tragically, we are in much worse shape than Europe, we just have some very lethal legions that can do the grab. Just pray that this whole new "news cycle" on Syria doesnt play out like it looks likes going to, the Russians and Chinese are now meeting in the Middle Kingdom,and they're prepping to draw a line in the sand. Never underestimate your adversary, its a classic war gaming mistake.

Brother, as God is my witness, i'm not trying to "troll" you, but NOTHING is "transparent" these days, and i most certainly welcome disagreement, thats called discussion, which is good. neil

just as a side bar, i was flipping bids into buy rolls last night, wasnt ramping and rip roaring, but i was bidding strong, and didnt get a thing, which was fine, shows me underlying strength...its there in the PM's, have a good Sunday, and make sure to re-hydrate, thats why they made gatorade.

neilgin1 wrote:

Jonflyfish wrote:

Mossy wrote:"On paper", the US is in much better shape than Europe. I'm wondering if the US powers that be are just better at cooking the books, or what?

The US is the most transparent.

please tell me, you do not REALLY believe this! and i retort without rancor or ill will, just stunned.

so stunned, i dont even know how to counter this, only with a question; have you ever spent any time in the US intel community?...or maybe say the sprawling military-banking-petrol-prison complex?....and i'm not wearing any alcoa products on my head, trust me when i tell you that.

"transparent"?...oh Jonny, the river of sewage is deep and wide. Tragically, we are in much worse shape than Europe, we just have some very lethal legions that can do the grab. Just pray that this whole new "news cycle" on Syria doesnt play out like it looks likes going to, the Russians and Chinese are now meeting in the Middle Kingdom,and they're prepping to draw a line in the sand. Never underestimate your adversary, its a classic war gaming mistake.

Brother, as God is my witness, i'm not trying to "troll" you, but NOTHING is "transparent" these days, and i most certainly welcome disagreement, thats called discussion, which is good. neil

just as a side bar, i was flipping bids into buy rolls last night, wasnt ramping and rip roaring, but i was bidding strong, and didnt get a thing, which was fine, shows me underlying strength...its there in the PM's, have a good Sunday, and make sure to re-hydrate, thats why they made gatorade.

Indeed yes I do believe what I said. Not only I but the rest of the global financial community believes the same. The US is the most transparent. Good or bad it all comes out in the wash faster in the US markets than anywhere else. Nowhere is the market larger, more transparent or more liquid than the USD. One can argue against this notion in theory but in practice (put your money where your mouth is) the (still) overwhelming majority allocate into the USD as the primary global reserve currency- period. People can bellyache and complain all they want but the market is always the last and final arbituer and it has spoken.

Cheers!

on the 15th of June, a man some of you might know, hurled a lightening bolt thru the net. James Wesley Rawles. i have certain issues with him, he runs arguably the preeminent "prepper" blog......called 'survivalblog'......he's a 'true believer', but in the past year or more, i have found the whole 'prepper' thing rather tiresome, as that whats they LIVE for, it all gets to be rather dreary imo, as i believe one should endeavor to live a FULL life, full of joy and thankfulness, etc.....that said, he did write a rather seminal coherent piece on what a potential US bank run would look like. i'll post the link, and you can decide whether it bears any import.

the problem is, when someone becomes an "important voice" in ANYTHING, there's a certain responsibility one bears, in their public writings, pronouncements, utterances...and as i write this, on 18 Jun 2012, at about 0640 (CST) Greek elections went to the pro-bailout centre right party, and there will not be a US bank run, as so many people, within the prepper community assumed, after reading this.

i personally, went about weekend business, splitting firewood, reading, etc...but this scared a lot of folks, what i'm about to link to:

"20 Reasons Why America's Next Bank Holiday Will Be a Nightmare"
"The world is on now on the brink of a global credit crisis that could be far worse than the tumultuous events of 2008. The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the southern reaches of the Eurozone indicate that bank runs in the region will continue, and that more bank closure "holidays" will be declared. Under a bank holiday, virtually all deposits could be frozen and irredeemable for days, weeks, or even months. The key question is: Will this crisis spread to the rest of Europe and then even to the United States? I urge SurvivalBlog readers--particularly those in Europe--to be proactive, to stay "ahead of the power curve." While the Generally Dumb Public (GDP) wakes up some morning to hear news of a bank holiday, you will have long hence prepared yourself."

link: http://www.survivalblog.com/2012/06/20- ... tmare.html

so i hope might be of some use to you all, neil

Interesting article. The "s" seems to be accelerating toward the fan.

Hawkeye wrote:Interesting article. The "s" seems to be accelerating toward the fan.

yeh, sure does.....but i'll tell ya, of all the looming clouds, the one that has my attention is Fukushima...the Japs DO NOT have a handle on that thing at all, and with their "don't lose face" mindset, they are not copping to the truth, nor asking for any meaningful assistance.

that one right there, makes everything else pale in consideration.

neilgin1 wrote:

Hawkeye wrote:Interesting article. The "s" seems to be accelerating toward the fan.

yeh, sure does.....but i'll tell ya, of all the looming clouds, the one that has my attention is Fukushima...the Japs DO NOT have a handle on that thing at all, and with their "don't lose face" mindset, they are not copping to the truth, nor asking for any meaningful assistance.

that one right there, makes everything else pale in consideration.

New Zealand, anyone? By that I mean there is a growing consensus that Fukushima will eventually pollute the entire Northern Hemisphere. Australia seems to be less favorable a destination than New Zealand for some wealthy individuals I know, for some reason. Me? I'd rather glow in the dark than try to buy my way to citizenship elsewhere, even if I did win the lottery which ain't gonna happen.

Neil, by the way, the Japanese do not care for the handle "Japs." It would be similar to calling a Southern gentleman "reb" shortly after the War of Northern Aggression. It doesn't bother me if you call them that, but just thought I'd let you know so it never slips out in polite conversation with some of our Far East neighbors.

Perhaps gloom and doom is the way, but not today. The markets are orderly. The can has effectively been kicked down the road which is not good for JWR et al who need people to click some ads and load up on gas masks, bunkers and AK-47's NOW! There are almost as many false prophets now as there are fortune tellers
Just goes to show that people will find articles and blogs to support whatever their views are. Nobody is wrong and nobody is accountable.
Cheers!

Jonflyfish wrote:Perhaps gloom and doom is the way, but not today. The markets are orderly. The can has effectively been kicked down the road which is not good for JWR et al who need people to click some ads and load up on gas masks, bunkers and AK-47's NOW! There are almost as many false prophets now as there are fortune tellers
Just goes to show that people will find articles and blogs to support whatever their views are. Nobody is wrong and nobody is accountable.
Cheers!

yeh, i'm aware that jimmy has agenda...most everybody does. and the fear inherent attached to the doomers, turns me off big time. i am a stickler for wargaming situations, and i know we're going to have to do a debt reset. i also know civility in america, is an archaic relic, so....there it is.

What I am curious about is how many people expect that said "reset" is inevitable and what are their plans to get through it, should it occur. Also at what level of progression do you percieve this reset to be at?

Z00 wrote:What I am curious about is how many people expect that said "reset" is inevitable and what are their plans to get through it, should it occur. Also at what level of progression do you percieve this reset to be at?

It won't be the USD and not anytime soon. Confidence as expressed through direct investment in the USD (as opposed to the gloom and doom in the blogosphere)in the USD is quite robust. The Market has yet again cast its vote to sustain the USD as the overwhelming choice for the global reserve currency.

Cheers!

Yes and that's why I don't see any major run up in gold or silver. The euro crisis has to play out. As long as the euro is in crisis, we will easily be able to fund our deficit because everyone will want the dollar and flock to us treasuries. Because gold is priced in dollars I think that limits major upside to gold. It could still rise, just slowly. But, if the euro crisis abates through introduction of euro bonds, euro depository insurance, or even in the extreme case a new EU governing body that centralizes power, then the bond vigilantes might find a new target (hopefully japan before the US with their 200%+ debt to GDP ratio). Only when the US becomes the focus of the bond vigilantes will gold start rising more rapidly...how fast? You tell me.

inflationhawk wrote:Yes and that's why I don't see any major run up in gold or silver. The euro crisis has to play out. As long as the euro is in crisis, we will easily be able to fund our deficit because everyone will want the dollar and flock to us treasuries. Because gold is priced in dollars I think that limits major upside to gold. It could still rise, just slowly. But, if the euro crisis abates through introduction of euro bonds, euro depository insurance, or even in the extreme case a new EU governing body that centralizes power, then the bond vigilantes might find a new target (hopefully japan before the US with their 200%+ debt to GDP ratio). Only when the US becomes the focus of the bond vigilantes will gold start rising more rapidly...how fast? You tell me.

+1 Nice analysis. I think the PM bugs have lost some credibility with their incessent calls for $2,000 gold and $60 silver. Having said that I agree that PMs are still safe long-run bets. In short-run the deflationary pressures overseas and at home seem to be enough to keep PMs and other inflation hedges in check, especially with the Fed's current unwillingness to openly engage in QE.

Regarding transparency, while I agree the U.S. markets are manipulated to at least some extent; the perception remains that our asset values are genuine. And, whether we like it or not, perception is reality. If our markets are not transparant, that corruption must be (by definition) hidden to succeed.

SoFa wrote:I don't understand why nobody can give a time frame for it.

Lindsey Williams has given and continues to update a time frame. He has stated that Libya pushed back the agenda by 3 months, but also that the USD would be worthless by the end of 2012 (not dead, but not having value). I'm not an advocate for blindly following anybody, but his oil calls have been unmatched.

Z00 wrote:What I am curious about is how many people expect that said "reset" is inevitable and what are their plans to get through it, should it occur. Also at what level of progression do you percieve this reset to be at?

It's hard to say where we are at, but it does feel like it is accelerating to me which would indicate it is pretty far along. Chris Martenson's analogy of a stadium filling up with water exponentially comes to mind. You can start with one drop of water and double it every minute, and it will take a long time to fill up that stadium, however it is only within the last 5 minutes that anybody will notice which is almost too late. My plan is for basic supplies and protection for self reliancy to see myself and my family through the reset, and precious metals to sidestep the paper bonfire as well as to have wealth on the other side.

inflationhawk wrote:Yes and that's why I don't see any major run up in gold or silver. The euro crisis has to play out. As long as the euro is in crisis, we will easily be able to fund our deficit because everyone will want the dollar and flock to us treasuries. Because gold is priced in dollars I think that limits major upside to gold. It could still rise, just slowly. But, if the euro crisis abates through introduction of euro bonds, euro depository insurance, or even in the extreme case a new EU governing body that centralizes power, then the bond vigilantes might find a new target (hopefully japan before the US with their 200%+ debt to GDP ratio). Only when the US becomes the focus of the bond vigilantes will gold start rising more rapidly...how fast? You tell me.

To paraphrase Lindsey Williams again, he's stated that if the Euro has major problems it will be a matter of weeks before the USD follows suit. This doesn't require a leap of faith since all these banks rehypothecate with each other and loan the same assets back and forth to balloon up their balance sheets. If there is a soveriegn default in Europe it will hit their banks hard, and our banks are exposed to their banks. During the segway metals will have headwinds priced in USD as it strengthens against the Euro, but that would be a temporary lull before safe haven demand and more money printing kick things into gear. I do not see how the Euro crisis can abate because all the EU member nations cannot print their own money to pay off their impossible debts like the US and the UK. All they can do is exit/default or tighten the belt down to a tourniquet. Germany is not going to pay for everybody. The Fed and ECB probably will, but that doesn't change the fact that the course is unsustainable. It would just draw it out. I'm not sure the bond vigilantes matter to them because they will just buy up all the bonds with money printing anyway. At this point it's the physical silver vigilantes who can hit them where it counts.

The more I look at it, the more I just don't believe the Euro will collapse. I believe Germany is in a position where they have to relent to a combination of a Euro bonds and Euro depository insurance solution. Germany has too much to lose by the Euro breakup and they've seemingly lost France as an austerity / hard line reform partner. I believe this just adds to the world trend of government money printing which will devalue most currencies against hard assets. The one country with the biggest surplus (China) has their currency virtually pegged to the dollar (only slight fluctuation, not completely fixed) so it can't strengthen as it should. With the Euro, Dollar and Yen all in monetary easing modes, how long can the inflation genie stay in the bottle? The dollar's strength and it's ability to keep import prices in check has only come as a result of the Euro crisis. That can't last forever.

I forgot who first said it, but I've heard this called a "slow train wreck." It certainly looks and feels like it to me.