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Silver prices are moving up and down...same as it ever was. However, looking at the last year we seem to be in a generally downward trend.


Here's the last 6 months:


So what's got to happen to reverse the trend? China's coming in for a hard landing. Europe is imploding. The US is can-kicking with more Twisting by the Traitors of the Universe at the Federal Reserve. Low interest rates as far as the eye can see.

Are any of you starting to get worried about having bought in when silver was over $40/oz? Are we kidding ourselves about the price going to the moon?

Sure, there will be rallies. We can count on JFF to flag those for us. How long do they last though? And when the rallies end, aren't we seeing a drop in prices back to below the base from which the rally started?

Please jump in all ye prognosticators of secret wisdom and share with us peons.

I'm still bullish long term. Got a lot of years ahead of me still, at least statistically. Don't worry about that chart. That's just the dollars buying power fluctuating.

I'm buying what I can when I can. If silver goes below $20 am I going to be upset I bought at $30? Nope I'm going to be extremely happy I can buy at $20 and buy double what I bought at $30!

I gave up trying to understand how all the world problems will affect silver. It's good to have some, but for now I think it will return to where it was before all the hoopla of 2011.

this is the chart i like to look at doug...



im in for the long haul

i buy what little i can when i can

the dollar collapse is coming - just a matter of time

keep the faith !

No one knows the future - where've I heard that before?

However, the future - eventually - does involve the collapse of fiat money. What will take it's place? bitcoin? Maybe, but I doubt it. Fiat ones and zeros...

The history of retained stored wealth for 3000 years has been with gold, silver, copper.

Redo 10-12 year plot at different scales and you'll see periods of increase and consolidation. The 2004 number doesn't look like much, when the scale is 0-55, but replot 2000-2005 on a scale of 0-9 and it will pop at you. Same with 2006. And 2008-9. We're arguably in yet another period of this which seems to happen every 2-3 years. Now TPTB are working it - yes indeed. But it is also a natural part of a long-term bull market. And the bull market isn't over until you see exponential rise (we've seen steep rises, but nothing exponential), and wide-spread activity with the "common" investor getting into it (too late).

The next phase of the run-up will happen out of control of TPTB and, while I don't know precisely what the stimulus will be (failure of banks, of countries, war, etc) we will see it run from 30 to 100+ within a 6-12 month period. You want to be in it now - not after the next phase starts. Could it drop back to 20 before the run-up starts? Sure. When it's 120, will it matter much whether you started at 20 or 30? No, not much at all. Is 10% extra worth missing the entire run? No.

shinnosuke wrote:Are any of you starting to get worried about having bought in when silver was over $40/oz? Are we kidding ourselves about the price going to the moon?

Sure, there will be rallies. We can count on JFF to flag those for us. How long do they last though? And when the rallies end, aren't we seeing a drop in prices back to below the base from which the rally started?

Don't confuse price with value or you'll drive yourself nutty by staring at charts everyday... unless you are looking to flip physical or gamble in the netherworld of 1s and 0s. We all have our reasons and goals for being in the metals hobby. If yours isn't based on either of what I just mentioned then don't worry about short term price, focus on long term value.

I have to agree with 68camaro... ALL fiat eventually fails. History has proven it over and over.

And I'll also agree with the OP as well. It appears that the overall trend in the charts is headed down. However, I also believe that the impending doom of the USD/EUR is inevitable. A few more years of bailouts mixed with the substantial entitlement programs, will bankrupt everything.

I'm sticking with PMs for the long haul and only putting in money that I have lying around. If things work out (which I suspect they will), then I'll profit handsomely. If not, I'll still survive and my grandkids can have a vast treasure hoard to cash out when I die in 50 years. Either way it's a win-win

Thanks guys, for all the comments. Just to clarify, other than a few fun auctions here, I haven't sold a drop of my recently acquired silver. I won't either. It will either be used as full value currency in a post-collapse scenario or it will go to my kids. Further, I haven't dabbled in SLV or any of the other alphabet soup paper offerings. I'm just not confident in my ability to guess which way those markets will stampede. My hat's off to those who profit in stocks.

I am now in the market to buy some farm/hideout land. My least favorite currency, Federal Reserve Hiney Wipes, will be used for that. However, if silver drops significantly from the current $26-27 range, I will be back in the market. Why? Because I can't help myself.

How long have PM prices been manipulated?
Who is doing it?
Why did they start?
Why would they stop?

Answer those questions by finding the hidden truths, and you just might figure out PM pricing and its future. Good Luck!

If not, its all a crap-shoot.