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Will there ever be a physical shortage? If so, when will it happen and why?

According to this video if everyone just in the US i.e. approximately 350 million people purchased two ounces it would equal the total amount of silver mined annually i.e. 700 million ounces. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHcusYVw ... re=related

Ok, this is a nice make believe story but we all know that is not going to happen. However the example does helps you get your mind wrapped around how small the silver market appears to be.

If you look at the information provided by The Silver Institute it would lead you to believe that there is a prefect balance in the supply and demand: http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

No offense, but I got to call BS on that one!

However then you can go to the page on: Supply from Above-Ground Stocks
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/sup ... er-supply/

In 2010 there was 323.3 million ounces and in 2011 there was 278.9 million ounces

To add more historical prospective, The Silver Institute has a November 2011 report titled: The Silver Investment Market An Update, which forecasts world silver investment will reach a record high total of $10 billion in 2011, representing a 66 percent increase over the $6 billion posted in 2010 and 1,150% over the $800 Million in 2007!
http://www.silverinstitute.org/images/s ... eNov11.pdf

Ok, now if you don't already you need to check out Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

As of July 11, 2010: The COMEX has the registered or dealer silver inventory rests tonight at 38.688 million oz. The total of all silver rests at 144.46 million oz. Is this truth or fictional numbers? Who knows, but that is what they reported.

The paper silver ETF SLV shows in ounces of silver in trust at 312,823,227.900
or 9,729.89 tons in the trust. Really?

Eric Sprott silver fund (PSLV) holds within the trust 32,878,296 ounces of silver
http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott ... set-value/

The London Gold Bullion Market according to the report below trades all the annual production of silver every 6.2 days!
http://www.thecityuk.com/assets/Uploads ... s-2009.pdf

So, this well oiled machine. Paper silver is created and traded at a whim and the physical silver appears to be flapping in the breeze with price manipulation that has been proven over and over and even talked about now openly well at least on Russian TV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB_aZo5emio and well on CNBC http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONazcIRL5L0

The price manipulation will absolutely end the moment we hit the buying tipping point when demand significantly outstrips both inventory and supply. We're not there yet. However, as your data note, it will take very little to tip it over. All it will take is loss of confidence in fiat, which can happen literally overnight.

If dimes and quarters alone were 90% silver rather than cu/ni, the silver used since 1965 would total nearly 19 BILLION troy oz, having sucked up the available supply plus put silver in everyone's pockets. The conversion of US coinage from silver dumped huge amounts of silver into inventory. >500,000,000 oz were taken up just due to the 64 JFK half dollar alone.

Clearly, a relatively small increase in per capita usage would drive the price sky-high and blow the paper manipulation out of the water.

I see that you and I visit the same websites. Since I've decided to go all in on silver four months ago, I've been trying to absorb every piece of data like a sponge. When I watched your first vid a while back I was very surprised, although it made sense, when it was mentioned that most silver even before it is mined is contracted out to someone. Once the trigger is pulled, and I believe there are many possible triggers, this is going to rock the economy. I'm starting to think that the reason why there are still so many gold commercials on TV and radio is so people don't notice anything about silver. When you have somebody like Glenn Beck pushing gold and hundreds and thousands of his zombies gobbling up what he says, they are not going to listen to somebody else talking to them about silver. Could you imagine what kind of inventory shortages would start to happen if Beck started to sound the alarm about silver and 5% to 20% of his viewers drop only $1000 each on silver? That would be huge! Prior to the SHTF you will see some people with serious money go all in and drop 50 to 100k multiple times on online websites trying to gobble up as much as they can. Can you imagine what would happen in only 250 people with big money dropped $100k for silver in one week? Those are the smart ones and they probably already have this plan in place. The dumb ones are the ones who actually think they will get physical silver out of the COMEX. I'm starting to think that silver will not be pushed through the roof this year BUT I am expecting quite a few things to be pushed through after the election. It can be anything from the JPMorgan copper ETF to finally happen to God knows what. Once people also learn about the recent silver mines being nationalized...I can go on and on. Unfortunately the zombies are too concerned with the junk food politics of pro-life this, Obamacare that, and some old WWII vet wasn't allowed to raise a flag in his neighborhood. And during this time, they are dumb to the fact that 17 million dollars disappeared in one scandal, 220 million gone in another. Sorry! I don't mean to take this in to another direction but I think you get the point. We are going to have silver shortages and it will happen sooner rather than later. I definitely don't think that we will ever run out of silver but you wont be able to get 1 oz for these prices in a few years.

Oh and one more thing, you can not tell me that if Obama is elected again there will not be at least two to three more quantitative easings which in my opinion means silver will be at a all time high around 2016. If I was the HR Recruiter at APMEX and Obama was reelected, I'd hire at least 20 more people.

I don't think that there really is a physical shortage of silver, because silver investment is not really silver usage. It is really mini warehousing/stockpiling. If/when industrial demand outstrips production, then we will have a true shortage.

CtrlAltBernanke wrote:Oh and one more thing, you can not tell me that if Obama is elected again there will not be at least two to three more quantitative easings which in my opinion means silver will be at a all time high around 2016. If I was the HR Recruiter at APMEX and Obama was reelected, I'd hire at least 20 more people.

QE3 in September, right before the election?
http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-qe3 ... omc-2012-7

Off topic a bit: One lady at work today said,"I don't want to vote for either, Romney or Obama, but at least Romney respects the Constitution."
My opinion is that it won't even be close come mid-October. FORWARD COMRADES