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SILVER UP BIG TODAY!!! Up $1.17 to $28.30. IMHO, the correction may have ended after a consolidation at the $26-$27 level. $35 SILVER by Christmas???

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/11 ... oblem.html

Monday, November 29, 2010
The Comex May Have A Problem...

Note: a commentor pointed out that tomorrow is first notice. I made an error in reading the product calendar on the CME website, which can be found HERE. My bad. The analysis below is still relevant, as I bet there was not a lot of liquidation today. We'll find out for sure tomorrow. Thanks to the reader who pointed out my mistake.

I have to allow for the typical accounting revisions that the Comex sometimes makes a day later. BUT, right now based on the o/i for gold and silver, the Comex is potentially insolvent.

Friday being the day before first notice, anyone with an account not funded to take delivery of a long position has to either sell or be liquidated by the end of last Friday's access session. I know this because I had a silver position liquidated a few years ago when I forgot what day it was lol. Any open long positions as of this morning are capable of taking delivery of gold and silver.

With that said, the open gold o/i as of this morning is 59,412 contracts. This translates into 5.9 million ounces. The Comex gold inventory shows only 2.6 million ounces of gold registered and approved for delivery. There is a total of 11.4mm ounces.

In silver, there are 17,208 open contracts. This translates into 86 million ounces. The Comex reports 48.5 million ounces available and approved for delivery, 107.2 million total ounces.

What does this mean, in the context of the cartel being unable to force liqidate a majority of the open gold/silver positions? Everyone reading this can use their imagination and I'm not willing to predict how this will unfold, but right now the Comex has a problem.

Choo Choo!!!

Charge!!

Backwardation in place at various points today... Severe backwardation would solve the Crimex problem in short order!

Don't want to be the contrarian(well, actually I do); but these posts are usually made preceding a silver correction. Nothing against any of you here, I've observed it on many forums.
I have a small position in HL puts that I bought today near the end of the the trading day today. The strike price was $10 and I'll break even on the purchase when the stock gets around $9.30.

Disclosure: Stateofmind owns a very small position in HL puts, and he is "playing with the house's money" from some money he made by getting very lucky. He honestly has no idea where silver will go, but long term(think five years) he believes it will be up. Short term he's betting it will fall back down to $26ish. Monday we will close with a relatively large loss(3+%), or a down day of $0.88.

stateofmind wrote:Don't want to be the contrarian(well, actually I do); but these posts are usually made preceding a silver correction. Nothing against any of you here, I've observed it on many forums.

With all the technology available to show you the same chart so many different ways, and with all the easily and readily available facts regarding the market, money, economy, and other variables, you have actually decided to ignore these technical and fundamental indicators to help you to trade. Instead, you have chosen to rely upon forum posts as your market indicator. Not just any forum, mind you, but a forum which is populated by many intelligent and experienced people, sharing additional knowledge that you do not have, regarding and centered upon the very market which you are wanting to successfully trade.

I've got to ask you, do you feel that the majority of the membership here is not so bright? Misinformed? Manipulative? or barren of thoughtful enterprise? I think you must. Why else would you feel it so necessary to align yourself to the opposite side of so many people's opinions. I'm not saying that anyone, yourself included, is right or wrong about the market, but I do take exception to someone consistently being a contrarian to the expressed ideas of notable and distinguished members sharing their responses to action within the market to which we all are involved.

What is your intent in making these posts? They are amusing, if nothing else.

IMHO, the correction in SILVER has been completed. SILVER tried to hold $27, but could not and went down to as low as $25. We have been rebounding from that correction and will continue higher until we are overbought again in this secular bull market. Since the economy added fuel to the PM fire yesterday with a gloomy unemployment report, I see SILVER well over $30 now that it has broken to the upside past the nominal high at $29.30. It would not surprise me that $30 could be reached on Monday. My guess for this short term leg up is for SILVER to reach $33+ before some profit taking ensues; that would be about a 20% rise from the $27 consolidation level.

The pattern of intermediate term higher highs and higher lows is very constructive and very bullish for SILVER. I'm looking for the Hunt Brothers $51 SILVER to be surpassed sometime by the end of the first quarter of 2011.

It's gone up 10 bucks a year for the last two. I think we may be at $40 this time next year.

Just a guess unless the monetary system implodes rather than staying inflated like it has since QE1

They are trying to last out the hundred year model. Then, new world currency.

Sooner? Who knows.

0CD

Market Harmony wrote:

stateofmind wrote:Don't want to be the contrarian(well, actually I do); but these posts are usually made preceding a silver correction. Nothing against any of you here, I've observed it on many forums.

With all the technology available to show you the same chart so many different ways, and with all the easily and readily available facts regarding the market, money, economy, and other variables, you have actually decided to ignore these technical and fundamental indicators to help you to trade. Instead, you have chosen to rely upon forum posts as your market indicator. Not just any forum, mind you, but a forum which is populated by many intelligent and experienced people, sharing additional knowledge that you do not have, regarding and centered upon the very market which you are wanting to successfully trade.

I've got to ask you, do you feel that the majority of the membership here is not so bright? Misinformed? Manipulative? or barren of thoughtful enterprise? I think you must. Why else would you feel it so necessary to align yourself to the opposite side of so many people's opinions. I'm not saying that anyone, yourself included, is right or wrong about the market, but I do take exception to someone consistently being a contrarian to the expressed ideas of notable and distinguished members sharing their responses to action within the market to which we all are involved.

What is your intent in making these posts? They are amusing, if nothing else.

It sound's as if someone got pewter shavings in their Cheerio's yesterday morning.
There are multitude of problems with this response.

1. I have repeatedly stated that I believe the long term trend for silver is up.
2. I am not just relying upon posts to make a decision. The RSI of SLV is approaching 70 and the Force Index is growing positive just like it was in the previous correction. Also, we are seeing a shooting star candlestick pattern which signals a correction.Again, my words were bent around just like they had been in the "Silver - Time to Sell" post; the one where I predicted the previous correction. Just because I had not stated my reasons for why I am bearish, does not mean that I am relying upon forum posts.
3. This forum has many smart people, yet it is very easy to get caught up in hysteria. If anyone is a member there, Kitco members make cakes and have parties to celebrate the new highs of silver, while members here also are cheering silver higher.
4. I am not constantly a contrarian. Sometimes the general consensus is correct.
5. I own silver in physical form, and as I said in my previous post I am only betting on a short term retreat of silver, thus my reason for trading in paper, and why I did not post that I had sold all of my stack.
6. Many of the "notable and distinguished" members were completely wrong about the correction.
7. My intent is the same as the previous posts by other members which state their opinion on silver.

Here's a chart:

Another chart to show the power of the Force Index to predict corrections:

It's good for any community to have some contrarians to avoid groupthink. I have found useful thoughts and info from both MH and SOM. Good rule of thumb not to take forum discussions too personally. (Easy to say, hard to do.) I don't see silver up/down as a topic worth fighting for. Personally I like to see it go down because (1) I can get it cheaper, and my interest is buy low and never sell unless necessary, and (2) it means the US dollar and thus the nation is still holding out. But if it goes up, that's always to be expected long-term anyway.

Some thoughts of mine are highlighted in red below:

stateofmind wrote:It sound's as if someone got pewter shavings in their Cheerio's yesterday morning. believe it or not, my intent was to bring you some light
There are multitude of problems with this response.

1. I have repeatedly stated that I believe the long term trend for silver is up.
2. I am not just relying upon posts to make a decision. The RSI of SLV is approaching 70 and the Force Index is growing positive just like it was in the previous correction. Also, we are seeing a shooting star candlestick pattern which signals a correction.Again, my words were bent around just like they had been in the "Silver - Time to Sell" post; the one where I predicted the previous correction. Just because I had not stated my reasons for why I am bearish, does not mean that I am relying upon forum posts. Force indicators and candlestick patterns will not help you to trade. You are looking for bearish reversal signals within a bullish chart. What you need to be doing is fundamental research as to WHY we are in a bull market, and then determine what factors could possibly work against that fundamental base to the detriment of the price action. Those bits of info will help you to spot a reversal. Otherwise, you are fighting the tide.
3. This forum has many smart people, yet it is very easy to get caught up in hysteria. If anyone is a member there, Kitco members make cakes and have parties to celebrate the new highs of silver, while members here also are cheering silver higher. I have never seen hysteria from any of the members here, and I've been around for quite some time
4. I am not constantly a contrarian. Sometimes the general consensus is correct. You must always be right, then, if you can determine when to fight the crowd and when to run with it
5. I own silver in physical form, and as I said in my previous post I am only betting on a short term retreat of silver, thus my reason for trading in paper, and why I did not post that I had sold all of my stack. You have been unclear on your positions from the very beginning, and when you are called out on your posts, you always redact and have to adjust your position so as to conform to the response to your initial post. You need to be clear in your posts
6. Many of the "notable and distinguished" members were completely wrong about the correction. huh? Many people claimed they were looking for a pullback so they could add to their stack. I've found that the majority of members here have been spot on in their assessment of the metals market. You have been a counterparty to their statements in many ways
7. My intent is the same as the previous posts by other members which state their opinion on silver. time has a way of figuring these things out

SOM, I'm not picking a fight with you. Believe it or not, I'm actually trying to help you out on trading, and in turn helping others in their own endeavors. We are a diverse group and each one of us has something to offer to the community of realcent members. I never expect anyone to agree with me, and neither should you. But if you clearly state your position, then people are going to understand where you are coming from. When you make a statement like. "Don't want to be the contrarian(well, actually I do); but these posts are usually made preceding a silver correction. Nothing against any of you here, I've observed it on many forums," then in MY opinion, you are acting like a jerk and disrespecting many members.

I don't see what's so offensive about SOM's opinions.

MH, you know I love you man, but a contrarian is a good thing. When it get's too exciting and Oprah is having silver parties then it's time to lighten the stack. When the all night infomercials start hocking silver, it's time to think about selling.

What's offensive is this ridiculous silver run up. I hope SOM is right. I also don't see what's so exciting about the silver prices. 2 dollars for a dime? I hated paying 10X face. I would imagine most of us here would like to have more time to accumulate. I'd love to see silver break through a bottom support level, shake them damn trees man. At 10-15 I'll back the truck up for the last time.

Thogey wrote:I don't see what's so offensive about SOM's opinions.

MH, you know I love you man, but a contrarian is a good thing. When it get's too exciting and Oprah is having silver parties then it's time to lighten the stack. When the all night infomercials start hocking silver, it's time to think about selling.

What's offensive is this ridiculous silver run up. I hope SOM is right. I also don't see what's so exciting about the silver prices. 2 dollars for a dime? I hated paying 10X face. I would imagine most of us here would like to have more time to accumulate. I'd love to see silver break through a bottom support level, shake them damn trees man. At 10-15 I'll back the truck up for the last time.

As will I.

You guys that want a pullback, in order to "back up the truck" HAD your chance already. The writing has been on the walls for years! (if you procrastinated before, nothing is likely to change this time around). And remember, a large part of the silver run-up is the dollar decline (and all global fiat currencies), so there is more than one factor at work here contributing to price rise.

beauanderos wrote:You guys that want a pullback, in order to "back up the truck" HAD your chance already. The writing has been on the walls for years! (if you procrastinated before, nothing is likely to change this time around). And remember, a large part of the silver run-up is the dollar decline (and all global fiat currencies), so there is more than one factor at work here contributing to price rise.

You are a bitter old man, shouldn't you be outside yelling at neighborhood kids or somthing?

stateofmind wrote:Don't want to be the contrarian(well, actually I do); but these posts are usually made preceding a silver correction.[/color][/b]

There's no doubt you're a bright kid, but you would do well by doing more studying. I thinking you're confusing cause and effect here. The post trends you refer to could just as easily be read as having been made succeeding large run-ups, and if you do the research, this holds true for a higher % of the time than your postulation does. Regardless, I'm glad you're not shorting SLV again, the short term prospects for continued price increases are quite good. When you get some more years under your belt, you'll learn that it's a lot better to be happy than right. (Not to mention more profitable in cases like this as well!)

I thought we were the contrarians. For me any extra cash is converted to silver within the day. I am more concerned about it getting more expensive that paying too much. It not the technicals I watch but the fundamentals. We had this discussion about a pull back when silver was 23.00/oz. Did not happen, at least yet. Again, I continue to buy.

coppertone wrote: For me any extra cash is converted to silver within the day.

Exactly!

beauanderos wrote:

coppertone wrote: For me any extra cash is converted to silver within the day.

Exactly!

Even if you pay spot for silver, in the long run it's better than letting money sit. Or buying some useless plastic crap that breaks within a year, and is worth half the price you paid for it when you bought it. That's my reasons for buying silver. Either I let the money sit in the bank, and get a little of a return, buy some plastic crap, or put it in silver, and possible reap the fortunes if it were to hit say $60 an ounce.

LOL lovely isn't it? I've sold approx 15K in silver in the last month or so to finance another property. always happens! Where is my $15 silver coming from next yr?

$29.90!

Thogey wrote:

beauanderos wrote:You guys that want a pullback, in order to "back up the truck" HAD your chance already. The writing has been on the walls for years! (if you procrastinated before, nothing is likely to change this time around). And remember, a large part of the silver run-up is the dollar decline (and all global fiat currencies), so there is more than one factor at work here contributing to price rise.

You are a bitter old man, shouldn't you be outside yelling at neighborhood kids or somthing?

That was the laugh of the night! LOL

30 DOLLAR SILVER! Wow, I sold some silver too cheap but I still got a nice gleaming stash. This Christmas is going to be fun as I get to gloat about the silver price. I have given silver coins as gifts for the last couple years. Some recipients of these gifts told me not to buy silver. I wonder what they will say now?