Realcent.org

been up since 0300, reading the financial wires from around the globe, looking at charts, checking auction sites, the whole works, and i cant point to any one thing but i just got this gut level feeling, that silver's going to get slammed back down to the $25-27 area, basis that charade we call the "board".

dont ask me why, i hope i'm wrong, dont trade off my gut instinct, and i do got skin in the game, though i wont go anywhere paper silver investments....its just a feeling. And thru bitter experience, i've learned i never fade my gut instinct.

want to know what "did it"?...couple things, first i was going thru the "list" of futures, everything ...that includes charts, and certain spreads, metals, of course, petrol, grains, the dollar, the euro, tropicals...everything seems to be trading deflationary, which would fly in the face of conventional wisdom, but when you have key military leaders acting like teenagers on viagra, NOTHING these days is "conventional"....disgraceful. Then the only Congressman who's a truth teller with balls, Ron Paul, said there is zero chance of any REAL legislation besides bailing wire and duct tape to deal with the branded, "fiscal cliff"...then a walk thru auction sites, and it seems to me, the "scared" money has been "reaching"...and now they are OUT of the market. Anytime guys seem to be reaching, and blowing up the premium, thats never a good sign.

and what is ALWAYS at the back of my mind....always...... is the M1 and M2 monetary 'velocity' charts. Monetary velocity is the rate that REAL FRN's in circ, course thru the 'system'...this chart, and the Baltic Dry Index (shipping) charts are downright scary, they're been going down almost vertically, meaning, little global trade a happening, stuff shipped, and it might mean folks NEED FRN's, and would value FRN's over Ag.....(and Au by default)

and with Europe scripting out their own brand of dysfunction in the mix, i get a feeling its going to be a very cold winter. Just my gut, hope i'm wrong.
neil

I've seen a few reports that are supporting that.

Isn't Pres Obama speaking today?

Rodebaugh wrote:Isn't Pres Obama speaking today?

Did he ever stop? Other than to tee off. He certainly does not listen or think much. Too busy talking.

I was thinking with the debt ceiling needing to be raised, Obummer's (continued) endless spending now that he is back in and has another blank check, gridlock in congress, etc. we it should be supportive for PM's but who goes by fundamentals anymore? If there is even an ounce of truth to Chase banks free reign on shorting the silver market to protect their position then who would know, really?? One things for sure, we are still spending our way down the path of destruction and nothing is going to change there near term. The dollar may be the fastest horse in the glue factor for now but in the end it's going to still get the bullet. If PM's go down, so be it. I still feel better about having most of our savings in PM's than cash in the bank right now!

Ag at $25????? Back up the truck! Rack up the credit cards! Mortgage every asset! Buy! Buy! Buy! LOL!

Love the insights here. I'm left with the feeling of just walking off a roller coaster. They stretch you out and grind you up.It appears to be going one way then dashed back. You gained nothing for the ride,until you realize you lost all your change and wallet too! Don't be worried about PM shortages,it is the lack of paper dollars that doom us,maybe.

My gut is telling me that we're going to see $35 again before we see $25 again.

If it does go down see it as an opportunity to buy more. I won't let manipulation of the market hinder my long term love of precious metals

goodcents wrote:If it does go down see it as an opportunity to buy more. I won't let manipulation of the market hinder my long term love of precious metals

Bingo!

my gut tells me....


BURP....


ah, never mind

beauanderos wrote:my gut tells me....


BURP....


ah, never mind

I remember looking at the long term Baltic index a few weeks back and having the same thoughts as Neil. I just can't find anything to be bullish about in the general economy.

shinnosuke wrote:

goodcents wrote:If it does go down see it as an opportunity to buy more. I won't let manipulation of the market hinder my long term love of precious metals

Bingo!

True that! I'm in it to win it for PM's!

goodcents wrote:If it does go down see it as an opportunity to buy more. I won't let manipulation of the market hinder my long term love of precious metals

amen. , my posting wasnt trying to talk the market down, or to spurn a "love" for silver. let me state this, i don't "love" silver, i dont "hate" it either. i don't trade it, to me, its not an investment, as i've stated many times, TO ME, its currency insurance. If i find that i get to "loving" it...this is just how i feel, i'm in grave trouble, because as is said, "the love of money is the root of all evil". This is a timeless truth.

Every trouble we find ourselves in today, nationally, globally, is because the "love of money" has overtaken some people, and corrupted many hearts and most definitely institutions, we used to trust.

Just the way silver is trading, in this period feels waterlogged. IF, silver goes south, say to the 25-27 area, and you HAVE the FRN's to amp your stack? Go for it, of course thats a prudent and wise decision. My take is that MAYBE, a lot of folks DONT have the FRN's, that why i bought up M1 velocity. Sure, if you're trading Comex silver or ETF's, yes, you will be watching every tick on the board. It's an investment, you want to buy low and sell high, its understandable. i've been there, biting my nails, and watching the ticker. Its not the place i want to be, because you get 'married' to a position, and in my judgement that clouds your thinking. (not you, just in general)

one fails to be dispassionate over a trade, because they might get emotionally involved. long term? i think its going to $70, then $130, then $250 plus. But in this short term period? i believe its treading water, with a downward bias.

what i'm about to write, might seem to veer off my OP, but i dont think it does. Since Jan of this year, i been hearing all sorts of rumblings about something 'big' in the works, some sources reliable, others wearing foil, Last night,i noticed this seemingly amped up talk of secession, and i think its a set up, let me explain.

in all my fifty plus years, i've never seen an election cycle so ugly. There are people that loathe POTUS with a white hot passion, yet it seemed the Republican party, bent over backwards to find the weakest candidate, who ran a truly incoherent campaign. the guy never really connected with the people, his off the cuff remarks, his TRYING to relate to folks were a disaster. Steve Straight, his campaign manager was a disaster. Any Republican with their poo poo together could have whupped a President who's "fav/unfav's" were so bad, unemployment so bad....yet, it didnt happen, Romney lost, and not a few days later, we read of a (supposedly) grass roots led movement by 36 states to seceed from the nation, by petition....and the funny thing is this, one, it appears highly organized...DAYS after the election.

Thats unusual, because these petitions are not written by magic marker on construction paper, they're very well produced. Money has to be behind such an effort. It doesnt pass the smell test, meaning i believe POSSIBLY, its all a set up. You have a large number of Americans white hot mad, most armed. The economic climate is just toxic, times are hard, people are hurting, and full of fear. Fear is the tool of choice, for those who have ulterior motives.With the gathering meme of seccesion, put forward in the MSM, a group of pissed off people, who failed to elect their guy, might see another opening. Its an "opening", that would be a course towards personal ruin.

Now what really worrys the PTB, is a restive, angry group of folks who just happen to own 350 million plus firearms, believe me, dot mil doesnt like that. They dont want to have to deal with that reality, so how would you disarm this populace? Push the ball of secession down the hill, see if it gathers steam, grows teeth, and people "get real", and start TRYING to "taking America back", which is exacly what dot mil wants, because THEN they can proclaim a national emergency, declare martial law, constrict movement and speech, and start confiscating "things". If you think that sounds far fetched, need i remind you all of the flurry of "executive orders" passed this and last year, legally giving them the powers to do this, confiscate "things", and these things MIGHT just be PM's as well as firearms.

I'm not saying this is a slam dunk, gonna happen thing, but watch real careful, if the MSM starts headlining, more than they have been, this growing "grass roots" clamor for secession from the union, and the ordinary joe that hoorahs all this? doesnt really now what he or she is in for. Dot mil will move and move very quickly to "protect and defend the Constitution". My feeling is, thats its all a set up, all the lead you stacked, all the PM's you stacked, suddenly made illegal by executive order....and if you dont "comply"? You never want to write a check, your ass cant cash...you feel me?

thats where it gets interesting. i sure do hope i'm wrong, but be hyper aware, and dont let your emotions get the best of you, if you were crushed in spirit by this latest election, anger is useless, lets just get a better candidate for 2016, and be cool.

IdahoCopper wrote:Re: Now MANY states want to secede from U.S. viewtopic.php?f=23&t=19391
Postby IdahoCopper » Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:04 am
The media is too accommodating with their reporting. There is something suspicious underfoot here with this topic. My bet is that sooner, rather than later, some act of terror will happen and the word "secessionists" will become synonymous with "terrorists".

Then we will know America-as-we-know-it (AAWKI) has entered its "End Times", and its time for a 1930's Germany exit, ASAP.

I agreed with Neil yesterday.

neilgin1 wrote: lets just get a better candidate for 2016, and be cool.

We will never make it to 2016.

NDFarmer wrote:

neilgin1 wrote: lets just get a better candidate for 2016, and be cool.

We will never make it to 2016.

None of us know whether we'll make it to the next hour, but if we keep tearing and devouring one another, you might be right.

but in other countries, with such an ugly election cycle we just witnessed, there'd be people dead. But thats THEM, we're the United States of America, freedom's messy, and your "side" doesnt always "win"...so get a better candidate next cycle.

When we start "hating" the "loyal opposition", just coz we dont agree with them, then we become just another ordinary nation.

Let's not do that...i didnt mean this thread to go political, but.....i still think silver's trading lower, that was my MAIN point.

five days later----------i think i might be wrong, tell you why.

even though Comex is a cooked game......."they" cant move it down, thats first. Second, i just read the exchange is cutting margins. what that really MEANS, i dont know. Maybe draw in suckers, who knows these days.

i know some guys think i'm wrong in watching Ebay as an indicator, but the reason i do, is this platform is the regular guys like us.

i primarily watch US silver coin rolls, and i dont know which idiot grandsons need to pay off visa bills or to stand outside wal mart on Thursday night, but i'm watching a whole mass of quality rolls hitting the market. i'd list them, but its too much work.

Now, if i had the free 10-20 k i need, nobody else would be getting these rolls, so if i'm thinking like this, then.........

its true a lot of these rolls have a nusimatic premium built in, but remember this is an asset class, and viewed by MANY as a SAFE asset class......so if it charts like bull market, trades like a bull market...then....it is.

who knows WHAT is really going on these days....i do know this, i got a 14 pound turkey sitting in a bucket of brine for Thanksgiving....and i know silver is still very much in a long term bull market.