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SILVER is finally moving today. Perhaps this is the liftoff of JohnFly's prediction that we will be astounded.

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I'll take it. It's been a long month watching it go down, down, down...

It cant go todamoon yet. I havent stacked enough!!

I do believe we are rapidly approaching a point where physical availablity is (will be) overwhelmed by demand, but it's never reliable to pick (or trust someone else to do so) the precise timing of that next big rise. At best I think we can come within a 3-5 year window, and we're in the middle of what I think that time window should be, right now.

TPTB will be doing everything to keep fiat king and make metal look bad, which adds a further unpredictabilty to this.

I'm hopeful, still buying physical (as I will be, as I will only keep enough fiat around to get me through a crisis). I won't get real excited again until we have multi-week closes over $36 silver and $1800 gold.

68Camaro wrote: I won't get real excited again until we have multi-week closes over $36 silver and $1800 gold.

Good analyis, Rich... I always knew you had a good head on your shoulders (even if the hair is turning grey )

as for me... I won't get real excited again until we have multi-week closes over $50 silver and $2100 gold

beauanderos wrote:

68Camaro wrote: I won't get real excited again until we have multi-week closes over $36 silver and $1800 gold.

Good analyis, Rich... I always knew you had a good head on your shoulders (even if the hair is turning grey )

as for me... I won't get real excited again until we have multi-week closes over $50 silver and $2100 gold

Well, there is a difference between real and real . I will be real excited again at $50 silver and $2100 gold....

I'm leery of metals rallies when they are so closely tied to everything else moving to the upside. False flag.

America seems fat, happy, and perfectly contented with the fiscal crisis having been "solved". The dow is up 250, the President's on vacation again...tell me why anyone is going to short stocks to buy non-income producing physical in any great rush.

No real rally until stocks show signs of collapse.

beauanderos wrote:as for me... I won't get real excited again until we have multi-week closes over $50 silver and $2100 gold

I am with you, Beau.

Time to buy an asset class is when it's out of favor. Without question, PMs are out of favor right now. While I'm not the biggest player here, I've been incrementally buying since last summer. I do believe when PMs become more in favor, the move will be astounding from current levels.

Should have bought jet fuel stock. Obama sure knows how to burn through thousands of gallons of it. He could have stayed in Hawaii and skyped.

Don't get me wrong here...aggressively accumulate, hell yes. And perhaps a healthier trading range from what we've seen lately.

I just won't be able to say the "R" word til we've passed 40/42

I think this is a VERY SLOW moving train wreck. We shouldn't expect a major event or permanent spike in prices ---- all this economic majic will take a LONG time to play out ---- the cars will all fall off the rails in time, but it will take a long time. The momentum will pull every car off into the abyss, but VERY slowly. The central banks and finance institutions and governements and multi-national conglomerates and drug cartels all have a huge interest in keeping the wreck moving as slowly as possible, and they have more methods at their command than we can imagine ---- its all fiat, and future debt, and numbers in the trillions, and they can keep this wreck moving slowly forward for a LONG time. I buy a little every week, whether the price is up or down, a little every week. The cars will all come off the track, but it will take longer than any of us believe.

It's the regular up a buck move that we've been seeing pretty often lately. Silver seesaws like the stock market, makes a great paper play. For instance, up in September, down in October, up in November, down in December.

Country wrote:SILVER is finally moving today. Perhaps this is the liftoff of JohnFly's prediction that we will be astounded.

68Camaro wrote:I do believe we are rapidly approaching a point where physical availablity is (will be) overwhelmed by demand, but it's never reliable to pick (or trust someone else to do so) the precise timing of that next big rise. At best I think we can come within a 3-5 year window, and we're in the middle of what I think that time window should be, right now.

TPTB will be doing everything to keep fiat king and make metal look bad, which adds a further unpredictabilty to this.

I'm hopeful, still buying physical (as I will be, as I will only keep enough fiat around to get me through a crisis). I won't get real excited again until we have multi-week closes over $36 silver and $1800 gold.

I believe that we saw the first phase of the "to the moon" moment back when silver made new highs at $22 and then quickly ran to just under $50. That part was just the beginning. And some would argue that it actually began when Buffet sold at $8 and it continued on to $22ish before retracing to $8ish... until we see some more greater than 50% of high price retracements, then I think we are simply in a continuation of the "to the moon" phase from $22 onwards.

Physical supply is a silly thing still. Availability at lower prices is not decreasing as much as some might expect. It is still readily available at current lows. I could have placed an order for several thousand ounces (if required) at the recent lows from several sources. Joe Public as well as Joe Speculator were selling silver more than they were buying (gold was just the opposite) recently. Until we come to a situation where there are no sellers close to or at spot, then physical silver is not in a supply deficit. However, and this is supremely important, it will not take much to change this dynamic. If widespread sentiment towards silver becomes overtly bullish, supply will dry up quickly. The average coin shop has less than 1000 ounces on hand. Premiums paid for physical silver will increase very quickly. Dealers will soon learn that they will not be able to acquire silver for spot or less.

Until we see Silver Eagles trade regularly for spot then we will continue to be in the "to the moon" phase. It might take $100 silver or more for this to happen. And even then, silver could continue to run to eye bulging new highs.

Happy New Year

so much for all that exuberance, huh?

NHsorter wrote:so much for all that exuberance, huh?

Time to buy

beauanderos wrote:

NHsorter wrote:so much for all that exuberance, huh?

Time to buy

Buy when you're crying, sell when you're smiling

rainsonme wrote:I think this is a VERY SLOW moving train wreck. We shouldn't expect a major event or permanent spike in prices ---- all this economic majic will take a LONG time to play out ---- the cars will all fall off the rails in time, but it will take a long time. The momentum will pull every car off into the abyss, but VERY slowly. The central banks and finance institutions and governements and multi-national conglomerates and drug cartels all have a huge interest in keeping the wreck moving as slowly as possible, and they have more methods at their command than we can imagine ---- its all fiat, and future debt, and numbers in the trillions, and they can keep this wreck moving slowly forward for a LONG time. I buy a little every week, whether the price is up or down, a little every week. The cars will all come off the track, but it will take longer than any of us believe.

John Maynard Keynes is attributed with saying, "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."
This only goes to show that sometimes a man with absolutely horrible theories can be right on some things.

To the moon?? Did you speak too soon?

Agree with rainsonme with the caveat that it has arguably been at least 10 years underway already and more like 40 to 80 years. So we're well into this and we're at the point where when it finally goes it will end so fast there will be no time to react or change your course. If you're not prepped at the time - too bad so sad.

Well, I agree with Rainsonme too. And I agree with 68Camaro that debt in a fiat currency world has been going on for 50 years. But what has been going on for the past 5 years is absolutely without paralell. There were BrettinWood agreements, Basil accords, and a host of other formal and informal arrangements, that kept the fiat system in some sort of balance until 5 years ago. Even when the fed was printing fiat money, every fiat dollar was tied to a debt instrument. But no more. For the past 5 years, the fed prints money with no bond associated; the fed buys bonds; the US generates debt at numbers that no one understands ---- and the Yen and the Euro are WORSE. And no one knows if the Yuan is worse or not, and that IS worse. The monetary world has shifted in the past 5 years; they might have been able to keep the train on the tracks in the fiat world prior to 2008, we'll never know, but what is happening now is an absolute out of control guarenteed train wreck ---- but it is still going to take a long long time to play out. the dollar is still the best currency in the world. If i offered you $10,000 paid in either Yen, euro, or dollars, I think most of us would take dollars. And for delivery today, I'd take the dollars in cash over the equivealnt in gold or silver, so I could easily decide how much i wanted to convert to gold or silver. BUT if we were offered a lock-box that could not be opened for 10 years, filled with $10,000 worth of Yen, Euro, dollars, gold or silver, I bet most everyone on and off this board would select the gold or silver. The train is out of control, and all the cars will fall off the track one by one, but it will still take longer than we expect. Maybe we should revisit the train wreck thread every January 2nd, just to remind ourselves where we are in the wreck process.