Realcent.org

Hi all-

Just a rambling post-

Anyone that has been on this site a long time, and can remember back when this site was on forumco, with the red and blue background , knows I was there and I have been 110% in favor of US90% since day 1 of post 1.

I'm not an ancient investor, but for the longest time, 90% was the most basic silver you could get, it routinely sold for melt or like .15c over melt even on the big wholesalers like apmex and tulving.

Now that 90% has actually sold for significantly OVER spot, I am worried that this will become the new norm from now on-

The EXACT same thing happened with pre-33 gold on me. I was buying it at MELT (yes, melt) from my LCS as late as 2007 when it was ho-hum. But after gold broke $1000 for the first time, the premiums on all pre-33 launched (with everything else) and havent come down since....

I know that premiums on 90% silver were significantly over melt in the 70's silver boom, and around Y2k, and eventually came down, but I think we can all agree that this is NOT the same USA as the late 70's and 1999....

Any thoughts??? No wrong answers....

wags

I'm fairly new to this, but have kept a spreadsheet of all purchases since 2009. I was looking at it the other day, and longing for the days when I was buying rolls of quarters on eBay for 11x face. I had bought Morgans at the flea market for $12 and $13 each.....etc. I know many f you bought even lower, and I doubt we will ever see those prices again. I just wish I'd had more $$ to buy more.

wagsthadog wrote:I know that premiums on 90% silver were significantly over melt in the 70's silver boom

You sure about that? I heard it was the opposite.

Hi there-

Maybe? I wasnt around so I cant verify, I know that when sellers went to sell they got less then melt, but I was thinking about people who BOUGHT silver at that time. I dont think it was sold by coin shops to buyers for less than melt when people bought in the 70's-

wags

Went to two LCS this morning. 26xx at one and 23xx at the other. The clerk actually looked me in the eye with a straight face and said $26 per FV. I went back and loaded up at the other. That's absurd premium...has anyone seen it higher lately?

My weekend 20x face guy is feeling the pinch, but he said he was expecting to buy a large amount later today. I poked around a bit and found a roll of 80% Canada quarters...date range 1939-1965...and he let me have them for $4 ea

Looks like melt on them is $4.77

I might check back tomorrow to see if his purchase panned out or not. Out of work for two weeks = no cash left.

90% silver goes in swings. When the supply is "tight" it goes for over spot. When its more abundant it starts going for under melt again. In the last 7 years we have seen this pattern happen at least twice, maybe 3 times. Once we see silver hit $35-40 I believe the prices of 90% will start going under spot again.

In my opinion now is the time to trade your 90% for .999. At my local coin show yesterday I traded a bunch of 90% for silver eagles and came out great. I could actually turn around and sell the eagles for more then I could sell the 90% for. The problem he has was he didn't have any 90% but he had lots of eagles.

Like most everything, 90% has its hot streaks.


Just my 2 copper cents worth.

well i agree with adam, wags, that its cyclical. i can remember when it first went past $20 you couldn't find it for $4 over spot. i may be remembering the time wrong - i think shortly after it hit 20 it went down to 14, and then it was 14+4 premium. that was the highest i remember, and then you could get it below spot for a long time if you bought in size.

i guess adam feels the premium is rich now, so trade your 90% at a premium while you can get it for 999. so that is Adam calling a top in the premium. he may be right, or it may stay this high and go a little higher, there is no way to know. his track record shows that he is smarter than most of us, and usually figures things out before the rest of us.

it seems like every jan the premium spikes. they stop making the last year ASEs, so everyone orders the new year ASEs. The orders spike, and the supply gets interrupted. the premiums spike so everyone piles into 90% and then those premiums rise.

however, i do think there is a bigger shortage going on, and silver, especially small sized silver, is underpriced.

i think some are saying my 90% used to be worth at most melt, and now it worth melt plus a buck over, so i am going to trade for 90% that has always been worht melt plus a buck. but i look at it differently. at a buck over spot, i would still rather have dimes or halves with a US gov halmark that you can drop on your desk and listen for the telltale sound and look at the marks of circulation and not worry that there is lead or tungsten inside. Also, 140 silver dimes is a lot easier to sell or use than a 10 oz bar of 999. that is not so important now, but when silver goes from $32 to $320 the size will be important.

so wags i do agree with you that over a longer horizon - 5 years + - the u.s. gov hallmark and the fractional size will be more highly valued. in the shorter term, this spike in the premium is temporary.