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So I'm thinking about buying thousands of dollars in silver soon, but i don't want to buy it then have the price drop. So I know no one can predict the future i just want some of your opinions. I'm worried that this whole crash JP Morgan buy silver thing might be a fad and once its all over the price will come back down. I don't think JP Morgan will crash, and if it does the government will just bail them out.

My prediction is that silver will drop below 25$ an oz within a few months or less, which is making me hesitate on buying right now. I also think silver has a good chance of shooting threw the roof which makes me want to go buy as much silver as i can right now.

All in all i just want to talk about silver and get some predictions before i spend all my money on it.

if you wait for $25 you may never get in, if your truely serious about preserving wealth then price does not matter. just convert now then some more later and then again whenever reserve FRNs are available.

if you're that worried about a crash, stick to pennies. not saying it to be mean. Just a fact

Take your investment capital and divide it into four parts. Watch the daily pricing action at Kitco. Get a feel for the rhythm of price movements (the market is generally higher at open than close). Either take your first portion of money and invest now, or wait for a day when there is a modest pullback (.50 to a dollar). Then wait 3 months and repeat, until you've invested your money. Take a look at the seasonality of silver, you can usually buy it cheapest during the summer months... but by then cheaper might mean a pullback of $5 from a level of $42-43. Don't try to time the markets for quick profits by selling your bullion, invest for a lifetime and buy more on pullbacks.

Thanks for input guys! Taking all into consideration and still deciding on what I'm going to do.

@beauanderos I'm not going to try selling any bullion, I'm just worried about buying at a high point. Buying silver at 30 just seems crazy to me because i bought most of my hoard back when it was at 5-6 dollars an oz (bought most my silver when i was a kid). I think you are right though i need to wait for a few pullbacks and just go for it, i can't keep wishing i bought more at the price it used to be. Oh and I'm only 19 so I am investing in silver for the long term, i don't plan on selling any time within the next 20 years.

If you plan to hold on to whatever you invest in for 20+ years, why not think heavily about copper? Silver has been soaring recently. You hear an awful lot of commercials touting it. But copper...pennies have gone up, what, .2x face recently? Not quite leaps and bounds.

You have to ask yourself: Why am I investing? Do you want to preserve your buying power? Or are you looking to make a quick buck? If it's the former, then why not put half of your nest egg into copper? It really has no downside at all. Silver, on the other hand. Well, you said it yourself. You bought at $5/oz. What if, when that time comes, and you desperately need FRNs, silver is back down in the slums? Something to think about.

Start out slow... You don't jump in the deep end of the pool and then try and learn how to swim. You ease in. Make this forum a daily stop and read. Watch the trends and prices at Kitco.

This is some great advice as well.

beauanderos wrote:Take your investment capital and divide it into four parts. Watch the daily pricing action at Kitco. Get a feel for the rhythm of price movements (the market is generally higher at open than close). Either take your first portion of money and invest now, or wait for a day when there is a modest pullback (.50 to a dollar). Then wait 3 months and repeat, until you've invested your money. Take a look at the seasonality of silver, you can usually buy it cheapest during the summer months... but by then cheaper might mean a pullback of $5 from a level of $42-43. Don't try to time the markets for quick profits by selling your bullion, invest for a lifetime and buy more on pullbacks.

Two things:

1. Educate yourself more. Start by reading everything here and/or doing a search on older forum posts. Read up on other good sources, such as jsmineset (Jim Sinclair), kitco, treasurenet, survivalblog (use search box for silver/nickels,pennies,precious metals), agaupm.com, coinflation.com, bullionstacker and others. Other good sources (but that require more time for research) include Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff (europac.net) & his video blogs, Mark Nestmann etc.

2. Diversify your holdings. Buy a little of everything, especially if you're worried about taking a loss on a particular precious metal (silver or any other metal). If you carry, say for example, copper, silver, gold, nickel and platinum, then it's unlikely that ALL of them will go down at the same time.

I carry everything, just to be safe (hence, my username). Just my two cents.

I like the diversify idea. If you don't plan on selling for 20 years than buy bricks of nickels from the bank. No downside, no sorting and you can keep them sealed in the box till then. When you tun 40 you can sort them for fun or sell whole boxes for a big premium!

This thread baffles me. some of the same people who think silver is heading straight up, tell someone to read and wait?

It might go below its current level, but it WILL go much higher. One thing is sure in my personal opinion..... You CANNOT do wrong. Your 20 years old. Metals are very very unlikely to drop for long if they do drop. Since you have a long term stance, my personal view would be get silver now or soon if your waiting for a drop, and pick up copper and nickel later. Diversify out further later if you like. Silver has more upside then all the rest imo. Though many disagree on that. i think its going to BOOM in the future both with industrial demands, and economic concerns, being poormans gold WORLDWIDE.

Thanks for the ideas guys

@Corsair: I have been collecting copper for a few years, have about $1000 face in copper pennies now. I'm going to continue collecting copper pennies i just do it very slowly (i hand sort).

@ RxForPain: I have been buying silver slowly since i was about 6 years old (13 years), I think I'm ready for the deep end now that I'm older.

about diversifying I just have a feeling silver has the most potential right now because it is so under valued, and i currently do have copper, gold, nickel and platinum.

@treetop You have the same view about silver as i do right now. I think I'm going to wait for a slight dip then I'm going to put maybe 1/5th of my money into silver and continue doing that until I spent all of it.

Corsair wrote:If you plan to hold on to whatever you invest in for 20+ years, why not think heavily about copper? Silver has been soaring recently. You hear an awful lot of commercials touting it. But copper...pennies have gone up, what, .2x face recently? Not quite leaps and bounds.

You have to ask yourself: Why am I investing? Do you want to preserve your buying power? Or are you looking to make a quick buck? If it's the former, then why not put half of your nest egg into copper? It really has no downside at all. Silver, on the other hand. Well, you said it yourself. You bought at $5/oz. What if, when that time comes, and you desperately need FRNs, silver is back down in the slums? Something to think about.

In order to have thousands of dollars of copper, you're talking about thousands of lbs. Sorry, that's just silly for most people.

Half your nest egg? So a few tens of thousand, maybe hundreds of thouands of lbs. How many tons of copper do you want to have on hand?

It could always drop by half. Remember 2008?

I like silver, but everyone here is way too certain about its future.

HelloMeteor wrote:

Corsair wrote:If you plan to hold on to whatever you invest in for 20+ years, why not think heavily about copper? Silver has been soaring recently. You hear an awful lot of commercials touting it. But copper...pennies have gone up, what, .2x face recently? Not quite leaps and bounds.

You have to ask yourself: Why am I investing? Do you want to preserve your buying power? Or are you looking to make a quick buck? If it's the former, then why not put half of your nest egg into copper? It really has no downside at all. Silver, on the other hand. Well, you said it yourself. You bought at $5/oz. What if, when that time comes, and you desperately need FRNs, silver is back down in the slums? Something to think about.

In order to have thousands of dollars of copper, you're talking about thousands of lbs. Sorry, that's just silly for most people.

Half your nest egg? So a few tens of thousand, maybe hundreds of thouands of lbs. How many tons of copper do you want to have on hand?

As much as I can get.

HelloMeteor wrote:It could always drop by half. Remember 2008?

I like silver, but everyone here is way too certain about its future.

Good point about the 2008 drop, but it did bounce back up, I think silver might have a drop but I also think it will bounce back.

HelloMeteor wrote:It could always drop by half. Remember 2008?

I like silver, but everyone here is way too certain about its future.

I do agree it could drop, though i highly doubt by half at this point..... but long term, I see it much higher....

Ethon wrote:

HelloMeteor wrote:It could always drop by half. Remember 2008?

I like silver, but everyone here is way too certain about its future.

Good point about the 2008 drop, but it did bounce back up, I think silver might have a drop but I also think it will bounce back.

I agree. BUT, we all need to keep in mind, it's no sure thing, especially those who are just starting. People probably said the same thing back in 1980 or thereabouts. They WERE right, but it took a long time for them to be right.


And yes, if it did drop by half, I'd buy a lot of physical and probably go long on some option calls(if my online trader allowed me) to that end as well. I also think it would bounce back in roughly the time it took after the 2008 drop, or less time. But if someone buys a lot now and it goes down, they're going to feel pretty lousy, especially if they are new to this.

I just get scared by posts written by someone who doesn't have much silver who wants to put a lot of money into it after a very large run-up.

HelloMeteor wrote:

Ethon wrote:

HelloMeteor wrote:It could always drop by half. Remember 2008?

I like silver, but everyone here is way too certain about its future.

Good point about the 2008 drop, but it did bounce back up, I think silver might have a drop but I also think it will bounce back.

I agree. BUT, we all need to keep in mind, it's no sure thing, especially those who are just starting. People probably said the same thing back in 1980 or thereabouts. They WERE right, but it took a long time for them to be right.


And yes, if it did drop by half, I'd buy a lot of physical and probably go long on some option calls(if my online trader allowed me) to that end as well. I also think it would bounce back in roughly the time it took after the 2008 drop, or less time. But if someone buys a lot now and it goes down, they're going to feel pretty lousy, especially if they are new to this.

I just get scared by posts written by someone who doesn't have much silver who wants to put a lot of money into it after a very large run-up.

Yeah i would feel lousy, but even if silver dropped to 15 i would still be ahead because i bought so much silver when it was cheap.

Treetop wrote:

HelloMeteor wrote:It could always drop by half. Remember 2008?

I like silver, but everyone here is way too certain about its future.

I do agree it could drop, though i highly doubt by half at this point..... but long term, I see it much higher....

How much higher, and why?

Well obviously Ive got no idea how high.... but industrial demand is not going away. lots of new sci- fi sounding stuff like anti microbial paint, and surfaces, clothing, let alone electronics. Along with the over printed dollar. IMF all ready talking about replacing the dollar as the global reserve currency, with SDRs, many major countriess, both oil producers and buyers backing this. Just a matter of time. Im not going to lay out entirely why i think the dollar is likely to be worth much less, DYODD, but imo that is clear. Let alone many other world currencies that arent in better shape. People in china recently getting into the game let alone their government. India demand is rising, as they get a larger middle class. I find it likely PMs have a long way to go up. I also think, if Im right that investment demand will rise, that more people can invest in it, and its relation to gold is likely to go back to more historic levels, especially considering lots of it has been consumed, and still is being consumed. Im 30 years old..... So far a good chunk of the rise in silver has been mainly inflation based, until recently at least... this isnt likely to be altered soon, as far as i can tell......

Just buy it and forget about it if your time horizon is 20 years... imagine silver is $500 20 years from now. You'll pat yourself on the back if you only bought for $30. Are you going to give yourself extra pats if you bought it at $26 or $27 instead? One thing is for sure, if you don't buy it, then you'll surely be kicking yourself. Don't sweat the small stuff.

Have you thought about putting your cash into some dividend stocks? Or some thing that returns each month or quarter.

My cash has been going into rentals, two houses so far and after expence I net about 10% per year return or enough to pay my house payment.

Market Harmony wrote:Just buy it and forget about it if your time horizon is 20 years... imagine silver is $500 20 years from now. You'll pat yourself on the back if you only bought for $30. Are you going to give yourself extra pats if you bought it at $26 or $27 instead? One thing is for sure, if you don't buy it, then you'll surely be kicking yourself. Don't sweat the small stuff.

So you think silver will go up on average of 16% every year for the next 20 years.

The bull market will begin to end in about ten years. Best place to put your money then is in stocks. Get rid of the silver and buy gold as portfolio protection when the bull is dead.

stateofmind wrote:The bull market will begin to end in about ten years. Best place to put your money then is in stocks. Get rid of the silver and buy gold as portfolio protection when the bull is dead.

Why do you say the bull market is going to end in 10 years? Silver is needed for many things and that isn't going to end, It has the highest electrical conductivity of all metals, even higher than copper, it also has the highest thermal conductivity. The ratio of silver demand to silver supply is 10 to 1 if that continues i don't see why silver won't continue to go up.