Realcent.org

Ok, so I've seen a lot of discussion on here about whether we'll ever again see $25 silver, and some others are saying that "this is the big one," that this time it will run up past $50 and to the moon beyond. I've been watching the charts for a while (no experience with tech. analysis), and the thought occurred to me--will we ever even see $27 silver again? Just a random thought, but I wanted to get all your thoughts too.

JT

Not even close. I have little doubt that we'll see $40 again and then $27 again after that.

Silver is too fragile to have any straight to the moons without a huge global event.

$26-$27 is a support level that SILVER bounced from 2011-2013. It has bounced higher from this level five times during that period of time. I wouldn't be surprised to see SILVER do it again some time soon. I am hopeful that some of the bloom will come off of paper equities are pour into PM paper soon too. However, PM paper will be going into the off season as summer approaches, except for some possible surprise along the way. I would not expect higher prices until we get near the fall season.

As we all know, there is a disconnect between paper and physical. BUY the physical now, before paper prices catch up.

(how the average American sees the world right now through the MSM spin cycle)

Unemployment is falling; the housing market has not only stabilized, but is poised for better days; 0% interest rates are here to stay, along with 1% inflation; the Stock market is about to take off without you so you should be long equities and short everything else; the deficit is not to be feared; Obama's re-election is a mandate for all the social inequality that's been a drag on the economy; and wide open immigration & healthcare are paths to prosperity.

That's pretty much the drumbeat the casual (97% of the populace) observer hears, day in and day out. Why should commodities...particularly the ones unaffected by weather, be expected to outperform?

In this country at least, Sentiment is King. Remember Louis Ruykeyser's favorite Wall Street sage...Rosie Scenario?

Morsecode wrote:(how the average American sees the world right now through the MSM spin cycle)

Unemployment is falling; the housing market has not only stabilized, but is poised for better days; 0% interest rates are here to stay, along with 1% inflation; the Stock market is about to take off without you so you should be long equities and short everything else; the deficit is not to be feared; Obama's re-election is a mandate for all the social inequality that's been a drag on the economy; and wide open immigration & healthcare are paths to prosperity.

That's pretty much the drumbeat the casual (97% of the populace) observer hears, day in and day out. Why should commodities...particularly the ones unaffected by weather, be expected to outperform?

In this country at least, Sentiment is King. Remember Louis Ruykeyser's favorite Wall Street sage...Rosie Scenario?

Very true. Market is at an "all time high" and the illusion may last for a little while longer, and then the bottom falls out and the slaughter begins....

Nothing to see here. Nevermind the man behind the curtain!!

No dispute there. The crash will be all that much more brutal and shocking to the 97%.

I am shifting and have already shifted much of my "virtual" money HEAVILY into silver. Under $29 - The downside is so minimal it's tough to see a "loss scenario" as long as you look even somewhat long term.

And option premiums are decent, although nothing like they were a couple years ago.

i think it goes below 27 for the following reason. all risk assets go to beta 1 the market collapses. the strong market is strong right now and silver cannot even hold its own. imagine what happens when we have a 20% pullback in stocks. i expect silver will follow as well.

While I agree with the premise fathead is making here is why I don't see much chance of going under 27: The 20% pullback isn't happening TODAY. It is still a few months (minimum) away from happening and I would gauge it as a year out, possibly a bit more.

So when the pullback happens I would imagine silver to be substantially higher than it is now. 33, 34, 35 at a minimum. Higher wouldn't be a surprise where lower would be somewhat surprising.

I caveat this with the fact that my market timing rivals on historically bad My eventual guess as to direction has been quite good though

Depends entirely on the situation. If black swan starts with the COMEX being exposed as a defaulter prior to any large market collapse, as physical demand continues to eat into the previous stockpiles now largely expended, the complete opposite could occur.