Realcent.org

Which range for Silver makes more sense?

22 to 25 or 30 to 33?

NOTE: I didn't make it a poll as I was looking for commentary not an "a" or "b"


To me 30 to 33 makes more sense given several factors (a few off the top of my head):

- Every year there seems to be record sales of ASE's
- Premiums seem to be inching upward, not just on down-turns either, in general the premiums are higher than they were a few years ago.
- The economy is either rising again or is on the brink of destruction depending on who you speak with. Either of those would seem to make silver higher by my logic.

barrytrot wrote:- The economy is either rising again or is on the brink of destruction depending on who you speak with. Either of those would seem to make silver higher by my logic.

Maybe. A bad economy because people buy PMs in a bad economy, a good one because.... industrial use? How high really is industrial use? Is it dramatically higher now than it was in 2006 when silver was only $10 an ounce? And will it increase or decrease in the future? The so-called "gold this, silver that" websites always say how it's the second most useful commodity in the world after oil, and how once it's used, it's essentially gone forever since it can't economically be recovered, but I don't know how trustworthy that is. I heard on Coin Talk that silver is being replaced by carbon nanotubes in a lot of technologies... any thoughts on that?

none of the above.

Short term 18-22

Rodebaugh wrote:none of the above.

Short term 18-22

Doc, for real?

shinnosuke wrote:

Rodebaugh wrote:none of the above.

Short term 18-22

Doc, for real?

yes, for real.
follow the money.....and the money is sold short.

22 to 25 for now....

Let's take it from the perspective of the previous SILVER super-cycle. SILVER reached $20.92 on March 17, 2008 and fell as low as $8.80 on October 24, 2008. Now that was a 58% drop from the high.

Similarly, if the we do the same for the April 28, 2011 high of $48.70, and drop that 58%, you get a low point of $20.45. Now we fell as low as $21.99 couple days ago, which would be a drop of $26.71, or 55%, from the most recent high point. While retests of this low are surely possible, and a slightly lower $21.xx could happen, I'd say we've seen the low for this cycle. A nosedive below the swing range of this cycle has low probability IMHO. Consolidation at this level is probable, as the selling has reached capitulation stages already. However, we are nearing the dreary summer doldrums again, and must wait until early fall for any major uptick. My 2c.

Feels like lower for a while (at least I hope). That's why I'm waiting for now on buying more silver. The premiums are too high over spot. I bought more gold instead where the premiums didn't change on the way down. Hoping premiums on silver ease up over time while it finds a floor. $25 ASEs would be nice!

I think there is a disconnect between the physical and paper silver price. This current spot does not truly represent the demand on actual physical silver. Very little is available currently and high premiums. So no clue what price silver will be; it will be what those that fix the price want it to be is my thought.

I'm looking for about 19. Then it will take a while to work through the 19-21 range before someday moving back up.

http://silverdoctors.com/force-majeur-was-the-end-game-all-along-comex-will-default-in-the-next-week/

The Comex will default next week...discuss amongst yourselves.

If true it will be very intriguing to see what happens.

I never trust any site with "silver" in it's domain for my news though

Rodebaugh wrote:none of the above.

Short term 18-22

I'm no good at analyzing charts so this is more of a question.
Around July 2010 silver broke the $18.50 resistance, after that it never came back to test support at that level.
Despite the roller coaster silver has been the past few years, doesn't make sense for it to drop to $18.50 or lower?
Do charts even mean anything in a manipulated market?
I do understand there will be a separation between paper and physical though.

barrytrot wrote:If true it will be very intriguing to see what happens.

I never trust any site with "silver" in it's domain for my news though

I know, but the website is surely getting a lot of hits because of such provocative headlines. I have been buying, at a very good price, all the pre-1965 90% I want from a little shop I know in the Houston area. The metal is out there if one knows where to look.

Rodebaugh wrote:yes, for real.
follow the money.....and the money is sold short.

How short? How low would silver have to go for "the money" to get out with acceptable losses? How low for minimal losses? How low for break-even?

Inquiring minds want to know!

shinnosuke wrote:http://silverdoctors.com/force-majeur-was-the-end-game-all-along-comex-will-default-in-the-next-week/

The Comex will default next week...discuss amongst yourselves.

This is the umpteenth time that this has been predicted in the last few years. Every article seems to state how its inevitable this time and then it doesn't happen and we all move on.

Rodebaugh wrote:

shinnosuke wrote:

Rodebaugh wrote:none of the above.

Short term 18-22

Doc, for real?

yes, for real.
follow the money.....and the money is sold short.

Somebody else agrees...

http://realcent.org/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23690
http://silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-silve ... m-fri-mon/

It won't take long to find out if he's right.

With stocks at an all-time high, it makes sense to plan on a big drop. When they do, metals will most likely go along for the ride.

shinnosuke wrote:http://silverdoctors.com/force-majeur-was-the-end-game-all-along-comex-will-default-in-the-next-week/

The Comex will default next week...discuss amongst yourselves.

thats a very interesting article. i know how tepid the word "interesting" is, but i cant place another word there. Everything, every single institution, public or private, right this second is so effed up, and dysfunctional, if you told me "A=Z", my only response would be "okay".

the only move or trade these days, where i "feel good" is to be recieve silver IN HAND...that is IT.

in answer to Barrys question....all of them, from his 22 to 33, or Dod Rodee's 18 to 22, to 75....or 125.

i can tell you this, the last 7.23 toz of silver i received in hand, i paid $47 an ounce for, and i dont feel like i got screwed or jammed. Some of you might, and thats okay, thats fair, but i''ll tell you what i DO know: i wont lose money on those 7 and a quarter ounces.

I don't think we've hit the bottom of this latest dip, and I like to buy on the way down. Trouble is several dealers in my area either don't have silver or they are holding silver and not selling it because they are "into it for too much."

Seems like a lot of people are emotionally invested in silver spot at $30 and won't even entertain a lower offer. If silver falls below $20 I think a lot of them will be shocked into selling before the market falls further, which might actually provide the supply for which many of us have been searching and stop the price from falling much furter. I'm not paying $33 for a silver eagle when spot is $23, and it's not my fault the market is down. If you don't like the risk, get out of the business.

jmaii wrote:I don't think we've hit the bottom of this latest dip, and I like to buy on the way down. Trouble is several dealers in my area either don't have silver or they are holding silver and not selling it because they are "into it for too much."

Seems like a lot of people are emotionally invested in silver spot at $30 and won't even entertain a lower offer. If silver falls below $20 I think a lot of them will be shocked into selling before the market falls further, which might actually provide the supply for which many of us have been searching and stop the price from falling much furter. I'm not paying $33 for a silver eagle when spot is $23, and it's not my fault the market is down. If you don't like the risk, get out of the business.

Well said. A lot of people are emotionally invested in silver at $30 just as they were at $40 before the margin calls were raised and silver suddenly dropped to $31.10 seemingly overnight.

Each day that silver stays in the low to mid 20's people's emotional investment in $30 silver will wane. And if current prices continue for weeks to come then people will begin moving on to other forms of investment and the availability of physical silver will increase--of course this all depends on spot silver staying at it's current levels for several more weeks.

jmaii wrote: If you don't like the risk, get out of the business.

Neither are they obligated to sell their inventory at a loss. If they can source "fresh" material, then sure... they can mark it up a reasonable amount to cover paying bills. But if they sell out of what very little they can buy from the VERY few silver sellers... then why should they incur losses by selling their higher-priced-purchased stock they might have locked up in the safe?

If people think it's so easy to be an LCS and cover your overhead, then you should try it yourselves. Run a craigslist ad and see what happens. It ain't easy folks, and I'm sure the half dozen or so brick and mortar small LCS owners we have here would be the first to tell you that. They're also the first that will generally pass along a good deal for the rest of us... so don't be so quick to wish them out of the business.

beauanderos wrote:If people think it's so easy to be an LCS and cover your overhead, then you should try it yourselves. Run a craigslist ad and see what happens. It ain't easy folks

... which is why I'm not a dealer.

I completely agree that they are under no obligation to sell low, just as they don't have to buy when spot is very high. It's one thing for a shop owner to politely say he has nothing for sale, it's quite another for someone to get hostile when I give a counteroffer -- going off on a tirade about how prices are falling too much.

jmaii wrote:

beauanderos wrote:If people think it's so easy to be an LCS and cover your overhead, then you should try it yourselves. Run a craigslist ad and see what happens. It ain't easy folks

... which is why I'm not a dealer.

I completely agree that they are under no obligation to sell low, just as they don't have to buy when spot is very high. It's one thing for a shop owner to politely say he has nothing for sale, it's quite another for someone to get hostile when I give a counteroffer -- going off on a tirade about how prices are falling too much.

they're probably even touchier than we are when prices fall. We've noticed before that members seem to argue more heatedly whenever market takedowns occur. Shop owners won't entice customers back if they're snapping at them.

and actually, they do have to buy when prices are high... they have no crystal ball, so whenever a seller walks into their shop what are they going to do? Turn them away saying "nah, prices are artificially high right now, I think they're going to pull back." No, they're going to offer what to them is a fair proposal, and then try to make a reasonable margin on it. LCS can only do well if markets trend sideways or upwards with reasonable product availability. When prices are locked in a downtrend and there is a stranglehold on supply... everyone loses.

Just my own thoughts on this, but If I could pick up junk at 17X face wholesale I think it would be reasonable to ask 21X retail for it. What say our brick and mortar shop owners? Is 4X reasonable, considering your overhead? Is that high or low, or about right?

beauanderos wrote:

jmaii wrote: If you don't like the risk, get out of the business.

Neither are they obligated to sell their inventory at a loss. If they can source "fresh" material, then sure... they can mark it up a reasonable amount to cover paying bills. But if they sell out of what very little they can buy from the VERY few silver sellers... then why should they incur losses by selling their higher-priced-purchased stock they might have locked up in the safe?

If people think it's so easy to be an LCS and cover your overhead, then you should try it yourselves. Run a craigslist ad and see what happens. It ain't easy folks, and I'm sure the half dozen or so brick and mortar small LCS owners we have here would be the first to tell you that. They're also the first that will generally pass along a good deal for the rest of us... so don't be so quick to wish them out of the business.

amen, thats right...what i find amazing, is that ANYBODY gives "spot" credence.....you know what the margin is RIGHT NOW for one single "contract" of silver?....$16,000 initial margin, $12,000 maintenance....what they are telling the average investor is this, 'we dont want YOU in this market'.....am i wrong?...if i am, why is the margin to trade a 40,000 lb contract of live cattle, $1,000?...and the margin to trade a 5,000 bushel contract of corn, $2,000?....BECAUSE THEY DONT WANT US trading PM futures....how many guys here, can trade cattle, or corn?...how guys here can "stack" cattle?...you see guys, when you stack PM's, what you are saying is, "i dont BUY your bullshite anymore! i know what the GAME is...i am NOT going to be the last stupid jag off holding onto paper fiat"....THATS WHY THEY'RE DOING THIS!!!

don't ya'll get it? (i'm not talking to you Ray, you "get" it.)

RIGHT NOW...IF...you want a roll of quality 90% American silver coinage, YOU WILL BE PAYING....minimum, 26 to 27 times face ($260 to 270 for 10 dollar face value, with 7.23 toz silver in each roll, do the math) the PRICE then, is approaching $40 an ounce....thats real world. So you say, "i wont pay that!"...dont, coz i will and if i dont, believe me, there are many many other guys bidding very intensely for silver....so....there it is.

(oh Lord, please dont let this post be troll bait....keep it in its cave)

beauanderos wrote:

jmaii wrote:

beauanderos wrote:If people think it's so easy to be an LCS and cover your overhead, then you should try it yourselves. Run a craigslist ad and see what happens. It ain't easy folks

... which is why I'm not a dealer.

I completely agree that they are under no obligation to sell low, just as they don't have to buy when spot is very high. It's one thing for a shop owner to politely say he has nothing for sale, it's quite another for someone to get hostile when I give a counteroffer -- going off on a tirade about how prices are falling too much.

they're probably even touchier than we are when prices fall. We've noticed before that members seem to argue more heatedly whenever market takedowns occur. Shop owners won't entice customers back if they're snapping at them.

and actually, they do have to buy when prices are high... they have no crystal ball, so whenever a seller walks into their shop what are they going to do? Turn them away saying "nah, prices are artificially high right now, I think they're going to pull back." No, they're going to offer what to them is a fair proposal, and then try to make a reasonable margin on it. LCS can only do well if markets trend sideways or upwards with reasonable product availability. When prices are locked in a downtrend and there is a stranglehold on supply... everyone loses.

Just my own thoughts on this, but If I could pick up junk at 17X face wholesale I think it would be reasonable to ask 21X retail for it. What say our brick and mortar shop owners? Is 4X reasonable, considering your overhead? Is that high or low, or about right?

I am a seller at 22x face, buyer at 17x. I would be a seller at 21x its reasonable, but I take all stock at 20x right now and would rather keep it myself than to sell it at that price... This is for average quality, not all BU/AU. I won't pay a premium for it, but I wouldn't sell it at 22x either.

I'm a "we buy gold" store, not so much a Coin dealer. If I had a larger amount of coins coming through I might consider selling a portion at 21x. Selling in ohio is tough though we have to charge sales tax... 22x turns to 25x after tax...