Realcent.org

I could be 100% wrong, and many or most here won't like the thought of it happening, but something tells me gold is very likely to dip below $1000.
Always mind your risk and DYOD.
Cheers!

what do you see that would indicate such things? I dont ask this to start some crazy nonsense on here I ask because I would like to see what points you in that direction.

as always thanks

rsk1963 wrote:what do you see that would indicate such things? I dont ask this to start some crazy nonsense on here I ask because I would like to see what points you in that direction.

as always thanks

Hi friend. The only thing I use to look at price is price itself. I don't listen to the hype, fear mongering, hyperbole etc. found on the why-you-need-to-buy-the-gold-and-silver-that-we-push-and-promote-dot-com websites (you know- the sites that are so sure that the direction is up up up that they keep offering price discounts and promotional offers to get rid of the stuff.)
I take a pragmatic approach by analyzing the sum of all positions- price. Some say "The price is wrong, it should be x or y." To me, it is what it is.

However, I won't argue against an individual's belief. If someone wants to take a position (long or short, physical or financial) then feed on every clipping that they can find to support their emotional need, while ignoring the reasons why they should reconsider- so be it. To each their own.
Cheers!

Price? The price is currently about 1400 so just saying price is like saying water is wet. The sum of all positions is the price sure, so if it goes down that is right, if it goes up that is right. I think people are looking for a little more info than that. I have heard Nouriel Roubini say that it is going under 1000 for some odd reasons which seem pretty conspiratorial, and others like Marc Faber say not to take Nouriel's advice. I have no idea where the price will go, but general feelings are important too so I take note of yours as well. If you have any specific info that would be helpful. Thanks!

Jonflyfish wrote:I could be 100% wrong, and many or most here won't like the thought of it happening, but something tells me gold is very likely to dip below $1000.
Always mind your risk and DYOD.
Cheers!

Jonflyfish, if you are certain that Gold will dip below $1000, I'm assuming you are talking about some time within this year, then I will be happy to make a friendly wager with you, if you are interested... You got a 50/50 shot at winning.

If Gold falls below $1000 on or before 12-31-13; I'll send you a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

If Gold does NOT fall below $1000 on or before 12-31-13; you send me a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

Interested?

To think that just a few weeks ago, you still thought silver would go up to $40-$60 once the current price slide was over. But now gold below $1000? Well, this prediction does seem a little more realistic than the last. I wouldn't be surprised if you're right this time, especially considering you didn't give any sort of time frame.

blackrabbit wrote:Price? The price is currently about 1400 so just saying price is like saying water is wet. The sum of all positions is the price sure, so if it goes down that is right, if it goes up that is right. I think people are looking for a little more info than that. I have heard Nouriel Roubini say that it is going under 1000 for some odd reasons which seem pretty conspiratorial, and others like Marc Faber say not to take Nouriel's advice. I have no idea where the price will go, but general feelings are important too so I take note of yours as well. If you have any specific info that would be helpful. Thanks!

Water is wet and wet comes from weather patterns. Perhaps there are cycles and tendencies that can be studied where one might anticipate wet weather on the way? I know a lot of folks who check with the weatherman for such. I don't know about Roubini and Faber thoughts. Other opinions are not inputs into the pragmatic price models that I use. The only specific info to share is that the model has pointed south and continues to do so. Stories "justify" price activity for some. The account balance is what I look at.

Cheers!

Copper Catcher wrote:

Jonflyfish wrote:I could be 100% wrong, and many or most here won't like the thought of it happening, but something tells me gold is very likely to dip below $1000.
Always mind your risk and DYOD.
Cheers!

Jonflyfish, if you are certain that Gold will dip below $1000, I'm assuming you are talking about some time within this year, then I will be happy to make a friendly wager with you, if you are interested... You got a 50/50 shot at winning.

If Gold falls below $1000 on or before 12-31-13; I'll send you a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

If Gold does NOT fall below $1000 on or before 12-31-13; you send me a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

Interested?

I am not certain since I don't predict prices because no matter what knowledge or background someone has, nothing about the non-existent future is knowable. Having said that and I'm not one to gamble, but just for good friendly fun, I'm happy to toss an ASE into the ring.

Cheers!

Jonflyfish wrote:

rsk1963 wrote:what do you see that would indicate such things? I dont ask this to start some crazy nonsense on here I ask because I would like to see what points you in that direction.

as always thanks

Hi friend. The only thing I use to look at price is price itself. I don't listen to the hype, fear mongering, hyperbole etc. found on the why-you-need-to-buy-the-gold-and-silver-that-we-push-and-promote-dot-com websites (you know- the sites that are so sure that the direction is up up up that they keep offering price discounts and promotional offers to get rid of the stuff.)
I take a pragmatic approach by analyzing the sum of all positions- price. Some say "The price is wrong, it should be x or y." To me, it is what it is.

However, I won't argue against an individual's belief. If someone wants to take a position (long or short, physical or financial) then feed on every clipping that they can find to support their emotional need, while ignoring the reasons why they should reconsider- so be it. To each their own.
Cheers!

hey, um, next time, can you not take the words out of my mouth? I have to agree with you 100%.

scyther wrote:To think that just a few weeks ago, you still thought silver would go up to $40-$60 once the current price slide was over. But now gold below $1000? Well, this prediction does seem a little more realistic than the last. I wouldn't be surprised if you're right this time, especially considering you didn't give any sort of time frame.

One thing about the market and the models that I use is that they are both dynamic. Models can reverse along with the market. Losers average losers. Winners follow a plan with extreme discipline.
And, it STILL looks reasonable for silver to achieve $40-60 once this same price slide that hasn't ended is complete. And yes gold <$1000. None of which are predictions, just current price targets.

Cheers!

Good thread, I like it much better. The wager adds some fun too.
Thanks guys!

Jonflyfish wrote:I could be 100% wrong, and many or most here won't like the thought of it happening, but something tells me gold is very likely to dip below $1000.
Always mind your risk and DYOD.
Cheers!

In that case, you'd better get out while you can--I'd be happy to help you make some money by buying all the gold you have for $1100 per ounce

rexmerdinus wrote:

Jonflyfish wrote:I could be 100% wrong, and many or most here won't like the thought of it happening, but something tells me gold is very likely to dip below $1000.
Always mind your risk and DYOD.
Cheers!

In that case, you'd better get out while you can--I'd be happy to help you make some money by buying all the gold you have for $1100 per ounce

I've hedged long ago friend. No emotional "while I can" financial decisions. Those make for the worst regret.
If/when gold is below $1000 I'll look you up to see how much you can afford to buy at $1100

Cheers!

stlouiscoin wrote:hey, um, next time, can you not take the words out of my mouth? I have to agree with you 100%.

Thanks for the kind words. For you to say that I suspect you have been around the block a time or two. Certainly not your first rodeo.

Cheers!

Reading this tread is much more pleasing than the last train wreck I witnessed. Jonflyfish entries are always a learning experience even when his predictions are contrary to what some people on this forum site would like to hear. But to me it's about education. I am into precious metals for the long term for the financial benefit of my two daughters. If I can pick up a tidbit of knowledge here and there I'm all for it, from people on both sides of an issue. To all contributors keep posting, knowledge is key.
Thanks,
Todd

I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

inflationhawk wrote:I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

Here's a pretty decent technical analysis with some thought behind it.
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2013/06/Gold-Price-Analysis-June-6-2013/21420

inflationhawk wrote:I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

inflationhawk wrote:I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

Geeezzz...... here we go again!

As I understand it, JFF makes his living from the futures market. He gets PAID for his expertise by CLIENTS who use his models for their financial gain. If you want to know all he has to offer, then HIRE HIM!

It is wrong for several of you to demand JFF produce his intellectual product without your paying for it.

If you don't like what JFF has to say, then start your own damn thread and leave him alone. Enough!

EDIT: I over-stated my sentiment. Country said it better than me. Keep it civil, please.

Yea, that is how I took JFF's response to me. An market trading expert with a technical model expressing his general conclusions. So I just take it as another voice out there like any of the other economic professionals who express their opinion. Usually they throw in a little something more concrete without giving away their whole system though which I find more interesting.

blackrabbit wrote:Yea, that is how I took JFF's response to me. An market trading expert with a technical model expressing his general conclusions. So I just take it as another voice out there like any of the other economic professionals who express their opinion. Usually they throw in a little something more concrete without giving away their whole system though which I find more interesting.

Maybe this chart I found will help explain where gold is headed.

Any technical counter-arguments? Why does GOLD have to go down from here? Current sentiment reeks; reminds me of stock market bottoms..

Rastatodd wrote:Reading this tread is much more pleasing than the last train wreck I witnessed. Jonflyfish entries are always a learning experience even when his predictions are contrary to what some people on this forum site would like to hear. But to me it's about education. I am into precious metals for the long term for the financial benefit of my two daughters. If I can pick up a tidbit of knowledge here and there I'm all for it, from people on both sides of an issue. To all contributors keep posting, knowledge is key.
Thanks,
Todd

Thanks, Todd. Very kind of you to see the value in differing opinions, insights, experiences, knowledge etc. It's folks like yourself that make it worthwhile.
Best to you.
Cheers!

inflationhawk wrote:I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

Which models are you referring to that aren't "useful at all"? There is no such thing as "supporting evidence" for something that hasn't happened.
Having said that, my 'models' are doing just fine, and so is the discipline with following them.

Cheers!

Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay wrote:

inflationhawk wrote:I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

Geeezzz...... here we go again!

As I understand it, JFF makes his living from the futures market. He gets PAID for his expertise by CLIENTS who use his models for their financial gain. If you want to know all he has to offer, then HIRE HIM!

It is wrong for several of you to demand JFF produce his intellectual product without your paying for it.

If you don't like what JFF has to say, then start your own damn thread and leave him alone. Enough!

Thank you friend. I've posted here over the years like anyone else- to provide a perspective. I thought as a collective group we were to respectfully welcome that.
I guess some feel otherwise.
Cheers!