Realcent.org

I may be 100% wrong but something tells me silver is very likely to continue its precipitous drop to below $20 and tackle the $15-17 barrier.
Mind your risk and always DYOD
Cheers!

Sweet,

Blood in the streets.

I do like how you always qualify these predictions with I may be 100% wrong.


So, I may be 100% wrong, but I think you're just taking a stab in the dark......sorta like back in late winter when your predictions were completely contrary to these. Now, that makes you no different than Schiff or any others who cry wolf one direction or the other. I'd love it though to hear valid reasoning why it would drop another 20-30%.

If I had to pick a direction for the next 60 days, I'd pick slightly downward. Just a hunch based off of lackluster economic news coming, other world events, etc.

But unlike other predictors jonflyfish has been well above average in his predictions. I don't have the stats but I've followed this forum for a while and he's well above other predictors both on this site and other sites that I've seen.

barrytrot wrote:But unlike other predictors jonflyfish has been well above average in his predictions. I don't have the stats but I've followed this forum for a while and he's well above other predictors both on this site and other sites that I've seen.

indeed, which is why I posed the question on the sub 1000 gold

barrytrot wrote:But unlike other predictors jonflyfish has been well above average in his predictions. I don't have the stats but I've followed this forum for a while and he's well above other predictors both on this site and other sites that I've seen.

I think we went through this in another thread. Jon said he doesn't make predictions.

Jonflyfish wrote:

inflationhawk wrote:If a person makes a statement about the future that "could be wrong", but it turns out they were not wrong, did they make an accurate prediction?

That's a good question. Why don't you answer it.
I don't "predict" anything. I keep saying this. And when I have good trades, I don't come looking for people to acknowledge it, not do I boast about it.

Cheers!

barrytrot wrote:But unlike other predictors jonflyfish has been well above average in his predictions. I don't have the stats but I've followed this forum for a while and he's well above other predictors both on this site and other sites that I've seen.

Disagree.

Look it up.

Last prediction before the big downdraft was silver is takin off, like a delta heavy.

During the bull he predicted the fall from 49. I'm an idiot and thought the price was ridiculous at the time. Look it up.

That's why paper is fir trading and metal is fir stacking. Whiskeys fir drinkin water's fir fightin.

I'm buying on the way up and on the way down. If I need money I break a little bit off and start over.

This is non-emotional approach. I have always marveled at the way you "bullion stackers" hawk the market.

Like the law, the market is an ass!

I'm not rich and never will be but I've been doing this for a long time. I always have money.... and metal.

You can $hit on my opinion and that's cool, because, as usual I've been drinkin

I didn't say he was flawless I just said based on what I've seen he's been above the average.

I would like to have someone compile all his "calls" and see what his actual stats are. That would be quite interesting Not enough for me to do it, but I'd send the person that did $25 for their time (true offer).

barrytrot wrote:I didn't say he was flawless I just said based on what I've seen he's been above the average.

I would like to have someone compile all his "calls" and see what his actual stats are. That would be quite interesting Not enough for me to do it, but I'd send the person that did $25 for their time (true offer).

Not interested and I think it would be really hard to do anyway (for anyone that makes statements like this, not just Jon). You can go back and qualify most statements by saying, I didn't give an exact timeframe or many other caveats. There will be disagreements with trying to evaluate anyone's predictions as they can be interpreted differently by different people (drunk or sober).

However, the overall point is that Jon himself says he doesn't make predictions, so how can we evaluate something that wasn't a prediction?

Jonflyfish wrote:I may be 100% wrong but something tells me silver is very likely to continue its precipitous drop to below $20 and tackle the $15-17 barrier.
Mind your risk and always DYOD
Cheers!

Jonflyfish, if you are certain that Silver will dip to $15, I'm assuming you are talking about some time within this year, then I will be happy to make a friendly wager with you, if you are interested... You got a 50/50 shot at winning.

If Silver falls to $15 on or before 12-31-13; I'll send you a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

If Silver does NOT fall below $15 on or before 12-31-13; you send me a 1oz American Silver Eagle.

Interested?

inflationhawk wrote:

barrytrot wrote:I didn't say he was flawless I just said based on what I've seen he's been above the average.

I would like to have someone compile all his "calls" and see what his actual stats are. That would be quite interesting Not enough for me to do it, but I'd send the person that did $25 for their time (true offer).

Not interested and I think it would be really hard to do anyway (for anyone that makes statements like this, not just Jon). You can go back and qualify most statements by saying, I didn't give an exact timeframe or many other caveats. There will be disagreements with trying to evaluate anyone's predictions as they can be interpreted differently by different people (drunk or sober).

However, the overall point is that Jon himself says he doesn't make predictions, so how can we evaluate something that wasn't a prediction?

Because he always says he might be wrong, which goes without saying for almost any prediction. Of course you can't know for certain. But the reason he says it is because he thinks it's true. 100% confidence in something isn't necessary for it to be called a prediction IMO.

Thogey wrote:

barrytrot wrote:But unlike other predictors jonflyfish has been well above average in his predictions. I don't have the stats but I've followed this forum for a while and he's well above other predictors both on this site and other sites that I've seen.

Disagree.

Look it up.

Last prediction before the big downdraft was silver is takin off, like a delta heavy.

During the bull he predicted the fall from 49. I'm an idiot and thought the price was ridiculous at the time. Look it up.

I agree. JFF may have made a lot of great calls in the past, but in the last year he's been pretty bad. If calling the collapse at $49 is what he's most revered for, that's not very impressive, unless he gave a very specific time frame. Anyone could see by looking at that chart that was due for a major correction in the relatively near future.

jff has to love making a post and sitting back to watch the fireworks lol

agmoose wrote:I do like how you always qualify these predictions with I may be 100% wrong.


So, I may be 100% wrong, but I think you're just taking a stab in the dark......sorta like back in late winter when your predictions were completely contrary to these. Now, that makes you no different than Schiff or any others who cry wolf one direction or the other. I'd love it though to hear valid reasoning why it would drop another 20-30%.

If I had to pick a direction for the next 60 days, I'd pick slightly downward. Just a hunch based off of lackluster economic news coming, other world events, etc.

Not sure exactly what your point is but it seems that you have one. I don't know the Schiff wolf cry business. I don't go around posting regular youtube videos telling tall tale stories to convince people to buy, and buy from me etc.

"Valid reasons" sounds like a forum of debate where folks argue their points. Unfortunately, the market does what it does, irrespective of how one justifies or reasons price movements. I've seen a lot of fear mongers make excuses on their websites during the recent precipitous price declines. Their purpose for doing so is to attempt to save face and keep an audience by feeding them with very colorful excuses, instead of admitting that they were wrong. The farther price dropped the louder and longer their stories have become.
That's not for me, friend. I simply take it for what it is. There is a stack balance and an account balance. No amount of story-telling can make it be anything other than what it is.

Cheers!

barrytrot wrote:But unlike other predictors jonflyfish has been well above average in his predictions. I don't have the stats but I've followed this forum for a while and he's well above other predictors both on this site and other sites that I've seen.

Thanks friend. I don't really post a lot of specifics here like in the past that you are recalling. There was the major cycle breakout at $17 (old site if I recall correctly), top at $49 etc. but after some discussion most folks said that they didn't care about price, (even though they obviously do.) so I haven't really posted a lot of trading specifics since then.

Cheers!

scyther wrote:Because he always says he might be wrong, which goes without saying for almost any prediction. Of course you can't know for certain. But the reason he says it is because he thinks it's true. 100% confidence in something isn't necessary for it to be called a prediction IMO.

Actually, the reason I say it is because the models are suggesting it. I trade with the flows. When they end, I don't know in advance. Can anticipate certain things happening but that doesn't mean that they will and that doesn't mean specific action is taken at the time that it happens or doesn't happen, if the models don't show the same thing at that same time.

Cheers!

scyther wrote:

Thogey wrote:

barrytrot wrote:But unlike other predictors jonflyfish has been well above average in his predictions. I don't have the stats but I've followed this forum for a while and he's well above other predictors both on this site and other sites that I've seen.

Disagree.

Look it up.

Last prediction before the big downdraft was silver is takin off, like a delta heavy.

During the bull he predicted the fall from 49. I'm an idiot and thought the price was ridiculous at the time. Look it up.

I agree. JFF may have made a lot of great calls in the past, but in the last year he's been pretty bad. If calling the collapse at $49 is what he's most revered for, that's not very impressive, unless he gave a very specific time frame. Anyone could see by looking at that chart that was due for a major correction in the relatively near future.

I don't understand. Great calls in the past, but pretty bad and calling $49 not impressive (and by the way, I'm not here to impress anyone) because anyone could see looking at "that" chart? Perhaps anyone looking at my charts can see things as they develop. They are designed to be clear. However, "anyone" can't see those charts.

And BTW- anyone giving you a specific price and time as a "prediction" on a regular basis is someone I'd run from as fast as humanly possible.

Cheers!

Predictions don't mean a lot to me although I am curious about the reasoning. People (and trained monkeys with darts) can make predictions on silver from $15 up to $35 by year end, and in this market they could all end up being right. The real question is what is the true value of silver or gold, for what has been truly lost (perhaps irrevocably) is real price discovery by unfettered markets. We are being governed (ruled?) by people who actually believe that the masses can be controlled, not just through regulatory administration discussed in the book "Nudge" (by Thaler and Sunstein), but also through the economic concepts of MOPE and the Wealth Effect.

In my opinion we arrive at out current price of silver and gold through a combination of price manipulation, as we've seen on a few Sunday evenings, and the movement of market forces. However, even the seemingly genuine market is subject to MOPE (Management of Perception Economics) through constant negative drumbeat of the financial press. If the media can cut down a Republican President during an unpopular war is taking on competitive stores of wealth to the dollar such a stretch? And as I said before, those investors who want go long on margin would be well advised to steer clear of PMs and stick to Tesla and Apple.

For the record I don't totally disagree with JFF as I think PMs will be biased to the downside until something (like another credit downgrade for example) snaps investors back to some semblance of reality. It has been pointed out the the cost of mining an ounce of silver is about $26. However, the longer silver stays below $23 the less credible that claim gets.

theo wrote:However, even the seemingly genuine market is subject to MOPE (Management of Perception Economics) through constant negative drumbeat of the financial press.

I've paid attention to this for years, and have noticed the manipulation is becoming more obvious outside of the traditional press as time goes on. Any place their agents can get attention is a fair target...including realcent.

If big money was afraid of covering shorts, wouldn't it make sense for them to hire a room full of keyboard monkeys to spam forums with predictions of huge drops? That's what I'd do in their position...

Jonflyfish wrote:

scyther wrote:I agree. JFF may have made a lot of great calls in the past, but in the last year he's been pretty bad. If calling the collapse at $49 is what he's most revered for, that's not very impressive, unless he gave a very specific time frame. Anyone could see by looking at that chart that was due for a major correction in the relatively near future.

I don't understand. Great calls in the past, but pretty bad and calling $49 not impressive (and by the way, I'm not here to impress anyone) because anyone could see looking at "that" chart? Perhaps anyone looking at my charts can see things as they develop. They are designed to be clear. However, "anyone" can't see those charts.

And BTW- anyone giving you a specific price and time as a "prediction" on a regular basis is someone I'd run from as fast as humanly possible.

Cheers!

I said you may have made some great calls in the past. Some people seem to think so, and I haven't been here as long as they have. Yes, I'd say you've been pretty bad at predicting prices in the last year, and certainly the last 6 months. And yes, when something goes parabolic like that it's a pretty good sign there's a crash coming soon. Was anyone surprised when the price of bitcoins collapsed a few months ago? Anyone giving you a time frame and being right about it might be someone good to listen to.

scyther wrote:

Jonflyfish wrote:

scyther wrote:I agree. JFF may have made a lot of great calls in the past, but in the last year he's been pretty bad. If calling the collapse at $49 is what he's most revered for, that's not very impressive, unless he gave a very specific time frame. Anyone could see by looking at that chart that was due for a major correction in the relatively near future.

I don't understand. Great calls in the past, but pretty bad and calling $49 not impressive (and by the way, I'm not here to impress anyone) because anyone could see looking at "that" chart? Perhaps anyone looking at my charts can see things as they develop. They are designed to be clear. However, "anyone" can't see those charts.

And BTW- anyone giving you a specific price and time as a "prediction" on a regular basis is someone I'd run from as fast as humanly possible.

Cheers!

I said you may have made some great calls in the past. Some people seem to think so, and I haven't been here as long as they have. Yes, I'd say you've been pretty bad at predicting prices in the last year, and certainly the last 6 months. And yes, when something goes parabolic like that it's a pretty good sign there's a crash coming soon. Was anyone surprised when the price of bitcoins collapsed a few months ago? Anyone giving you a time frame and being right about it might be someone good to listen to.

Yes I've been bad. Even selling out of bitcoins right into the peak (as posted here)
And when something goes parabolic- that is time to make the big money. To say it is "obviously" going to correct or reverse sounds good after the fact but to act during such would be like jumping in front of a train. High prices in what seems like a parabolic move can go much higher (especially percentage-wise) to an even greater parabolic value.

Cheers!

The shorts are going to either win or get squeezed.

I was thinking that it would be a very prolonged flattening for a few years, but the sheer number of shorts in precious metals is astounding. Right now it looks like they are either going to win (and price plummet) or get squeezed and price will rise suddenly.

Hold on to your cowboy hats, this is going to get interesting.

[quote="theo"] . . . the masses can be controlled, not just through regulatory administration discussed in the book "Nudge" (by Thaler and Sunstein), but also through the economic concepts of MOPE and the Wealth Effect . . .
quote]

Thank you theo

ZenOps wrote:The shorts are going to either win or get squeezed.

I was thinking that it would be a very prolonged flattening for a few years, but the sheer number of shorts in precious metals is astounding. Right now it looks like they are either going to win (and price plummet) or get squeezed and price will rise suddenly.

Hold on to your cowboy hats, this is going to get interesting.

+1

Thanks for sharing the reasoning behind your thoughts.

ZenOps wrote:The shorts are going to either win or get squeezed.

I was thinking that it would be a very prolonged flattening for a few years, but the sheer number of shorts in precious metals is astounding. Right now it looks like they are either going to win (and price plummet) or get squeezed and price will rise suddenly.

Hold on to your cowboy hats, this is going to get interesting.

Good post and to pile on, CERTAIN shorts are going to win and have been winning, but even if the price goes down some shorts that enter late will eventually get hammered hard. The problem with short selling is eventually you get squeezed and when you do you have to either get out and lick your wounds or keep putting in more increasing your downside risk. The long term upward bias to commodities is certain in a world of fiat money. Short selling is a suckers game, unless you have inside information and/or know how to manipulate markets.