Is silver about to break out. . . .

[theo]

. . . .or will it get smacked down again?

Silver and gold are both up about 2% in after hours trading.

I suppose the Bernanke "low inflation can be dangerous" comments did the trick. . . at least for now.

I'm thinking that a decisive silver move above $20 (and gold above 1300) will confirm a bottom for both metals.

[scyther]

I've been thinking the same thing. There seems to be strong resistance at $20. It approached the $20 mark earlier today but couldn't quite get there. If it can get over that, it may bounce up. Also, Friday's bottom wasn't as low as the previous one on June 26-27. It's on a really small scale so I'm not sure if it really matters, but in general that's considered bullish. I think we've seen the bottom for now. I'm glad I bought that bar when I did... I just wish it would ship .

[creshka46]

I'm not so sure, I can't imagine this is going to be a plus for silver prices:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/bus ... s/2505457/

Then again, I don't know much about these things

[Engineer]

There was a decent breakout above $20 in overnight trading...let's see if it holds.

[scyther]

There was a decent breakout above $20 in overnight trading...let's see if it holds.

Hasn't held so far! Still... that's the highest it's been in a while.

[doug]

The US Dollar index has been losing value since yesterday. This makes silver cheaper for foreign currencies and will drive up the price in US Dollars. The same is happening in all of the commodities. Just look at oil.

Doug

[Country]

The Bernank made a statement after hours that QE might need to be maintained and/or increased. Therefore, dollar weaker (more QE), PMs stronger (QE not ending), and stocks stronger (continued money flow). Will PMs bottom here? The herd does move in a panic, doesn't it!

[beauanderos]

I'm betting we're rangebound (at least until August), with TPTB allowing dramatic spikes to infuse hope before demoralizing them time and again with repetitive smackdowns. I just bought more ZSL. If I make a small profit on it then it takes some of the sting out of price pulldowns. My stack, on the other hand, hopes that we've bottomed.

[InfleXion]

They will blow up the QE balloon until their lungs give out. In the meantime they will jawbone to move the price accordingly in the absence of outright coordinated takedowns, and maybe even the occaisonal smack-up just to get some hopes up for the crushing. Monetary expansion only matters when the law of supply and demand matters, which it does not, yet. The past QE runups were speculative. This market is completely speculative. Fair value is on the corner of far out and no return. I actually do agree with JFF that there is truth in price, but that's under the assumption that price is a product of supply and demand, not the other way around. The price we have today is not the true price. If you care more about what the price is than securing tangible wealth then you're more likely to get shaken out of your position before reaping the benefits.

[shinnosuke]

What is the definition of "about to"?

[theo]

Fair value is on the corner of far out and no return. .

Well said. Obscuring the true value of various assets makes it easier to secretly steal wealth from what is left of the productive class. As is usually the case, fraud is the handmaiden of theft.

[68Camaro]

As far as the exchanges themselves go, that the shorts are now at record low and JPM has shifted from net short 50,000 contracts to net long 75,000 contracts in a span of 5 months tells me they have run this version of the scam out, and are cycling / prepping for another 2-3 year mini-bull run, at which time (lacking something that prevents it from being possible) they will do it again.

[neilgin1]

I've been thinking the same thing. There seems to be strong resistance at $20. It approached the $20 mark earlier today but couldn't quite get there. If it can get over that, it may bounce up. Also, Friday's bottom wasn't as low as the previous one on June 26-27. It's on a really small scale so I'm not sure if it really matters, but in general that's considered bullish. I think we've seen the bottom for now. I'm glad I bought that bar when I did... I just wish it would ship .

we need a STRONG close above $22.

I cant remember the exact point in time....let me go look...alright.....thru late 09, and thru the first three quarters of 2010 it was just like this......$22 was THE "maginot line"......that's about the time I stumbled here, which was also about the time I began to look for land....and once it punched thru $22, we started RIPPING.

i'm looking at the monthlie bar charts......what we've done from late 2009 to NOW, was have $20-22 as overhead resistance, we went thru that in the 4th quarter of 2010, steep climb up to almost $50, then a descending line of overhead resistance to where we are right now....this area HERE is where we spent a lot of time, POST LEHMAN.

my thing is this...I cant buy a single toz until I do personal deficit reduction....that's MY "thing"....but silver as a whole?...looking 10-20 years forward? (provided nuclear superpowers don't do a nutty)....we're looking REAL GOOD.

in my humble opinion? two things have to line up, a strong silver close above $22, and (God forbid) a dollar close BELOW long term support at 72...something I DO NOT wish for or want.....if that happens?...we'll be at $125 so fast, our heads will spin, and the dot gov might impose some restrictions on hard currency trades. just my take.

[neilgin1]

As far as the exchanges themselves go, that the shorts are now at record low and JPM has shifted from net short 50,000 contracts to net long 75,000 contracts in a span of 5 months tells me they have run this version of the scam out, and are cycling / prepping for another 2-3 year mini-bull run, at which time (lacking something that prevents it from being possible) they will do it again.

I posted before I read your post 68......I do believe we're on the same track, fondly, neil