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IMHO, the PM correction that began in 2011 is over. Like the SPX stock market rebound from 666, the initial stages of the PM BULL will go higher quickly, viciously, destroying all those leaning the wrong direction expecting much lower prices. Presently, the signs of a significant resumption of the PM BULL are appearing. SILVER leading GOLD, SILVER stocks doing better than SILVER, GOLD stocks doing better than GOLD, and SILVER stocks doing better than GOLD stocks. The last run up in SILVER began from $8.60 and reached nearly $50/troy ounce. A similar appreciation from $18, would yield a SILVER high point over $100/troy ounce. How long could it take to get there? The run up to $50 took roughly 3 years. If the ensuing run up took a similar amount of time, $100+ levels would be reached sometime in 2016; grinding slowly higher the first two years, and a blow off of giant proportions in the third year. Like anyone else, I don't have a crystal ball, but I feel it's time to ride the BULL!

Sounds fun...I'll buy a ticket

Country wrote:

IMHO, the PM correction that began in 2011 is over. Like the SPX stock market rebound from 666, the initial stages of the PM BULL will go higher quickly, viciously, destroying all those leaning the wrong direction expecting much lower prices. Presently, the signs of a significant resumption of the PM BULL are appearing. SILVER leading GOLD, SILVER stocks doing better than SILVER, GOLD stocks doing better than GOLD, and SILVER stocks doing better than GOLD stocks. The last run up in SILVER began from $8.60 and reached nearly $50/troy ounce. A similar appreciation from $18, would yield a SILVER high point over $100/troy ounce. How long could it take to get there? The run up to $50 took roughly 3 years. If the ensuing run up took a similar amount of time, $100+ levels would be reached sometime in 2016; grinding slowly higher the first two years, and a blow off of giant proportions in the third year. Like anyone else, I don't have a crystal ball, but I feel it's time to ride the BULL!

That chart definitely says BUY!! to me!

I am not ready for it to go up.... still need to stack

-The Great

I'm with Clint.
Stacking good / price increase bad!

I too hope it stays down a while longer so I can increase my stack, but if it doesn't I'll be happy to ride the bull which is overdue in my book and appears to be finding its legs.

I have to wonder how triple digit silver would come about. It seems like $50 is so hugely psychological that it can't be permitted to coexist with dollar dominance, and that the exchanges would need to concede the price setting mechanism to the physical market which may depend on eventually running out of metal, that is unless dollar dominance no longer needs propping up in which case there is no more need for price suppression.

So then if the physical market is what is to take us to the moon what does that price setting mechanism look like, and will it supplant or run in tandem with the paper price? Will it even be respected enough to do trade, or will we be stuck sitting on our metals or else going full barter until things shake out? I have heard much speculation about the physical price diverging from the paper price, but I don't see how that could work optimally without cooperation from the exchanges. Otherwise volatility could put a lot of people on the sidelines which would only increase volatility. If that ultimately means hyperinflation and metals returning to money then dollars become irrelevant, and how do we measure gains at that point?

InfleXion wrote:I too hope it stays down a while longer so I can increase my stack, but if it doesn't I'll be happy to ride the bull which is overdue in my book and appears to be finding its legs.

I have to wonder how triple digit silver would come about. It seems like $50 is so hugely psychological that it can't be permitted to coexist with dollar dominance, and that the exchanges would need to concede the price setting mechanism to the physical market which may depend on eventually running out of metal, that is unless dollar dominance no longer needs propping up in which case there is no more need for price suppression.

So then if the physical market is what is to take us to the moon what does that price setting mechanism look like, and will it supplant or run in tandem with the paper price? Will it even be respected enough to do trade, or will we be stuck sitting on our metals or else going full barter until things shake out? I have heard much speculation about the physical price diverging from the paper price, but I don't see how that could work optimally without cooperation from the exchanges. Otherwise volatility could put a lot of people on the sidelines which would only increase volatility. If that ultimately means hyperinflation and metals returning to money then dollars become irrelevant, and how do we measure gains at that point?

We don't measure gains... at that point in time (hyperinflation) we continue to live the lifestyle we have today... while everyone else is reduced to homeless-style (standing on street corners) status.

Sure, I was thinking more for taxation purposes but if an ounce of metal is the measuring stick then yes, gains become immeasurable/irrelevant.

It may fall to those who have metal to put it to good use in the community for things like food co-ops, investing in local business, etc. to play a part in ensuring that our neighbors who were not prepared do not collectively fall into poverty.

Scenarios such as this are what make me feel OK with prices staying down where they are. It's not that I wouldn't want to expand my wealth, but if the burden of everyone who didn't do the same falls to folks like us that doesn't really seem like a walk in the park even with a good sized stack.

I have friends who are skeptics about PMs and they hear that it had dropped, and asked me, "aren't you mad that the silver you bought 5 months ago for $34/ozt is now only worth $20?!!!" lol I said NO!!! I'm glad that now its like buy 2oz get 1oz free!!! I know PMs will go up, I am just enjoying buying them now

I'm Perma-Bull no matter what

-The Great

Take a look at the month of August for the past 5-6 years. 2008 and 2011 are exceptions, but every other year, the prices started taking off like a rocket. It seems to me that a large part of this is seasonal. Who knows how high it will go in the next few months, but I wouldn't be suprised at all to see it back around 20-25 next June/July.

I don't know, maybe I'm just trying to make myself feel better because my wife wouldn't let me jump on the silver train a month ago when we could have loaded up for under $21/oz

I'm certain nobody will agree with what I'm about to say and that's fine. I think this is a large head fake similar to what happened last year. About this time last year we were teduring with $26 Ag and then it went as high at $35 before a serious smack down. Since the collapse has been postponed because Obamacare has been delayed and yesterday they just announced that the new $100 will be delayed as well due to the bull[excrement] "mashing" excuse, there is no reason for silver to go up now unless "they" want the price to rise right before another smack down that will scare even more people out of PM's next year. I'm thinking next April we will see $13 Ag. Thoughts?

Maybe 13 dollars if there is huge stock market crash, but I doubt it would stay there long.

blackrabbit wrote:Maybe 13 dollars if there is huge stock market crash, but I doubt it would stay there long.

Yeah.. especially if RC'ers have a bunch of FRN's laying around.... there would then be an immediate AG shortage

-The Great

I hope all you guys appreciate the fact that I'm funding this silver price rise. As soon as I went triple short with ZSL... zingo, to the moon, Alice!

Thanks Bud! We appreciate the sacrifice, and for taking one for the team.

CtrlAltBernanke wrote:they just announced that the new $100 will be delayed as well due to the bull[excrement] "mashing" excuse

And this affects the price of silver how...?

I agree with the rest of your post though.

CtrlAltBernanke wrote:I'm certain nobody will agree with what I'm about to say and that's fine. I think this is a large head fake similar to what happened last year. About this time last year we were teduring with $26 Ag and then it went as high at $35 before a serious smack down. Since the collapse has been postponed because Obamacare has been delayed and yesterday they just announced that the new $100 will be delayed as well due to the bull[excrement] "mashing" excuse, there is no reason for silver to go up now unless "they" want the price to rise right before another smack down that will scare even more people out of PM's next year. I'm thinking next April we will see $13 Ag. Thoughts?

Well, you are right, I don't agree Of course we are just postulating and my opinion is not any better than anyone elses, because it's still just an opinion.

The main reason being that JPM went long on silver at $20'ish. They are now profiting from this rise after having been the primary source of price suppression being the stewards of the SLV and its vaults, and especially since they inherited the monster short position from Bear Stearns in 2008 which is no longer on their books having been unwound for the most part with the rest being dispersed throughout other banks in the financial system. Another reason this seems likely to me is because that is the same price point they inherited the short position at, so they were able to break even on it instead of taking a loss.

To expound on that, why did they go long? We don't really know, but the most logical explanation in my mind is because they are in fact running out of metal. There have been a number of ZH articles showing that JPM is directly importing metal from other bullion banks to be able to meet outflow demand. It seems they are preparing for the end of their ability control the price at the expense of the physical market, and instead of waiting for the inevitable to occur and being caught off guard they are positioning to profit from it and may even be ushering it in to maintain control over the timing.

If this is the case then it stands to reason that this recent smackdown was for the purpose of shifting from short to long while they still have the ability to control the price. Now that they have completed that shift I don't see any motivation to keep the price so low that it impacts miner profitability. While it is debatable I choose to defer to the CEO of SLW who stated that their cost of production is $20/oz (presumably all-in mining + refining cost). I think the price can be anywhere in the $20's and still succeed from the standpoint of making the USD look attractive in comparison. I am not really expecting another smackdown until we see some significant price rises that get the masses' attention, but a smackdown can occur at any time as long as the paper price is in control so my plan is just to wait it out.

scyther wrote:

CtrlAltBernanke wrote:they just announced that the new $100 will be delayed as well due to the bull[excrement] "mashing" excuse

And this affects the price of silver how...?

I agree with the rest of your post though.

When the crash happens certain things need to be in place. Obamacare needs to be fully executed so everyone will have free medical care, there will be a food crisis so Monsanto will be the #1 food provider for the entire country, the NDAA will be in full force so the police can detain and disarm anyone they want in order to keep the peace, and the new $100 bill needs to be in place as the new currency so they can either cancel all of the old ones or tack on a 10% tax to it so the value of the old $100 bills will only be $90. Since there now seems to be a delay with some of these things for at least another year or two, you might as well let Ag go up and then smack it down again to the low teens to shake people out of physical and back into paper. Then once eeverything is in place it will be time to close the doors and lock it up for good with new laws, policies, etc. So you will NEVER be able to get out of paper and then lose it all.

CtrlAltBernanke wrote:

scyther wrote:

CtrlAltBernanke wrote:they just announced that the new $100 will be delayed as well due to the bull[excrement] "mashing" excuse

And this affects the price of silver how...?

I agree with the rest of your post though.

When the crash happens certain things need to be in place. Obamacare needs to be fully executed so everyone will have free medical care, there will be a food crisis so Monsanto will be the #1 food provider for the entire country, the NDAA will be in full force so the police can detain and disarm anyone they want in order to keep the peace, and the new $100 bill needs to be in place as the new currency so they can either cancel all of the old ones or tack on a 10% tax to it so the value of the old $100 bills will only be $90. Since there now seems to be a delay with some of these things for at least another year or two, you might as well let Ag go up and then smack it down again to the low teens to shake people out of physical and back into paper. Then once eeverything is in place it will be time to close the doors and lock it up for good with new laws, policies, etc. So you will NEVER be able to get out of paper and then lose it all.

I'm sorry but
1. why would they choose to discriminate against old bills? who does this help?
2. how does smacking down silver prices again shake people out of physical? I draw your attention to June thru july sales/premiums on ASE/90%.


just not sure I understand your reasoning.

"the new $100 bill needs to be in place as the new currency so they can either cancel all of the old ones or tack on a 10% tax to it so the value of the old $100 bills will only be $90."

Are you saying that the new $100 bill will represent a new currency? Everything I've seen indicates that it is will simply be a new high tech form of our old currency. Why introduce a new currency when the old one still has "credibility?"

Can you post a link?

Here.. old news.

http://gizmodo.com/5995338/heres-your-n ... ollar-bill

Definitely a new day is upon us when half of the RE market is cash buyers, moving towards rental society, temporary employees, and a slow but sure race to the bottom. Obviously, cash is plentiful for some, and life is .. relatively good. I to am hoarding cash, if we ever fall on hard times people will be selling PM's, unlike the present.

UGH!!! I just typed up a big thing but for some reason it didn't post. I'll be brief cause I need to hop off of here and get drunk.

The new bill help the US Gov and hurts every country and drug lords that we are not friends with. Jim willie came up w/ the 10% tax.

I will not argue that ASE's are at record highs but who care unless they are in strong hands. Even during the last big smackdown people were selling to APMEX. Another big smack down could also prevent people from jumping in to PM's for the first time. Why would somebody want to jump into PM's with a volatile silver chart when the DOW keeps going up?

The new $100 could be a piece of the new monetary policy the powers that be have been attempting for sometime. Expect half of this country to go to digital currency when the crash happens. If you go to the FED's own youtube channel they will tell you that the current $100 note security features are not in jeopardy of being compromised. If that's the case then why make new ones? Remember, Italy doesn't allow cash purchases over $50 now. It's all digital over there so who will these privileged people be that can carry the new $100 bills?

Remember, this is just what I think is going in on so it really doesn't bother me is anybody disagrees but this is what I'm prepping for.

It would be unprecedented. Every coin and note the United States has ever made is still legal tender, unlike most countries. But I guess it could happen in a crisis. I'm not too worried though; they always redesign bills and they never bar you from using the old ones. It does seem a little pointless though. Why not just keep counterfeiting the old ones if they're still legal tender?