Realcent.org

Any thoughts on what this might mean for us stackers?


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-1 ... ially-dead

It may be a bellwether signal but it is not the end of the issue many of us believe has been so suspect for the past 10-12 years. The fixing they speak of here is the quasi legal practice of small coordinated price adjustments for the purpose of settlements.

What I think it means is just the end of the obvious, overt, and unnecessary manipulation; while the greater and more insidious manipulation behind the scenes continues.

Basically, those of us who think there might be manipulation have up to now had an easy target to say "look there: its obvious they're manipulating". After the fixing ends we won't have such an easy target to point the skeptical at, so demonizing those claiming there is manipulation will be easier.

/cynic

After reading the article I read some of the reviews and came across this interesting prediction:

"Heavy shorting around 8/14. Bottom about 2 weeks later, on Labor Day."

This deal was made for a reason. Do you all think that reason was to create an honest physical market?

An honest physical market will occur outside the Rothschild's control.

The little guy will not be allowed in, until there is no other choice.

That environment will be a painful one.

LOL! This is a joke. How many times have we heard things like this and the price still continued to fall.

TPTB will manipulate until the whole fiat money system falls apart.

Silver (and gold) is about to take a tumble. Get ready to back up the truck.

Agreed re: the upcoming price dump. You can feel it in the air. And it's pretty easy to read. The big guys are going long so the dropping isn't done. It will be done a month before Goldman announces they are long. The August/September prediction seemed good. I bet it happens.

Good luck to you all that are waiting. While a paper dump will happen, the amount of physical that will be available will be limited in both size and duration.

With spot at $14 to $17 premiums will be $5 to $2 higher. There won't be any smokin deals.

68Camaro wrote:Good luck to you all that are waiting. While a paper dump will happen, the amount of physical that will be available will be limited in both size and duration.

This has not been the case for the prior price dumps. While I recognize that because something has happened again and again (physical being available on price dumps) that it might not again, I'm pretty confident that TPTB will hold things together enough to make the necessary deliveries. Some of us will bail out at the bottom and supply just enough to give the naked shorts the appearance of having clothes. And then it will be all over and the shorts will be long.

I do not believe we will have a supply crunch.

I used to. But I don't any more. I give the central banks credit for holding the Ponzi together and enriching themselves at the same time...what more can you say. They succeeded. Most people just don't realize that this success will be their eventual doom.

Oh well...Silver will never be worth nothing. And I personally feel it is indeed undervalued. I just don't believe we will have constrained supply given history.

That's fine - I respect your view, and you may even be right for another cycle or two. They been able to hold this together longer than I expected, but my view hasn't changed as they are still well within my max window of their abilty to keep this going (which goes out to 2020, though I have strong doubts they can hold it together past 2016). As I've noted before I think the evidence indicates that we are at or near peak silver (thought that could go on for some several years at that level). I believe that sooner or later my view will prevail; in which case if you're caught without a chair when the music stops then, you'll be left without. Gaining a possible few bucks per ounce doesn't make me want to sell my physical.

I agree. And don't think that I'm bought into the notion of trading in and out of the physical market either...I have zero faith in the paper casino and have stacked like a mad man. I've just come to realize that TPTB have a lot of leverage (I suppose about 1.5 quadrillion worth of it give or take a few hundred trillion) and they don't want a quick breakdown of the market. So we will not have a quick breakdown of the market. We will have war.

I've just come to realize that we don't need to panic about the end of physical supply and can time our buys based on fraud. It is the only steady and predictable market pattern we have witnessed. I used to subscribe to Ted Butler....but then I realized, why pay money to hear this fellow say the same thing over and over and over and over and over again? May as well just time my buys instead

68Camaro wrote:Good luck to you all that are waiting. While a paper dump will happen, the amount of physical that will be available will be limited in both size and duration.

Just adding to what I already have. Bought many 90% bags in the mid-late 80's when nobody wanted them.

I watch the PM markets closely everyday. My finger is always on/near the trigger. If it drops another buck or two quickly, I'm confident I can catch it before premiums are raised.

TwoPenniesEarned wrote:

68Camaro wrote:Good luck to you all that are waiting. While a paper dump will happen, the amount of physical that will be available will be limited in both size and duration.

This has not been the case for the prior price dumps. While I recognize that because something has happened again and again (physical being available on price dumps) that it might not again, I'm pretty confident that TPTB will hold things together enough to make the necessary deliveries. Some of us will bail out at the bottom and supply just enough to give the naked shorts the appearance of having clothes. And then it will be all over and the shorts will be long.

I do not believe we will have a supply crunch.

I used to. But I don't any more. I give the central banks credit for holding the Ponzi together and enriching themselves at the same time...what more can you say. They succeeded. Most people just don't realize that this success will be their eventual doom.

Oh well...Silver will never be worth nothing. And I personally feel it is indeed undervalued. I just don't believe we will have constrained supply given history.

We have seen issues with the supply chain relating to silver in previous dumps, but that's more to do with getting the newly refined silver to market (since most people are not selling) as opposed to failure to deliver, which was the case with with gold (MF Global / Gerald Celente for example) but not so much silver. In that case the physical gold only remained available for some market participants because of defaults on other legitimate contracts which were paid back (mostly) at a later time.

Silver is in shorter supply than gold on the physical level, but there is more money demanding gold because there isn't enough silver for the big fish at these prices. They could buy up all available silver if they wanted to, and causing game over for the exchanges would mean game over for those particular buyers. Last I checked the entire global marketcap for silver was in the ballpark of $30 billion, half as much as the Fed prints each month. Kyle Bass for example has over a $trillion at his disposal as a hedge fund manager. He is one of a growing number of people who could single handedly end the silver manipulation if they wanted to put their head on the chopping block.

Any silver shortage will likely have to be due to small hands like us, and I doubt that will be the first domino. Silver will probably never fail on the exchanges since far more silver investors prefer the real thing to begin with as opposed to gold investors. If anything, gold will break the exchanges before silver gets a chance to, and I think a gold shortage is the only thing that will ultimately end the manipulation aside from the USD going away and thus removing any need to prop it up. Personally I don't trust the average Joes out there to get educated and become stackers before either of those two things happen.

Good see you posting again Inflexion.

I tend to think the first to experience a noticeable shortage will be silver, though I have no idea when. At these prices it is the market is very small at 30 billion (as others have said), which is a little less than the GDP of Vietnam. However, the industrial demand is significant and mostly stable, while its supply tends to be inelastic as it is mostly dependent on the mining of other metals such as gold and copper (meaning higher prices will not necessarily bring in more mining supply). Even though the MSM and TPTB have done everything possible to discredit silver as a viable investment, the U.S. mint is on track for another record year of SAE sales. The physical investment community is made of small (yet strong) hands who hold anywhere between several hundred to several thousand ounces who are unlikely to sell at these prices.

Gold IMO is far more controllable since a large percentage of it is held by central banks. Any default between bankers will be (and probably have been) covered up since everybody knows any public failure to deliver will threaten the entire system.; Germany being the prime example. Also the lower industrial demand is far easier to satisfy.

It's a little disconcerting that even the silver bulls here seem to think it will fall in the near term. Maybe I should sell... nah... I'm actually looking forward to buying at lower prices if they come in the next few months; I haven't bought anything since last summer.

So it's confirmed for gold, but what about silver? And do any of y'all think we'll see higher gold now?


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-2 ... ell-orders

One scapegoat down, to mask the larger scheme.

I agree.....One guy....no way....Plus, this guy only got a fine, no jail time (Correzine, anyone?). It suggests to me that he was designated scapegoat for tptb.

I dont believe the manipulation will ever be over. Its an unfortunate reality for me.

The amazing buying opportunities we have right now are only going to get better.

With the Silver/Gold ratio at 66:1, silver is a much better buy right now.

Hope you guys still have dry powder available. Do not blow all your dry powder at once.

Gold and silver are going to skyrocket eventually. Those with e-x-t-r-e-m-e patience will be rewarded.

Do not believe this "silver shortage" crap that you read all over the internet either. Apparently there has been a shortage for 2 years now and the prices have only gone down.

The black swan that sends PM's to the moon will most likely come out of China or Russia.

In a double-quote from the Miles Franklin newsletter...

In 1995, 22 gold deposits with at least two million ounces of gold each were discovered, according to SNL Metals Economics Group. In 2010 there were six such discoveries, and in 2011 there was one. In 2012: nothing.
- Kelsey Campbell-Dollaghan, May 21, 2014

To repeat (my views), there is no current PM shortage. However, that a shortage is imminent does not require a black swan event - it merely requires greater demand than supply, and demand has been increasing for years while supply has been in decline. Stores are being sucked up. Eventually, should demand continue (and do any of us see it shrinking?), and even before stores are depleted, a deep-pockets investor will buy up enough of the remaining physical stores to put supply way out of balance with the demand, and prices will skyrocket. And that's without a black swan. Should a black swan occur it'll be all that more sudden, and by definition unexpected, so waiting makes very little sense to me. You're going to wait for the unexpected? And then time it so that you beat the unexpected? That makes no sense at all. By definition it is unexpected.

theo wrote:Good see you posting again Inflexion.

I tend to think the first to experience a noticeable shortage will be silver, though I have no idea when. At these prices it is the market is very small at 30 billion (as others have said), which is a little less than the GDP of Vietnam. However, the industrial demand is significant and mostly stable, while its supply tends to be inelastic as it is mostly dependent on the mining of other metals such as gold and copper (meaning higher prices will not necessarily bring in more mining supply). Even though the MSM and TPTB have done everything possible to discredit silver as a viable investment, the U.S. mint is on track for another record year of SAE sales. The physical investment community is made of small (yet strong) hands who hold anywhere between several hundred to several thousand ounces who are unlikely to sell at these prices.

Gold IMO is far more controllable since a large percentage of it is held by central banks. Any default between bankers will be (and probably have been) covered up since everybody knows any public failure to deliver will threaten the entire system.; Germany being the prime example. Also the lower industrial demand is far easier to satisfy.

Thanks Theo. My free time has been sucked up lately but I'm trying to make the rounds again.

I think when talking about a shortage we need to differentiate whether we mean physical shortage, or shortage on the existing exchanges. Physical shortage, yes I definitely see silver being first at the current pace, but before that I see the exchanges running out of gold. I would not equate that with a shortage, rather a shift in who holds the gold and thus who is in a position to set the pricing mechanism, which would likely allow the price to rise in order to bring more gold to market before a physical shortage can occur since gold never really disappears. I would only see a physical silver shortage occurring further down the line if it does not also experience a shift in the pricing mechanism to bring more to market, and if that doesn't happen at such time then the physical market will skew from the paper market out of necessity. However, where gold goes, silver usually follows. Industrial demand for silver will always be there, but more than likely the price will adjust accordingly to prevent a shortage from occurring. Whether that might happen before or at the crux of a possible shortage remains to be seen. It's pretty clear that the supply/demand trend for silver over the last century is not sustainable and only growing less so, but we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. Something will come to a head eventually, and the manipulation can't last forever. The $64,000 question is when, and that's anybody's guess. I'm with 68Camaro, better to secure things while you can instead of risking missing the boat to eek out a better profit.

Its never over haha

Well........I guess it just wasn't one guy, as we were supposed to believe.....

Today, via the FT, we get just a hint of what is coming down the pipeline with "Trading to influence gold price fix was ‘routine’."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-0 ... ft-reports