Realcent.org

As I sit here and read an article proposing that Silver may go to $15/toz. before consolidating and finding a bottom; I ponder, who will sell at $15 ??
Will premiums rise to make up for the low prices?
Any thoughts?

There will be sellers at virtually any price you can name, no matter how low. The three D's (death, divorce and desperation (i.e., near bankruptcy)) assure us of that. Think about death alone- how many coin collectors who die have their collections carefully liquidated by someone who really knows what they are doing and acts in the sellers best interests? Probably very few. Those of us who have found rolls of silver halves at banks over the last several years can attest to that. So there will always be sellers.

Now, in terms of supply from the dealers themselves, that is a different story. I remember in October, 2008 going to a dealer who said he would only sell a maximum of two silver American Eagles to each customer. I'm sure he had lots of silver on hand, but not at that price. When silver was about $8.90 an ounce, he wanted about $13.50 or so per ounce for it. He was no fool.

I bet that if someone came in off the street at that time and said "I'm gonna give you $30 an ounce for all the silver you can sell me right now (Editor: when it was $8.90 an ounce and very little was available) and you can't make calls to anyone else to round up additional supply", there would have been lots of silver (probably many bags) coming out of the woodwork to supply the potential buyer! This at the same time that the dealer only had 2 coins available per customer.

Seems like not too long ago the question was asked who would we buy from at $18.

i will be selling!! and buying!!

christostock wrote:i will be selling!! and buying!!

And you'll have the selling market all to yourself

beauanderos wrote:

christostock wrote:i will be selling!! and buying!!

And you'll have the selling market all to yourself

well Ray!!!
It appears that you stopped selling a little while ago!
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it

Double3 wrote:Seems like not too long ago the question was asked who would we buy from at $18.

This is exactly what I was about to post.

I remember people saying there would not be any inventory to buy below $20

There are LOTS of myths, nonsense and propaganda put out there by bullion dealers to generate sales... shameful.

I just love the banter between Ray and Chris.
Have purchased from them both and they always have a deal.
Chris, good to hear you will be still selling at $15. Will be time for me to stack even more.

Well, Ray stopped selling and Chris doesn't sell in small enough quantities for my limited budget.
So i was forced to buy my 2 rolls from MPM rather than spend my money with members here.

http://www.monarchpreciousmetals.com/in ... &Itemid=53

I usually try to sell big lots but I also cater to the small stacker and usually have a small stacker special.
If you don't see what you want posted for sale, just ask. I probably have what you want!!!
I do not post everything I have for sale all the time.

Heck,

I need to set up Chris a $20 allotment from my pay... would save on stamps.

-John

If it drops low enough that there are no sellers maybe RC could get together and take delivery of a contract, LOL.

Treetop wrote:If it drops low enough that there are no sellers maybe RC could get together and take delivery of a contract, LOL.

Chris already has a bunch of 1000 oz silver bars at home, uses them for doorstops

Cent1225 wrote:I just love the banter between Ray and Chris.
Have purchased from them both and they always have a deal.
Chris, good to hear you will be still selling at $15. Will be time for me to stack even more.

If you look at both of our feedback, there are quite a few trades between the 2 of us.
look on Bullionstacker too.

beauanderos wrote:

Treetop wrote:If it drops low enough that there are no sellers maybe RC could get together and take delivery of a contract, LOL.

Chris already has a bunch of 1000 oz silver bars at home, uses them for doorstops

This quote about the doorstops reminds me about a time about 3 years ago when I was in a local coin shop. One of the other customers and I were chatting while I was looking at a 100 (not 1000) oz. silver bar. He told me a story about when he moved. I can't remember the quantity, but I think it was either 2 or 4 of the 100 oz. silver bars that he used as door stoppers. I guess he'd used them for years and had totally forgotten about them.

When he arrived at his new home and unpacked all his stuff, he noticed that the moving van company had stolen the doorstoppers. He filed a claim, but said he never got any of his money back. They wanted proof that he had these expensive silver doorstoppers, and he had no proof- just his word.

By the way, my doorstoppers are made of wood and not worth quite as much as silver bars.

my door stops are 100 year old irons..

It's a bit different this time around than 2008 because:

#1: The price drop has happened much slower
#2: Dealers got a lot better at managing inventory based on what they learned in 2008:

A) Have more "small stuff" on hand, you can sell a big customer all the junk bags or 1
ounce coins they want but it's kinda hard to divy up a 1000 ounce bar between multiple
small customers. (I did hear of some small dealers that literally sawed a 1000 ounce
bar into pieces to do just that, makes resale down the road for those buyers a bit more
akward though.)
B) When you notice a shift in demand levels adjust premiums gradually early on, not after
you are out and waiting for a new shipment from a mint.

Basically in 2008 members of the "1000 ounce club" were still able to get silver, it was only
tight for the 100 ounce and down buyers. Almost everyone trying to buy the dip last time
was middle class and couldn't get together enough cash to buy 1000 ounces in one shot.

A third factor this time around is that the middle class is in a much weaker position, so the
pool of buyers is smaller. If you are just scraping by you aren't going to be buying much
silver at any price.

fansubs_ca wrote:It's a bit different this time around than 2008 because:

#1: The price drop has happened much slower
#2: Dealers got a lot better at managing inventory based on what they learned in 2008:

A) Have more "small stuff" on hand, you can sell a big customer all the junk bags or 1
ounce coins they want but it's kinda hard to divy up a 1000 ounce bar between multiple
small customers. (I did hear of some small dealers that literally sawed a 1000 ounce
bar into pieces to do just that, makes resale down the road for those buyers a bit more
akward though.)
B) When you notice a shift in demand levels adjust premiums gradually early on, not after
you are out and waiting for a new shipment from a mint.

Basically in 2008 members of the "1000 ounce club" were still able to get silver, it was only
tight for the 100 ounce and down buyers. Almost everyone trying to buy the dip last time
was middle class and couldn't get together enough cash to buy 1000 ounces in one shot.

A third factor this time around is that the middle class is in a much weaker position, so the
pool of buyers is smaller. If you are just scraping by you aren't going to be buying much
silver at any price.

Seems to me like a few larger players are slowly moving in, but losing LOTS of
potential small buyers due to the economy... and worse, some previous stackers are having to
sell due to emergencies... and then never find the opportunity to get back in, either due to
disgust/despair/discouragement or having lost a good portion of their income. Also, what was
once discretionary income for alot of people has been eaten up by inflation. If you can't even pay
the bills, you will be tone deaf to the message being broadcast by precious metals and it's ever
fewer advocates.

Good points Ray. We seem to be seeing it even here at RC. The strongest hands may be strong, but it's a shame that some are capitulating now, just before the need is greatest.

That said, it is possible to overextend into PMs. Thus the message repeated by many here ad nauseum that one should get the foundation of insurance (shelter, food, water, medicine, security) in place first before committing much to PMs, and do not eliminate all FRNs as some could be required for early parts of a crisis.

68Camaro - Good thoughts on "overextension". I have a "cash-stash" that I have been scraping together for over a year that is earmarked for some of the provisions mentioned in your last post. Yet, I am so itchy over the last week to splurge it on PM's. I have been stacking for years (on a budget) and your words have convinced me to hold on and stay focused on what I need more. To all the folks on this site, even if we never acknowledge it to each and everyone, your words are wise and have an influence on us all in one way or another. Thanks again 68Camaro

But continue to stack.......

silverflake wrote:68Camaro - Good thoughts on "overextension". I have a "cash-stash" that I have been scraping together for over a year that is earmarked for some of the provisions mentioned in your last post. Yet, I am so itchy over the last week to splurge it on PM's. I have been stacking for years (on a budget) and your words have convinced me to hold on and stay focused on what I need more. To all the folks on this site, even if we never acknowledge it to each and everyone, your words are wise and have an influence on us all in one way or another. Thanks again 68Camaro

But continue to stack.......

There are many good voices on this site, who have also taught me as well. I have grown much over the past 4 years and owe much of that to this site either directly, or indirectly due to the motivation it has given me to learn more and dig deeper. I still have long way to go. But thanks for your words.

christostock wrote:

Cent1225 wrote:I just love the banter between Ray and Chris.
Have purchased from them both and they always have a deal.
Chris, good to hear you will be still selling at $15. Will be time for me to stack even more.

If you look at both of our feedback, there are quite a few trades between the 2 of us.
look on Bullionstacker too.

Without a doubt my 2 favorite sellers. Ray! When are you getting back in? The silver bacon is ready to be hidden again

silverflake wrote:68Camaro - Good thoughts on "overextension". I have a "cash-stash" that I have been scraping together for over a year that is earmarked for some of the provisions mentioned in your last post. Yet, I am so itchy over the last week to splurge it on PM's. I have been stacking for years (on a budget) and your words have convinced me to hold on and stay focused on what I need more. To all the folks on this site, even if we never acknowledge it to each and everyone, your words are wise and have an influence on us all in one way or another. Thanks again 68Camaro

But continue to stack.......

I have to agree with your comments here. 68camero is a good friend that always makes me think about the Big Picture when we talk. Thanks for the wise words they have helped me become a more efficient stacker of PM's and supplies.

fansubs_ca wrote:It's a bit different this time around than 2008 because:

A third factor this time around is that the middle class is in a much weaker position, so the
pool of buyers is smaller. If you are just scraping by you aren't going to be buying much
silver at any price.

The flip side to this is that the U.S. Mint has produced many more Silver American Eagles in the period from 2008-2013 than it did from 2002-2007. Demand exploded when the stock market had the Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. disasters in 2008.

Specifically, the two biggest production years (Uncs. and Proofs combined) in the pre-2008 period were 1987 and 2006 with 12+ million coins minted each year. In 2008 mintage was over 21 million and since then it has NEVER been below 30 million. Now that is an explosion.

I know, demand thus far in 2014 is less than it was last year, but that is a small sample size that can be diluted with things like shortages.

Bigger picture, demand is way up when measuring the most recent compete six year period vs. the one before that.

I do think that a lot of buyers of ASE's are middle class buyers, but there are probably some wealthier buyers buying Monster Boxes (500 coins weighing 500 ounces) as well, so this is probably something that appeals to all classes from what I can tell. It is an unscientific survey because I am not interviewing the people in coin shops and at shows to ask them their net worth and other personal info. But when someone is only buying 1-10 of these at a time, I am (rightly or wrongly) concluding that they are more likely (not absolutely, but more likely) middle class.

Again, not scientific, but I do see a fair number of empty Monster boxes at dealers shops being used for things like cheap foreign coins, resale as an empty box, etc. Also, a fair number on eBay. That tells me there are lots of people who can't afford the Monster Box and want much smaller quantities. I wonder if anyone on this site has empty Monster boxes. I've got about 4- they are all empty- sorry- not for sale.

I meant to add something else to my posting just submitted. Back in 2008 I think a lot of people were blindsided by how swift and severe the decline in the real estate and stock markets was. Now, people are much more appreciative of how interconnected the world's markets are. I would venture to say there are more stackers now than there were pre-Sept. 2008 (when Lehman declared bankruptcy and affected markets all around the world). People have had years of money in the bank earning almost nothing and plenty of time to stock up for the next big market collapse- whenever that will be. I would also dare say there are many more gun owners now than there were pre-Lehman, but I don't have any stats to back that up.