a rush for the exits?
Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:37 amI use Ebay for any purchases I might make in the Ag.
I know some guys here, despise Ebay, and I appreciate that, we all have our own methods.
I come from a pit trading background, thru the 80's and 90's, was on the trading floor during the 87 crash, was on the floor during many a squeeze, and protracted bull/bear markets in the ag markets, that I specialized in, both specs and hedgers, and I noticed this:
lets say we were in a bear market, and she started flatlining for a good spell. Then you would see "paper" (trades from off floor traders) come in heavy on the sell side, but guys in the pit would snap up these sell orders...very quietly, not a lot of noise, just quiet accumulation of whatever commodity was in this condition.
(oh btw, side note, as of 2 July, the CME announced that all open outcry pit trading will END...there's about 300 traders and clerks left in Chicago, and 75 in NY....everything will be done electronically, just one more sign of how WRONG things have gotten, but that's a conversation for another time or maybe never.)
let me go back to my original posit....when you saw this capitulation, lets say on the sell side, with a little questioning and digging, you could ascertain the "quality" of the selling, and if it was the "widow and orphan" crowd, it was a good chance the market had bottomed.
Now I keep my eye on the silver roll offerings on Ebay, both 90's and .999's (or .9999's) and in the last two weeks, I've noriced a very definite uptick in the number of both quality rolls of 90's (and ASE's) but they're NOT coming from the online stores, and if they are, it smells like the dealer paid the melt, and is offering +7-14 over melt for the 90's, and +$3 to $5 over the "board" for .999 ASE's.
its pronounced this uptick in offerings, you see lots of 90's, very frequently 63's and 64's, lots of Washington and Kennedy's. You could say, "how do you know?"......kind of intuition, because i'll see a guy with maybe 200 stars, cluster offer 4 rolls of say 2008 ASE's with a buy it now AND a best offer.....almost like they're tired of waiting for the pop,and MIGHT need to raise cash...I don't know, but my gut tells me, that after the first crash, Lehman 2008, they were introduced to Ag, picked up silver, sat on it for 7 years, look at the board at 17, and think "eff it, this is going nowhere, all the things I read about PM's being the place to be as an investment are bunk, I need cash, I cant wait".
that's what my gut instinct tells me. BUT.....to look at the other side, the global economy is a nightmare, teetering on a precipice, where the fall or implosion will be to much larger than Lehman 2008, which DID carry silver down to $9 a toz. There's two prime indicators I watch to show me the health of the global economy....the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of shipping activity, last I looked the other day, we were making all time lows in that index, 650....on par with 1986....I also watch Monetary Velocity (MV) the rate at which money flows thru the economy (American)....that chart is a spike down, very steep descent.
Now the 'black swan" MIGHT be Greece, I don't know....so if we DO implode, AND silver DOES crack, then all these guys offering rolls on Ebay will look like geniuses, and we go back down to $9 a toz silver, but have you noticed in the last month or so, on the board, that these "bear raids" on both Au and Ag, aren't succeeding as much as they did in prior years?...PLUS from all we've been reading, physical demand GLOBALLY has been VERY robust.
one more point, silver and gold in many foreign currencies is trading at all times highs.
Now I consider myself fairly clever, (although I can frequently be called a "dunceski) but i'm just one middle class guy, (who has got out of the urban/suburban/exurban areas, and live in the sticks) and i'll tell ya, ...for the life of me, I cant figure out what the "game" is, except to say that everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths....no joke.
about 4 days ago, after market close, I was sitting on my couch, looking out at a snow covered pasture, and it hit me, World War Three has already started....not the total blaze of such a conflict, but the kindling has been lit. Y'know, I could go into detail, but you guys can read the signs.
I believe we hit a bottom in PM's, and I believe we are quite near a nasty world conflict, that could impact our beautiful country, though I do hope beyond hope, it doesn't devolve into the "unthinkable".
sad thing is, it didn't have to be this way, but what can you do?.....except of course, plot a course to insulate as best as one can.
okay I said enough....n
I know some guys here, despise Ebay, and I appreciate that, we all have our own methods.
I come from a pit trading background, thru the 80's and 90's, was on the trading floor during the 87 crash, was on the floor during many a squeeze, and protracted bull/bear markets in the ag markets, that I specialized in, both specs and hedgers, and I noticed this:
lets say we were in a bear market, and she started flatlining for a good spell. Then you would see "paper" (trades from off floor traders) come in heavy on the sell side, but guys in the pit would snap up these sell orders...very quietly, not a lot of noise, just quiet accumulation of whatever commodity was in this condition.
(oh btw, side note, as of 2 July, the CME announced that all open outcry pit trading will END...there's about 300 traders and clerks left in Chicago, and 75 in NY....everything will be done electronically, just one more sign of how WRONG things have gotten, but that's a conversation for another time or maybe never.)
let me go back to my original posit....when you saw this capitulation, lets say on the sell side, with a little questioning and digging, you could ascertain the "quality" of the selling, and if it was the "widow and orphan" crowd, it was a good chance the market had bottomed.
Now I keep my eye on the silver roll offerings on Ebay, both 90's and .999's (or .9999's) and in the last two weeks, I've noriced a very definite uptick in the number of both quality rolls of 90's (and ASE's) but they're NOT coming from the online stores, and if they are, it smells like the dealer paid the melt, and is offering +7-14 over melt for the 90's, and +$3 to $5 over the "board" for .999 ASE's.
its pronounced this uptick in offerings, you see lots of 90's, very frequently 63's and 64's, lots of Washington and Kennedy's. You could say, "how do you know?"......kind of intuition, because i'll see a guy with maybe 200 stars, cluster offer 4 rolls of say 2008 ASE's with a buy it now AND a best offer.....almost like they're tired of waiting for the pop,and MIGHT need to raise cash...I don't know, but my gut tells me, that after the first crash, Lehman 2008, they were introduced to Ag, picked up silver, sat on it for 7 years, look at the board at 17, and think "eff it, this is going nowhere, all the things I read about PM's being the place to be as an investment are bunk, I need cash, I cant wait".
that's what my gut instinct tells me. BUT.....to look at the other side, the global economy is a nightmare, teetering on a precipice, where the fall or implosion will be to much larger than Lehman 2008, which DID carry silver down to $9 a toz. There's two prime indicators I watch to show me the health of the global economy....the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of shipping activity, last I looked the other day, we were making all time lows in that index, 650....on par with 1986....I also watch Monetary Velocity (MV) the rate at which money flows thru the economy (American)....that chart is a spike down, very steep descent.
Now the 'black swan" MIGHT be Greece, I don't know....so if we DO implode, AND silver DOES crack, then all these guys offering rolls on Ebay will look like geniuses, and we go back down to $9 a toz silver, but have you noticed in the last month or so, on the board, that these "bear raids" on both Au and Ag, aren't succeeding as much as they did in prior years?...PLUS from all we've been reading, physical demand GLOBALLY has been VERY robust.
one more point, silver and gold in many foreign currencies is trading at all times highs.
Now I consider myself fairly clever, (although I can frequently be called a "dunceski) but i'm just one middle class guy, (who has got out of the urban/suburban/exurban areas, and live in the sticks) and i'll tell ya, ...for the life of me, I cant figure out what the "game" is, except to say that everyday I get more and more evidence that our leadership, and global leadership have devolved into sociopaths....no joke.
about 4 days ago, after market close, I was sitting on my couch, looking out at a snow covered pasture, and it hit me, World War Three has already started....not the total blaze of such a conflict, but the kindling has been lit. Y'know, I could go into detail, but you guys can read the signs.
I believe we hit a bottom in PM's, and I believe we are quite near a nasty world conflict, that could impact our beautiful country, though I do hope beyond hope, it doesn't devolve into the "unthinkable".
sad thing is, it didn't have to be this way, but what can you do?.....except of course, plot a course to insulate as best as one can.
okay I said enough....n
I've been thinking very similar thoughts on a certain scale and the one thing I hadn't considered is that the beginning of WW3 is already upon us just in a different form. Just like the difference between terrorism with casualties that we have all been hearing about and the new new cyber terrorism. Both terrorism to individuals with one being physical and the other being financial. 