This forum is for discussing hunting and collecting US and Canadian circulation Silver Bullion Coins, other types of minted bullion, and other types of precious and base metal investments other than Bullion Pennies and Nickels.
Please Note: These articles are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
From personal observation (web browsing), however, I have noticed premiums rising and stock disappearing or "delayed" (why don't they just say they'll sell you something they don't have?) on ninety percent junk.
While you can't really go wrong on junk silver... as "they are not making any more of it," (aside from the Chinese ) you want to avoid chasing it when high premiums are being demanded; you could get many more ounces for your money if you buy generic rounds. Which brings me to the point of this post.
If you would like to contribute (even if just in a small way) to above ground scarcity of silver, and help nudge forward the eventual true end game price discovery when those stocks eventually are depleted... then direct your purchasing power towards new products that are being fabricated from freshly-sourced silver (ideally from a wholesale dealer who must order from mints), not by buying junk. Junk purchases (and purchases of like products mentioned above, but from the secondary market) just move product from one hand to another, and do nothing to alter the overall picture.
I'm not trying to persuade anyone not to buy junk, heck, that's primarily what my own small hoard consists of. But if you'd like to assist ( a roll here, a ten ounce bar there) in "the death by a thousand small cuts," in order to help thwart those who manipulate pricing (and will not be stopped without sourcing depletion)... then consider this a call to arms.
Just look at Gainesville Coins. They're out of just about everything. There will always be silver out there but the question is what price is necessary to bring it to market. There are only so many weak hands to exploit.
Silver: the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals.
If it's printed on a piece of paper it's worth the paper it's printed on. If it's a digital asset it's worth the electrons in cyberspace.
InfleXion wrote:Just look at Gainesville Coins. They're out of just about everything. There will always be silver out there but the question is what price is necessary to bring it to market. There are only so many weak hands to exploit.
They will sell a roll of quarters for 15X face... but they won't ship until item is in stock, and expect that to be September 9th
InfleXion wrote:Just look at Gainesville Coins. They're out of just about everything. There will always be silver out there but the question is what price is necessary to bring it to market. There are only so many weak hands to exploit.
They will sell a roll of quarters for 15X face... but they won't ship until item is in stock, and expect that to be September 9th
14x face currently at my LCS
“The Bitterness of Poor Quality Lingers Long after the Sweetness of Low Price is forgotten”
I'm starting to become fairly skeptical about reports that dealers are supposedly "out of stock" on their silver. I can't help but think they might just put it in the back room til they can sell it at a profit. But, even if they do that, it is a dangerous game to play. After all, they have to sell a certain amount just to pay employees and rent, so if they put everything in the back room for an extended amount of time, many will be forced to go out of business. Any other thoughts?
Former stock broker w/ ~20 yrs. at one company. Spoke with 100k+ people and traded a lot (long, short, options, margin, extended hours, etc.).
Please note that ANY stocks I discuss, no matter how compelling, carry risk- sometimes substantial. If not prepared to buy it multiple times in modest amounts without going overboard (assuming nothing really wrong with the company), you need to learn more about the market and managing risk. Also, please research covered calls (options) as well.
From personal observation (web browsing), however, I have noticed premiums rising and stock disappearing or "delayed" (why don't they just say they'll sell you something they don't have?) on ninety percent junk.
While you can't really go wrong on junk silver... as "they are not making any more of it," (aside from the Chinese ) you want to avoid chasing it when high premiums are being demanded; you could get many more ounces for your money if you buy generic rounds. Which brings me to the point of this post.
If you would like to contribute (even if just in a small way) to above ground scarcity of silver, and help nudge forward the eventual true end game price discovery when those stocks eventually are depleted... then direct your purchasing power towards new products that are being fabricated from freshly-sourced silver (ideally from a wholesale dealer who must order from mints), not by buying junk. Junk purchases (and purchases of like products mentioned above, but from the secondary market) just move product from one hand to another, and do nothing to alter the overall picture.
I'm not trying to persuade anyone not to buy junk, heck, that's primarily what my own small hoard consists of. But if you'd like to assist ( a roll here, a ten ounce bar there) in "the death by a thousand small cuts," in order to help thwart those who manipulate pricing (and will not be stopped without sourcing depletion)... then consider this a call to arms.
that's a really good post OB....plenty of good food for thought. May I opine, good sir?
before I dig into the "perth mint faq", looking back in history, only to the time I was born 55 years ago, I don't remember one second where OUR government hasn't (and that includes the non-elected perma-government) been systematically and reflexively LYING to us.
"tell us what you regard as "lies" neil".
well, I will if you want, but it would take away from the onus of your post, so let's review Bron's "Perth Mint" FAQ sheet.
I saw an article the other day, I wish I could find it, I think it was Andy Hoffman speaking on any shortage of 1000 toz Ag bars, and he said , by the time we hear of such wholesale shortages, forget buying retail (anywhere from a single ASE coin or Maple, or a roll of either...OR a monster box)...in fact in this 28 minute talk, I think it was on SGTReport....SGT put a new factoid from John Williams at Shadowstats, where John reconfigured, using the metrics the gmmt, USED to use on inflation and posited the all time high, (Hunt Bros squeeze) of Ag to date was $610 a toz....that old high. To the date I read that, I always thought the inflation adjusted Hunt high was $130 a toz Ag. But now, John Williams, one of the few truth tellers out there, says the high was $610 a toz.
so, lets look at what our bud Bron from the Perth Mint said:
"If there is a shortage of coins does that mean there is a shortage of gold/silver and prices will go up?
Shortages of retail forms of gold and silver, [b]which are anything less than 400oz gold bars or 1000oz silver bars[/b], does not necessarily tell us about whether there is a real shortage/price disconnect in the wider precious metals markets. Retail shortages to-date have reflected a shortage in production capacity, rather than a shortage of wholesale gold or silver."
Now, if a man like former Congressman Ron Paul FOR YEARS, used his office and power, to TRY and get an audit of Au held in Fort Knox (lol) and was denied at every juncture, what makes us think we can get a TRUE accounting of the 400 toz Au and 1000 toz Ag market....thru that criminal enterprise known as the Comex?
in fact, I've steadily come to the conclusion WHY , the various price suppressors of PM's are doing what they're doing. Of course, a major element is to buttress the petrodollar.....but though these people are depraved kleptocrats, they're not stupid, they see the handwriting on the wall. IMO, the reason they are driving down the price of the 5,000 toz Ag futures contract ( delivery of five 1000 toz bars) is so THEY can take delivery...THEY can hold onto these crucial wholesale bars, bot in the teens a toz, maybe even drive it lower when we have a REAL stock market sell off......the too big to fail banks, and other entities WANT that silver, they don't want us to have it, because they can see the writing on the wall....
its an old trick, that Jesse Livermore the great stock speculator wrote of, in fact, he said he preferred trading commodities: so lets say Jesse was bullish wheat. (he used both fundamental s/d and charts btw) Jesse instead of buying, would start shorting, to gauge underlying strength....if the market was weak, and giving way under his short selling, he would amp up the selling, until "watching the tape", he would see quality buying coming in, and join in, using his short covering as his "buying"....to see what selling strength lay overhead....lets say 10 cents higher, then he would start shorting again....driving it back down to where the buying came in, if it was absent on the second stab downward, and selling actually picked up, he would stop,and let the selling pick up steam....and at a point he judged appropriate, he would short cover everything, which meant buying....and see again how the market handled that, and if his shortcovering attracted NEW selling, then he would pounce, covering all shorts, and buying EVERYTHING in a 5-10 cent range, this was his initial position.........20 cents higher he would offer to sell a moderate amount of his line, if the market snapped it up, he would on a dime, immediately buy back the cars he sold, and add twice the amount of new longs, cutting thru every offer above the market, and it stayed higher?.....he knew he was right, and then he would do his REAL buying, in numbers, he said the "big money is made in the long pulls".
that's what these huge entities are doing, driving the paper price down, so as they can pick up the metal at cheap prices....not us.
here's some other things I noticed Bron wrote:
"A real gold bank run will manifest itself in the wholesale markets for 400oz gold bars or 1000oz silver bars, so to identify a real physical-paper disconnect occurring you need to look at the premium above spot for 400oz or 1000oz bars.
Unless you are in the professional market you won’t see such bars attracting a premium and/or being difficult to source, or bullion banks desperately bidding on the output of refineries like The Perth Mint. However, there are many online pool allocated storage services which back their accounts with wholesale bars. If there is a real shortage of 400oz or 1000oz bars and thus premiums being asked, then you should see the following being reported by these services (in likely order of occurrence): 1.Reports of difficulties in getting 400oz/1000oz bars 2.Temporary restrictions on how much gold or silver can be bought 3.A widening of their normal buying/selling spreads, or increases in trading fees (to cover the additional premium they are being charged) 4.No longer accepting new clients due to an inability to source wholesale bars".
I bold faced what I thought was important, quite obviously the PM market from wholesale to retail is NOT transparent, and we are retail stackers, where do find the REAL world price and availability of 1000 toz bars? the comex board?.........and by the time item 1 is being noised about....its too late...Item 2 is obviously in force, as is item 3, and item 4 just makes me laugh........"No longer accepting new clients"....that's some bovine scat, look what 68 is going thru over ONE, repeat ONE Gold Maple...."no longer accepting"....what a joke, they WILL take your money, and shimy and shake, and tell all sorts of half truths, or maybe outright lies. (Tulving).....eventually ...MAYBE, after three million head aches, you'll get your metal.....in 2015....but what about in the out years?
here's where I want to tell Bron, to go fornicate himself, I loathe being patronized: "Getting gold/silver from a mine to a coin in your hand involves lots of different people and processes: mining, refining, blanking, minting, distribution and retailing."
No!.....really?....is that how it works? (/sarc) I know Bron is in earnest, and don't mean to rank on him. I know he was tasked with writing this piece, and had to write in the confines with which is assured of keeping his job.
ill quite quoting Bron's piece, (which is well written, and doesn't lie, although omission in some points is in the article) let me discuss your post , my dear OB
'you wrote: "From personal observation (web browsing), however, I have noticed premiums rising and stock disappearing or "delayed" (why don't they just say they'll sell you something they don't have?) on ninety percent junk.
While you can't really go wrong on junk silver... as "they are not making any more of it," (aside from the Chinese ) you want to avoid chasing it when high premiums are being demanded; you could get many more ounces for your money if you buy generic rounds. Which brings me to the point of this post. "
yes, indeed, I've noticed the same thing, in spades...in fact, regarding 90's, i'm seeing an uptick in individual sellers of 90's on Ebay, its almost as if they're just tired, and throwing in the towel....and correct if i'm wrong, I would LOVE to see the avg age of the dedicated stacker.....it cant be below 40 years old, I know that.
Now OB, after Nate posted that picture of counterfeit 90's, I did a real hard turn to starboard. My stack at that point was 75% 90's (as well as Ike 40's and Kenn 40's....very few circ's, just my rolls of Barbers) and 25% .999 ASES...all rolls. I got real disappointed in the Eagles, because if you glass the later models, imo, there's something slightly OFF about them....that's when I discovered the new Maple, and made up my mind 50% 90's and 40's....and 50% .999's and the .9999 Maples I have....i'm within that new parameter I set for myself.
as you said, why pay more for 7.15 toz per $10 FV, when you can get a 25 toz roll of .9999's? I have a comfortable supply of fractionals......but lets walk this our further, what happens, or what do we do, when the wheels come off the wagon, and we go post dollar?
I mean would you sell even one toz of Ag for monopoly money? (fiat).....even IF the fiat paid was 600 "dollars"?.....track a Washington 90%'er, back in the day, say early 60's, a quarter would get you a gallon of gas, or a loaf of bread, right? in 2015, even at todays suppressed prices a 90% Washington Quarter is worth 2.61.....same as a gallon of 87 Octane/with ethanol, (if you put that stuff in your gas tank, I use 91 Octane, no ethanol) and a quality loaf of bread is 2.98....you see the correlation.
If the dollar comes off, and we cant export our inflation overseas anymore, then what? .......and for discussion purposes, lets say Ag IS at 500, how would the 90% quarter formula work out? Gasoline at $100 a gallon, and a loaf of bread at $100?
and remember now the ever increasing urbanization/suburbanization of America, and such areas produce very little food, and quite a few major urban areas have either severe quantity or quality problems with their water supplies....how does the great mass of our fellow citizens react?
Well, we all know how they react when the "leaves are green on the tree", i'm speaking of those horrid "Black Friday" video's. Now i'm going to post a video compilation, that shows many "plastic stuff riots"....and this is just plastic junk these hordes are twigging out over.....that said, raw hunger is a hundred times more powerful a driving force....and bread at $100 a loaf, etc.....can you even imagine what THOSE video's would look like?....here's what the "plastic riots" look like:
quite shameful ,isn't it? Though I find the increased militarization of domestic law enforcement constitutionally disturbing, I sure can understand the reasoning behind this move that is gathering steam.
that's why I say RED ALERT meaning if you can, get out of those cities and suburbs and go rural...in the cities and burbs, you are 9 meals away from anarchy. When is IT all going to happen?...maybe longer than we think, and I say that, because I was a bit surprised how ably the plunge protection team (lol) handled this recent wannabe stock market crash...though the jury is still out on that one.
and as far as our stacks?.....yes, stacks are currency insurance, but how are you going to put them to use?
may I suggest, and I write this from a rural area, use the Ag to buy the means to PRODUCE things people NEED, food, shelter and yes, intoxicants. IMO, if you just use the Ag (or Au) to buy foodstuffs, or "other" things....sooner or later, your stack will diminish, even in a dire "new normal", we want our stack to increase.....
out here, we're thinking of building a large meat smokehouse for meat preservation (my bros idea), buying a sawmill, buying a 1000 gallon water tanker, (we have clean springs, where sweet water pours from the hill into a trout pond) fencing off more pasture to raise chickens for egg and meat....maybe a copper still, plenty of corn, rye and potato's to be had....these are just ideas, we're seriously planning. n
Great post, LB The 1000 gal water tanker is a great idea, water scarcity is starting to poke its ugly head up even now. A corollary to that might be saving/purchasing several thousand plastic bottles so that you could bottle and sell/barter your spring water should water scarcity ever become life threatening (the wheels come off, peak oil disrupts transport, etc).
Another good point you surmised. If they won't let an audit be conducted upon Fort Knox... then how can anyone accurately ascertain what the COMEX stocks really are? They can say whatever they want... but does that stuff get audited? By who? The CME... the CFTC? Yeah, right!
Furthermore... just who is it that is thwarting an audit of Fort Knox? What do they know that we don't?
out here, we're thinking of building a large meat smokehouse for meat preservation (my bros idea), buying a sawmill, buying a 1000 gallon water tanker, (we have clean springs, where sweet water pours from the hill into a trout pond) fencing off more pasture to raise chickens for egg and meat....maybe a copper still, plenty of corn, rye and potato's to be had....these are just ideas, we're seriously planning. n
Dont forget goats for milk and meat. so much easier to feed if tshtf then chickens. I get 1000s of calories a day from mine much of the year. Even if your in a place you can free range chickens well it is much easier to grow or source food for goats. Not hard to have a few fenced in somewhere waiting for you to rely on them later. Very low input animal if you have some good fencing. Something to consider anyway. Rabbits are also much easier to grow for meat then chickens, also might consider a few of those on the side somewhere waiting to be useful. Back up for back ups.
We got a few thousand gallons of water storage awhile back. Enough it could cover basic needs for a year, and we could re fill it each winter when our stream runs if the well isnt working. Also gives us a buffer if the well breaks and we cant fix it right off. Sleep alot easier on that issue now being that Im in the high desert.
If you ever have to rely on potatoes remember to take this seriously... save the actual seeds. Once you grow em, you should find fruits on some plants that once ripe have the actual potatoe seeds in them often called TPS (true potato seeds) Save some of these, seeds store with no major preparations for decades. If disease ever wipes out your potatoes youd then have a back up. disease build up in the soil with potatoes is a very real thing.
ton of other plants I could suggest but otatoes always reminds me of jerusalem artichokes. Any of you growing food if you take one thing I ever said seriously (actually 2 use charcoal!!! trust me on that, your soil will grow food better for 100s of years) then grab some jerusalem artichokes. They out produce potatos!!! Way easier to grow also, not as tasty, but get them growing in a spot off on the side. Few know wth it is, and youll have masses of food with little effort. they do well enough on their own, but treat them like a regular crop and they out produce most any annual crop Im aware of. lol my take anyway. Never put all your eggs in one basket as they say.
Just some ideas, to each their own of course. But Ive been chipping away at growing our food for awhile now and some of the more common things people do arent always the most efficient or easiest to maintain off grid. Obviously Im a huge fan of having a diverse (read VERY diverse) orchard of berries, fruits and nuts as well. But Ive probably said that part enough, lol.
How are your goats now, BTW? Guess this is getting way off topic, sorry OP.
In the game of Woke, the goal posts can be moved at any moment, the penalties will apply retroactively and claims of fairness will always lose out to the perpetual right to claim offense.... Bret Stephens The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it. George Orwell. We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. Ayn Rand.
68Camaro wrote:How are your goats now, BTW? Guess this is getting way off topic, sorry OP.
Well the loss hurt, besides simply having less animals I need to go back to sourcing new ones with the traits I desire, (not mandatory I have good stuff now but will make them easier to work with, and more efficient) but the silver lining is that my set up really should be as perfected as Im able to get it now. Nothing but humans should be able to hurt me now.
InfleXion wrote:Just look at Gainesville Coins. They're out of just about everything. There will always be silver out there but the question is what price is necessary to bring it to market. There are only so many weak hands to exploit.
They will sell a roll of quarters for 15X face... but they won't ship until item is in stock, and expect that to be September 9th
14x face currently at my LCS
Go in there with LOTS of cash and make an offer. You should be able to get him down to 13x or 12x.
It's absolutely essential to firmly establish your AU and AG buy/sell network before a crisis occurs. Without mutual trust from others, you'll be left on the deck of the Titanic like so many others who were able to only do too little too late. No life jacket needed. Just be good to your word.
"I don't know what I'm doin' but I'm sure havin' fun" Herman Munster
I've recently adopted the Groucho Marx philosophy for dealing with politics and other life challenges, "Whatever it is, I'm against it!" (Horse Feathers 1932)
Know Common Cents wrote:It's absolutely essential to firmly establish your AU and AG buy/sell network before a crisis occurs. Without mutual trust from others, you'll be left on the deck of the Titanic like so many others who were able to only do too little too late. No life jacket needed. Just be good to your word.
the trouble with some scenarios, an EMP, for instance... is that your network would only be local. If the grid is down, you aren't going to have online buyers and sellers any more.
Know Common Cents wrote:It's absolutely essential to firmly establish your AU and AG buy/sell network before a crisis occurs. Without mutual trust from others, you'll be left on the deck of the Titanic like so many others who were able to only do too little too late. No life jacket needed. Just be good to your word.
Personally, I stress the opposite. NEVER let anyone know you have phyz PM. It's a great way to set yourself up as a target for theft. When times get truly desperate, people do desperate things.
Know Common Cents wrote:It's absolutely essential to firmly establish your AU and AG buy/sell network before a crisis occurs. Without mutual trust from others, you'll be left on the deck of the Titanic like so many others who were able to only do too little too late. No life jacket needed. Just be good to your word.
Personally, I stress the opposite. NEVER let anyone know you have phyz PM. It's a great way to set yourself up as a target for theft. When times get truly desperate, people do desperate things.
VERY true..........and in such case , my state enacted :
"castle doctrine law. Effective XXXXX 2011, the law affords a presumption of immunity in civil and criminal actions to individuals who use deadly force in self-defense against persons unlawfully or forcibly entering their home, motor vehicle, or place of business. It also prohibits consideration of whether the actor had an opportunity to flee or retreat before he or she used force."
i'm here 99% of the time, and would give more thought to popping a woodchuck, than I would to some demoniac trying the crack the front door. That said, even in such cases, God forbid, having to "go cold hearted" would not be, without a cost to my soul, human life is precious...EVERY LIFE, and to even contemplate enforcing this (self preservation) law, would have hellish ramifications to me personally, that is why I ABSOLUTELY agree with Penny.........in the case of Au/Ag holdings?....zip lock mouths.
Now when it comes time to use PM's in a post dollar scenario, however that walks itself out, zip lock mouth is out, because when you trade Ag or Au for goods, especially in a rural area, it aint gonna be like Mayberry RFD. People can be cunning, they'll recon you, and your movements, and if they know you can get lethal....they might just bring a few other desperado's at 2AM.
But that's why they made 30 round clips. God bless the 2nd Amendment.
My local LCS wants 15X when they have it. Keep asking me when I walk in if I have any to sell but they are not paying top $$ for it yet only selling it for that.
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: Go in there with LOTS of cash and make an offer. You should be able to get him down to 13x or 12x.
This wont work when the big boys are paying huge premiums to get this stuff!!!! Just sayin
I do it all the time. Try this... walk into your LCS and expose a stack of hundred dollar bills in front of the owners eyes. Tell him you'll buy all the 90% he's got for 12x face. The worse thing he can do is say no.
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: Go in there with LOTS of cash and make an offer. You should be able to get him down to 13x or 12x.
This wont work when the big boys are paying huge premiums to get this stuff!!!! Just sayin
I do it all the time. Try this... walk into your LCS and expose a stack of hundred dollar bills in front of the owners eyes. Tell him you'll buy all the 90% he's got for 12x face. The worse thing he can do is say no.
you are local to me (I think)? so what towns do you find these 12X deals???
Now accepting direct payments through Wells Fargo bank and TD bank.
)
The 1000 gal water tanker is a great idea, water scarcity is starting to poke its ugly head up even now. A corollary to that might be saving/purchasing several thousand
