What if it's Different this time?

[beauanderos]

You read the commentaries from guys like Bron Suchecki, who says retailers are only out of small product because
of bottleneck's. In another thread, this was reinforced by a link provided by Copper Catcher.

This may apply to newly-fabricated products from gov't/private mints, sure... it's understandable when presented
as they did.

What about ninety percent junk silver? Common wisdom (normalcy bias) says that the high premiums on junk
is temporary and, that if you're willing to wait, junk will trickle back into the coffers at the online dealers and their
margins will shrink. Or, that prices will rise and the dealer's will return the stock they were holding back, or that higher
prices (when spot increases) offered by the LCS will entice people to sell (good luck with that).

BUT...

What if this time is different? What if the meager dribbles of junk silver we see listings for is the last gasp of ready
supply? Will those who wait for reasonable premiums on the junk they desire be punished, rather than rewarded?

I don't really think this is much different than backwardation. Some individuals are willing to pay what others scorn as
unreasonably high premiums on junk (where's JFF when we need him ) because they'd rather have cold hard metal
in their hands, obtained at the price of a few more worthless bills of fiat... than wait (and hope!) that prices will recede.

What think you? Wait... and hope to find/buy (better be damned quick!) when bargains appear? Or grab what you can
while you still can? I predict that even the outrageously high priced websites offering junk will sell out as well, so that
you will soon discover across the board scarcity of junk. Particularly if the price suppression continues or intensifies.

And yes, you can still find buy it now junk on ebay (for now) at 15.5 to 16X face... or get into bidding wars and pay shipping on top.



If you're willing to turn your money over to ANY online dealer, and wait six weeks for delivery, better hope they're not another
Tulving or BullionDirect

[johnbrickner]

Different or not, I pretty much stopped buying 90% when the premiums went above spot, and then 80% at the same. More than happy with what I've got and will not pay the premiums for more!

[wheeler_dealer]

As evidenced by the quickly sold offerings here and across the board. 90% is in high demand even with the premiums.
I fondly recall a statement heard often by my wise (millionaire) younger brother. " the government will always make more money"
They aren't making anymore junk 90% coin

[Thogey]

As evidenced by the quickly sold offerings here and across the board. 90% is in high demand even with the premiums.
I fondly recall a statement heard often by my wise (millionaire) younger brother. " the government will always make more money"
They aren't making anymore junk 90% coin

No they aren't making junk 90% coin, the humble citizens of Guangdong are.

[wheeler_dealer]

Lucky us

[Rosco]

Its the Peace $ at $25 ++ when melt is $11.35 and Morgans above that

When LCS is spot + $2.00 for .999 fresh Minted

[pennypicker]

Its the Peace $ at $25 ++ when melt is $11.35 and Morgans above that

When LCS is spot + $2.00 for .999 fresh Minted

I'll never forget back in 2011 when silver was at $40 and the LCS (Eugene Coin & Jewelry) in beautiful Eugene, Oregon was buying ASE's for $40 and Peace dollars for $25...
...that's why I will never again buy Peace dollars and will always buy an ASE instead...especially now when I can buy an ASE for $18 and a Peace for $20+. The ASE has far more of an upside.

[68Camaro]

Peace dollars for $25 when spot is at $40 makes no sense. The melt value of them would be $32. I think your memory of that detail is off, but if not it definitely was an odd one off situation with a specific shop at a particular time.

But your point is taken - when prices rise the premiums on 90% usually drop to near zero while ASEs will usually retain at least 1-2 over.

[pennypicker]

Peace dollars for $25 when spot is at $40 makes no sense. The melt value of them would be $32. I think your memory of that detail is off, but if not it definitely was an odd one off situation with a specific shop at a particular time.

But your point is taken - when prices rise the premiums on 90% usually drop to near zero while ASEs will usually retain at least 1-2 over.

That LCS at that time had a huge demand for ASE's and 1 oz generic silver rounds. There was very little demand for junk Peace dollars and when the owner would build up a pile of say 200 or so he would just wholesale them off. This was a high-volume LCS with six employees regularly manning the counter and even then there was usually a line to get serviced. He paid good money for what he could turn quickly (ASE's and 1 oz generic rounds) and little money for that which gathered dust. In fact every LCS I called that day in western Oregon had consistent buy/sell spreads on ASE's (roughly $4) and very wide spreads on Peace dollars with one shop in Albany, Oregon having a $10 spread on Peace dollars.

At that time silver melt on the Peace was $30.90.

[fansubs_ca]

Well, each time we go around this there is less 90% on the table because in the intervening
periods where it's around or below spot some gets smelted and there is always the trickle
of coins that are either made into jewlery or sometimes simply lost. So the amount of
demand that it takes to make the market "tight" is less than what it did last time.

That said pick a different form that's a bit less tight if you are in buying mode. Though
I'm hanging on to the 90% I have right now, I'm not really buying more either at this exact
moment so the premium doesn't directly or immediately affect me.

Are those of you who regularily go into a local coin shop finding the dealers are just making
their spread on 90% wider or are you finding a serious premium on their offering price as well?

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Different or not, I pretty much stopped buying 90% when the premiums went above spot, and then 80% at the same. More than happy with what I've got and will not pay the premiums for more!

Same here. My thoughts exactly.