Friday 4 Sep 15 0745, get ready for a stomping

[neilgin1]

Europe and Asian stock markets got crushed, Japan down 2%, Europe's FTSE, DAX and CAC all down almost 2%.

I noticed on the Comex, Ag's front month is Dec with an open of 122,000 cars, which is large OI, and as pre-open, all US stock futures are down pretty good, I would wager, paper Ag "futures" are going to get a pretty good stomping today......could even push them under $14.....which as I see it is this...in collusion, lets say the bank prop desks just short the dickens out of the futures, where an entity like Goldman has resting buy orders under $14, and again "the way I see it", these buy orders aren't spec orders, but buy orders meant to take delivery in Dec, said contract being those five 1000 toz wholesale 65 lb bumper sized loaves of Ag.

I could TOTALLY wrong, but its been the game all along, that these mega size entities turn into mega sized "stackers", buying mega sized stacks WAY underneath the cost of production....thus when needed, by industry, or various mints, whoever, "they" after raping so many, will control price, when REAL supply and demand can no longer be gamed.

Today, imho, will be a HUGE test for both Ag...AND stocks......I don't get the feeling the "PPT" is going to enter the fight on the buy side....in fact they might do the opposite, and I say this, because one of the old canards drilled into our heads was "the trend is your friend".......which is true, when markets WERE a place TRUE price discovery was allowed to take place.

and the irony of the whole thing is the "holiday" this weekend is Labor Day....sick irony as the new motto of "labor" in our land should be either, "will you supersize that?"....or maybe some ill paid grandmother sitting on a chair, forced smile, saying listlessly , "Welcome to Walmart".

forgive me for being a bummer, just gotta say it as I see it, n

[pitw]

I'm betting the world is still standing when I get home.

[neilgin1]

I'm betting the world is still standing when I get home.

sound bet.

But, would you buy a car of Dec Silver , RIGHT NOW, at 14.51?.......or the ES at 1926.50 basis Sep?

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

End of the day ramp job would not surprise me.

[68Camaro]

Far from the end of the world, but it's a slow-motion train wreck and hard not to watch with some horrid fascination.

Europe ended down 2.4-2.8 % for a fourth weekly loss in a row, German DAX is in a "death cross", Hang Seng down for 7 days in a row. The US PPT may allow a gradual decline to the low -2s to be close but slightly better. I believe they're really looking for ammo to justify QE4, so a long gradual slide from the highs is - IMO, from their POV - not undesirable.

The MSM reaction to the jobs report is, as usual, hysterically funny, as despite the jobs "created" being largely fictitious jobs (analytical model based on population stats) rather than real jobs, and the balance being largely part-time and/or minimum wage jobs, and despite the record number of people leaving the labor participation pool (dwarfing the jobs created number), and the record low (since 1977, when women started entering the workforce in greater numbers) labor participation rate, the MSM focuses on the manipulated unemployment rate which they've now stated as 5.1% - a totally bogus number, but one that they can be "proud" of.

But the larger private market isn't fooled by that. Combined with continued bad news from China and German factory orders are down 1.4% just in the last month. The street knows that things aren't right.

[beauanderos]

Watch Out…
Here Comes “Quantitative Tightening”


BY BILL BONNER, CHAIRMAN

BONNER & PARTNERS



bill bonner
GUALFIN, Argentina – U.S. stocks were mostly flat yesterday. Investors didn’t know whether they were coming or going.

We don’t know, either. But we rate the odds of “going” a lot higher than the odds of “coming.”

As we pointed out yesterday, there are two possibilities…

What we’ve seen over the past two weeks or so is a correction in a continuing bull market in stocks. Or we are in the early stages of a major bear market.

Most likely, it will be interpreted both ways. Because we probably are at the beginning of a bear market. And also not too far away from another explosive move higher for stocks.


Fixers on the Job
Why?

Because the authorities are not likely to let a bear market proceed in the normal way.

Instead, as it intensifies, they are likely to intervene with such massive force (remember, this is war!) that it will send stocks flying, like the bumper of an automobile that has just hit a land mine.

Yesterday, Wall Street’s shills in the mainstream press were out in force explaining that in a pullback like this investors could expect to wait four months before the market has fully recovered.

We suspected that this phenomenon describes something other than the normal functioning of a healthy market. So we asked our research team to have a look.

There were two major corrections since 2009. In each case, stocks recovered all their losses within about four months.

But if you look carefully, you see that this was hardly a case of natural market forces at work. Instead, the fixers from the Fed were on the job.

In both instances, the Fed announced new liquidity programs near the bottom of the corrections. Stocks headed up again soon after.

Take a look at the chart. You’ll see what was going on.

(can't get the chart to load!) Chart reveals sharp sell-offs (16% plunge, 19% plunge) in the S & P 500 followed in short course with recoveries, which magically, coincide with QE1, and Operation Twist

What this reveals is not a solid bull market, with periodic sell-offs, followed by a healthy revival of buying. Instead, it’s a market so heavily rigged by the feds that it can only be kept aloft by huge doses of credit easing.

“Quantitative Tightening”
And as we said yesterday, U.S. dollar liquidity is drying up.

The Fed is no longer expanding its balance sheet by way of QE. And bank lending is too weak to drive significant economic growth.

But there is another important source of U.S. dollar liquidity: foreign nations recycling their dollar foreign exchange reserves.

Here’s our friend and economist Richard Duncan on how this works:

The Fed was not the only central bank creating fiat money and buying dollar assets last year.

In order to prevent their currencies from appreciating, many central banks around the world created their own money and used it to buy the dollars entering their economies as a result of their trade surpluses with the U.S.

Once they had acquired the dollars, they invested them in U.S dollar assets to earn a return. This, then, was a second source of liquidity. It can be measured by the increase in foreign exchange reserves.


China – with its roughly $4 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves – was the biggest source of this kind of liquidity.

But here’s Bloomberg, reporting on how falling foreign exchange reserves in China are now leading to what it describes as “Quantitative Tightening”:



2015 will mark the peak of reserve accumulation after two decades of growth with China in the vanguard as its new currency regime means it has to pare reserves to avoid a free fall in the yuan. It has already reduced its holdings to $3.65 trillion from $3.99 trillion in 2014.

“This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy,” said [George] Saravelos [head of European foreign exchange strategy at Deutsch Bank] and colleagues in a report to clients on Tuesday.

“The path to ‘normalization’ will likely remain slow and fraught with difficulty.”


No Honest Market
All of this is just a warning. This is a rigged market. And the riggers are not rigging it as aggressively as they need to in order to keep prices going up.

In an honest stock market, you do not need the Fed to pump in liquidity so that corporations can take advantage of cheap credit to buy their own shares.

In an honest market, people invest their savings – carefully studying which stocks are likely to pay them the most reliable and/or most abundant dividends. They buy stocks in solid business, trusting management to fructify their investments with growth and income.

In an honest market, a 10% correction may be sufficient to set things right again.

But that is not what you see in the chart above. The feds have pushed this market out of line.

Now, it is subject to a major reversal…

Regards,

Signature

Bill

[InfleXion]

Volatility is getting a bit silly. Multi-hundred down days, multi-hundred up days in the Dow. It's all trending downward at a pretty steady rate in spite of the PPTs. All US equity markets are death crossing the 50 DMA over the 200 DMA, even the Russell 2000. The Dow is on the verge of the 50 crossing the 300. Elliot wave theorists are pointing out that we appear to be heading for a huge down move stemming from the start of QE1. Ron Paul is putting out TV commercials that a crash is coming. And then there's all the Shemitah hubbub.

I have to say, the contrarian in me is getting skeptical with seemingly everybody expecting more downside, but the only way I can think of that things don't crash here is if the Fed and central banks around the world choose unprecedented QE. That to me is the question. Do they want it to crash now, in which case raising interest rates would likely bring that about in short order, or do they want to kick the can some more after head faking everybody? Would kicking the can even work, or is it so full of debt that somebody might break their foot?

[neilgin1]

six minutes after the close.....they failed......or maybe not. Maybe the "order" was to be "buying" (with our tax dollars) so the numerous mutual funds, hedge funds, can go to cash.

but you know what?...this is all way way beyond where the Dow closes on a September Friday in 2015, and I ask the question:

Can you see the Four Horsemen?

[TXSTARFIRE]

Watched the first 13 minutes, it was excellent. I think I have seen this before, do you know what year it was done?

Thanks for the post,
tt

[neilgin1]

Watched the first 13 minutes, it was excellent. I think I have seen this before, do you know what year it was done?

Thanks for the post,
tt

you know what?......I don't know, really sorry.