Nice Up Day... How Long will it Last?

[beauanderos]

Silver and Gold both had a nice spike and held it into the close. What does tomorrow hold?
Rate hike? Yes or no?

[pennypicker]

Well I guess if the fed raises rates tomorrow it will lead to a stronger dollar and thus lower PMs...maybe, probably, perhaps....heck I'm tired of thinking about it.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Head-fake rally. Won't last long.

Wait long enough and supply will replenish and premiums will come back down.

[wheeler_dealer]

Fed needs to save face. .25 bp silver and gold will raise slightly.

[Rodebaugh]

Ray's 50 choice poll. Choose wisely.

[knibloe]

wanted to be a democrat and vote multiple times.

[henrysmedford]

Posting to add a PM chart.

[pitw]

[L],I always think it is going up tomorrow.

[Gamecock]

It seems to always jump up when the fed has a policy meeting, then drop back down the next day or next week.

[beauanderos]

It seems to always jump up when the fed has a policy meeting, then drop back down the next day or next week.

I seem to have just the opposite recall (of course, my memory sucks). Seems to me they would always hammer it leading into the meetings, or options
expiry... and then slowly let it recover the following few days. They hate it when it has two up days in a row.

[InfleXion]

My gut feels that they will postpone the rate hike for now and raise .25 basis points in December, and that metals will continue to be rangebound until market turbulence picks up, whether due to an impending rate hike or general consequences of debt bubbles bursting.

Elliot Wave theorists point to the current up move in the Dow as being expected as the last "B" up move before a big "C" waterfall that could potentially bring the Dow as low as 4,000 if the longterm megaphone pattern plays out. If this does occur, I expect paper metals to be liquidated as well and the supply picture to become front and center.

[68Camaro]

My gut feels that they will postpone the rate hike for now and raise .25 basis points in December, and that metals will continue to be rangebound until market turbulence picks up, whether due to an impending rate hike or general consequences of debt bubbles bursting.

Elliot Wave theorists point to the current up move in the Dow as being expected as the last "B" up move before a big "C" waterfall that could potentially bring the Dow as low as 4,000 if the longterm megaphone pattern plays out. If this does occur, I expect paper metals to be liquidated as well and the supply picture to become front and center.

That's a reasonable sequence to consider.

That said, that the Fed didn't hike, after years of saying they would, and hinting that this was the month, should send a message to some of the remaining people that are in normalcy bias, that things are NOT good. It might actually backfire on the Fed, if that sentiment catches on. Of course the Fed can't really hike any substantial amount for any substantial amount of any time, we know that. And they know that. And they know we know that. Now we know for sure that they know that we know that they know that. So they will now blame their failure to hike on other countries, as they did today. It's not the US that's in trouble. It's the GLOBAL problem.

While I think Elliot Wave has some validity (at least in hindsight) as a predictor of human behavior, rather like Asimov's "Foundation, Foundation and Empire, Second Foundation" trilogy, Elliot Wave falls apart in these markets because it can't predict what happens when the data that forms the wave is itself manipulated. Which they are now doing. So I think it is totally unreliable these days, but still interesting.

[InfleXion]

Yeah, I'm not a huge proponent of Elliott Wave theory as I've yet to see it be a reliable indicator first hand, and I 100% agree that in a manipulated market you can't rely on chart analysis. To me the megaphone pattern does carry more weight though than the Elliott Wave, because both the dot com bubble and the 2008 housing bubble set that up. Now that the Fed's credibility is shot and they are admitting to the world through their actions that the economy is not well without ZIRP, I wouldn't be surprised to see downside no matter what they do going forward. Raising rates amounts to taking the patient off their life saving medicine, and doing anything else undermines confidence in the economy. I think it's a foregone conclusion that central banks will eventually lose control since the solution they have to the problem (more debt) is the same as the problem they're "trying" to solve (vicious cycles / feedback loops are not sustainable), and this is a pretty relevant milestone toward that end.

[fansubs_ca]

wanted to be a democrat and vote multiple times.

No, you can't vote under Ardent Listener's account...