this might be a black swan

[neilgin1]

the Chinese keep things close to the vest, but this is news that can carry terrible ramifications:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-2 ... bad-loan-s

[InfleXion]

This is concerning on a couple levels, particularly that they are increasing margin debt, where leverage is a big part of the problem to begin with. Also by easing, as one of the world's stronger currencies, it makes the USD that much stronger, and with China and the other emerging markets devaluing, and Europe in negative interest rate mode, all this essentially equates to an implicit effect of a US rate hike.

The big thing to me is that President Xi will be making his first ever address to the UN. The winds of change are blowing.

[neilgin1]

The big thing to me is that President Xi will be making his first ever address to the UN. The winds of change are blowing.

nice read, didn't even occur to me, that IS the big thing in all this, because we all KNOW where global financial markets will head eventually, but the more important question after the dust settles is, whats next?

Flex, I just remember I saw this 19 minute piece on the PRC, (I might have even posted it) its James Corbett, very sober and thoughtful alt journalist, I think you'll find it of profit:

[InfleXion]

Well Neil, now that I'm settled in for the night with a cold one I can finally unwind a bit and watch this vid of yours.

But first, a little story. Every day when I leave work I make a snap decision about what direction to take home. Do I take the freeway south or go northbound briefly so that I can hit the less traveled back road. There are multiple factors.. what time of day it is, I wouldn't dare try the freeway during the heat of rush our. Obviously if one direction is severely backed up I will avoid that one, but you can't see what's around the corner. There are always places to hop off and zigzag my way back if I need to so sometimes I just let the wheel do what it wants to do. Today I wasn't in the heat of rush hour, maybe 45 minutes past closing time, but I knew there'd still be some residual traffic so I opted for the less traveled road thinking the scenic route would do just fine. Well the freeeway that direction was backed up for quite a ways with sirens everywhere, just not far enough for me to tell in advance. No problem, I'll hop off the side exit instead of merging onto the main drag. Get around the corner, and then we come to a stop where there's no reason to stop. I can see that there are cars stopped ahead of me not moving, and to the side of me not moving, and sure enough within a couple minutes the line behind me is as far as I can see. They had all the roads in the vicinity completely shut down, for guess who. President Xi that wily old coot. Helicopters overhead, I sat in my car with countless other strangers for 40 minutes waiting for his majesty to finish up at the school he was visiting. Getting to see the convoy almost made it worth the wait.

[neilgin1]

Well Neil, now that I'm settled in for the night with a cold one I can finally unwind a bit and watch this vid of yours.

But first, a little story. Every day when I leave work I make a snap decision about what direction to take home. Do I take the freeway south or go northbound briefly so that I can hit the less traveled back road. There are multiple factors.. what time of day it is, I wouldn't dare try the freeway during the heat of rush our. Obviously if one direction is severely backed up I will avoid that one, but you can't see what's around the corner. There are always places to hop off and zigzag my way back if I need to so sometimes I just let the wheel do what it wants to do. Today I wasn't in the heat of rush hour, maybe 45 minutes past closing time, but I knew there'd still be some residual traffic so I opted for the less traveled road thinking the scenic route would do just fine. Well the freeeway that direction was backed up for quite a ways with sirens everywhere, just not far enough for me to tell in advance. No problem, I'll hop off the side exit instead of merging onto the main drag. Get around the corner, and then we come to a stop where there's no reason to stop. I can see that there are cars stopped ahead of me not moving, and to the side of me not moving, and sure enough within a couple minutes the line behind me is as far as I can see. They had all the roads in the vicinity completely shut down, for guess who. President Xi that wily old coot. Helicopters overhead, I sat in my car with countless other strangers for 40 minutes waiting for his majesty to finish up at the school he was visiting. Getting to see the convoy almost made it worth the wait.

hoe!!! my my my.....Flex, I don't believe in things like accidental occurrences, and there's a metaphor in there, a lesson of sorts, and I cant put my finger on what it is.

when I was "living" thru your story, something came into my mind. almost like I've dreams like that. I believe in the Creator, or God, or Yahweh, whatever a soul wishes to call God, and I believe there are things we CANT see with the natural eye, hence I also believe that there is absolute GOOD, and absolute EVIL on any given day, whether seen with our natural eyes, and unseen.

Stay with me, i'm getting "there". Now our current mythology is within film or TV shows, and when I say TV, I receive everything via the Net, Netflix, Amazon, or Vudu. (I also watch baseball via MLB.Tv) One genre I never watch is the "horror" genre, not because I 'frighten", but because I think all of that is of dark construction, ie....the evil wins out, which all humankind will find is a LIE.

(we could get into the whole , why does God allow evil to exist? question, but that's REALLY going off topic, and grist for a whole long discourse,anyway)

Now, have you noticed in recent years, maybe from the turn of the century, how many apocalyptic genre films and shows there are?

THAT, is not an accident either. I don't watch what would be called "zombie" films, but when I saw that a very dear friend and mentor created a show called "The Walking Dead", so I watched, and immediately realized that this just wasn't a "zombie" piece, that it operated on many different levels and metaphors of the human condition, and was immediately riveted to this myth. ( I last saw him in 2005, when I was writing my last piece, because I had gotten in a story/writing jam, couldn't find a way to make the "curveball break", called him, we sat in his pad, and within an hour, he had fixed my "pitch", made that "curve" break, this was my last "thing", Thank God it was a huge success, and I retired, and went into the deep woods, because as this nation has turned into the "deep state", full of lies and foul institutional behavior, like a coyote, I went into the deep woods...I did see him in 2014, and he had been treated VERY shabbily by the people who he had brought us success vis-à-vis "The Walking Dead", and I had the good fortune to tell him how proud I was of him, the way he comported himself after this betrayl, ie, no whining in the public square, just let the lawyers yield the knives and say nothing...its a terrible business)

let me get back to my point....to me "The Walking Dead", these poor souls, who are dead, and feast on the living, technically "zombies" are a metaphor, for people, who will one day, come unhinged when the normalcy bias they have firmly planted in their very being, is demolished.....and when you wrote about wondering whether to take route a or route b....and then getting stuck on route b, it struck me, that MAYBE one day, even such a "small" decision carries life or death implications. I don't mean to get heavy or weird, but every fibre of my being is on high alert. (and NO!...i'm not pitching a "zombie apocalypse", for lands sake! lol)

allow me to continue, I "think" in films, or rather put the mythology of our day, I cant help it, I made myths, now I make firewood, but to "tell" you, how I feel, i'm going to pin the opening prologue of The Fellowship of the Ring, and its 4 minutes, but the first 30 second that Cate B speaks, is EXACTLY what I feel in my spirit, listen to it carefully, in fact the whole trilogy that Professor Tolkien wrote and Peter Jackson directed is an almost PERFECT metaphor of these twisted times. In fact, i'm of the opinion that what are called "TPTB" have slipped on "The One Ring", and have become wholly twisted, consumed by their terrible lusts, for wealth, for power, with no thought of life, they will do anything to serve their master, which is money,power, wealth, greed and if need be murder, and its wholesale form, war....in fact, have you noticed, we hear more and more everyday about the possibility of WW3 and the use of nuclear weaponry. Its that metaphor, "The One Ring", that binds and blinds them all, they forget the beauty and sweep of Life, the soar of being hugged and loved, the joy of a good meal with family, they forget everything that's pure and good in this world, because of the One Ring they have slipped on.....first 30 seconds here, though the whole 4 minutes are good



One final point to slightly tortured post, now "The Walking Dead" folks have a spin off entitled "Fear the Walking Dead", whereas the original show picked up AFTER the "zombie apocalypse" was in full swing in Atlanta, this spin off, takes places in LA, 2 beats before the whole thing hits, and the audience KNOWS whats coming, and can see the small signs of the oncoming tsunami of hell, but the main characters miss them, or don't know what to make of them, until the whole mess breaks...episode 4 just aired, its good, (though not as adroit had my mentor been at the helm).....but the point is the small signs are largely ignored or shrugged off.

I've had a couple of small signs, one we all had together: how hard it is to stack, the emptying shelves of Ag....I had another one; earlier this year, I made two large food purchases via wally world dot....I divide between cases of canned goods for intermediate term storage, and buckets and cans of long term food stuffs, usually from Augason Farms, a great company, stuff isn't cheap, but with shelf lives of between 10-25 years, its a good deal....yesterday, I was buying canned stuff to send my college attending son, and I went to Augason farms and EVERYTHING I had bought in those two previous purchases had underneath it...."Out of Stock"

there are many reasons one can attribute to that, but, imho....its a sign.

Flex, here's the scene I remembered when I read your "route story", I'll share two. btw, I think you have a fine mind, and I enjoy our discourses.

[InfleXion]

I won't be able to watch these new videos for a little bit still, but I can at least comment on the other! It's strange how easy it seems to forget that China's rise to an economic powerhouse was not ingenuity, was not shrewd capitalism, was not providing a good or service that someone else could not provide. No, they simply have the most advanced and "successful" child and human labor exploitation system. Their rise to power has been on the backs of the poor. I don't really see any good guys in this global chess game, but its been said that sons pay for the sins of their fathers, and if that is true there will plenty of payment due for a long time. I don't believe that such atrocities can happen without there being some kind of negative reaction and consequence for those making them happen. I believe God is in control of this ship, but free will means that those of us who got a ticket to ride on planet Earth have a lot of leeway in what we can do on this ship, and I think that whether it's obviously apparent or not, that everything any person does to impact the world around them creates a chain reaction of cause and effect that ultimately brings about whatever they put out into the Universe back onto themself. So I do not believe that what China is doing is something they can sustain. With the Foxconn suicides, the absolutely horrendous pollution, and child exploitation, those who promote such evils in this world should beware their just due, and should not expect that their bad deeds will be lacking in consequence just because they are above the law. Human rights are not endowed by the state, and I do not doubt that there will come a day where this will hit the oppressors like a ton of bricks when the needs of the many become neglected enough that the wants of the few are no longer enough to keep things in check.

As for the metaphor of my story, I think you touched upon it pretty well. Another chain reaction of cause and effect. A seemingly innocuous decision leads to a string of decisions, each in and of itself seeming to be most appropriate, which ultimately lead to consequences that could not have possibly been predicted. In this case the only negative aspect was that I lost a small portion of my day to something I had not planned on. There are positive aspects too, such as this discussion it has lead to. But if we are going to continue the metaphor, that I was literally halted, boxed in, with a 5 story concrete wall to one side, countless cars in every direction, helicoptors overhead, a convoy of all sorts of undercover establishment vehicles, and me being completely powerless to do anything except be at the mercy of the situation... the powerlessness is something to consider. I am only one person, as are you, as is your friend who wrote the Walking Dead. As much as I feel in control of my life and my destiny, maybe that is an illusion, or maybe that's only true as long as I don't encounter a force more powerful than my own. Thankfully I am not in the driver seat, but am hitchhiking with my Lord and Savior, so I don't have any need to worry on the road of life or about my own abilities, but it gives a cautious reminder that making decisions haphazardly can have unintended and undesirable outcomes, and it never hurts to do extra planning. Yesterday the world was still turning, but if I had to deal with being surrounded by zombies who just lost their welfare checks instead of just a bunch of regular commuters, boy would I have been in for a rude awakening. I was definitely not prepared to defend myself. I do not carry in public, but I am faithful that whatever situation I encounter that if something is going to happen that could interfere with God's plan that He would circumvent the possibility of someone else's free will reaching a decision point to have that impact, and as may come to no surprise I am pretty confident in ability of persuasion. Still, you can't necessarily expect zombies and meth addicts (huge problem here unfortunately) to listen to even the soundest of reason, especially when the conclusion is not what someone wants to hear.

I am a huge fan of Tolkien's writing, and Jackson's ability to capture the essence of the novels in film was A+. As a Christian author, I find no surprise in his words speaking to your spirit. The all seeing eye of Sauron, atop the tower, a metaphor from a time most people were not alive yet the truth stands the test of time as here we are witnessing the US turn into Mordor. Tolkien, who started writing the story before WWII and was heavily influenced by his own experiencees in WW1, wrote a portion of LOTR during WWII for his son who was overseas. I'm sure we could have a lengthy analysis of all the correlations in the story to history and how they are still relevant today. I love the culmination of the story too. Even when all hope is lost, 2 of the most unlikely of heroes find a way to do what no one else could do and thwart the instrument of oppression and destruction in middle Earth.

I haven't seen a lot of the Walking Dead but in what I did see I definitely got a sense of the struggle for humanity. The zombies have had their humanity taken from them, but even the people struggle to be human too as they are put into difficult situations where you would think having zombies around would unify them, but it doesn't. You still have a group of protagonists and a group of antagonists who can't band together for a common cause even in the end of days, still seeking their own personal desires above all else. Sadly I feel this is how it will be. I think your friend has a very astute mind to put together the story the way he did, and it's too bad (yet not surprising) to hear that the big boys are trying to step on him. That he is walking the walk instead of foaming at the mouth in this situation is admirable, and I trust that because he is taking the high road that he will be a safe distance away from those boots.

[neilgin1]

Flex (and others reading)
before I give you the response your thoughts deserve. ( I got to sleep first) let me just share one more "sign" I just picked up on ZH, its MOST disturbing...because its HERE....

for some reason, I cant cut and paste the body of this piece......but people are fighting over chicken in American grocery stores

here's the URL, if anybody can cut and paste both the words and post the chart and 50 second video, that might be good:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-2 ... cord-highs

n.

[neilgin1]

I won't be able to watch these new videos for a little bit still, but I can at least comment on the other! It's strange how easy it seems to forget that China's rise to an economic powerhouse was not ingenuity, was not shrewd capitalism, was not providing a good or service that someone else could not provide. No, they simply have the most advanced and "successful" child and human labor exploitation system. Their rise to power has been on the backs of the poor. I don't really see any good guys in this global chess game, but its been said that sons pay for the sins of their fathers, and if that is true there will plenty of payment due for a long time. I don't believe that such atrocities can happen without there being some kind of negative reaction and consequence for those making them happen. I believe God is in control of this ship, but free will means that those of us who got a ticket to ride on planet Earth have a lot of leeway in what we can do on this ship, and I think that whether it's obviously apparent or not, that everything any person does to impact the world around them creates a chain reaction of cause and effect that ultimately brings about whatever they put out into the Universe back onto themself. So I do not believe that what China is doing is something they can sustain. With the Foxconn suicides, the absolutely horrendous pollution, and child exploitation, those who promote such evils in this world should beware their just due, and should not expect that their bad deeds will be lacking in consequence just because they are above the law. Human rights are not endowed by the state, and I do not doubt that there will come a day where this will hit the oppressors like a ton of bricks when the needs of the many become neglected enough that the wants of the few are no longer enough to keep things in check.

As for the metaphor of my story, I think you touched upon it pretty well. Another chain reaction of cause and effect. A seemingly innocuous decision leads to a string of decisions, each in and of itself seeming to be most appropriate, which ultimately lead to consequences that could not have possibly been predicted. In this case the only negative aspect was that I lost a small portion of my day to something I had not planned on. There are positive aspects too, such as this discussion it has lead to. But if we are going to continue the metaphor, that I was literally halted, boxed in, with a 5 story concrete wall to one side, countless cars in every direction, helicoptors overhead, a convoy of all sorts of undercover establishment vehicles, and me being completely powerless to do anything except be at the mercy of the situation... the powerlessness is something to consider. I am only one person, as are you, as is your friend who wrote the Walking Dead. As much as I feel in control of my life and my destiny, maybe that is an illusion, or maybe that's only true as long as I don't encounter a force more powerful than my own. Thankfully I am not in the driver seat, but am hitchhiking with my Lord and Savior, so I don't have any need to worry on the road of life or about my own abilities, but it gives a cautious reminder that making decisions haphazardly can have unintended and undesirable outcomes, and it never hurts to do extra planning. Yesterday the world was still turning, but if I had to deal with being surrounded by zombies who just lost their welfare checks instead of just a bunch of regular commuters, boy would I have been in for a rude awakening. I was definitely not prepared to defend myself. I do not carry in public, but I am faithful that whatever situation I encounter that if something is going to happen that could interfere with God's plan that He would circumvent the possibility of someone else's free will reaching a decision point to have that impact, and as may come to no surprise I am pretty confident in ability of persuasion. Still, you can't necessarily expect zombies and meth addicts (huge problem here unfortunately) to listen to even the soundest of reason, especially when the conclusion is not what someone wants to hear.

I am a huge fan of Tolkien's writing, and Jackson's ability to capture the essence of the novels in film was A+. As a Christian author, I find no surprise in his words speaking to your spirit. The all seeing eye of Sauron, atop the tower, a metaphor from a time most people were not alive yet the truth stands the test of time as here we are witnessing the US turn into Mordor. Tolkien, who started writing the story before WWII and was heavily influenced by his own experiencees in WW1, wrote a portion of LOTR during WWII for his son who was overseas. I'm sure we could have a lengthy analysis of all the correlations in the story to history and how they are still relevant today. I love the culmination of the story too. Even when all hope is lost, 2 of the most unlikely of heroes find a way to do what no one else could do and thwart the instrument of oppression and destruction in middle Earth.

I haven't seen a lot of the Walking Dead but in what I did see I definitely got a sense of the struggle for humanity. The zombies have had their humanity taken from them, but even the people struggle to be human too as they are put into difficult situations where you would think having zombies around would unify them, but it doesn't. You still have a group of protagonists and a group of antagonists who can't band together for a common cause even in the end of days, still seeking their own personal desires above all else. Sadly I feel this is how it will be..

Dear Flex
0530 AM Friday 25 Sep 2015....
forgive me if I excised some of your writing/quotes, not because they aren't important, but to save bandwidth.......but i'll you what, you made a spot on post.

with the Peoples Republic of China

" No, they simply have the most advanced and "successful" child and human labor exploitation system. Their rise to power has been on the backs of the poor. I don't really see any good guys in this global chess game,"

Truth.

as for your "route A or Route B" story:

"As for the metaphor of my story............But if we are going to continue the metaphor, that I was literally halted, boxed in, with a 5 story concrete wall to one side, countless cars in every direction, helicoptors overhead, a convoy of all sorts of undercover establishment vehicles, and me being completely powerless to do anything except be at the mercy of the situation... the powerlessness is something to consider. I am only one person, as are you"


absolute truth......y'know.....IF, as individuals, we can somehow free ourselves from the bondage of the fear of death, THEN, we have power, and I am NOT talking about some bizarre "kamikaze" headspace, or any such foolishness....what happened to me, in 2008, was being told while on a hospital gurney, i was told by the doc, I had a 50/50 chance of surviving a bad malady, and you'll understand my language, but i had a supernatural Baptism in the Holy Spirit RIGHT THERE, and i was filled with Joy, man they must of thought i flipped my cap, i was smiling, as i was talking to the Lord, just like Paul did in Philippians'.....paraphrase, "you want Home, i'm there, you want to stay here, i'm there"...it was a glorious moment, and i sure scared the heck out of some poor mainline denomination "chaplain"...poor lil fella....."thorn in my flesh", but i'm still here, Fire Baptized though.

But you gotta be, coz there is a bad wind a blowing, the news yesterday was pretty bizarre. Poor Janet Yellen almost keels over during testimony, but that's just surface dressing.

this foolishness we got ourselves into in Syria, because both the Sa-udi Kingdom and the Qatari's "ordered" us to clear Syria , meaning to bounce that secular pan-arabist, Baathist Socialist Assad from power, so they can build a nat gas pipeline thru Syria, into Turkey to tap into the Euro feed.....its part of the whole deal, we supply the bayonets, and they buttress up the petro-dollar....some mutual back washing there.

Well just in the past 24 hours, joining the Russians who are know IN COUNTRY, said country being Syria, probably have in Tartus, THE main Russian naval base, a Chinese combat naval vessel, which transited the Suez on Tuesday.....i pick up this item about 45 minutes ago:'
"China Set To Deploy Nuclear Sub That Can Hit US Mainland Targets, Pentagon Says"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-2 ... tagon-says

AND i got this yesterday (the source is NOT the PLA, but where there's smoke...........)

"Chinese Military Personnel, "Aerial Assets" Allegedly En Route To Syria"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-2 ... oute-syria

i guess we should remember the word..."allegedly".

so, huge geopolitical chess pieces are moving, and i say brothers, if your stack is good, you might want to focus on foodstocks, and lead.

Flex, you also wrote:

"Yesterday the world was still turning, but if I had to deal with being surrounded by zombies who just lost their welfare checks instead of just a bunch of regular commuters, boy would I have been in for a rude awakening. I was definitely not prepared to defend myself. I do not carry in public, but I am faithful that whatever situation I encounter that if something is going to happen that could interfere with God's plan that He would circumvent the possibility of someone else's free will reaching a decision point to have that impact, and as may come to no surprise I am pretty confident in ability of persuasion. Still, you can't necessarily expect zombies and meth addicts (huge problem here unfortunately) to listen to even the soundest of reason, especially when the conclusion is not what someone wants to hear."


to all the writing i bold faced........Thank God,that wasn't the situation for you! i don't carry here around here, coz its KIND of like Tolkien's "Shire"....i could get my concealed permit TODAY, but i know plenty of fellows that have it, and some of them that have it, i think they have their heads glued on wrong in this matter....meaning they might think, that if you withdraw a sidearm, and wave it around, the bad guy or guys will squeak, "eek", and turn tail....that is just plain foolish thinking. IF, God forbid, you ever have to withdraw a sidearm in a FOR SURE situation, where you ascertain, you're life or others is in peril, you best already have targets A, B, C picked out, and when that sidearm comes out, you best be discharging that weapon in less than one second, without emotion and just cold hearted, and when the smoke clears, you better have made a sound tactical decision.....and my feeling is, in a rural county that is sane and sober (fairly) like i live in, if things go bat shite crazy, i;m just going to carry, and a LOT more than just a sidearm....no joke....our state is INTENSELY pro-2nd Amendment, but as i said before i cant even recall, when anybody was shot or murdered, except the odd hunting accident.

Now thankfully, we don't have a HUGE meth problem (or heroin) but its around, and unlike the cities/suburbs, the 1 per center's cause a few problems, which make head line news in our small newspapers, and just last week, three late 20 something males, all BIG boys, stole a corvette from some regular guy, and led the next county deputies, on a midnight high speed car chase, thru these gravels roads....thankfully, these idiots got run into a field and apprehended. Now they have been up to no good for a while, they're meth heads, who steal cars, tractors, equipment,tools...you name it, i had clipped the article and put it in a notebook i keep, its got pictures, names and towns these zombies live in. Last night, i stopped down in the nearest town, couple miles away, pop 600, and saw a jailkeep i know(he hunts the ridge i live on) and he told me, that one of them unfortunately failed in an attempt to hang himself, and that one is now in a pysch facility, the other two were actually bonded out, $2500 a piece. i was shocked and furious....the jail keep was as well.....high speed late night car chases on back country roads?....miracle a deputy wasn't hurt, and now two of this habitual offenders are running around the tri county area, because of some limp-wristed Judge?

alright, enough of my caterwauling......i got hit the chore list, be well brother, neil