Realcent.org

Something to ponder...

http://www.kitco.com/ind/hamilton/mar112011.html

His previous article last November:

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/silvtop.htm

From what I gather, the author believes that GOLD will be topping out before the SILVER correction. Strong GOLD will lead SILVER higher, even if SILVER is overbought.

I was going to post this link as a reply to your earlier epbeat one, but figured why rain on your parade?

beauanderos wrote:I was going to post this link as a reply to your earlier epbeat one, but figured why rain on your parade?

What do you think about what he says? Pretty good factual material I think.

Mauk13 turned me on to a good deal at our flea market this morning.

I bought 23 halves at 11.00 ea. The guy I bought them from is a local who we do business often. We were both in stunned amazement that he could sell out at 22 times face and how that was a great buy.

Reality check is coming. I'm not afraid to hold for a year or two or five. But I'm preparing to sell a portion (10-20%)of the Thogey hoard. It's really wierd that you can scoop up a handful of silver coins and that's 1000 dollars!....If I could just find a good use for the proceeds. Preps maybe. You see that's the dilemma. Trade silver for FRNs. Then what?

Thogey wrote:Reality check is coming. I'm not afraid to hold for a year or two or five. But I'm preparing to sell a portion (10-20%)of the Thogey hoard. It's really wierd that you can scoop up a handful of silver coins and that 1000 dollars!....If I could just find a good use for the proceeds. Preps maybe. You see that's the dilemma. Trade silver for FRNs. Then what?

Yeah thats the problem.....
Do I want more stocks....NO.
Do I want to pay an arm and a leg for silver....NO.
Are CD's a good place to park loot....NO.
Do I like holding larger amounts of wealth in FRN cash.....NO.

What's a guy to do?

make sure and read his original "silver toppings" article from back in november

he was worried about a huge correction then

Rodebaugh wrote:

Thogey wrote:Reality check is coming. I'm not afraid to hold for a year or two or five. But I'm preparing to sell a portion (10-20%)of the Thogey hoard. It's really wierd that you can scoop up a handful of silver coins and that 1000 dollars!....If I could just find a good use for the proceeds. Preps maybe. You see that's the dilemma. Trade silver for FRNs. Then what?

Yeah thats the problem.....
Do I want more stocks....NO.
Do I want to pay an arm and a leg for silver....NO.
Are CD's a good place to park loot....NO.
Do I like holding larger amounts of wealth in FRN cash.....NO.

What's a guy to do?

Silver is not an investment. It is money. Save your money in the form of precious metals until you need to buy something or pay down some debt, then convert it back to worthless fiat. I personally think a silver price explosion (multiples of what we've seen so far) will occur sooner than TSHTF, thus my plan is to hold on for the ride, cash out SOME at much higher levels then now... and THEN prep (in depth). I do have food and water covered now, but down the road I'd like to pick up a truck and some property well-suited to a bug-out shelter. I am not, however, willing to park money in those someday plans at today's levels... the opportunity cost is too high. You can look back at that thread someone revived from last fall and see that everyone had similar concerns at that time, and the same issues will plague us when silver is triple digits and still climbing. If the financial system collapses via severe dollar devaluation, then it is likely that you could lose 90 percent of your dollar denominated assets, while precious metals would demonstrate a commensurate 90 percent rise in value. Crunch your own numbers, can you sleep at night? Got silver?

Well Ray,

That's how I see it. The only reason I'm not totally freaking out is that I bought the first 100 pounds at under 10 per oz.

Things were a lot more stable then and it seemed like silver was money. Now it seems like Oprah mainstream, beanie baby, 14th century tulip bulb, dot com, 2003 real estate hot hot hot!

A very wise man told me to sell things when people want to buy and buy things when people want to sell.

I too am betting on a monetary breakdown. But there's a lot of eggs in the silver basket for a lot of us.

We may be wrong. What's wrong with selling a little? LOL... I thought the same at 12.5 X face.

Looks like it took 2 years to recover from the upleg tops after the corrections

Thogey wrote:Well Ray,

That's how I see it. The only reason I'm not totally freaking out is that I bought the first 100 pounds at under 10 per oz.

Things were a lot more stable then and it seemed like silver was money. Now it seems like Oprah mainstream, beanie baby, 14th century tulip bulb, dot com, 2003 real estate hot hot hot!

A very wise man told me to sell things when people want to buy and buy things when people want to sell.

I too am betting on a monetary breakdown. But there's a lot of eggs in the silver basket for a lot of us.

We may be wrong. What's wrong with selling a little? LOL... I thought the same at 12.5 X face.

Nothing wrong at all with selling off a portion, 10 - 20%, not a problem, just don't eliminate your entire core position. The question I was trying to address was is there a better investment right now then silver? I really don't think so, but each person needs to make up their own mind based on their personal situations. I, for instance, am by myself, no family to concern myself with. So my risk tolerance is higher. Is this a mania? I don't think so. There are at least two forces impelling silver higher, one being the fundamentals of the silver picture ie supply/demand/shorts filling, the other being the dollars continuing drop. As each force exerts more influence on the price, it is likely to accelerate in its rise. It has barely started yet, and force one will only strengthen while force two exerts even greater impact with ongoing quantitative easing... which is not going to go away.

Although such historical research has its place, the problem is that such data assumes that the environment in which the bullion is bought/sold is constant. This is perhaps a bit short-sighted. America is rapidly changing so dramatically that continuity in context is unlikely. And this is shift is more than just economics; it is moral, political, and cultural. Let me explain. Seven years ago I told my wife that there would be a massive housing bubble coming, but not only for the reasons at that time discussed by the few. These reasons given were mainly economic in nature; i.e. based on interest rates, ARM's vs.Fixed, etc. Now all of these are important, but they are only part of the story.

My reasoning was based on the fact that prior generations of Americans bought homes in the context of married families with a man and woman. Post the legal, cultural change of the 1960's and 70's, more and more young people forego marriage, and if they do contract such; they are more than willing to forsake it. In the 1990's, changes in the way two people (not necessarily husband and wife, or even opposite sexes) were qualified for a home loan kicked in due to "non-discrimination". No longer could loan agents take into consideration a stable married life (or a stable single one for those who did not have a partner). Instead, two people who desired to obtain a loan together were considered soley based on their work history, credit, etc. This left open the door for the massive defaults when these "relationships" went sour. You will not read about this in the news; it is just not politcally correct enough to cut the muster. And no it does not tell the whole story, but it is a piece of the pie deliberately ignored.

Looking for trends in investing anything comparing "Old America" (pre-2008) with what I call "New America" (post 2008) is comparing apples with oranges. Both are fruit, but differences remain. My main concern regarding silver "melting down" in price is when a possible re-evaluation in price is done based on the new global or regional currency which will possibly be introduced in the coming years.

Thogey wrote:Well Ray,

That's how I see it. The only reason I'm not totally freaking out is that I bought the first 100 pounds at under 10 per oz.

Things were a lot more stable then and it seemed like silver was money. Now it seems like Oprah mainstream, beanie baby, 14th century tulip bulb, dot com, 2003 real estate hot hot hot!

A very wise man told me to sell things when people want to buy and buy things when people want to sell...

Yeah, I try to think along those lines too- but my tipping point to sell is closer to when it becomes "common knowledge" that owning silver / gold is a good thing- just like the dot com or housing busts- just before the end everyone "knew" that you made money with internet stocks or buying a house. Right now it seems there are still plenty of people who want to sell gold, based on all the "cash for gold" and "travelling treasure show" things going on.

It's possible the top may be in. NOT very likely, but possible. Dollar cost averaging works both ways - when buying and selling. Before the tragic boating accident in which I lost all my PM's, I had managed to get my basis to ZERO in them. It made the volatility a lot easier to bear, although the pain of losing them in the boating accident was not lessened a bit... but YMMV.

People should consider selling periodically - perhaps 10 /20 % every time a new threshold is met ($30, $35, $40....?) Or create your own "steps", but you've GOT to have a plan to get out as well. There is no road map showing WTSHTF a few months before we get there. Heck, we could already be there and folks just haven't recognized it. Bought your KI tablets yet? If not, don't wait much longer...

There is a LOT going on right now, not much of it good. The world's #3 economy, one that holds one of the larger legitimate pieces of our Nation's debt, is in chaos. (I say legitimate - as I don't believe the portion of the debt which the FED is holding to be legitimate... Japan actually worked and earned the money they loaned us, as opposed to creating it out of thin air as the FED has done...) But anyway - first the EARTHQUAKE. Then the TSUNAMI. Then the NUCLEAR EVENTS. Now a VOLCANO.

Look at this map.http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250 FYI - the 40 degree latitude out of Japan is about where you want to focus on. (See above about KI tablets...)

What affected the price of silver in 2008 will slam it down again, it's just a matter of time. (The events in Japan may indicate this time is *already* here, unfortunately...) The downturn that started in 2008, which has been put in slow motion through the questionable practices of ours (and others) central banks - won't buy us time forever. Sure, silver will again rise from there, but how fast? Will you need FRN's before it gets to where you want it to go? Can you ride out another 2008 crash without cashing in? Do you think someone is going to sell you that bugout property, when they need CASH, and all that you have is silver eagles (which are going for $15 at that point again...)?

If people are looking for somewhere to park FRN's, and it sounds like several folks are - you should be buying JUNK LAND somewhere that you can realistically get to, often enough to work on it in the days/weeks/months (or even years?) ahead. If you're in VA, don't buy it in WA, and vise-versa. The idea of successfully "bugging out" LONG DISTANCE is a Yuppie dream, on par with "real estate and the market always go up"! The junk land will need to be cleaned or cleared. The area where you are going to garden will need fertilized, and honestly, if you don't have at least a season working the land (more is better), you'll regret it unless you are VERY lucky. Fallout shelters, cabins, machine sheds, etc. don't erect themselves overnight, etc. etc. And if you waiting to move your stock of PM's, guns/ammo, water, food, supplies, family, etc. AFTER TSHTF, chances are HIGH it won't matter WHERE you sold your PM's at, as you are simply screwed at that point in time.

Honestly, I'm a little blown away that people who appear to be preppers don't know where to park some profits from their metals. Don't be stupid like me and put them in the bottom of the lake. And don't be stupid like the masses and wait until it's too late. If you think the whole thing is going up in smoke at some point, unless you're Amish, you've got a LOT of ground to cover. And even if you're Amish, you probably don't have the arsenel, food stock, commo, NBC, etc. etc. that you will WANT / need when that fateful day arrives.

Make no mistake about it, that fateful day is coming. Along with $50 silver, and sub $20 silver as well...

Perhaps the events in Japan are the trigger which leads to a nice buying point, if nothing else, I guess time will tell. The markets in the far east open in a few hours, it will be interesting to watch the Asian equities markets.

Country wrote:

beauanderos wrote:I was going to post this link as a reply to your earlier epbeat one, but figured why rain on your parade?

What do you think about what he says? Pretty good factual material I think.

Ok, so what do I think? Taking advantage of the insight provided by the author and contributors to this thread... I think that what Adam Hamilton proposes (and I subscribe to some of his publications) is usually dead on. However, hindsight is perfect, and anyone can make a compelling argument, based on written in stone data, that future events will replicate those that preceded them. I don't think this is the case anymore, and that is based upon the constantly shifting socioeconomic environment in which we find ourselves amidst. I think that Hamilton's data reveal strong trends likely to re-emerge given similar data points, and yet the catalyst for the points themselves is mutating. So, in toto, I would surmise that his argument is strong, yet not infallible, there is a good likelihood that a pullback is due, but the size and duration are subject to debate, and that arguments such as his influence only those people willing to assume no external forces of change are presently causing a ripple effect upon the underlying trend. Now then, when thousands of investors buy into his premise, and sell accordingly, sure, such a thesis as his can have lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy... but how many investors are waking up and beginning to think outside of the box, thereby in part nullifying the effect of the other investors who acted? I think that the impact of his expected correction will not be as great as in prior pullbacks, neither in magnitude nor duration. I am positioned to "ride-it-out" and while admitting that, honestly, the day to day changes can cause me to really cringe at times, would prefer to sit on my hoard than try to increase it's size by suspect timing maneuvers. I worry more that, rather then allowing an acknowledged "profit" at peaks when buyers are nervous if you were to sell a portion of your holdings (picture the waves receding before the tsunami.. "oh, the price hit a high and is dropping again, I better take a profit' and people running to sell) that if I were to do so, that when the tsunami (old buyers, new buyers attracted by momentum) returns with a vengeance... that I wouldn't even be able to source silver because of the rapid re-entry of buyers all scrambling for safe haven at higher ground. I don't know what outcome the effect of the Japanese acts of God will produce, they may be stimulative of their economy... but at what cost? All I can say is observe and learn, different scenarios equally disastrous are likely to play out, in time, all about the globe.

This near-parabolic rise is astounding to me. There are many scenarios that could play out: is silver reaching its actual value, after having been suppressed for 30 years? Or is this a bubble? As I have no current position is silver(other than a very long term physical hoard), I am attempting to look at it objectively. I could see silver staying flat, bursting to $50, or bursting to $25! The charts are showing that silver should extend its run, but sense is telling me that silver needs to take correct. I am hoping for a big correction, in which case I will buy AGQ. But I don't have the guts to short silver.
And I think we could finally see a big correction after this equally astonishing run in the stock market. The charts are getting more bearish every day.
Whats an investor to do?